Northeren Hurricane Watch 2011

Weather Underground has a very active community in the comment section of the blog entries by Dr. Masters' WunderBlog.



Katia noodles

Originally posted by crappiekat
reply to post by MrWendal

 

Its not gonna be a problem. Chill, there are more to come.

I did not say it was a problem. I simply said the storm is expected to turn, however this storm has actually done nothing that was projected thus far. So umm... what are you talking about?

reply to post by MrWendal


My apologizes for being snippy. I have no knowledge in meteorogy[sp] I have been watching this on the weather channel. and it seems to be doing what the computers are saying. I wish no ill will to anyone. It seems to me to be a non event. I hope the weather channel and me are right.

Katia is now a category 3 hurricane.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 63.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

I hope it stays far from the east coast...

On the heels of Katia we have another wave coming.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d35ad0aec75b.png[/atsimg]

Well we have established that I just suck at trying to post pics from other sites, so I am just adding this link of the model with projected possible paths of the system that Jack has posted that is just coming off the African coast.

Model

That being said, I feel like we have seen this before as there is also a new low forming in the Gulf of Mexico again as well. Didnt we just go through this a couple weeks ago?

Well our wave has now turned into tropical depression 14.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 37.0W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1650 MI...2655 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/1235bb8e28f2.png[/atsimg]

reply to post by JackBauer


Take a peek at the National Hurricane Center website. Not only do we have this tropical depression off the coast of Africa, but there is another disturbance ahead of it and to the south as well as a new one in the Gulf of Mexico.

Update:

Hurricane Katia appears that she will take a turn back out to the Atlantic. It will not effect the U.S at all which should be good news for the Northeastern part of the country.

Tropical Depression 14 has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Maria. The 5 day projection on this storm suggest it will make it's way into the Caribbean effecting the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico before turning North towards the U.S. Please remember a lot can happen in 5 days and these storms can turn again. I am saying this will hit the US mainland, just that it is possible and people should keep an eye on it.

System #3 that I have been watching in the Gulf is now known as Tropical Storm Nate. This storm is expect to turn and make landfall in Mexico as a Cat 1 hurricane. However that is based on a few different factors so I am not totally convinced at this time. Worth watching for Gulf State residents.

reply to post by MrWendal


Thank you for your reports MrWendal

Wish one of those storms would hit Texas, do you know they have had 300 days of fire? That's almost a whole year!
They need rain badly!

reply to post by MrWendal


Thank you for the update on the tropics.
Very good to know Katia is veering out
to sea. Will keep an eye on the other
storms for possible development. Getting
a little busier I see.

Maria still maintaining a southerly track, and nate becoming uncertain on where he wants to go. Hopefully texas, they could use a good soaker.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/084e0f1f9118.png[/atsimg]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/af9f2dbf1767.png[/atsimg]

reply to post by JackBauer


That Nate model is not the one I saw today from Weather Underground. It actually looks like the TS Lee model. The 2pm models only had one that went towards the US and that was the GFS model which at 8pm has been updated and now all models show a turn directly into Mexico.

current computer models as of 8pm today

My hopes are for this storm to move more towards the North before making a Western turn. That would at least put this storm into Southern Texas. Which according to this 5 day forecast is still a possibility.

5 day forcast

Now one thing to note... the current computer models and the 5 day projected tracking does not match up at all.

As of 10pm all maps and tracking have been updated. The current tracking shows that Nate will make a sharp turn right into Mexico as a Cat 2

Yeah nate is definitely going into mexico, and katia is scooting away from land. That leaves maria as the main threat, and it looks like she may travel the east coast.

Seems to me Maria is SURE to hit land... the only question is, at what force will it hit... simple storm? Tropical storm? Hurricane?

For now I think it's gonna be weak.

Yes it seems Maria is veering right
toward the US east coast. Texas
could use some rain if it cares to
contribute. I hope it doesn't develop
into a major event.

Actually every computer model on Maria currently has her turning back out to the Atlantic following much the same path as Katia for the exception of NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Prediction Center System) model.

Since I suck at posting the actual images, below is a link to the models per Weather Underground.

Maria Models

Update:

Maria: ALL computer models (NOGAPS included) now have Maria making a turn back out into the Atlantic. 3 Current models stop short only showing the initial turn while the other 3 models are showing a complete turn back out to sea. My guess is this storm will follow a similar path as Katia and will not have an effect on the US mainland.

Maria Models

Nate: Is sitting off the coast of Mexico, but the strengthening that was projected simply did not happen. It seems that the storm is already beginning to weaken and fall apart, which is really quite shocking considering conditions in the Gulf Of Mexico are very favorable. Current projections have this storm making landfall as a Tropical Storm. 3 computer models show a Northern turn which could be good news for Texas and send some rain towards the Southern parts of that State. 3 other models show a southern turn. So at this point it is anyone's guess what will happen, but all models agree that this storm system will fall apart very quickly once making landfall.

Nate Models

Katia: For our friends across the pond, she is headed your way. All models suggest that Katia will continue to weaken down to a tropical storm before brushing along or making landfall around Ireland and the U.K.

Katia Models

UPDATE:

Maria appears to have made her turn and will continue North out at sea and should not effect the US Mainland. However, you might get some decent surf out of it if your on the coast.