Northeren Hurricane Watch 2011

Now it seems we have a whole new wave of stuff to watch.

Yesterday I did my usual stop at the National Hurricane Center website and a new low had come off the African coast. I did not think too much about it as this type of thing happens all the time, however after taking a peek tonight to see if there was any progression on this low I saw another new low had formed right ahead of the one I was watching.

The waters in the Atlantic are still in the mid 80's and higher so I think we will see a very good chance of one or possibly both actually forming into a Tropical Storm. Just something to keep an eye on.

and things are getting more interesting as each day passes.

There are now 3 low pressure systems out in the Atlantic. The third appeared today on the National Hurricane Center site and this one is ahead of yesterdays new low. That being said, it appears that the system closest to the African coast is already breaking up some as it has become less organized.

Update: Our 3 Lows have now turned into one low which seems to have a very high chance of forming into our next named storm of the season. My best guess is within the next 48 hours it will form into a Tropical Storm.

Update: That low I have been watching is now Tropical Storm Ophelia. Below is the current 5 day tracking.

Ophelia tracking

UPDATE:

Current tracking on TS Ophelia suggest that this storm will follow a much similar path as the last few storms and stay out to sea.

The main reason for my update in this thread is due to some recent activity in the Atlantic. We had a new organized low pressure system appear off the coast of Africa around 10pm CST. When it appeared on the National Hurricane Center website it showed an 80% chance of forming into a Tropical Depression within the next 48 hours. 6 1/2 hours later it is now labeled as Tropical Depression 17. It has formed up much faster than anticipated and is certainly one to keep a close eye on.

NOAA

UPDATE:

Ophelia appears to have begun making her turn to the North which will keep her at sea. As of right now, only one model has her continuing to the West into the Bahamas (GFS model), but I believe that model will be updated shortly showing a Northern Turn.

The storm system I posted on early this morning has not formed into Tropical Storm Phillipe. I will say again, much like this morning, this is one to keep an eye on in my opinion. This thing has formed up very quickly and is expected to be a Cat 1 storm by Monday afternoon. Current winds are 40 mph which makes it a weak Tropical Storm. All the early models show a very early and sharp turn to the North which will keep it at sea, but as most know I do not put a ton of stock into early models.

There has also been a low pressure system that has been ahead of Ophelia. I have noticed it all week. It will begin to form, but very quickly break apart. Then a few days later, it will begin to organize again, then fall back apart. Normally I would not even mention it, however this low has begun to show signs of organization, and this low now sits right off the coast of South Florida. It currently has a 40% chance to develop over the next 48 hours. It is moving North at around 15 mph.

reply to post by MrWendal


Thanks for the update - I
was following Ophelia until
today and was convinced
it would steer north. Phillipe
does look like one to keep
a close eye on.

Was wondering what weather
site you like the best.

reply to post by crazydaisy


When it comes to hurricane info I look to the National Hurricane Center and Weather Underground. I completely ignore the weather channel for any serious weather patterns. I live in a hurricane prone area and I trust projections from Weather Underground. They also have a very active and educated forum. That being said, when a hurricane is headed towards my area, Weather Underground has been as accurate as anything I could hope for. I base my decisions about evacuating or staying based on their projections and they have never let me down. I find the information from the Weather Channel to be a lot of fear mongering more than anything else. Had I listened to the Weather Channel, I would have evacuated for Hurricane Gustav which for my area was really nothing more than a strong thunderstorm, and evacuating cost money. However Weather Underground was right on the money for Gustav, Rita, Ike and everything else. In a lot of ways I trust their forums with my life and not once have I ever regretted it, but I also base a lot of my decisions on my own personal experience as well. Nothing beats experience.

There was a few minutes of outage from Malaysia's sole satellite TV provider, ASTRO at 4pm (+8 hours GMT) about 45 minutes ago. The message was "Solar interuption and etc" which was kind of 1st I've ever encountered. I'm not sure if it was due to the spike in solar activity in last few days.

I wonder if Philippe will be something to watch?

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Just went to www.stormpulse.com... and I think Phillippe warrants watching. Most of the models show it veering toward the
US east coast. If it holds together in the environment it is expected to reach hurricane strength.

Late in the season I know, but we still have a new hurricane...RINA

000
WTNT33 KNHC 241814
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED...

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by lasertaglover


Rina That's Just Spooky! Personally, I think they should have done away with any name or part that end in rina -let us not forget KatRINA - chills

I agree, Rina is just too creepy. Seems most
of the future forecast models have it veering toward
southern Florida as of right now. One to keep
a close eye on.

reply to post by crazydaisy


Wow, the forecast when I posted ealier was for Rina to just keep heading due west.

That super sharp turn towards Florida does not look good. Already at Hurricane strength.

?

A Hurricane 2 already - models are going all
directions but still looks like it might turn
north east.

www.stormpulse.com...

reply to post by crazydaisy


It's a wild one for sure. The wind forecast models have it hitting 120 mph right now, but everything keeps changing quite a bit with each update.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

The latest track is simply nuts.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by lasertaglover


It is crazy alright, I don't think
they know the direction. Its
good that it has been down
graded but it could intensify
again once it gets in the open
water.

reply to post by crazydaisy


First it was due west, than may be south Florida, than Cuba, than back up towards Florida, and now doing a complete 180 north than south!!

But you are right, at least it has weakened.

Weird storm, eh? Came out of nowhere, got strong really quick, and than its really odd projected paths.