Hurricane Watch 2010

Updates:

Tropical Wave #1: This system now has a 40% chance of developing, and the NHC is warning people in the Keys, and South and Central Florida to monitor this storm.

Wave #2: Near 0% chance of forming.

Wave #3: Remnants of Julia and not likely to re-form

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www.nhc.noaa.gov...

It seems the hurricane hunters are going up there later today... not sure what time, but a few sites are saying to check into NOAA a little later as the intensity and track should be available if applicable.... this would be Nichole...

I found some historical points of hurricanes and tropical storms and where they formed that affected Florida...

Formation Points for Tropical Cyclones
Affecting the West Coast of Florida
(1901-2007)

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Noaa Tampa Bay

Stormpulse is now showing some scary possible tracks for future 'Nicole'.

www.stormpulse.com...

Looks like she is going to barrel N by NE over Cuba, and then come right at the Southern tip of Florida or the keys, and then keep shooting up the coast.

Wow, I hope those tracks change, and she goes 'poof'.

Little-storm-that-could looks to have really ramped up since yesterday.

Raining still -- rain gauge says 4 1/2 inches since yesterday at 5:00 p.m. Pressure is 998 and steady since 2:30 a.m.

I'm guessing that the convection will stall for a bit before moving on. Pico San Juan Radar

reply to post by argentus


That's a lot of water for something not even formed yet! Good luck and stay safe!

The 'little storm that could', aka soon-to-be Nicole, is up to an 80% chance of forming now. The Florida Keys better be watching this thing very closely.

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AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


www.nhc.noaa.gov...

We're under a Flood Watch till Tomorrow afternoon in Broward. Heard something about the potential of 2 inches of rain per hour..hope not!

Flood Watch for Portions of South Florida

reply to post by worldwatcher


Please stay safe!

And good luck with the horrible flooding. Two inches of rain per hour is crazy, especially if it lasts a long time.

Thoughts and prayers are with you and everyone else that might be affected by this sytem!

(and stay tuned to this thread, there are some great Members on here that are also in Florida, or nearby, and do a great job of bringing in local perspectives)

Ok people, Tropical Depression 16 has formed. Here is the bulletin about that, and the first NHC forecast model:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 281456
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/64d95bf5f53a.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Stay Safe!

I'm under a Tropical Storm Warning now too, definitely more worried about the flooding than I am about the winds.
One thing I always remember.... what was supposed to be Tropical Storm Katrina hitting us as Cat 1 hurricane, lost power for 3 days and a fence too. I don't take tropical storms too lightly, did my milk/bread run already

This system is moving quickly and is forecast to pick up speed. All of you in the warning or watch area should rush to complete any necessary chores/supplies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA

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Really strange......... the center of circulation is apparently west of us, but the primary convection is south of us. TS warning here. It's not uncommon for a COC to wander around in these conditions; I kinda wonder if it's "trying" to reform under the convection. If it does, that will be Nicole. Might be Nicole soon anyway, even if the COC stays where it is.

5 1/2 inches of rain since last night. Not so bad. Very little lightning, thankfully. You all in Cuba, Jamaica, Florida keep a good eye on this; NOAA Rainbow IR looks to me as if TD 16 is compacting somewhat south of us, and getting better outflow.

GFS short-run model develops Nicole and takes it across Florida and into the Carolinas, as well as another system in the wake.

By the way, just in case anyone is unfamiliar with the short model runs......... here's what you do:

1. Click on the main page of the Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclogenesis page
2. Select the model you want to run and click "submit" under the right-hand "get image" column.
3. Scroll the bar to the right and on the right-hand side, click "Forward"; This puts the model graphics into motion
4. the bottom of the page has the color key, so you know how intense of a storm they are predicting.

That's why I was fairly sure this was at least a TD this morning, when our barometer read 998mb.

Good luck all, especially those of you in flood-prone areas. Be safe!


ETA: The NOAA flash maps have a lot of powerful tools...... (such as the Rainbow IR above): you can zoom into any area you want, plus click on boxes to display High, Mid and low density winds, SSTs, temp. etc.

ALL NESDIS maps here

As many as 1000 people feared dead in Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, Mexico, from a mudslide caused by Matthew's rainfall.

Our hearts go out to friends in Oaxaca, Mexico.

MEXICO CITY — Pounded by incessant rain, a hillside in the state of Oaxaca collapsed onto a village early Tuesday, burying houses in mud and stones and trapping hundreds of people as they slept, state authorities said.

As many as 300 houses in the village of the Santa Maria Tlahuitoltepec, in northern Oaxaca, may have been buried in the landslide, the governor of Oaxaca, Ulises Ruiz, told Mexican television. It was too early to say how many victims were trapped or buried under the earth, but Mr. Ruiz said that the number of missing could run as high as 1,000.

reply to post by argentus


That is horrible!

My prayers are with those people for sure!

I also did want to post this quote from the Weather Channel about TD 16:

"Looking ahead, rainfall could reach 5 to 10 inches across parts of Cuba, Jamaica and the Caymans with some extreme totals possibly to 20 inches in the mountains. Flash flooding and mud slides are possible. Damaging winds should not be an issue.

This system will cross Cuba overnight, scrape southeast Florida Wednesday afternoon and move off the Southeast Coast Thursday, strengthening to a 45-mph tropical storm at best. Southern and eastern Florida could pick up 4 to 8 inches of rain."

www.weather.com...

I am worried that since this is not a major hurricane, that people will not be as careful as they should be. Your post about the landslide in Mexico from what some might call a 'weaker' storm, definitely underscores the danger that rain can bring, even without the winds.

Please stay safe!

reply to post by lasertaglover


I keep loosing my 'net connection this morning. It's actually more blustery here today than yesterday.

12-20 mph wind; gusts earlier to 35. Our pressure is reading 994.8. Looks like we only got about 3/4" of rain last night. I'm surprised at that -- probably the wind is driving it away from my rain gauge.

Nice n' cool at 76 degrees. Not really a big deal for this little rock; I'm pretty concerned for the folks in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti. Haiti, in particular, has a lot of trouble with what might be a low-level storm for other places. Looks like Florida and the Bahamas are getting it too. IR satellite

The wave to the east of Hispainola at 15/50 looks like it might be organizing as well. Caribbean IR flash loop

Wow you guys... Some really great posts!

This morning this system looks like a big rain maker.... hope there's not alot of flooding!

We now have Tropical Storm Nicole. Odd that it changed to a Tropical Storm over land? Forecast track is now more easterly, and Storm watches for Florida have been discontinued. Source

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...CENTER STILL NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 80.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR FLORIDA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT - Tropical Storm Nicole has disipated. Flooding still a major concern. Source

Looks like Post-Tropical Nicole will have a strong impact on the Atlantic seaboard.

Some weather outlets are talking about 6-10 inches of rain in some areas. I can't imagine that six inches of rain in New York could be good at all.

Quotes from an interesting blog on the Weather Channel:

"Jack Beven of the National Hurricane Center noted in his discussion about then-TD16 last night, it had "a structure more characteristic of a western north Pacific / North Indian Ocean monsoon depression."

"And last but not least, this will all happen regardless of the fact that the National Hurricane Center declared short-lived Tropical Storm Nicole to be kaput at 5pm EDT. This system will have so much more impact in the U.S. than a small, weak, landfalling named storm such as Bonnie did earlier this season."

Here is the link to the article that has the above quotes:

www.weather.com...

and this graphic below also comes from the same article and link:

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This seems incredible to me that this current storm just beat Hurricane Floyd from 1999 in regards to rainfall in North Carolina. Wow!

www.msnbc.msn.com...
"In North Carolina, the nearly 21 inches collected in Wilmington since rain started falling Sunday topped Hurricane Floyd's five-day mark of 19 inches set in 1999, the National Weather Service said."