Hurricane Watch 2010

Originally posted by lasertaglover
reply to post by OceanStone

 

I am sorry if this is kinda off topic, but so many disaster preparation plans do not consider the most important asset when all else fails, your feet. You never know when it might be really important to get away quickly by foot.

Not off topic at all in my opinion, very pertinent in a hurricane thread... also interested to see others advice!

This is the latest... Tropical Depression 15... this was a good overview of how complicated this system is... it was a bit amusing too... I kind of felt like I was watching Madden commenting during a football game... ha ha...

I'm not sure if I did this video the right way because it wasn't a youtube... so just in case it doesn't come up... here's the link...

arggg... had to edit... I couldn't figure out how to add the video... well... here's the link...

Accuweather

reply to post by OceanStone


Tropical Cyclone Checklist

It's a long list, and I'll probably add some of my other related obsessive lists to it, so I made a new thread in the Survival forum.

I know what you mean about not having the funds to get supplies. Never too late to start though. When we moved here in '94, we just started getting a couple of extra cans every time we shopped, and then rotated those stocks. The stuff grew, a little at a time, until we eventually converted the second bedroom into a storage room with wall-to-wall shelves and cabinets.

Rotating your goods is a pain in the rear at first, but then it becomes a routine. Where we live, 90% of our goods arrive via a barge pulled by a tugboat, and it's not unusual for squally weather to keep the barge away for a month or more. Thus, what might seem excessive in some places becomes necessary here. It's been a long haul to get to this point, and we sunk all our funds plus what we could borrow into an alternative energy system. It should break even in 2 1/2 years.

TD 15 is getting good outflow now it looks like. I really worry about Central America, again. What would be a storm of no worry in parts of Florida (or even on this rock in the ocean we live on), often kills people in Central America. Hurricane Stan, in 2005 buried an entire village in a mudslide. Mudslides seem to be the primary cause of death and destruction from TC's there.

Let the late-night-redeye-screen-stares begin. Be safe all.

We now have Matthew.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 232041
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by lasertaglover


Yep, and ALSO still have 95L -- a possible splitting of the convection. Matthew still tracking generally westward. I kinda think the GFS model probabilities look accurate with the upper level low sitting over the Cayman Islands. It's concerning, to be certain. GFS solution interacts with a high coming down and across the US to recurve Matthew over or near us and intensify to a major 'cane.

I'm in phase II officially. -- Haul crap to de dump. Hard to separate out the GOOD crap from the bad crap

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Malakas looks to be intensifying.

I don't say this often but I am really confused now...

Good Googy Moogy...

I did find something but it didn't make me feel all cozy....

Matthew Watch

“Here’s the moral of the story, that a complex situation may take a few days to resolve but when it does we’re liable to have a tropical storm or hurricane between Cuba and Central America that has to come north straight for Florida and the southeast U.S. next week,” Bastardi said. “And that is probably what’s going to happen.”

Water temperatures are higher in the Gulf than they were in 2005, when Hurricane Katrina formed, and there is low wind shear in the area, Rouiller said. Wind shear tears at the structure of hurricanes, preventing them from developing, while warm water can help storms grow in intensity.

Bastardi said he believes the major site of storm development has now shifted to the Caribbean and away from the central Atlantic.

“There are another seven or eight storms in the gun and four or five of them that are going to develop in areas where it is relatively close to the United States,” Bastardi said. “I fully anticipate that the highest part of the impact season on the U.S. coast is still to come.”

Bloomberg news

This is from Weather Channel and does not look too good:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/7965ec8e71f3.jpg[/atsimg]

www.weather.com...

reply to post by lasertaglover


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/3d2b8b046966.jpg[/atsimg]

WHAT?

You never know, maybe a visitng Canadian in Tampa who is an ATS member might not worry about a Cat 1 there, so decides to go jogging in the middle of the storm. (oops, sorry to all Canadians, and especially after dealing with hurricanes so much this year yourselves)

Just to be clear, I wouldn't recommend walking around outside in a Cat 1 storm (or our summer thunderstorms, or any other such storm). It only takes one flying piece of debris to take you out, even if only at about 35mph...



I hope those folks in New Orleans are really watching Matthew. Might be a good idea to take a little trip....

I'm in the Tampa, FL area myself, and I'm stocking up this weekend on my hurricane supplies.

reply to post by Gazrok


Getting some extra supplies is never a bad idea!

It does look like Matthew is going to be a problem for a while. The Yucatan and a bunch of countries in Central America need to be getting ready right now. While Matthew is not even a Cat 1 yet, the threat from flash floods and mudslides in this region is really high. That part of the world is going to get really soaked with how long he is going to be over that area.

And I am not liking the possible tracks that he might take after he gets back into the warm waters of the Gulf.

Stay safe, and keep watching.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/340fdd09fe34.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

I am a forum moderator. This may be considered off-topic. If so, I take my bones without protest.

Central America -- almost all of the Central American coast and surrounding area are already saturated. If it is within you belief system to pray for them, I encourage you to do so. It's not going to take much to produce massive mudslides, and they have already suffered so much this year.

That's all I have to say. Be safe everybody, if you can.

reply to post by argentus


Thank you for your post!

And IMO, it is not off topic. The ground is definitely already saturated, and this slow moving storm is going to drop a lot of water in the area. Possibly up to 15 inches of rain in some areas.

I think it awesome of you to ask people to pray for this region (non-organized-religion guy here).

Star!

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

Is seems the forecast is highly uncertain at this point...

A closeup of the forecast model tracks from our Interactive Hurricane Tracking Map shows the problem. The center of circulation is expected to move over warm water, drift over mountainous terrain, back over warm water and perhaps more land. That means the storm could get stronger, weaker, stronger and then weaker again. Maybe. It depends on the track.

One hurricane forecast model suggests the storm will stall offshore and strengthen. Another shows the storm dissipating and then reforming next week and tracking right into the Gulf of Mexico.

HCN Storm Center


reply to post by argentus
Not off topic in my opinion either... I will pray for them... in my words not pushing any particular religion or belief on anyone... Our Father in Heaven spare everyone during this Hurricane season from all harm. Protect everyone affected from all disasters of nature. Amen.

reply to post by OceanStone


The path is changing with every update.

On the one hand, we want it to dump everything it has and break up over the mountains before heading back into the Gulf. But that path really puts Central America into a world of hurt.

And on the other hand, we want it to do minimial damage in Central America, and also not affect the US at all.

I pray that it doesn't nail Central America, and I pray that it does not re-develop next week into something scary.

Matthew hit Nicaragua....

This is a big storm...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/0a822dc6812d.gif[/atsimg]

reply to post by OceanStone


Thanks for the graphic! As always, you rock!

Scary, googly moogly type of storm!

reply to post by lasertaglover


Aaaahaha.... oh yes... it is a good googly moogly!!

I didn't find anything on what damage has occurred after Matthew hit... hope everyone is okay....

Look what the HWRF model looks like.... just one scenario....

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/56a97ac812f9.jpg[/atsimg]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b66fae54eaf9.gif[/atsimg]

reply to post by OceanStone


The fear for next week is if to the east of the Yucatan. The Weather Channel's forecast models are showing either a new storm (Nicole) developing in that spot, or the remnants of Matthew reforming in that area.

The models are showing that once something forms, conditions will be such that it causes any storm system to basically veer due north, and then possibly veer towards the east towards Florida.

I'll try to find something on the current damage from Matthew, but in the meantime, here is the set-up for next week, with the link for the article discussing the potential troubles next week:

www.weather.com...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8ea9ccd21283.jpg[/atsimg]

Holy crap... we're all pretty brunettes!!! Aaaahaha

What the heck??? lol

Hey lasertaglover.... we're twins!!!!!