Beijing warns US on Taiwan arms

FredT,

Sorry to say, but bringing up hypersonic missiles seems like nothing more than a cheap ploy the win the argument. That's kinda low, don't you think?

Even if your aim is to win this argument, you can't do it by bringing up something that either doesn't fully exist or has been proven capable yet.

Originally posted by Megaquad
Everything is made in China, from computers and furniture to McDonalds toys... Trade embargo on China would cause major economic depression, possibly far worst than that in 1930s. There would also be need to build new production plants in US or some low wage countries like India. Cost of that is huuuge.. Simply impossible.

Actually, no. We import from China only 11%, but they are mostly consumer products so we think everything is made in China. But the fact is Canada and Mexico are our biggest import partners at 18% and 12%. Here is the rank:

Canada 17.8%, Mexico 11.3%, China 11.1%, Japan 10.4%, Germany 5.3%

The good thing about a trade embargo is that we do not export goods to China. It does not make a big portion of out export (less than 2%)

All of China's import partners are pro-West : Japan, South Korea, TAIWAN, and Germany. This could help us if we decide to fight China economicly insteade of militarily.

Yeah i guess we would have to purchase stuff at higher prices than they are right now. But those sweatshops in South Asia are enough if we increase the productions, squeeze everything out of them. I guess Walmart is already ahead of us

[edit on 29-8-2004 by jazzmaster]

Originally posted by jazzmaster
All of China's import partners are pro-West : Japan, South Korea, TAIWAN, and Germany. This could help us if we decide to fight China economicly insteade of militarily.

Yeah i guess we would have to purchase stuff at higher prices than they are right now. But those sweatshops in South Asia are enough if we increase the productions, squeeze everything out of them. I guess Walmart is already ahead of us

In terms of War between US and China, both will be severely weakened. Russia, EU, Japan will be glad to exploit the situation. They will able to determine their policy from their own interest. But for US and China, war will be lose-lose situation. Do you know which nation breaked the embargo after 1989, do you know why?

Originally posted by zcheng

Originally posted by jazzmaster
All of China's import partners are pro-West : Japan, South Korea, TAIWAN, and Germany. This could help us if we decide to fight China economicly insteade of militarily.

Yeah i guess we would have to purchase stuff at higher prices than they are right now. But those sweatshops in South Asia are enough if we increase the productions, squeeze everything out of them. I guess Walmart is already ahead of us

In terms of War between US and China, both will be severely weakened. Russia, EU, Japan will be glad to exploit the situation. They will able to determine their policy from their own interest. But for US and China, war will be lose-lose situation. Do you know which nation breaked the embargo after 1989, do you know why?

If the US ever decided to fight China, this is one of the less painful ways instead of directly fighting. China's economy relies heavily on export, if not everything they do. Without export, China is like another Russia.
The US has enough resources to import from somewhere else with slightly higher purchase prices.
Let's just say India, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and all of those South Asian countries are more than happy to welcome the Americans to their soils. The US only imports from China 11%, not really significant. Do not worry guys, our children will still enjoy the MCDonald's fun toys made from Indonesia. Wal-Mart is already ahead of our US government in establishing sweatshops over there.
There is a little bit of investments in those countriesbut it is already happening.

China on the other hands exports over 22% of their goods to the US but that only is 11% of out total importing goods. China exports to Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea with Hong Kong being the second biggest importer from China after the US. I guess China can import all of their goods to Hong Kong if the trade embargo is established.

The trade embargo back in 89 was lifted because China no longer posed a threat to the world as a communist state. China didn't even export anything out the world, except next-to-nothing cheap labor.
What point are you trying to make?

Originally posted by zcheng

Originally posted by The Vagabond
Wow Westpoint, you must really think China is a pushover. Now they can't take Taiwan? Taiwan has a life expectancy of about 2 weeks without American support.

Without US support, China can take Taiwan in about a week. You have to factor in the fact that not many members in the GUO Jun (National Army) want to fight the PLA, and would surrender at the chance. Although there maybe over 50% people claim themselve as Taiwanese not Chinese, if China allow then to go independent. If facing real war or in the war, the majority would prefer to call themselve as Taiwanese and Chinese as well.

Now... I believe it was Zcheng who said China could take out our carriers with cruise missiles.

The Tomehawk cuise missiles from US is relatively low speed, is subsonic. Due to their low speed, it is quite easy to fend them as a carrier group.

The ones that I think post the greatest danger are those supersonic missiles and intermediate ballistic missiles. They maybe lauched from Subs or inland mobile launch vehicles. Some of these missiles may reach speed 5 Mach, they can fly high in flight, and fly low when approaching target. They may even travel like a snake. If 10 missiles are launched from 10 different locations, and if Carrier can fend off 9, 1 missile can still cripple or even sink the carrier.

Furthermore, you have to consider that the first operations by our B-2s, F-117s, and Tomahawks would be targeting the greatest threat- probably cruise missiles. This means that the danger would be quickly ended.

Not so. Do you remember that even F-117 was shot down by Serbia forces? China, I believe, has some measure to detect these stealth planes. Of course, no one is certain. Very likely, we will find out only in the war. I believe B-2 is sub sonic? If it is detected, its life is finished. How much does one of them cost? 1 Billion?

1 or 2 carriers may be possible to destroy, but the combined defensive power of 7 of them, combined with any systems which may exist to interfere with the guidance of enemy missiles (even North Korea has this ability) means that it is unlikely that an American fleet can be easily destroyed with cruise missiles.

If missile can take out a carrier, 7 carrier did not change much of the equation. China has the ability to build many more missiles quickly, especially those do not need to reach continental USA.

If there were any danger to our fleet, the obvious answer would be to transfer our carrier aircraft into improvised airfields in Japan and Taiwan and operate from land.

This will be dumbest choose. Those airfields that is used to attack Chinese forces will be taken out first. In the first wave, those airfield in Taiwan will be attacked and destroyed, that is why they are now practicing to take off and land on the road in East side of Taiwan island. If Japan is assisting US and allow US planes to use Japanese airfield, those will be the second wave of attack. Okinawa will be the primary target. If Japan join the fight, China will revenge for what they have done at least since 1937.

If Japan also declares all-out war, Japan will be nuked at the first opportunity, much easier than reaching USA. I believe Japan will have a hard choice to make.

China do not want to challenge US dominance around the world. But if US disregard Chinese core strategic interest like Taiwan issue, China will have to challenge US in anyone China can.

The declared policy of China is "Peaceful Rise". I guess if US pushes China to the rock bottom on Taiwan issue, China will have no choice but follow "Armed Rise".

As for a total war- with or without nukes- We'd definately be looking at the end of the American and Chinese governments as we know them today, and Japan would probably be almost forced to militarize and assume greater control of the pacific- perhaps including Taiwan and parts of China- likely with UN approval and support. America would be broke and probably be more than a little out with Canada.

For all-out war, one thing is certain: Japan will be completely destroyed.
What not certain is the degree of destruction of China and US. One advantage of China is the mountaneous terrain. The advantage of US is its large number of nukes, and advanced delivery system. The difference will be whether it is 10%, 20%, or 30% left.

Do not push China too hard. Let US and China be friends, not enemy.

Zcheng you are so messed up in the head....just like that imbecile leader of North Korea. I think most people are tired of your propaganda in every thread. You have 0 credibility and are more than annoying. If your crazy government even launches one missile at a U.S. carrier it is gameover for China. Your ports and airfields will be gone using conventional weapons alone. Essentially you would become a landlocked country. Have fun getting your goods out across the old silk and spice land routes.

China cant even feed its own staggering population...just like North Korea. Where are you going to get your food? You wont be getting it from Russia and India has its own problems and will most likely shut its borders off to China (same as Russia). Your country would be landlocked!!! China would never be able to build the ships necessary to break out of the blockade because all of your ports would be gone and your shipyards destroyed.

All this talk about your super missile is also tiring. In addition to the layers upon layers of defenses built into carrier groups....you have to be able to actually pinpoint carrier locations. You would have to fire your missiles from land because your navy would be gone. It is one thing to hit a stationary target with a missile when you know where the target is but it is entirely different when attempting to hit a fast moving target that will be hundreds of miles off your coast. No navy to pinpoint the carriers...so what are you going to use? Satellite photographs? Haha.

You talk about China attacking Japan. Great idea. Wake a sleeping behemoth. If China ever attacks Japanese cities, it is all over for China. They will rearm so fast and on such a scale that they alone will keep you landlocked for the next few centuries. Japan has the technology and the determination as a nation to be a true military power. That is one country you dont want to piss off.

Lastly, we would have the Brits and the Aussies and Japanese joining us off China's coast. Who would be China's allies? North Korea? France? Hahaha. Both the British and the Australians and Japanese have better navies than China as well as Taiwan. We have the infrastructure in place to operate as if our forces were based out of the U.S. mainland.

China knows it is inferior, that is why there is all of the sabre rattling and bull# threats. We may let you take over Taiwan and we may not...the U.S. will decide what is in our best interests. So far we have told you that it is hands off and you are obeying. If China thought they had a chance they wouldnt threaten the U.S., they would just do what they wanted.

Originally posted by FredT
Sabre rattling. Period. The US should sell Arleigh Burke destryers to Taiwan period. We should open up the pentagon like a WallMart and let Taiwan come shopping for defensive weapons.

Lets not let China get away with vague threats. They should remember that they can't beat us in the air or on the sea. Napoleon had a far superior army to the British but was still defeated. And with air support, we can bomb the Chinese inland. A well placed precision bomb could kill their leader and start a power struggle. They may be able to take out any nation in Asia on land, but what use is that when they'd have to swim across the Pacific to get here? Napoleon wasn't even able to get across the narrow English Channel, so how would the Chinese get to the U.S.? Their threats are no good...we should just ship Taiwan half our nukes and call it good.

Originally posted by jazzmaster
The trade embargo back in 89 was lifted because China no longer posed a threat to the world as a communist state. China didn't even export anything out the world, except next-to-nothing cheap labor.
What point are you trying to make?

My point is that not all major countries will follow US in war between US and China. They will choose according their national interest, and will very much like both US and China weakened.

Originally posted by Shadowtrooper90
Lets not let China get away with vague threats. They should remember that they can't beat us in the air or on the sea. Napoleon had a far superior army to the British but was still defeated. And with air support, we can bomb the Chinese inland. A well placed precision bomb could kill their leader and start a power struggle. They may be able to take out any nation in Asia on land, but what use is that when they'd have to swim across the Pacific to get here? Napoleon wasn't even able to get across the narrow English Channel, so how would the Chinese get to the U.S.? Their threats are no good...we should just ship Taiwan half our nukes and call it good.

You sure think that China do not have similar capabilities in retaliation? In term of WMD in Taiwan, it will only quicken its demise, along with US.

Originally posted by fawlty
Zcheng you are so messed up in the head....just like that imbecile leader of North Korea. I think most people are tired of your propaganda in every thread. You have 0 credibility and are more than annoying. If your crazy government even launches one missile at a U.S. carrier it is gameover for China. Your ports and airfields will be gone using conventional weapons alone. Essentially you would become a landlocked country. Have fun getting your goods out across the old silk and spice land routes.

It will be same thing happening to US. US may have enough nukes to nuke the earth several times. China only have enough nukes and missiles to nuke US once. NY, LA, Wa etc will also become rubbles, in such a war.

Originally posted by zcheng

Originally posted by jazzmaster
The trade embargo back in 89 was lifted because China no longer posed a threat to the world as a communist state. China didn't even export anything out the world, except next-to-nothing cheap labor.
What point are you trying to make?

My point is that not all major countries will follow US in war between US and China. They will choose according their national interest, and will very much like both US and China weakened.

As far as i see, the EU is a a union of independent nations. They do not have the unity as the US does, simply just because each one of them is different. We already have one example back in GWII. Germany, Spain and several other nations eventhough in the EU, they supported the war in Iraq. The EU was against it, but what could they have done?
The EU is just making Europe more connected in terms of traveling, trading, and a common currency. Other than that, each country decides what it wants in its interest.

And Russia. Russia will not be able to climb back into a superpower status just because the US decided to go to war with China. They are struggling to keep their country and economy intact. After the Cold War, Russia declined its superpower status because it no longer can support its military giant and the Soviet was falling apart. Russia now has not enough resources to do anything. What can Russia get out of this?

Also in my opinion, if China was "liberated" from this communist status, investors will benefit a lot from this. Investments will come in a lot more. Right now eventhough China is a hotspot, it is doing little to neutralize relationships between foreigners and local people. China people are taught to see Westerners as invaders and will siege every opportunity to make money. I was in China a while ago for a lecture from Microsoft in Beijing. Some Chinese was not able to approach our hotel rooms. The guards did not say why they were denied access. I may add that there were a few jounalists with us too.

Other countries see this, Chinese cannot because they are living a lie, and this is not a Western propaganda. I have seen this with my own eyes.

[edit on 30-8-2004 by jazzmaster]

Originally posted by zcheng

Originally posted by fawlty
Zcheng you are so messed up in the head....just like that imbecile leader of North Korea. I think most people are tired of your propaganda in every thread. You have 0 credibility and are more than annoying. If your crazy government even launches one missile at a U.S. carrier it is gameover for China. Your ports and airfields will be gone using conventional weapons alone. Essentially you would become a landlocked country. Have fun getting your goods out across the old silk and spice land routes.

It will be same thing happening to US. US may have enough nukes to nuke the earth several times. China only have enough nukes and missiles to nuke US once. NY, LA, Wa etc will also become rubbles, in such a war.

Who said anything about going nuclear? You are the only one eager to use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional war. Chinese leaders want Taiwan so that they can milk it for profit....they wont go nuclear because then it is all over for China. Unlike you, Chinese leaders use a little more rational thought. There wont be a nuclear conflict over a tiny little island off of China. If there is a conflict, it will stay conventional and China will lose sorely. If China ever wants to cease as a country then they can play with their WMD's. Chinese as a race would cease to exist. The American population would kill all chinese in retribution for nuking american cities. China itself would be a deadzone for centuries...nothing would survive there. Chinese everywhere would be massacred...it would be genocide...and rightfully so.

You suck at propaganda Zcheng. Nothing you say is even remotely believable and I pointed that out in my previous post. Only thing you can say is China has some nukes. You dont even consider that using nuclear weapons against the U.S. would spell doom for your country and your people. Luckily you are in no position of power and just one of the many brainwashed masses.

Originally posted by fawlty

Originally posted by zcheng

Originally posted by fawlty
Zcheng you are so messed up in the head....just like that imbecile leader of North Korea. I think most people are tired of your propaganda in every thread. You have 0 credibility and are more than annoying. If your crazy government even launches one missile at a U.S. carrier it is gameover for China. Your ports and airfields will be gone using conventional weapons alone. Essentially you would become a landlocked country. Have fun getting your goods out across the old silk and spice land routes.

It will be same thing happening to US. US may have enough nukes to nuke the earth several times. China only have enough nukes and missiles to nuke US once. NY, LA, Wa etc will also become rubbles, in such a war.

Who said anything about going nuclear? You are the only one eager to use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional war. Chinese leaders want Taiwan so that they can milk it for profit....they wont go nuclear because then it is all over for China. Unlike you, Chinese leaders use a little more rational thought. There wont be a nuclear conflict over a tiny little island off of China. If there is a conflict, it will stay conventional and China will lose sorely. If China ever wants to cease as a country then they can play with their WMD's. Chinese as a race would cease to exist. The American population would kill all chinese in retribution for nuking american cities. China itself would be a deadzone for centuries...nothing would survive there. Chinese everywhere would be massacred...it would be genocide...and rightfully so.

You suck at propaganda Zcheng. Nothing you say is even remotely believable and I pointed that out in my previous post. Only thing you can say is China has some nukes. You dont even consider that using nuclear weapons against the U.S. would spell doom for your country and your people. Luckily you are in no position of power and just one of the many brainwashed masses.

Zcheng does not know much about weapons, that is why he is so proud how his country's nuclear arsenal. Anyone who has a bit of knowledge about weapons will say that nuclear weapons are more of a psychological tool than a weapon. Going nuclear over a small island, that is purely propaganda. China will lose more than it gains if China decided to invade Taiwan. Those infrastructures along China's coast are worth more than Taiwan. Consider how China will defend them without missiles defense system. Tomahawks are launched at nights, Zcheng. Did you see how Iraq was vunerable to those missiles eventhough each corners of their city has like dozens of guns? I bet you didn't see the LIVE coverage of those attacks
China wants only Taiwan's economy. "Territorial Intergrety." Give me a break
I'd say China will go back to a third world country if Zcheng was the leader of China and rightfully so. Zcheng is really hot-temperd. Don't be so proud of your nuclear arsenal, no one else is. It is a pain to maintain them, physically and finacially.

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
FredT,
Sorry to say, but bringing up hypersonic missiles seems like nothing more than a cheap ploy the win the argument. That's kinda low, don't you think?
Even if your aim is to win this argument, you can't do it by bringing up something that either doesn't fully exist or has been proven capable yet.

Try again.. Zcheng sabre rattled about CHiCOm missiles with Mach 5 capacity. I was pointing out that the US was still researching them so its DOUBTFUL the CHICOMS have them. Please read the post again. Thanks oyu...

Originally posted by jazzmaster
Also in my opinion, if China was "liberated" from this communist status, investors will benefit a lot from this. Investments will come in a lot more. Right now eventhough China is a hotspot, it is doing little to neutralize relationships between foreigners and local people. China people are taught to see Westerners as invaders and will siege every opportunity to make money. I was in China a while ago for a lecture from Microsoft in Beijing. Some Chinese was not able to approach our hotel rooms. The guards did not say why they were denied access. I may add that there were a few jounalists with us too.

Great that you visited Beijing, China. I hope you will join us to see the olympic games.

What you described it true, but the reason is false. Many hotels will not allow any people to enter due to security reasons. There are limited public restrooms in Cities, and there are limited signs to find one in the nearest area. Many hotels or shops deny access of their facility for public access.

If you are so concerned with them, why did not you approach them, since they could not enter. I am sure no one will follow you.

Originally posted by fawlty
Who said anything about going nuclear? You are the only one eager to use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional war. Chinese leaders want Taiwan so that they can milk it for profit....they wont go nuclear because then it is all over for China. Unlike you, Chinese leaders use a little more rational thought. There wont be a nuclear conflict over a tiny little island off of China. If there is a conflict, it will stay conventional and China will lose sorely. If China ever wants to cease as a country then they can play with their WMD's. Chinese as a race would cease to exist. The American population would kill all chinese in retribution for nuking american cities. China itself would be a deadzone for centuries...nothing would survive there. Chinese everywhere would be massacred...it would be genocide...and rightfully so.

Did not you ever read the statement by the highest leaders of China on Taiwan? Taiwan is the core interest of China. Nuke or not, All options are on the table to defeat any foreign intervention. In nuke war, both US and China will destroyed. Due to the geographical difference between US and China, I believe China will survive such war, but not for US.

Just do not think you can nuke China, while keep US intact.

You suck at propaganda Zcheng. Nothing you say is even remotely believable and I pointed that out in my previous post. Only thing you can say is China has some nukes. You dont even consider that using nuclear weapons against the U.S. would spell doom for your country and your people. Luckily you are in no position of power and just one of the many brainwashed masses.

Sure. Luckily, even Bush is also wiser to know the severe conquences in war with China.

Originally posted by jazzmaster
Tomahawks are launched at nights, Zcheng. Did you see how Iraq was vunerable to those missiles eventhough each corners of their city has like dozens of guns? I bet you didn't see the LIVE coverage of those attacks
China wants only Taiwan's economy. "Territorial Intergrety." Give me a break
I'd say China will go back to a third world country if Zcheng was the leader of China and rightfully so. Zcheng is really hot-temperd. Don't be so proud of your nuclear arsenal, no one else is. It is a pain to maintain them, physically and finacially.

I saw the "Shock and Awe". Maybe Saddam was in shock, but not for Iraqi people. They are still fighting US invaders courageously.

China is a third world country, the largest developing country. No one deny that.

Iraq has a lot of guns. But how many submarines, missiles, aircraft, nukes, Iraq have?

The points is that if US intervene in Taiwan, there is possibility leading to all-out war between US and China, in which both nations will be destroyed.

Originally posted by zcheng

Originally posted by jazzmaster
Also in my opinion, if China was "liberated" from this communist status, investors will benefit a lot from this. Investments will come in a lot more. Right now eventhough China is a hotspot, it is doing little to neutralize relationships between foreigners and local people. China people are taught to see Westerners as invaders and will siege every opportunity to make money. I was in China a while ago for a lecture from Microsoft in Beijing. Some Chinese was not able to approach our hotel rooms. The guards did not say why they were denied access. I may add that there were a few jounalists with us too.

Great that you visited Beijing, China. I hope you will join us to see the olympic games.

What you described it true, but the reason is false. Many hotels will not allow any people to enter due to security reasons. There are limited public restrooms in Cities, and there are limited signs to find one in the nearest area. Many hotels or shops deny access of their facility for public access.

If you are so concerned with them, why did not you approach them, since they could not enter. I am sure no one will follow you.

Fortunately, they were my Chinese friends and they let me know about the problem they faced, that is why i was aware of this fact. I mentioned that they came to see us, not to use the bathroom, the security guards did not even notify this to us. Foreign journalists might have been the reason why these Chinese were denied access. It happens to a lot of people i know, not just us. Anywhere there is the media, there bounds to be some sort of wall blocking.

[edit on 30-8-2004 by jazzmaster]

Everything about this is a smoke screen. Taiwan simply cannot afford the ships! If Britain cannot even build new ships, how the hell can Taiwain do it??

It is a smokescreen to allow the Chinese to save face at a future date. The Americans will send their battle fleet to the South China Sea. China will get their knickers in a twist and threaten war. All military forces around the world go on red alert. US then offers to stop selling the ships to Taiwan. China agrees. Military forces stand down. America has battle fleet in South China Sea. Everyones happy.

Originally posted by zcheng

Originally posted by jazzmaster
Tomahawks are launched at nights, Zcheng. Did you see how Iraq was vunerable to those missiles eventhough each corners of their city has like dozens of guns? I bet you didn't see the LIVE coverage of those attacks
China wants only Taiwan's economy. "Territorial Intergrety." Give me a break
I'd say China will go back to a third world country if Zcheng was the leader of China and rightfully so. Zcheng is really hot-temperd. Don't be so proud of your nuclear arsenal, no one else is. It is a pain to maintain them, physically and finacially.

I saw the "Shock and Awe". Maybe Saddam was in shock, but not for Iraqi people. They are still fighting US invaders courageously.

China is a third world country, the largest developing country. No one deny that.

Iraq has a lot of guns. But how many submarines, missiles, aircraft, nukes, Iraq have?

The points is that if US intervene in Taiwan, there is possibility leading to all-out war between US and China, in which both nations will be destroyed.

Those fighting are not Iraqis, they are militants recuited from around the region, noticeably Iran and Saudis. The Iraqis are not even fighting.
Think about this. They just came of out a tyranny government of Saddam Hussein, who did not give them any rights. Now the US are in there, keeping the peace, and they just have their own provisional government, and they want to fight the US out of their country, and to go back to another Saddam Hussein government? I do not know what newspaper are you reading, but it is making no sense. I'll give those figheters are fighting courageously, but blindly.

Iraq has a lot of guns. But how many submarines, missiles, aircraft, nukes, Iraq have?

Could any of these listed above have the ability to detect an F-117, or B-2 and shoot it down? I think not

Originally posted by jazzmaster
Fortunately, they were my Chinese friends and they let me know about the problem they faced, that is why i was aware of this fact. I mentioned that they came to see us, not to use the bathroom, the security guards did not even notify this to us. Foreign journalists might have been the reason why these Chinese were denied access. It happens to a lot of people i know, not just us. Anywhere there is the media, there bounds to be some sort of wall blocking.

[edit on 30-8-2004 by jazzmaster]

If they came to see you, why did not you arrange the meeting in a pub or any restaurant? With this, I have some doubts whether you deliberately make this up.