An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

I wonder if OF goes off schedule before moderate EQ's like The Geysers in Northern California?

Apparently, OF's normal schedule is 50 to 90 minutes (I believe I'm remembering correctly.) I wonder if it's off schedule at all?

Anyone feel like watching the web cam for the next few hours to check?

[edit on 12/29/08 by kattraxx]

I can watch it for a few hours..whats thelink?

reply to post by Telafree


www.nps.gov...

Over the years, the length of the interval has increased, which may be the result of earthquakes affecting subterranean water levels. These disruptions have made the earlier mathematical relationship inaccurate, but have in fact made Old Faithful more predictable. With an error of 10 minutes, Old Faithful will erupt 65 minutes after an eruption lasting less than 2.5 minutes or 92 minutes after an eruption lasting more than 2.5 minutes.

[edit on 12/29/08 by kattraxx]

It doesnt seem to be a webcam, it just plays for a few minutes while a man's voice talks about geysers, the camera turns a circle and then stops. He does say that OF is every 90 minutes though

reply to post by Telafree


www.nps.gov...

Click on Launch Live WebCam. I think you have to start over every few minutes. I guess they don't want you watching for hours? Maybe we can find current eruption times logged somewhere.

[edit on 12/29/08 by kattraxx]

from the yellowstone thread:

I watched the Old Faithful webcam, and it errupted 5 minutes late (some 10 minutes ago). I'm not sure how accurate these predictions are, but they were 5 minutes off on the latest erruption.

reply to post by Telafree


I believe the schedule is "give or take" ten minutes. I think any deviation from its normal schedule would have to be very obvious.... either erupting every ten minutes or not for two hours, something like that.

Magnitude 3.9 - YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING
2008 December 28 05:15:56 UTC

Looks like they revised the location by a degree.

[edit on 12/29/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx


I'd like to see waveform data on some of these EQ's. Here's the list so far today:

MAP 1.9 2008/12/29 21:25:15 44.517 -110.340 0.9 63 km ( 39 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.1 2008/12/29 21:18:36 44.523 -110.353 1.0 62 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.9 2008/12/29 20:38:25 44.514 -110.381 2.1 60 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.3 2008/12/29 20:38:04 44.511 -110.385 2.3 60 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.4 2008/12/29 19:37:07 44.502 -110.366 1.8 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.9 2008/12/29 19:29:38 44.513 -110.381 0.5 60 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.5 2008/12/29 19:28:55 44.515 -110.381 0.0 60 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 3.3 2008/12/29 19:14:49 44.521 -110.369 1.8 60 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.5 2008/12/29 05:30:04 44.507 -110.371 0.8 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.4 2008/12/29 05:23:36 44.516 -110.361 6.4 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.9 2008/12/29 04:29:18 44.522 -110.385 1.0 59 km ( 37 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.8 2008/12/29 04:25:53 44.514 -110.370 0.1 61 km ( 38 mi) ESE of West Yellowstone, MT

It gets confusing because they are adding EQ's to the list for past days, and revising others and sending email notifications.

[edit on 12/29/08 by kattraxx]

Originally posted by kattraxx
reply to post by soma_pills

 

Soma, welcome to the thread. Are you saying you've correlated those ear tones to seismic activity in California/PNW? I don't usually get ear tones, but every once in a while, I'll get something. I haven't made any correlations yet.

Can you let us know which ear tones you're getting and what they correlate to, for you?

I am just now starting to try and correlate, yes. I've only recently started to pay close attention to the tones and I cannot honestly say that I am 100% sure that a tone = a specific area for a quake. I have a feeling that left versus right, high versus low pitch, and length all play a role. I simply don't have enough data at this point to accurately say for sure but am starting to make educated guesses based on the data I do have. I am hoping that the more tones I write down and the more I can correlate them to quake activity, I can start to make better guesses.

It's all HIGHLY unscientific at this stage.

As a side note, my grandmother had some kind of ability to sense earthquakes shortly before they happened. My Mom grew up in Salinas, CA which always has some small activity going on, and my grandma would always tell her and my aunts to 'get under the table girls' before any of them would feel anything. Sure enough, they'd get under a table or something and within 10 or so seconds the house would start to shake. I am so bummed that I never got to ask her how she knew this or what she felt (she's still alive but suffers from dementia), and my Mom and Aunts never asked her.

Anyway, great thread and I will contribute what little I can.

Originally posted by pynner
wow... so three people with ringing ears (same ears).

Soma, where you at in the world?

Sacramento, CA.

cool.. another westcoaster!

the more people we get trying to do this, the better off we'll be.

reply to post by soma_pills


I love the story about your grandmother. I'm sorry she's not well. I imagine it would be quite an experience to sit down and talk with her.

I'm so glad someone else who gets good ear tones has joined our "experiment". And please feel free to venture a prediction based on what you feel you've pinned down so far.

Do you get a particular ear tone for Yellowstone that you're aware of now?

I was getting tones in my right ear for the two weeks prior to christmas. Usually around 5-6am. They subsided though and I haven't had one in a few days now

My lovely vision is blurry today..so I'm betting on a quake in oregon/off the coast of oregon within 48 hours or so.



[edit on 12/30/2008 by Telafree]

reply to post by kattraxx


I don't think so, unless the last one I had was for that region as I have not seen a quake to match it yet. I tend to think that my tones have thus far been for events north or south of me on the west coast. I am pretty certain that tones are related to earthquakes but I have to say I am finding it hard to consistently figure out what quakes they correlate to. Most times I get a pretty obvious correlation, like a 4+ in socal or something offshore pacific northwest, but I really don't know for certain. Some people say tones can signal quakes much further away and at greater time lengths (up to a week) but something tells me my radar is more oriented for the energy of the west coast within 1-3 days or so of the tone...just what my gut tells me.

reply to post by soma_pills


When you get a good ear tone, would you describe it in detail to us? Maybe some others are getting the same thing, but don't equate it to a precursor.

Originally posted by kattraxx
reply to post by soma_pills

 

When you get a good ear tone, would you describe it in detail to us? Maybe some others are getting the same thing, but don't equate it to a precursor.

I never really had eartones at all in my life. I just noticed a few weeks ago because it was every morning. It was basically like my right ear would lose normal hearing and a low tone would take it's place. I never equated it with being a precursor to anything until i read about other people having the same thing happen on ATS.

reply to post by oldgoat


I've been getting the same thing in my right ear, along with a few stabs of pain in short series. I have noticed lately, that my ears will pop, then I will hear the low tone you mention, and it is usually my right ear the past week or so.

Thanks and keep us posted. It's always helpful to compare notes with others.

Magnitude 3.0 - NEVADA
2008 December 30 22:13:25 UTC
0 km (~0 mile) set by location program
Region NEVADA

Distances 24 km (15 miles) NNW (329°) from Battle Mountain, NV
46 km (29 miles) SSE (162°) from Getchell, NV
46 km (29 miles) WNW (288°) from Shoshone, NV

Caetano caldera, north central Nevada.

Nevada Supervolcano's Flesh Exposed

Feb. 7, 2008 -- The fault-riddled landscape of northern Nevada has sliced and diced the remains of one of the world's largest volcanoes, providing a rare chance to inspect the innards of the so-called "supervolcano."

The Caetano caldera was a 12-mile-wide crater after it erupted 33.8 million years ago and sent a catastrophic ejection of more than 270 cubic miles of molten, lathered rock into the air.

"This is an eruption very much on the scale as the Yellowstone eruption," said caldera volcano expert Peter Lipman of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The hot springs and geysers at Yellowstone National Park are remnants of the last catastrophic eruption there about 600,000 years ago.

Maybe no volcano is ever really extinct.






[edit on 12/30/08 by kattraxx]