Here comes an other one... [Indonesian earthquake calculated, more to come!!]

reply to post by operation mindcrime


Well numbers seem to be going down again on USGS (177 as of Wed Oct. 28 16:00 UTC) and the next full moon is coming up again (2 Nov. 19:00 2009)......

So i guess we will be seeing some action around the weekend (Fri 10-30-2009 to Sun 11-01-2009)..

As for the location, well the Indonesian region would be an easy one so i'm gonna go with the westcoast of south America or the Mexican region...

Magnitute should be above 7.5.......

Peace

Hmmm... you make it look easy!

I will go with a 7+ in a country whose name ends in "stan". West coast of S. America only looks primed for a 6.5 - 7.0 but I gotta respect you going on a limb for 7.5+ Maybe it will be near Panama?

The wild card for me is New Madrid region in the US. It is showing a slightly higher cluster of tiny quakes so it makes one wonder if it is getting ready for something larger. Then again, that one usually is an 'all or nothing region' so I would not say anything larger than 5 would be expected without further warning.

reply to post by nydsdan


Nydsdan,

thanks for joining in on guessing were the next one will be....

I really don't know about the New Madrid area or Yellowstone because i believe those are hotspots underneath the North American plate and not directly linked to the shifting of those plates.

I do however get the impression that the Pacific plate is turning counterclockwise with a big pressure release which we saw last month round the Indonesia-area. My logic tells me that will result in a pressure increase around the Nazca and Cocosplate.....

Is this a prelude of things to come now that we are getting closer to a full moon??

Magnitude 5.4
Date-Time Thursday, October 29, 2009 at 10:52:57 UTC
Thursday, October 29, 2009 at 04:52:57 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 19.061°N, 95.469°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO
Distances 70 km (45 miles) NNW of San Andres Tuxtla, Veracruz, Mexico
70 km (45 miles) ESE of Veracruz, Veracruz, Mexico
125 km (80 miles) NNE of Tuxtepec, Oaxaca, Mexico
390 km (240 miles) E of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 5.7 km (3.5 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=167, Nph=167, Dmin=765.6 km, Rmss=0.93 sec, Gp=169°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

We'll see what happens......

Peace


[edit on 29/10/2009 by operation mindcrime]

reply to post by nydsdan

Nydsdan,

USGS is on 153 as we speak so it's looking like today or maybe tomorrow is the day. I really have to give you credits for this :

I will go with a 7+ in a country whose name ends in "stan".

Peace

Ok, I'll give it a shot..

From the data I've been watching, the Pacific plate's pressure is now affecting the subduction zone off the coast of Seattle and north to Washington state. (Off the coast).

I expect at least a 7.0 or greater off the coast, or in the bay areas of Oregon or Washington states. If you live near the coastline, please be prepared.

Hmmm... using the moon phase theory, I was expecting a lot more mag 6+ quakes over the past 5 to 7 days. In fact, since it has been so quiet, I am starting to suspect that one of us will be right with our predictions.

In another thread a month or so ago I tried to correlate moon phase to big quakes. The larger quakes seemed to pop +/- 3 to 7 days from a full moon, but rarely inside 3 days.

The full moon was Nov 2. We are just now leaving the +/- 3 day window and entering the 3-7 day window on the outside of this full moon. If a large quake is to occur, it may happen between Nov 6 and Nov 9. Probably closer to the 6th but Mother Earth is rarely right on time.

I'd say the relative quiet around India down to New Guinea (along the western edge of the pacific plate) along with some activity in Afghanistan/Pakistan and the Pacific NorthWest may reinforce the theory that tension is building with the counter-clockwise rotation of the plate. If this is the case, then it may be 'stuck' where the next larger quake will be.

In summary, if the pacific plate is making CCW movement and getting 'stuck' somewhere, then where could it be getting stuck? The quakes in Afghanistan/Pakistan may have been from the pacific plate pushing (or squeezing) the Indo-Australian plate. The Indo-Australian plate 'giving' a touch may have allowed the recent movement in the Pacific NW. If this is the case, then the Nazca plate (South America) or the region around Japan may be the locations at risk.

Or... I don't know what I am talking about.

[edit on 4-11-2009 by nydsdan]

reply to post by nydsdan


Hey Nydsdan,

Any bets on a big one hitting within the next few days?

USGS is below 150 and with the second full moon this month coming up on the 31th and with the previous month being very quiet, i'd say this might be a fairly large one.

Now for the location. What's your best estimated guess?

I am gonna go with Asia's east coast but America's west coast is also still high on my list.

Peace

Originally posted by operation mindcrime
reply to post by nydsdan

 

Hey Nydsdan,

Any bets on a big one hitting within the next few days?

USGS is below 150 and with the second full moon this month coming up on the 31th and with the previous month being very quiet, i'd say this might be a fairly large one.

Now for the location. What's your best estimated guess?

I am gonna go with Asia's east coast but America's west coast is also still high on my list.


forgive me but ah im praying that big un will hit in the middle of YS. or long valley
Peace

reply to post by alysha.angel


Hey alysha,

I couldn't imagine that you are sincere about what you wished for and it is probably just sarcasme i am not picking up on. Or are you that anxious to get to 500 pages on the YS thread..

But seriously, i am getting a bit worried about what i am seeing. We will know more in a couple of hours when we see where that 4.7 on the Reykjanes Ridge is going....

You might get what you wished for afterall. That would be exactly one year after the last big series of quakes underneath YS.

Peace and respect.

reply to post by operation mindcrime


Looks like it is closing in on the Indonesian region. Head for the hills?

Peace

reply to post by nydsdan


Well seems like your theory is holding water so far..

In another thread a month or so ago I tried to correlate moon phase to big quakes. The larger quakes seemed to pop +/- 3 to 7 days from a full moon, but rarely inside 3 days.

Since the last full moon was on the 31st of December, i guess this was to be expected...

Magnitude 7.2
Date-Time Sunday, January 03, 2010 at 22:36:30 UTC
Monday, January 04, 2010 at 09:36:30 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 8.912°S, 157.307°E
Depth 30.5 km (19.0 miles)
Region SOLOMON ISLANDS

Now with the amount of quakes going up to 187, do you think we have seen the last of this cycle or is there more to come?

Peace

Originally posted by operation mindcrime
Well it's that time of the month again and before some webbot enthusiast or other prediction-generating official states that a major earthquake will occure around a certain date, allow me to have a wack at it without the help of any clairvoyant drivel....
...
So the official prediction would be:

Big quake, somewere between the 1ste and the 90th parallel. Magnitute >7.0, within the timeframe of 2-5 October 2009.....

Good luck everybody and strap down those heavy objects around the house!!!

Uh-huh, I see ... the revised prediction, re-revised and further revised and so on. Perhaps you should have used the "clairvoyant drivel" after all.

I too watch the quake page daily, for the past ten or more years. On the two December Indonesian quakes they BOTH were preceded by a quake storm on Fox and Rat Islands, Alaska. The second Indonesian one I predicted (to my sister) based on the Fox/Rat observation the year before when I saw a repeat of the Fox/Rat storm of tremors. Works!

Currently, I'm more enthralled with the California/Baja area and trying to figure out what clues make it tick.

Well since nothing was talked about it recently there were two major earthquakes in The Solomon islands tonight 7.2 and 6.5

Here is a link to the article on Yahoo news about the earthquakes:


news.yahoo.com...

reply to post by Trexter Ziam


Actually this thread was a respons to those webbot enthousiasts and their "predictive" capabilities. Just wanted to show it had nothing to do with precognition but rather good observational skills.

The point was already made but my very respected friend nydsdan saw the same correlation and since then we have been testing the theory.

It isn't accurate by a long shot but always closer then any methode using prediction.

Peace

(ps: i haven't forgot you on the greed topic, it's more that i have opened a can of worms which i am still trying to comprehend. I will get back to you on that!!)

reply to post by AlphaPrime


Yeah that surprised me aswell. When i saw the 7.2 this morning i went to the fragile earth section to read about the details but to my surprise nobody made a thread about it....

Maybe earthquakes are losing their popularity??

Peace

Oh, i forgot...

If this "cycle" will bring us an other big shake then i think the Mid atlantic ridge is due for an overhaul on the 40th parallel north, around 30 degrees west....

Could be a very interesting one!!

Peace

[edit on 4/1/2010 by operation mindcrime]

I really thought that it would have hit closer to the Azores (40th parallel north, around 30 degrees west) but apparently the stress build-up found a better release.....

Magnitude 7.0
Date-Time Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 21:53:09 UTC
Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 04:53:09 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 18.451°N, 72.445°W

I really feel for the poor people of Haiti and i hope that all are well...

Peace

Edit: I do believe it might still be heading towards the Azores, so keep an eye on that Mid Atlantic ridge!!!

[edit on 12/1/2010 by operation mindcrime]

Let's see how this works out....

9 degrees south, 92 degrees west. Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 12:00:00 UTC. Magnitude 7,3

Or....

9 degrees north, 82 degrees east. Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 12:00:00 UTC. Magnitude 7,3


We'll see what happens...



Peace

[edit on 27/1/2010 by operation mindcrime]

well because of this...

Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time

* Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 11:20:36 UTC
* Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 10:20:36 AM at epicenter

Location 38.555°S, 15.911°W
Depth 9.9 km (6.2 miles)
Region TRISTAN DA CUNHA REGION

I am forced to reset the original timeframe from 12:00 today to...

Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 20:35:00 UTC, magnitude 7.1

Locations remains the same.....

Peace


[edit on 27/1/2010 by operation mindcrime]

Originally posted by operation mindcrime
9 degrees north, 82 degrees east. Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 20:35:00 UTC, magnitude 7.1

Just when you think you got it.

Magnitude 6.1
Date-Time

* Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 18:49:33 UTC
* Thursday, January 28, 2010 at 02:49:33 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 13.684°N, 125.440°E

Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time

* Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 19:00:33 UTC
* Thursday, January 28, 2010 at 04:00:33 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 7.126°S, 125.108°E

the force which was directed at the Indian plate dispersed over the entire area. More to come in about an hour or five??

We'll see..

Peace

[edit on 27/1/2010 by operation mindcrime]