Sunspot #24 Largest Sunspot Maximum For 400 Years!!

It’s been said that you can patent a ham-and-cheese sandwich if you prepare your application cleverly enough. In your description of the invention, you might include some “legalese” like, “A plurality of slices of the cooked flesh of Sus scrofa interspersed with a plurality of pieces of curdled bovine lactations....” In the early days of radio, it must have been at least as difficult for patent examiners to understand radio-related inventions. Priority was even more difficult to determine—as it is even now. However, hindsight allows an intriguing chronological look at the facts and folklore surrounding a unique era.

I have a question for ya.
Which came first.
The HAM or the radio.

linkypoo

Your post goes against what I have read and what’s been happening.
We may be going into a Solar Minimum.

As far as your comments about ham operators… WOW…ok

Originally posted by pluckynoonez
I'm glad I never wear underwear.

OH GOD!!!



Uhh, you too huh... umm, how do I get back on topic now... Awww...

i thought we were in a low period ??

science.nasa.gov...
"September 3, 2009: The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Weeks and sometimes whole months go by without even a single tiny sunspot. The quiet has dragged out for more than two years, prompting some observers to wonder, are sunspots disappearing
even nasa does ??"


snoopyuk

NASA is trying their best to quiet this subject because for every year the solar minimum continues past due, the global temp drops for the rest of that solar cycle. And what legislation is currently a "hot" topic that NASA Goddard has been "instrumental" in supporting? No one wants to start talking cooling trends and famine in the middle of a "warming crisis". This will continue to be buried in the news as long as possible but folks, a few more years down the road and it will be inevitable and unmistakable. Our climate depends upon our relation to our galaxy's star and its cycles along with gravitational affects of larger planets such as Jupiter.

That may not be science today but before this political religion came into being, it was widely known and taught as science.

As a Ham I do believe this will be an above normal solar cycle.

I have concluded this from research of various ham radio resources including the ARRL.

Will it be the largest in 400 years? I don't know but, it may be the biggest I see in my lifetime.

And yes. When the Internet and the Power Grid are down I will still be able to talk around the world with my HF Radio and a 12 Volt battery.

JFY

I think the sun is going to do what the sun is going to do, or what it wants to do.
It is a pretty big hot ball after all.

That being said, I really have no idea what you people are talking about.

Originally posted by kc0jfy
As a Ham I do believe this will be an above normal solar cycle.

Please don't take this offensively, as I really am truly curious as to why these Hams around think the solar maximum is going to be a whopper for this cycle. Currently we've had like one sunspot in 3 months, and its been about 22 months of uncertainty as to whether SC 24 officially even started or not.

Usually, and by most of the more accurate methods of predicting the solar activity cycle tend to fit a curve to the current values of the solar cycle, and so far its been in an extended minimum which would draw the entire peak of the sunspot cycles down, and futher into the future for the peak.

Far as the Hams knowing something, even the radio activity from the sun has been minimal and unable to pick up much signal on hf bands from even local long distances. So its not like they are getting bizarro frequencies being transmitted? Or am I wrong?

[edit on 5-9-2009 by SlasherOfVeils]

Um... you guys don't actually go out and look at data do you?

That's too bad. Because if you did, you might actually come up with a plausible prediction or theory. Personally, I take pretty much everything I read with a grain of salt. That keeps me based in reality, and makes it easier to mentally classify something as total BS when I see it.

That being said.

SIDC is a scientific organization based out of Belgium. They take the daily sunspot reports from throughout the globe, and consolidate the individual Wolf numbers into their database. When it comes to definative statements about what the sunspot number happens to be on a specific day, the SIDC data is authoritative.

So... for another project, I went and obtained the monthly SIDC dataset going back to January 1749. You can get it here.

There have been 23 complete sunspot cycles since 1755. That is why we are in cycle 24... or so SIDC states. This started 12/13/2007 since that was when the first reversed polarity sunspot (denotes it's part of the next cycle) showed up. From those previous 23 cycles... you can do an average of what the sunspot number should be at so many months or days into an arbitrary cycle. You can also find out what the standard deviation is for that month... in other words, how well the data fits. As a general rule, any sample will be within one standard deviation of the mean 68% of the time. It will be withing two standard deviations 95% of the time.

Lets see where we are right now with the latest data from SIDC (up until August 2009)

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/7a5e58b475c4.jpg[/atsimg]

The average cycle is the red line, and it starts where SIDC declared that Cycle 24 starts. Above and below it, are the one SD lines, showing where the monthly sunspot number should be at 68% of the time.

Do you see a problem?

I do.

Enjoy.




[edit on 5-9-2009 by RoofMonkey]

[edit on 6-9-2009 by RoofMonkey]

yay for 2012 sunspot doomsday scenario

Originally posted by RoofMonkey
Um... you guys don't actually go out and look at data do you?

Ummm you must not read what 80% of people posting in this thread are trying to say, and arguments we are making about current solar activity.

Read before you bash.

[edit on 9/5/2009 by Chaos Lord]

A huge solar max is like Christmas to ham operators . It does outrageous things to there signals . During a big solar max its not unusual to talk to the other side of the planet... literally . So I think a lot of this may be wishfull thinking)

reply to post by RoofMonkey

Thing is tho RM this time the sun doesnt seem to be following the cycle so who knows? we havent been monitoring it that long also.

The Topic of the thread is NOT Ham Radio Operators Intellect..

It is

"Sunspot #24 Largest Sunspot Maximum For 400 Years!! "

Please stay On Topic

Thank you

Semper

Originally posted by Chaos Lord

Read before you bash.

[edit on 9/5/2009 by Chaos Lord]

Not bashing. If you are party to the idea that we have a huge solar event coming up, then it applies to you. If you don't then it doesn't. It seems that some are real quick to adopt the victim hat.

Most of the posts in here are yammering about what some have pointed out is two year old data.

Sunspots do not form in regions that have magnetic intensity much below 1500 gauss. That seems to be the cut off of the amount of power needed to evacuate the flux tubes of plasma, creating the dark spots. So far, we have had one really good spot, and most of the rest have been categorized as "specks" but counted as bona fide spots. (it has to do with each observatories interpretation of how to do the Wolf number)

Bill Livingston of the National Solar Observatory has noted that the magnetic fields of sunspots for the past 17 years has been trending down at about 50 gauss per year. He's been measuring the Zeeman splitting of the spectral line emitted by iron atom in the sunspots themselves. This gives a measure of the magnetic intensity. At this rate, there may not be enough energy in the sunspots to actually generate a spot in the near future.

Now.. whether this is a long range trend, he can't say. He has only been measuring it since the Solar Max of cycle 23.

Source: WUWT

If you want a history and an idea of how they measure this stuff, I recommend "Sunquakes: Probing the Interior of the Sun" by J. B. Zirker

In fact, David Hathaway of NASA has even acknowledged that there is a possibility that we are dropping into a larger than normal minimum. Maybe of the Dalton size.

Graphing several of the known solar variabilty cycles and overlaying it with the 400 year graph from Wikipedia gives you a ~90% waveform match (general shape and peaks and valleys) that may indicate that a Dalton size minima is in store. My graph is no where near scientific, but it is a bit unnerving.


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2b1b850b3bbb.jpg[/atsimg]

There is no science behind this graph, it's just a comparison of an interference graph of 11 year Schwabe, 22 year Hale, 87 year Gleissberg, 210 year Suess, 2300 year Hallstatt solar variability cycles compared to a segment of the known sunspot cycles.

As you can see, the match is no where near perfect, but it matches closely enough to make me think about it. One problem with the graph is that there is a pesky offset of two to three cycles. That makes me question the validity of it.


Other researchers have noted that the entry into this minimum more closely resembles the entry into the Maunder minimum, but I place that as reasonably far fetched... though I can be wrong.



Now.. if you wish to take offense, have at it. But look at the available data for yourselves people.





[edit on 6-9-2009 by RoofMonkey]

Originally posted by bluemooone2
A huge solar max is like Christmas to ham operators . It does outrageous things to there signals . During a big solar max its not unusual to talk to the other side of the planet... literally . So I think a lot of this may be wishfull thinking)

Christmas and several Birthdays rolled into one..

"Most" 'normal' people view outrageous "Sunspot" activity as bad..

Myself and "Most" Radio Amateurs view the Sunspot maximum as a "good times"

from a "radio" perspective.

When the Sun spurts a shed-load of radioactive-gunk at earth, the upper layers of our atmosphere become ionised, "mirror-like" reflective to HF radio signals....!


So what..?!?!?!?!!?

ZZZzzzzzzz..!!!!!!!!!!!!



Well,

Here's the crack..!

HF is "easy" radio, with enough thought anyone capable could make their own "radio transceiver".

With very low RF (Radio Frequency) power output (QRP)

10 watts,

Europe to USA or Africa or Asia or South Pacific or Antartica or South America or Russia or?????


Anywhere, Worldwide,

Wireless...

ZERO "wired network"

Mobile telephone / Landline telephone / fax / Internet RJ-45 LAN or WiFi "wired" comms are;

1) Permanently recorded and monitored indefinatly.

2) Switchable... On and OFF...!!!

3) 'Can' be used against you!?!


HF does not work like the above,

"Always-on" comms,

World-wide during Sunspot Maximums,

#24 has the potential to make HF comms the only working solution,

Ironically.

Peace

BLUE ARMS

Originally posted by tallcool1
I wish I had the time that it took me to read the comments in this thread back. For anyone who skipped to the last page of posts here, allow me to condense the thread into this one post.

Several alarming posts about the "sunspot" maximum in 2012 and how much smarter ham radio operators are than the rest of us.

Intelligent and source backed rebuttal from Phage.

Random 2012 mumbo jumbo postings from a 4chan teenager type.

Intelligent rebuttal from SlasherOfVeils.

Childlike chants of "I'm smarter than you." "I heard it on ham radio."

Request for proof of this "2012 sunspot maximum" and more intelligent rebuttals from Phage and SlasherOfVeils.

Gradeschool fit-throwing.

Me wishing I had all that time back.

Edited for spelling - as I wish others would do too.

[edit on 4-9-2009 by tallcool1]

Consider a life of drink.

Originally posted by snoopyuk
i thought we were in a low period ??

science.nasa.gov...
"September 3, 2009: The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Weeks and sometimes whole months go by without even a single tiny sunspot. The quiet has dragged out for more than two years, prompting some observers to wonder, are sunspots disappearing
even nasa does ??"


snoopyuk

Interesting post....

As everyone knows, every down has an up, every plus a minus,

This L O N G lull will be followed by the most A W E S O M E peak,

Seen for 400 years.

#24

Can't wait.

I have a question for ya.
Which came first.
The HAM or the radio.



Simple,

Mr. Tesla.

FACT.