An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by pynner

Hi Pynner,

yes, like that. It's pretty much what I'd expect, as I said... And up in that far NE corner it's not all that far from Yellowstone, is it? So it's not so surprising to have one like that pop up. Actually there could be a couple more around the region. (And as I said into California as well.)

Of course, it could be just coincidental that it happened only two hours after my post...but...

Mike

[edit on 4/1/09 by JustMike]

Magnitude 3.0 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2009 January 04 16:05:38 UTC

38.725°N, 119.618°W
Depth 0 km (~0 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances 16 km (10 miles) ENE (76°) from Markleeville, CA
18 km (11 miles) ESE (115°) from Mesa Vista, CA
18 km (12 miles) ESE (108°) from Alpine Village, CA
39 km (24 miles) SE (126°) from South Lake Tahoe, CA
162 km (101 miles) E (83°) from Sacramento, CA

EQ's in northern Nevada, southern and eastern Idaho, western and northern Utah and southern Montana are the ones that have regularly disappeared since we started this thread. Numerous incidents.

It seems to me that we discussed a long way back in this thread, how micro EQ's seemed to be tracking across Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Utah, in little "trails" from the Pacific coast subduction zone up to Yellowstone. And it seemed a lot of the EQ's that made the connection to Yellowstone were deleted. I know damntheptb and I discussed this a lot when looking at the maps.

I believe the increase in hydrothermal activity in California and Nevada (maybe elsewhere, but CA and NV I watched most closely) was a precursor of sorts to the increased YS activity. And given the 3.0 near Markleeville, where an EQ swarm started up just before YS's increase in activity, I'd say it may be indicating more activity at YS. The Markleeville swarm, as well as the Quincy swarm (near Mt. Lassen) started up just before YS. So did Trona and Ludlow, to name a few. It's all connected.

oh what's this:

M 4.4, Northern California

Date:
Sunday, January 4, 2009 17:27:10 UTC
Sunday, January 4, 2009 09:27:10 AM at epicenter
Depth:
4.30 km (2.67 mi)


right in the middle of the hotsprings in northern cali.


funny, they made the dot pretty tiny on that one.

reply to post by kattraxx

posted on 1/3/09 @ 10:00 AM

While I'm not sure about the short-lived nausea everyone's mentioning, I think some of it is northern California, including the bay area and offshore, down to Tres Pinos.

Maybe there will be another in the 4.0 range around The Geysers or Tres Pinos this week. I wonder if all the geyser and hot spring activity lately was a precursor of sorts for the Yellowstone activity?

Magnitude 4.4 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2009 January 04 17:27:10 UTC

4.4
Date-Time Sunday, January 04, 2009 at 17:27:10 UTC
Sunday, January 04, 2009 at 09:27:10 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 38.783°N, 122.772°W
Depth 4.3 km (2.7 miles)
Region NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances 3 km (2 miles) ESE (119°) from The Geysers, CA
7 km (4 miles) SW (216°) from Cobb, CA
7 km (4 miles) W (278°) from Anderson Springs, CA

The Geysers in Northern California.

Doesn't bode well for Yellowstone. Not the end of the world, but maybe something 5.0+. Or there's another possiblity... all of this, including YS, is a precursor for a huge EQ. And not necessarily at YS. Perhaps the western U.S.

[edit on 1/4/09 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx

Could well be as you say... And the effects of the latest Afghan quake I think are also coming through now. Things have been much quieter than usual in the California region for the past few days but now it will probably get quite busy again.

I'm wondering if this could be quite a bizarre relationship... The Afghanistan/Pakistan region (heavy faulting due to collision of plates) might have some kind of effect on Yellowstone's magma plume, which over a long period, actually aids the subduction of the Juan de Fuca and hence also the faulting within Calif and other PNW regions, through the movement of their plates (Nth American and Pacific), and this might have a knock-on effect within the ring of fire... Those big quakes in Indonesia happened on the junction between the Pacific Plate and the Australian-Indian Plate, and it's the Aus-India Plate's collision with Eurasian Plate that causes the quakes in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

I think it's all of a piece. True, we've often said that it's all connected, but some pieces of the puzzle are missing. Namely, to move things in a system you need to put energy into that system. We know that the plates have a natural tendency to move in a certain way on the globe, but the planet's spin and gravitational forces don't account for it all.

I'll say it like this: a week or two back I mentioned that I see the mid-Atlantic ridges as highly important, because it's as if they feed movement into the system. They push plates apart. But that's still not all of it. The same applies to some degree to the ring of fire...but what about magma plumes? Even if they are not seen to produce a lot of activity in their own region all the time, there is energy transfer evident there, and perhaps the plumes (like the one beneath Yellowstone) are far more important to the functioning of the whole system that we have recognized.

I don't know... I just putting it out there.

Then there's the isotopic rebound aspect, which I think is starting to move from theory into reality. You know how we are beginning to see quakes occurring in far northern and southern regions, where previously we almost never did? The isotrophic rebound idea is that the weight of ice in the polar regions is so massive that it pushes down on the land and this pressure (paradoxically) deadens the effects of subterranean pressures that can cause quakes. This would be much more noticeable in the south as there is the land mass of Anarctica there, but even in the north there would be some effects. However, if a significant enough percentage of the ice is lost then the pressure reduces and the land begins to move up. It's theorized that this movement (isotrophic rebound) can lead to an increase in quake activity.

Put it all together and it would seem that stats showing an increase in the number of larger quakes have some explanation.

But besides the rebound theory, what do you all think about the possible relationships between Yellowstone and other places -- and even the recent scientific observations that show larger quakes in Alaska can trigger multiple smaller ones in Yellowstone?

Thoughts?

Hello everyone,

I always seem to be a day late and a dollar short. I have been using e-mail since my problems with my computer and haven't checked this thread and it seems everything is here already, duh!

Here is the update for Yellowstone

www.usnews.com...

Hi Mike,

I agree about Yellowstone and Alaska.

I was reading about quakes felt in Yellowstone from the larger one 7.+ from the Denali National Park Fault ways back in time.

Yesterday there was a quake small 2.9 40 miles SSW of the Denali National Park.

All we can do is to continue to monitor and see what we can make of all this.

Magnitude 5.0 - PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
2009 January 04 17:46:34 UTC

I'm still not giving up on the flash I had because as I look at the world map and follow the larger quakes it looks like they are heading to my area to complete the series.

If you didn't understand what I just wrote that's okay I'm in my own little earthquake mode prediction right now

Kat you are right on it!

Observe, when you say "your area", do you mean Brazil, or the mid-Atlantic ridge? I've been watching the subduction zone in S. America lately. Lots of volcanic activity there recently, and a few hot spots.

JustMike

The isotrophic rebound idea is that the weight of ice in the polar regions is so massive that it pushes down on the land and this pressure (paradoxically) deadens the effects of subterranean pressures that can cause quakes. This would be much more noticeable in the south as there is the land mass of Anarctica there, but even in the north there would be some effects. However, if a significant enough percentage of the ice is lost then the pressure reduces and the land begins to move up. It's theorized that this movement (isotrophic rebound) can lead to an increase in quake activity.

I think Mountain Dog posted an article about this not too long ago. Seems logical. Sort of the reverse of the dam theory, that the weight of the water concentrated in one place can cause EQs in the area.

But besides the rebound theory, what do you all think about the possible relationships between Yellowstone and other places...

It's just a gut feeling, but I'm thinking the increased activity at Yellowstone could be a precursor for something else... that all of this might not be about Yellowstone in and of itself. I couldn't tell you why exactly-- just a feeling that follows my belief that all of the geothermal activity in CA and NV increased before the YS activity.

Originally posted by observe50
Hi Mike,

I agree about Yellowstone and Alaska.

I was reading about quakes felt in Yellowstone from the larger one 7.+ from the Denali National Park Fault ways back in time....

All we can do is to continue to monitor and see what we can make of all this.

Hi Observe,

yes, there was an article written about it in around 2002 I think it was. Just a second, I'll check my files...

Yep. Found it. It was in Scienceblog dot com, dated 2002-11-05: Alaska Quake Seems to Trigger Yellowstone Jolts

On the basis of what they say there it's well worth keeping an eye on Alaska.

@ Kattrax: Hey, nice hit on that prediction for a mag 4-plus around the Geyser area!

Speaking of predictions, I think we should keep and eye on the region off the coast of NE Sth America, especially around lat 3 to 5 degrees Nth and 47 to 49 deg. W. Basically it's the region offshore from Cayenne. Not expecting anything huge but with what has been going on in Indonesia it would not surprise me to see something there above the mid mag 4 range and possibly into middle mag 5. Time window is short though. Only up to three days from time of posting this. Statistically the odds for such a quake in that region in the next three days are not great -- in fact they're quite poor for a mag 5 or more -- but all the same I see it as a fair chance and it won't surprise me if it happens. I'd put it at better than 50% for what it's worth.

Just a note on this though. The quakes in Indonesia are all just shy of the equator (0 deg lat), but the ridge in the Atlantic off Nth America seems more likely to come unhinged a few degrees further north. That's why I gave the location that I did. I did an analysis that suggests around 10 deg N and 48 W is statistically more likely but for various reasons I'll stick with what I've said.

Anyway if it happens I'll go into more details, if I'm wrong then so be it. No sense in wasting cyber-ink just yet...

regards,

Mike

reply to post by observe50

I understand exactly what you mean. My own post (just above) might relate to what you spoke of. Not directly -- meaning it's not a "big" one, but it could be an indicator.

Originally posted by kattraxx
It's just a gut feeling, but I'm thinking the increased activity at Yellowstone could be a precursor for something else... that all of this might not be about Yellowstone in and of itself. I couldn't tell you why exactly-- just a feeling that follows my belief that all of the geothermal activity in CA and NV increased before the YS activity.

I agree: considering what we know about Yellowstone, the odds of the "big one" there are very, very low. Not zero, but so small that we really shouldn't worry about it too much. Even the odds of an event similar to the last "biggish" one there from some thousands of years ago are rated at around 1 in 5,000 in any given year, so I'm not going to hold my breath, recent events there notwithstanding...

There are other, less "spectacular" possibilities that we need to consider and besides our prediction work on this thread, they have been our main focus, because while they're not "spectacular" they could still have pretty drastic consequences for some people and are also more likely, with odds down in the 1 in 100 to 1 in 300 -- year range.

I think for now, the best we can do is observe and note as much as possible, share ideas, information and even hunches, and see if we can find any small keys that might reveal some of this incredibly complex puzzle and help us to predict what might happen.

Mike

A very interesting article:

Of Sunspots, Volcanic Eruptions and Climate Change

University at Buffalo scientists working with ice cores have solved a mystery surrounding sunspots and their effect on climate that has puzzled scientists since they began studying the phenomenon.
The research, published in a paper in the May 15 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, provides striking evidence that sunspots -- blemishes on the sun's surface indicating strong solar activity -- do influence global climate change, but that explosive volcanic eruptions on Earth can completely reverse those influences.

A chart in the paper shows how six major volcanic eruptions between 1800 and 1962 occurred during precisely the same years when there were reversals in the correlation between sunspot activity and climate.

As I was saying.... these EQ's always seem to be deleted without explanation.


DELETED: Event NN 00270790

== EVENT DELETED NOTIFICATION ==

***This event has been deleted after review by a seismologist.***

Geographic coordinates: 41.693N, 114.405W
Magnitude: 4.3
Universal Time (UTC): 4 Jan 2009 15:29:20
Time near the Epicenter: 4 Jan 2009 07:29:20

Location with respect to nearby cities:
30 km (18 miles) SE (131 degrees) of San Jacinto, NV
41 km (26 miles) NE (44 degrees) of Wilkins, NV
50 km (31 miles) NNW (327 degrees) of Tecoma, NV
110 km (68 miles) NNW (345 degrees) of West Wendover, NV
235 km (146 miles) WNW (297 degrees) of Salt Lake City, UT


[edit on 1/4/09 by kattraxx]

Magnitude 2.8 - NEVADA
2009 January 04 20:41:05 UTC

39.292°N, 119.724°W
Depth 16 km (9.9 miles) set by location program
Region NEVADA
Distances 4 km (3 miles) E (97°) from New Washoe City, NV
15 km (9 miles) N (10°) from Carson City, NV
15 km (9 miles) WNW (288°) from Dayton, NV
27 km (17 miles) SSE (162°) from Reno, NV

Not far from here... near Steamboat Hot Springs.

Originally posted by pynner
1:08am pst..

sharp pain in my left temple and left side of my sinus.

OK, this thread is officially starting to trip me out. I didn't have any more tones yesterday but I did have a stabbing pain in my left temple around 11:30 PM PST yesterday. I dismissed it as it was not a 'headache' and just sort of bugged me for a little while before going away.

reply to post by soma_pills


I hope you're logging your pains, ear tones and EQ's.

My bf had the stabbing pain in the left temple last night too.

I have right ear pains that were fairly sharp for about 3 mins., a frontally located headache and heart area pressure.

(I don't know if you can get u2u's yet, but if/when you can, you have mail.)

[edit on 1/4/09 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx

Yes, we were pretty much expecting they'd delete it, which is why I took screen shots. But this time, at least they replaced it with another, smaller one just a little ways distant...

The original data page:


The new data page:


The original map:


The new map. Note: this quake is not on the one above. If it's a different quake it should be there. After all, they occurred only eight seconds apart:


(All images in this post from USGS. Published for informational purposes only.)

You know, when they posted that 4.3 and I checked the historic seismicity, there were no other quakes shown there in the corner. They are down around Wells. I wondered at that as it's odd.

Take a look at the historical seismicity map for the 3.6 and you'll see what I mean. (It covers exactly the same region as the deleted 4.3)



See what I mean?

So...a downgrade and a move, all in one? Or was the other quake just a mistake and it never really happened, but this one, which happened a whole 8 seconds later, somehow didn't get automatically posted on the maps, while the one that didn't really happen (remember?) did get posted?

They must think we are awfully stupid, you know. (Those are volcanic effects to the left there....)

[edit on 4/1/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by kattraxx


I am logging but I'm realizing I haven't necessarily been logging everything I should! I can get U2U...just never checked it until now. Just sent you a reply.