Whats going on at yellowstone?

reply to post by Roald


Roald that was my second thought this morning when I saw the red 8.8...the first was "holy sh*t" (actually, I said it outloud), and my fear for those in Chile

My second was if this was going to be the trigger event to finally 'slip' this monster we are living on.

I have been visiting the USGS quake list site EVERY day for over ten years now, so I have a very good grasp on the ebb-flow of the tectonics around the world. I have always been good at picking out patterns and it has been obvious to me when there is a larger event, it is followed by a very distinct pattern around it's tectonic edges.....especially the 'ring of fire'.

I have been feeling that the pressure is climaxing on our ring for the past couple of years now. I have noticed definate trends. As I sit here and think about it, I really think it started around the Dec 2004 killer quake/tsunami. I am too tired to go and put a bunch of data together, so lets just leave this at my hunch, unless someone wants to take it on.

I, like you, most definately expect to see these quakes move north. We should see some in the mag 6 range along the cali coast line, and then moving up into washington/vancouver and finally alaska. If this doesn't happen soon, I will get more worried that this in fact building to one bigger, mother release.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Well True American I respect your judgement on this. I did say "To be honest I am not sure about this and Yellowstone" note, not sure. I can tell you one thing it did not affect Ireland!! Never even ruffled the froth on the Guiness.

I am afraid I am not into the mechanics of these beasts as you people are, partly due to a slow internet connection, and I have no idea what - in terms of energy - these figures mean for the park so, as I say I respect your judgement and we will wait and see.

reply to post by Roald


6.2 just gone off in Chile. I do see what you are saying as to the timing of any effect on Yellowstone, but I would understand it better I think if someone could quantify in energy term what the park might be getting from this series in Chile.

Been having a think about this. For example would it be the equivalent of a 1.0 Can we quantify the effect as if it was a local quake?

[edit on 28/2/2010 by PuterMan]

Speaking of patterns..I have been looking at B205, B206, B207, B208, YHH,
YLT, YPM, YPK, YWB, and now YPP, for several weeks on and off, with GEE.

Since The Swarm near B207 has quieted down, I have been noticing quite
low level activity on B208 which once in a while builds up and shows on
other stations. Since the Chile quake B208 looks like it is on another planet.

It seems to take about 23 plus or minus minutes for the Chile quakes to
arrive in Yellowstone, and I usually see most of the stations showing the
arrival at about the same time. But most of them do not show up on B208.
Then sometimes B208 becomes active with an apparent distant quake, while
none or very few of the other stations show the same quake. Its like the
seismometer is attached to a different geological structure which filters out
some events and shows up others.

Has anyone else observed this? Who might shed some light on this?



Just as I was writing this a small bunch of activity showed up on B208 at
16:14:54 to about 16:15:21 followed by a very tiny event a little later,
Then I noticed YPP showed what looks like a typical tele event arriving
about 4 seconds later. Then at 16:24:05 an event hits B205, B207, YHH,
YPM, YPP, and YWB but not visible on B208. Really strange.

[edit on 28-2-2010 by EngTech36]

reply to post by EngTech36


It may have something to do with the fact that the stations in the PB network are all extremely short period stations, which by nature are tuned to pickup slightly higher frequencies (4.5 Hz) than broadband stations like H17A or LKWY.

Those waves coming in would likely have been a much lower frequency, more like .5 to 2 Hz. But they may have still had a higher frequency component, so I am not sure about this. Maybe Shirakawa can offer some insight.

[edit on Sun Feb 28th 2010 by TrueAmerican]

Is there any evidence that these calderas around the world all erupt at the same time? Or are they solitary events?

reply to post by westcoast

I would have to agree with you. If we do not see any quakes moving north, then we should start to worry. While typing this reply, we might assume that the trench have not settled in Chile yet. Let's watch and see.

reply to post by Roald


Yes...still waiting. As of yet, it is for the most part localized to around the 'main' event. I don't like it. Cause-affect. It has always been, in my observation, a chain reaction with a large release. it's kind of like comparing it to a lid floating in a cup of water. if you push down on one side, the other lifts. This fault movement is pretty much microscopic but it is still there, and the motion is measurable in the quakes. Even the high 6 mag quakes typically cause a rash of smaller quakes around the ring.

Granted, it is not often (rarely so far in my lifetime) that we see an 8.8, so the reaction won't be typical......but I would expect it to follow the same pattern, only greater. So I am still waiting....It WILL come, it's only a matter of when. The longer it takes, the more it makes me worry that the reaction on the opposite side will be greater.....or will it be the point of least resistance? Where will that be? Waiting.........

Also, I am still very curious to see how this pans out in Yellowstone. As far as I'm concerned, it HAS to affect it. IMO....

Or, hopefully. The earth has released all of its pent up energy and will be quiet now for the next 50 years.

I just want to point out that after the 1960 9.5 Chilean earthquake there were no major quakes in California. In fact another major quake didn't hit California until 1966. So, if there are no effects from this felt in California I wouldn't be too worried.

Originally posted by Doomsday 2029
Would scientists know if this erruption was going to happen in the near future?

Simple answer, no they would not know. We have very little experience with any volcanos that are pre-eruption. Oh sure, like the teachings of Nostra Damas, any one and their brother can point to an event after the fact and say, "see, he fortold this". Bull cookies. We know a fair bit about volcano's in Naples Italy, but most of our data comes from the "land of pearl harbor". Those volcano's bleed magma in a slow, progressive and predictible manner. Very boring stuff. What we really fear is a volcano that confined with in the magma holds a huge amount of explosive gasses. Volcanos that burp are much more dangerous then volcanos that drool. The last eruption of yellow stone was well over 600,000 years ago.

Its over due. If it happend today, everthing from the rockies to the midwest to the east coast of the US would be burried in over two meters of ash. (thats about six feet). There may be a way to estimate the level of magma in a super volcano. If this would be usefull to us?, I have no idea. But if we assume the super volcano burps, I want to know when, how, and why. What you would need to build is a massive system of ground penetrating radar. The antenna would have to be three to fifty miles accross. But don't fret, software can often take the place of having the biggest radar dish. My suggestion is the USGS enlist the military, who have solved these radar resolution problems.

And if there is any thing I can do? The powers that be know how to get hold of me.

Originally posted by arbiture

Originally posted by Doomsday 2029
Would scientists know if this erruption was going to happen in the near future?

Simple answer, no they would not know. We have very little experience with any volcanos that are pre-eruption. Oh sure, like the teachings of Nostra Damas, any one and their brother can point to an event after the fact and say, "see, he fortold this". Bull cookies. We know a fair bit about volcano's in Naples Italy, but most of our data comes from the "land of pearl harbor". Those volcano's bleed magma in a slow, progressive and predictible manner. Very boring stuff. What we really fear is a volcano that confined with in the magma holds a huge amount of explosive gasses. Volcanos that burp are much more dangerous then volcanos that drool. The last eruption of yellow stone was well over 600,000 years ago.

Its over due. If it happend today, everthing from the rockies to the midwest to the east coast of the US would be burried in over two meters of ash. (thats about six feet). There may be a way to estimate the level of magma in a super volcano. If this would be usefull to us?, I have no idea. But if we assume the super volcano burps, I want to know when, how, and why. What you would need to build is a massive system of ground penetrating radar. The antenna would have to be three to fifty miles accross. But don't fret, software can often take the place of having the biggest radar dish. My suggestion is the USGS enlist the military, who have solved these radar resolution problems.

And if there is any thing I can do? The powers that be know how to get hold of me.

More ridiculous crap spouted from a ridiculous person. Yay, internet!

The last eruption of Yellowstone was well over 600k years ago?

It last erupted 70k years ago, champ.

It's over due?

If you believe in the "it erupts every 600k years" you'd say that. But it doesn't make sense.

Let me point you in the direction of simple math, courtesy of the USGS:

" Is it true that the next caldera-forming eruption of Yellowstone is overdue?

No. First of all, one cannot present recurrence intervals based on only two values. It would be statistically meaningless. But for those who insist... let's do the arithmetic. The three eruptions occurred 2.1 million, 1.3 million and 0.64 million years ago. The two intervals are thus 0.8 and 0.66 million years, averaging to a 0.73 million-year interval. Again, the last eruption was 0.64 million years ago, implying that we are still about 90,000 years away from the time when we might consider calling Yellowstone overdue for another caldera-forming eruption. Nevertheless, we cannot discount the possibility of another such eruption occurring some time in the future, given Yellowstone's volcanic history and the continued presence of magma beneath the Yellowstone caldera."

Please, keep your hokey pokey, failure math skills and pseudo-science out of this thread.

And besides, there's speculation by geologists and vulcanologists if it can even have a super-eruption like it has in the past, not saying a super-eruption can't happen, but that it wouldn't be as massive and devastating.

reply to post by jvz123


Whilst it is not my place to say this to you as I am not a moderator, I shall do so since we are in general a big family of friends on this thread, and we just do not talk to others in that manner.

There is no call to address someone in that tone. Firstly I doubt if arbiture was referring to the event 70,000 years ago as that was not a caldera forming eruption.

You stated

The two intervals are thus 0.8 and 0.66 million years, averaging to a 0.73 million-year interval

You cannot average Mother Nature and it would be just as reasonable to say that the next one should have been due at .4 million interval (8,6,4) and thereby well overdue.

Lastly I quote you again:

Please, keep your hokey pokey, failure math skills and pseudo-science out of this thread.

As someone who joined ATS a few weeks ago I don't feel, on this thread at least, that you have the right to tell a member who joined before the 2008/2009 swarm to keep his/her opinions and comments out of this thread.

If you have a comment or opinion on someone's views then please conduct your questioning of them in an orderly manner and do not resort to childish retort.



[edit on 28/2/2010 by PuterMan]

reply to post by PuterMan


You're right, I forgot where I was at. Where ignorant fear mongering is acceptable, my bad.

My join date is completely irrelevant, you have no idea how long I could've been reading these forums, so cut out the "holier than thou, I joined before you" mentality and stop trying to defend ignorance because you don't like the tone.


And you're right, you aren't a moderator, so get over it.

Wrong information is wrong, in any form.

Also, you should read more than just the bolded portion, where it says it's irrelevant to try and form a statistic on such little data. The point was to debunk the wrong assumption that it has a time limit on when it should erupt, which I did.

[edit on 1-3-2010 by jvz123]

Originally posted by jvz123
And you're right, you aren't a moderator, so get over it.

You're right, they aren't a mod. But I am.

And I suggest you read this

Civility and Decorum are required

Any more personal insults in this thread will result in post removals and warnings.

You are responsible for what you type. No one else is. If you can't post without attacking the person you are responding to, don't post.

So, the old lady is still quiet?

Just a thought. We know that a good portion of the western United States is spreading wider, at a rate of at least a couple of centimeters every year. The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory's GPS network has revealed a spreading rate at the park that's even faster.

So much extending of the land means something has got to give somewhere. The crust gets thinner and weaker in some places. When that happens, rocks deeper down get a load lifted off them and decompress — which is another way rocks can shift from solid to a liquid, magma phase. And when it becomes liquid, it has to come up. Right?


[edit on 1/3/2010 by Roald]

Good Morning, Looks like the Feb swarm area is getting busy, check out
B207
www.iris.edu...

reply to post by EngTech36


Morning to you to

The link you give for irus is strange, I cant find it on any other of the recorders at the park.

Look here :University of Utah at the lake where the big swarm occured last year.

Here all the other recorders dont show it :Here

So maybe just a local factory, mining or geysers, geothermal.

Phew good lol thinks look a bit active again

The largest events were a pair of earthquakes of magnitude 3.7 and 3.8 that occurred after 11 PM MST on January 20, 2010.

Both events were felt throughout the park and in surrounding communities in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho.

USGS

Myself I dont like the Phrase
" were felt throughout the park and in surrounding communities in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho"

And Yellowstone being mentioned together ! lol

Kind Regards,

Elf

reply to post by MischeviousElf


Actually some of them show up on YMR here
www.quake.utah.edu...
Check down at 16:45:35 GMT and on the previous line.

Just did some more checking and some are visible on YHH, YMC, YNR,
YFT and way down at YPP.



[edit on 1-3-2010 by EngTech36]

So could it be that the infamous 'double-tap' quake trend of the last swarm is starting again? I noticed the obvious pattern on the B207 graph just posted and check out the latest on YMR starting at about 1620 UTC:

LINK

So far I see it at 1620 and again at 1640. They are just micro quakes, but this is the first I have seen it since the last swarm ended.

[edit on 1-3-2010 by westcoast]

reply to post by Roald


From what I gather from your post, along with westcoasts post, is that the Chile quake should have some effect on the west coast of US. And, since we haven't seen that yet, then it could mean that if we do, then it will be a major release? I am honestly curious and trying to learn and I thank you in advance for your reply.

Do you have any estimates or guesses to how long such an event might take to occur after Chile's earthquake? I know that nobody knows this answer, but I would be interested to hear your theory, or any of the other great minds of this thread, like Shikarawa(I know thats not spelled right), Robin, Anmarie, westcoast, Puterman, TrueAmerican, any of you guys.....



[edit on 1-3-2010 by kennylee]