An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Originally posted by kattraxx
reply to post by soma_pills

 

Do you remember where the Nevada EQ/3.3 was located? I didn't see that one; not around the computer much today.

Just click the link I posted and it will show you on a map. Epi was near McDermitt, Nevada. I don't know if it briefly popped up on the USGS site or not. I never saw it if it did.

reply to post by soma_pills


Thanks, soma. I know there is a McDermitt caldera up that way. It seems EQ's in or near old calderas get deleted pretty quick.

Magnitudó 3.3 (Kicsi)
Dátum-idő [UTC] 2009 Január 07 22:43:12 UTC
McDermitt, Nevada

Magnitude 4.9 - MACEDONIA
2009 January 08 12:04:05 UTC

Here we go again...

A week after the fact, a 3.3 off the coast of northern California has popped up on the USGS map:

3.3
Date-Time
* Thursday, January 01, 2009 at 20:22:21 UTC
* Thursday, January 01, 2009 at 12:22:21 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 40.423°N, 125.966°W
Depth 4.9 km (3.0 miles) set by location program
Region OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by mountaindog


I was waiting and wondering why nothing showed up on the maps. It seems to happen too often, that I, and others, will get distinct precursors for a certain area, then nothing shows up on the maps. I guess by the time it does, if it does, we're onto something else. Thanks, Mt. Dog.

Magnitude 3.3
Date-Time Thursday, January 01, 2009 at 20:22:21 UTC
Thursday, January 01, 2009 at 12:22:21 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 40.423°N, 125.966°W
Depth 4.9 km (3.0 miles) set by location program
Region OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances 143 km (89 miles) W (275°) from Petrolia, CA




[edit on 1/8/09 by kattraxx]

Magnitude 2.7 - ARKANSAS
2009 January 07 20:32:55 UTC
Location 35.566°N, 92.574°W
Depth 0.1 km (~0.1 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region ARKANSAS

Distances 11 km (7 miles) WSW (258°) from Clinton, AR
25 km (16 miles) WSW (247°) from Shirley, AR
27 km (17 miles) NW (326°) from Damascus, AR
95 km (59 miles) NNW (347°) from Little Rock, AR

Interesting article in USA Today.

Earthquakes killed 88,070 people in 2008, the highest figure since 2004, reports the U.S. Geological Survey and the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

www.usatoday.com...


[edit on 1/8/09 by kattraxx]

I'm going to say we could see an EQ in the Bridgeport area of the California Sierras, probably in the mag range 2.8 up to 4.0, but more likely around 3.5, within the next three days. This would encompass Bridgeport, Ridgecrest, Mono Lakes, China Lakes, Mammoth Lakes, Bishop and Coso Junction.

It is 114am EST, I am having rushing sounds in my ears, like wind ( conch shell sounds) and headache above my ears and back of my head at the base.

12:20am pst.

left ear popping and pressure.
kinda like if you have water in your ear after swimming.


I think that kinda ear stuff is related to the west coast... so I don't think that the 4.4 will be the end of it...
maybe a 4 somewhere else (west coast of N/A)

[edit on 9-1-2009 by pynner]

reply to post by space cadet


353am, now I have a stomach ache as well. Pressure in my whole head too.

I'm getting some stuff as well. Headache on top of head, more like brief stabbing pain that went down to my right cheek (like an ice pick through the head from the top down but not THAT painful). Some really faint ear tones, very subtle, both ears, short and higher pitch so far. Pain in right elbow, brief. The other day had bad low back pain and then stomach issues (*may* have been the 4.5 in San Bernardino but I don't really think so).

My intuition is telling me SoCal, either Yucca Valley/desert area or south of Salton Sea/Imperial Valley into northern Baja. To get specific I'll say the area bordered by the 15, 10, 40 freeways/highways (so Big Bear to Yucca to Joshua Tree basically) or The Salton Sea to the Gulf.

I dunno, this is my first real attempt at guessing an actual location but that's what I am getting. I'll say within next 5 days for padding (1st time...a little cushion...lol) but likely next 3 days, minimum 4.0.

1:11am pst

same as spacecadet... head pressure.

Good morning all, I wanted to share something that happened last night, we were sleeping sound, then all of a sudden, sometime around 11:30 or so P.M., my daughter woke up screaming about her left side of her face hurt sooooo bad, she was begging me to make it stop.... i asked her exactly where it hurt, and it was her left side of face from ear to top of head..... we comforted her, and put a cold towel on her face, and she eventually fell back asleep wimpering... (its very heart-breaking when you have a little one on the eve of her birthday and she was in a lot of pain.... when she woke up she was fine, and said it was a funny kind of hurt(her exact words), she just turned 4 this morning.

I've had pressure and today i woke up feeling a head full of pressure, but after seeing the posts about the left side of head, I felt I should post this.

This San Bernadino EQ is not what I was picking up yesterday, although Ridgecrest isn't that far away. But this is still puzzling. I only had a little bit of the SoCal/L.A. area precursor-- not enough to distract me from the other precursors that were fairly intense yesterday. I was getting definite precursors of a volcanic origin and it sounds like all of you were as well.

The stomach pains shifted after I logged off yesterday, down more to the Ludlow, CA area, became more the low pelvic pains I had for Ludlow, CA's 5.0 EQ.

Oh, I see while I'm writing this that Yellowstone has had a 3.3, which obviously could account for the volcanic precursors of yesterday. I think the location of the stomach pains threw us off, and the intensity of the volcanic precursors overrode any others.

[edit on 1/9/09 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx


MAP 1.0 2009/01/09 19:02:38 37.300 -118.691 1.7 15 km ( 9 mi) SSW of Round Valley, CA
MAP 2.7 2009/01/09 18:26:04 37.620 -118.875 5.2 9 km ( 6 mi) ESE of Mammoth Lakes, CA
MAP 2.0 2009/01/09 18:24:51 37.620 -118.874 5.5 9 km ( 6 mi) E of Mammoth Lakes, CA
MAP 1.2 2009/01/09 10:45:49 37.591 -118.458 9.5 20 km ( 12 mi) E of Toms Place, CA
MAP 1.6 2009/01/09 06:20:37 37.372 -118.382 6.4 1 km ( 1 mi) NE of Bishop, CA
MAP 2.9 2009/01/09 01:45:18 36.001 -119.839 12.5 11 km ( 7 mi) E of Kettleman City, CA

Thanks for pointing out the Mammoth Lakes EQ's, Soma. Funny how Long Valley caldera starts up just when YS does.

I'm going to say Chile, Argentina or Boliva, within the next 3 days, a mag 4.2-5.5.

And there may be something larger coming to Yellowstone in the next 48-84 hours, something +4.0. I had some pretty intense volcanic precursors yesterday, some that are still pronounced, but others that have lessened.

I just started getting the same volcanic pain I had all day yesterday, same intensity. Keep an eye on YS.

After much discussion, I think we're looking at Yellowstone precursors for yesterday and today. And the reason we didn't recognize them as such is since we started this, we haven't seen any real activity (+4.5) at Yellowstone, so we just assumed the general volcanic precursors we've been getting were for the usual Yellowstone, Cleveland, Redoubt, Long Valley normal activity or any of the other stratovolcanoes in the world. Pretty routine, until yesterday, which was confusing until we saw the 3.3 in Yellowstone on the maps this morning.

So basically, yesterday was the first time any of us have experienced such intense volcanic precursors. And they are continuing today with the same intensity.

Like I said, none of us have experienced this before, so it's just an educated guess, more or less, but I'd say because these volcanic precursors have been and are today intense, that we can expect stronger activity at Yellowstone. Maybe something +4.0 minimum, could go up a bit higher. I think if it were higher than 5.0, we'd be in a lot more pain right now. But, like I said, we're guessing based on yesterday's pains, and the fact that we're having them again today, despite the 3.3.

reply to post by kattraxx

posted on 1/9/09 @ 12:09 PM single this post edit"quote" REPLY TO:
I'm going to say Chile, Argentina or Boliva, within the next 3 days, a mag 4.2-5.5

Magnitude 5.1 - OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
2009 January 09 22:43:29 UTC

I should add, volcanic activity may increase at Long Valley caldera, either in addition to, or instead of YS. I want to include LV caldera because this is the area I first predicted yesterday.

Edit to add: damntheptb, your daughter is sensitive too.

Edit to add: Magnitude 4.7 - ORURO, BOLIVIA
2009 January 09 06:28:35 UTC


[edit on 1/9/09 by kattraxx]

All the volcanic precursors are now gone. So, according to Charlotte, we should see the activity 11-72 hours from now.

A new precursor has kicked in-- very plugged ears-- they've never felt like this. I associate this with geothermal acitivity.

Edit to add: Kilauea volcano just updated to Level Orange.

volcano.wr.usgs.gov...

I hope it's not Kilauea we're picking up!

[edit on 1/9/09 by kattraxx]

Originally posted by soma_pills

...or The Salton Sea to the Gulf.

...I'll say within next 5 days for padding (1st time...a little cushion...lol) but likely next 3 days, minimum 4.0.

Replying to myself to remind me to lower my magnitude next time...lol. That said, I still think bigger stuff will pop in the next couple days or so. That region between the Salton Sea and the gulf is itching to throw something bigger IMO. It kind of bothers me though...something big down there could really mess up the bread basket that is the Imperial Valley...that All American canal system could be damaged or knocked out of commission by a high 6, low 7 if it were epicenter in the right spot.

MAP 3.0 2009/01/09 12:55:06 32.539 -115.252 10.0 24 km ( 15 mi) ESE of Mexicali, Mexico
MAP 3.2 2009/01/09 12:44:58 32.558 -115.246 10.0 23 km ( 14 mi) ESE of Mexicali, Mexico
MAP 3.3 2009/01/09 12:43:58 32.544 -115.256 10.0 23 km ( 14 mi) ESE of Mexicali, Mexico