Whats going on at yellowstone?

www.quake.utah.edu...
mmh
is that black one at 4:00 a harmonic tremor?
it looks like one to me
again, when looking at stations like YLA

www.quake.utah.edu...
the one here at 01:00 was registered nowhere else???

www.quake.utah.edu...
this one here is not that calm either

so in general, I'd say that the magma movement is currenlty blocked; but as we can see, there have been some tremors. The question now is: will the magma be able to break through this barrier, too?
Especially, as there is increased activity at the YTP spot, the question arises: is the magma trying to go that way, too as it's blocked the other way?

One thing to be mindful of when reading the helicorder/seismograms is that earthquakes in other parts of the world will show up on these charts as well. That is why I always look at the time that it occured and try to see if another larger eq happened somewhere else.

reply to post by dustystrings


Yeah dustystrings, I was thinking the same thing. This nation is already in a world of hurts right now, why add to the pile. If I lived there though, I would be gone staying with family somewhere way far away. I have seen this same type of activity in the past in Alaska, and 95% of the time there was an eruption, some were small and others big.

reply to post by dustystrings


mmh
thanks for mentioning that, I hadn't noticed that before.

Well, I have to say i've followed this post a lot longer that might be termed healthy. First to start out, thank you posters for all the useful information and valid links posted in this thread. Second off, thank you for not running it amok yelling, "We're all gonna die!"

So, a few things if anyone's willing to feed me back on these:

Referring to USGS's elevation program, was Yellowstone ever posted on this, even though it states it's been at a green status since the program was implimented in 05'? (I also have to agree that the status is not likely to change from green unless something greater than the swarm occurs: for example, a magnitude of 5 of higher, or a steam outburst.)

Also it was mentioned in several prior posts that there would be several pre-reqs for a cause of concern, some of which would include land elevation and steam eruptions. Referring to this site, www.earthmountainview.com... which has posted activity in Yellowstone over the past decade, it would seem we've gradually seen these particular changes. Since these occur a bit quicker with smaller volcanoes, might it be possible that these pre-reqs for a volcano such as this magnitude might occur over a longer time scale? Just a thought. I'm open ears if anyone is willing to post some factual accounts on that theory. (Then again, a super-volcanic eruption is something we don't have documented...)

In general, I think there's a definitely a cause for interest and awareness, but nothing to generally panic about. I'll stick with agreeing with several others: if we start seeing quakes on a 5+ scale, I'll start to be seriously worried.

~Cailida

Originally posted by wrangell76
Hopefully the volcano is just releasing some steam and pressure and will settle down shortly.

Releasing pressure isn't always a good thing. Water (fluid) under pressure has a higher boiling temperature. Take my Jeep for example, it has a closed cooling system. I had a pinhole in the top of the reservoir bottle which sits above the engine. Even though there was no water leaking, and the system was full, it wanted to overheat within a couple miles because it wouldn't stay under pressure and it would begin to boil. Not to derail where you were going with your thread, point taken, but lets just hope it "goes back to sleep".

Because the boiling point of water increases with increasing pressure and pressure increases with depth, deep water can be hotter than boiling water near the surface. If the pressure that confines this deep water is reduced quickly, pockets of water may suddenly boil, causing an explosion as the water is converted to steam. Such activity drives the eruptions of geysers, like Old Faithful, which are repetitive releases of plumes of steam and water. Rarely, steam explosions are more violent and can hurl water and rock thousands of feet. In Yellowstone’s geologic past, such violent events, called “hydrothermal explosions,” have occurred countless times, creating new landscapes of hills and craters.

www.yellowstone.net...


Peace

Maybe GEE users will find this interesting: I've found out that the TA.H17A station is on the west side of Yellowstone lake, and very near south of the YLT station also available on the UUSS webicorder page.
For more detailed info (and even photos) check out this page.
Fore more info about other TA seismograph stations also check out this other page.

By looking at the photos from the site above it seems to me that most seismograph stations are buried into the ground and should not be influenced much by wind.

[edit on 2009/1/3 by Shirakawa]

Originally posted by dreams n chains
I'm still curious to hear if anyone knows what it would take for the powers to be at Yellowstone to actually change the status from "normal" to any actual alert. Anyone know?

The warnings would come via the state EAS system. Surrounding states that would also be directly affected will have their EAS systems going off as well.

The Wyoming EAS plan found HERE

The Montana EAS plan found HERE pdf file.

North Dakota EAS plan found HERE.

South Dakota EAS plan found HERE pdf file.

Nebraska EAS plan found HERE pdf file.

Colorado EAS plan found HERE.

Utah EAS plan found HERE pdf file.

Idaho EAS plan found HERE pdf file.

The following link is to a site which contains links to each of the states EAS plans. LINK.

The offical FCC/FEMA EAS website with concise information and how the system works can be found HERE.

I suggest everyone visit their state EAS plan websites, download and print out the page/pdf/doc and have for your reference. I also recomned buying a battery powered weather radio for your area, which is already tuned to the specific frequencies for the NOAA stations which all of the NOAA stations are LP stations (primary) for each state in the EAS nationwide system. These radios are cheap and can be set so that they will automatically sound an alarm and un-mute the audio when they recieve an alert.

Here is a pdf file with excellent info on evacuation steps during earthquakes. LINK. I suggest saving this file and printing it out as well.

A basic guide to evacutation found HERE pdf file.

Volcano information and what to do found HERE pdf file.

Red Cross volcano information and what to do found HERE pdf file.

Another good site for volcano information and tips found HERE.



With proper information, planning, being prepared, and not go stirr crazy and remain calm, there wont be a chaotic cattle roar if there is a reason to call for evacuation. Going crazy in a time of an emergency only creates another emergency..your own, and it can cause problems for everyone around you.

If you fail to plan...plan to fail...ie..die.




Cheers!!!!

reply to post by RFBurns

Excellent and informative post. Starred!

A little more info for "dreams n chains", who asked:

I'm still curious to hear if anyone knows what it would take for the powers to be at Yellowstone to actually change the status from "normal" to any actual alert. Anyone know?

I checked the USGS site and found the USGS Volcanic Activity Alert-Notification System, which says that normal (green) status applies when:

Volcano is in typical background, non-eruptive state
or, after a change from a higher level, volcanic activity has ceased and volcano has returned to noneruptive background state.

It goes on to say that a yellow alert applies when:

Volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background level
or, after a change from a higher level, volcanic activity has decreased significantly but continues to be closely monitored for possible renewed increase.

So, as the status is still green, then everything that is going on there right now is officially considered to be its "typical background, non-eruptive state". Could've fooled me! Didn't I read that senior scientists in YVO and USGS were looking at this as the "most significant quake activity in many years"?

How is that "typical background"?

[edit on 3/1/09 by JustMike]

I have created a user-editable Wiki dedicated to gathering information regarding the current "issues" in Yellowstone.

It can be found here: wiki.info2intel.org...

Please feel free to add links, resources, and additional information to it.

I will leave it "user editable" unless it is abused..

-K

Originally posted by JustMike
So, as the status is still green, then everything that is going on there right now is officially considered to be its "typical background, non-eruptive state". Could've fooled me! Didn't I read that senior scientists in YVO and USGS were looking at this as the "most significant quake activity in many years"?

How is that "typical background"?

Excellent followup info! Star 4 U 2!

Well what they mean is that this recent activity is most significant to the past activity, but I dont think they are implying that it is significant to a point of an actual major disaster, just increased activity from previous ones.

I think we all should keep doing what we are doing, monitor, keep those weather radios on and active, have your plan ready in case, and help others and tell others who are completely unaware of these events.


Cheers!!!!

Nice and calm right now... Dare I say normal? Maybe the magma found new conduits?

Too early to tell for sure, but hopefully things just die down.

Regardless, if things subside this will provide ample fuel for the 2012 hysteria.

I guarantee that as we get near the December 21, 2012 date we'll hear a ton about how that will affect this system. I'm planning a nice, long vacation sometime in the Spring of 2013, since that's the next time I'll fully relax.

Good Morning all. I am new here, though I have been following this thread since day 1 here at ATP. I am a member at a similar site, and was posting there frequently, on this topic, and others. I decided to come here because the other site seems much more inundated with hopelessly immature member bashing and a complete lack of wishing to learn the facts. This thread, though it has its moments, is much more sane & scientific in its wanderings. There's been some great info and insight by members here which is commendable, because I am sure many of you, like myself, have only recently become amateur seismologists and vulcanologist! You know what they say about necessity...Thank you for having me here!

I would like to mention Bernard Chouet, a renowned vulcanologist. The theory (or fact) of harmonic tremors preceding volcanic eruptions seems to be to his credit. You may have read that he has successfully predicted several eruptions using harmonic tremors as the basis of his predictions. I believe the latest of these was Pococatepetl; his prediction and subsequent evacuation of the surrounding area saved a lot of lives there. His career and recognition started with his prediction of an Alaskan Volcano eruption for which he was scoffed at by the USGS, and then days later recalled when he was correct. I had information that he lives in Menlo Park, CA, found an email address for him, and so I sent him an email regarding YS and the recent swarm. I have not heard back from him, but it would be comforting to know that he has looked at the information available about YS. Anyway, just wanted to drop his name for your further research.

All is seemingly quiet this morning. I wonder if the tremors at YS are measured anywhere outside the U.S.? I am nearly convinced that the truth may get harder to come by with this swarm event more in the mainstream, and with sites like ATP buzzing with speculation. The USGS is part of the US machine of (dis)information, and honestly, that troubles me. Factor in the presence of FEMA and Homeland Security and that raises the eyebrows even further for me. This latest quiet period has me wondering if said swarm is being controlled by an on and off switch, so suddenly have we gone from quake after quake to absolute stillness...or am I wrong about that?

Anyway, thank you for hearing me out. Though this has been a fascinating ride for the last week, I for one would not be disappointed if it was over. The only thing I'd be worried about is if it was really over at all, or if someone made the decision to keep us in the dark. Of course, the fact remains, that someday, whether it is next weekend, or the next century, the people of the Earth are going to have to deal with a volcanic eruption from Yellowstone. No matter how devastating that may be for human kind, it is a necessary part of Earths infinite cycle of birth and death.

found a nice pic withthe lokations of the uprising dome's

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

It is possible if we look at this short trend, to wonder if the current round of activity will result in subsidence..





USGS-- fair use?

[edit on 3-1-2009 by dustystrings]

www.usnews.com...

Again, for 2.5 mag or greater quakes: Entire region of Yellowstone for 10 years = 128 quakes Area just around Yellowstone Lake last 4 Days = 30 quakes

reply to post by odd1out


Welcome! Maybe this vulcanologist could be interviewed on the ATS Mix program that right now, may be trying to get that Sander's fella who plastered youtube with a "not official" evacuation video.

I would much rather see an accredited geologist, one prefereably from Yellowstone or the Wyoming Geologists Association or USGS who actually works there in Yellowstone, to be interviewed than some pop up out of nowhere wannabe only looking for brownie points and site hits. Just my opinion.




Cheers!!!!

[edit on 3-1-2009 by RFBurns]

No basis for conspiracy theories.

Really think about it. You will not find any geologists who say we are in for an eruption. All of the language is consistent. We PROBABLY are not in for much. The quakes will PROBABLY die down without incident.

There is a small chance of hydrothermic explosion and a smaller chance of eruption. There is but a smaller chance of a major eruption. Even in my own personal hysteria this last week, my gut never told me that there was more than a 5% chance of a big one. But that was enough for me. I'm a poker player and I've seen enough two outers come on the river (5% shot) that it was worth taking precautions.

I may be off on my odds, in that the real chances have always been far less that 1%. Remember, we're on geological time where a century is a minute. Even on that time, major eruption cycles happen over days. The repeated fact that we are "overdue" for an eruption because they have happened in 600,000 year intervals over three samples is relevant, but not a significant predictor.

As things die down, my gut would say we're well under the 1% threshold and I defy anyone to claim otherwise. Even on this, a conspiracy web-site where those of us following are wired to be a bit (let's be kind) over-sensitive, none of us are claiming that an eruption is definitely coming. The data simply doesn't lead there, despite some anomalies and unanswered questions.

I seriously doubt that the government would conspire to manipulate data for an event that is unlikely. The potential fallout from that behavior does not match the risk of the event itself. There are just too many Seismographs out there to keep something like that secret.

Let this be a lesson to you in future speculation. Not everything is a conspiracy. Sometimes data will lead where it leads. If anything, this thread has often gone out of its way to connect data to an assumption of a super-eruption. That has never been LIKELY... Though it is understandable that because it is possible it has created deep concern.

We've had eight years of an administration that has created deep rifts and undermined trust. We have good reason to question and I wonder if suspicion would lead anywhere as deep had we not experienced the political period we have. But don't allow your entire thought process become a prism that assumes everything is an extreme deception. That's simply paranoia.

Time to take a deep breath and have a bit of perspective. As we stand right now, there is a smaller chance of a super-eruption that of, at the worst, hitting the pick three lottery. Realistically, it's probably more like hitting the pick five.

reply to post by pantangele


Have to agree, no conspiracy with this..besides, if government were trying to hide data, they would not have any of those seismic units feeding data to the public at all. And if they alter the data in any way, if any eruption were to occur, the aftermath of inquery would be extreme and I dont think that the incomming administration wants to put that on their plate right off the bat.



Cheers!!!!

It is very quiet..too quiet! Anyway, it has not been this quiet in six days. Have we seen the last of the activity? Yesterday seem to have been extremely busy and probably the worst of it has passed now.