An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by space cadet


I second the visual disturbances. It's very bad today.

I'm still waiting to see if anything +5.0 happens out west here, with all the geothermal activity going on lately. It seems to have really picked up the past couple days.

Magnitude 3.0 - YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING
2008 December 28 19:55:18 UTC

List so far:

MAP 3.0 2008/12/28 19:55:18 44.507 -110.355 0.4 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.6 2008/12/28 19:32:15 44.511 -110.352 0.3 62 km ( 39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.4 2008/12/28 15:37:41 44.523 -110.370 0.4 60 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 3.2 2008/12/28 09:23:57 44.505 -110.363 0.4 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.2 2008/12/28 07:15:19 44.487 -110.358 0.4 62 km ( 39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.1 2008/12/28 06:37:20 44.491 -110.383 0.2 60 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.4 2008/12/28 05:23:54 44.490 -110.360 1.9 62 km ( 39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 3.8 2008/12/28 05:15:56 44.492 -110.365 0.2 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.6 2008/12/28 00:08:50 44.493 -110.354 0.4 63 km ( 39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 3.2 2008/12/27 22:30:03 44.495 -110.367 0.2 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 3.4 2008/12/27 20:26:27 44.488 -110.365 0.3 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 3.5 2008/12/27 20:17:32 44.481 -110.362 0.7 62 km ( 39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.3 2008/12/27 18:56:35 44.484 -110.367 0.5 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.8 2008/12/27 18:23:07 44.490 -110.369 0.1 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.5 2008/12/27 17:01:07 44.484 -110.367 0.2 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.6 2008/12/27 16:30:53 44.497 -110.368 0.4 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
(From the USGS page)

I was really hoping that it would have quieted down by the time I woke up this morning.

Oh well, lets see what today holds shall we.

RISING DOME IN LAKE SHAKES
Seventeen In A Day

yellowstoneparknews.blogspot.com...

YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO OBSERVATORY INFORMATION RELEASE
Saturday, December 27, 2008 20:29 MST (Sunday, December 28, 2008 03:29 UTC)

YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO (CAVW#1205-01-)
44.43°N 110.67°W, Summit Elevation 9203 ft (2805 m)
Volcano Alert Level: NORMAL
Aviation Color Code: GREEN

PRESS RELEASE FROM YVO PARTNER UNIVERSITY OF UTAH SEISMOGRAPH STATIONS

Released: December 27, 2008 04:40 PM MST

The University of Utah Seismograph Stations reports that a swarm of small earthquakes of magnitude 3.5 and smaller is occurring beneath Yellowstone Lake in Yellowstone National Park, five to nine miles south-southeast of Fishing Bridge, Wyoming. The swarm began yesterday afternoon, Dec. 26, and has continued and intensified today. The two largest earthquakes in this swarm have been shocks of magnitude 3.5 and 3.4 which occurred at 1:17 and 1:26 pm MST, respectively, today. Many smaller earthquakes have also occurred, including three events this morning of magnitude 2.5 to 2.8 and a magnitude 3.2 event at 3:30 pm MST. Some of the earthquakes in the swarm have been reported felt by people in the Yellowstone Lake area. Swarms of this nature are relatively common in this part of Yellowstone Park.

Summary for Largest Earthquake:
Date (UTC): December 27, 2008 Time (UTC): 20:17
Date (local): December 27, 2008 Time (local): 01:17 PM MST
Latitude: 44 28.85' N
Longitude: 110 21.74' W
Magnitude: average Ml: 3.50
average Mc: 3.6
Reported magnitude: 3.50

volcanoes.usgs.gov...



[edit on 12/28/08 by kattraxx]

Yeah, somebody posted that on the yellowstone thread...

But if you think about it... if something this big was awakening, do you think the science world would say anything different?

Glad to see they are at least "on top "of it.

I don't think it's anything out of the ordinary at Yellowstone. These swarms come and go. I watch and post on it mainly for those who are logging their precursors and subsequent seismic activity.

reply to post by kattraxx

Hi Kat,

good point you mentioned, about the ear tones. Shows the value of having several of us on here to give different perspectives. I was focusing on the general area around Ohio, but it's equally valid (and maybe more so) for kennethmd to consider the aspect you raised.

reply to post by TwiTcHomatic

If they truly has very strong reasons to believe that Yellowstone's super caldera is really awakening then I doubt they would make it public if it appeared to be imminent. We've probably all seen the various documentaries and if that place blows up it will be utterly cataclysmic, so as trying to evacuate at least half of the US population (to where??) is simply unrealistic, about the best indicator we might have of something major coming up in short order, would be a sudden egress of various "high-net-worth" and other "VIP" figures from US shores to distant lands for no really plausible reason/s, coupled with a very significant uptick in Yellowstone's seismic activity. (And a sudden closure of the park for some reason or other, with all staff also hightailing wayyyy out of there as quietly as possible.)

Otherwise, as Kat also said, we can just consider this current swarm as like all the others. They are not exactly an everyday or even every-month occurrence on this scale, but they do occur often enough and up till now, things have eventually quietened down again.

Hopefully (with the caveats in the first par) there's nothing to be all that worried about vis-a-vis Yellowstone itself. However, what it might indicate further afield is another story. Yellowstone's "tentacles" reach a long way, it seems, so there could be some activity elsewhere, even in places that normally experience very little.

Now, that's something to keep an eye on...

reply to post by JustMike


Agreed. I'm not so much worried about Yellowstone blowing, as I am interested in this swarm as it relates to the EQ swarms and increased geothermal activity in California and Nevada, and the western U.S., in general.

We've been following very closely and documenting events on this thread regarding increased EQ and geothermal activity we've seen lately, especially in California, and noting that it usually means a moderate EQ is imminent.

Now with the Yellowstone activity on the rise, I have to wonder if something isn't up, if perhaps a higher mag EQ isn't in the offing. It all seems connected to me.

Hello all, just stoping in to report my precursors at this moment, it is 148am,est, and I am having multiple ear tones, I think I am hearing at least 3 different tones, last night I began to have one that sounds like the ocean, it was gone when I got up today, but started again about 10 minutes ago. Low and high ringing too. I have pressure at my temples right now, I feel a headache coming on there. Right knee pain.

wanted to add...

had ear tones/ringing at about 11pm pst. (left ear)
low / high tones, both pretty loud.

[edit on 29-12-2008 by pynner]

[edit on 29-12-2008 by pynner]

428 am est, I am anxiously waiting to see somthing on the UCGS site, I felt something just a moment ago, the counter was vibrating and you could hear a rumble like a train barrelling down a track, only for a couple of seconds, but I definatly felt it.


edit to add: it is now 455 and nothing is showing up on the site to show activity in this area, wtf?

[edit on 29-12-2008 by space cadet]

Just found this thread. I am in California, the Sacramento area. I get ear tones and the last couple of days I have had an unusual spike. Had a 30 second, high pitch tone in my left ear the other day and tonight/this morning I have had at least 2 in my left ear that were medium pitch and 10-15 seconds long. I also have a splitting headache, which is not the norm for me. It's actually why I jumped online...I wanted to check the USGS site and see if anything had pooped off as I have a feeling something is about to. I don't necessarily think Yellowstone is about to blow or anything like that, but a decent sized 5 or 6 someplace in CA or offshore Pacific Northwest would not surprise me in the very near future.

reply to post by space cadet


Space, ditto on the right knee pains. Both of us got them last night. And for those of you not familiar with precursor type pains... when we say knee pain, we don't mean an ache that lasts all night-- it's just a few points of pain, just enough to let you know it's there, then it's gone. It comes in little episodes like that and you may get one episode or two or three. I believe that the more intense the pain and the more episodes, the higher the EQ mag will be. There are a lot of areas I'm still working on, like Central and South America-- trying to figure out specific precursors for each country, etc.

Space, do you ever get the same type pains in your toes? Had right toes also last night. How about a needle-like itch in the sole of a foot? I think that one may be Bolivia and/or Argentina-- still need a bit more confirmation.

I'm pretty sure the right knee and maybe right foot stuff is Chile. That's been going on and off for the past three days or so.

Magnitude 4.8 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
2008 December 29 14:40:16 UTC

reply to post by soma_pills


Soma, welcome to the thread. Are you saying you've correlated those ear tones to seismic activity in California/PNW? I don't usually get ear tones, but every once in a while, I'll get something. I haven't made any correlations yet.

Can you let us know which ear tones you're getting and what they correlate to, for you?

wow... so three people with ringing ears (same ears).

Soma, where you at in the world?

If anyone happens across any news items about the current Yellowstone swarm, please post the link.

MAP 2.0 2008/12/29 19:37:07 44.493 -110.366 1.0 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.2 2008/12/29 19:28:56 44.516 -110.375 1.6 60 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 3.3 2008/12/29 19:14:49 44.521 -110.369 1.8 60 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.5 2008/12/29 05:30:04 44.507 -110.371 0.8 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.2 2008/12/29 05:23:37 44.511 -110.369 1.2 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.9 2008/12/29 04:29:18 44.522 -110.385 1.0 59 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT

I was just looking over the last 200 EQ's at Yellowstone to get an idea of the frequency of swarms of these recent magnitudes. (You can also review EQ data going back decades.)

Yellowstone Earthquake Data Archives

It seems 1999 was a very active year. 2002 was also a very active year with a lot of 3.0 EQ's.

The lake location of this current swarm is interesting, when compared to the past years, but not unusual.

I also found interesting data regarding Steamboat Geyser, a lesser known geyser at Yellowstone (because it doesn't go off regularly, like OF, but it has increased its activity since 2000.

Steamboat Geyser

[edit on 12/29/08 by kattraxx]

Originally posted by kattraxx
If anyone happens across any news items about the current Yellowstone swarm, please post the link.

www.wctrib.com...

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, Wyo. — The University of Utah Seismograph Stations report a swarm of small earthquakes in Yellowstone National Park.

The university says the quakes of magnitude 3.5 and lower have been occurring beneath Yellowstone Lake, five to nine miles south-southeast of Fishing Bridge, a park landmark. The earthquakes that began on Friday and continued on Saturday intensified during the weekend, and there were reports that people in the Yellowstone Lake area felt the quakes.

The University of Utah says they've been in an area of the park where swarms are common.

Looks like the same article as the one above..from AP

www.kxmc.com...

Small earthquakes in Yellowstone

APNewsNow.

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, Wyo. (AP) The University of Utah Seismograph Stations report a swarm of small earthquakes in Yellowstone National Park.

The university says the quakes of magnitude 3.5 and lower have been occurring beneath Yellowstone Lake, five to nine miles south-southeast of Fishing Bridge, a park landmark. The earthquakes that began on Friday and continued on Saturday intensified during the weekend, and there were reports that people in the Yellowstone Lake area felt the quakes.

The University of Utah says they've been in an area of the park where swarms are common.

(Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press

[edit on 12/29/2008 by Telafree]