An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Originally posted by kattraxx
reply to post by JustMike

 

JustMike, did you have any precursors? I'm going to guess no. I notice the depth of the 4.0 mag is that strange exact 10 km we see so often. Is this some kind of default depth they use, or what?

If you can find out more regarding the scientists telling the people that the tremors should last about a week, let us know. I find that fascinating and perplexing. I'm also intrigued by their statement relating the seismic activity to the movement of magma. Please do keep us posted on anything you discover.

Hi again,

I am not sure if I had any precursors. I know that might sound odd but I was feeling off-color for a few days and now I'm better; hard to say if it's related to this local seismic activity because such events here are comparatively rare.

The 10 km depth in this case doesn't seem to be just a "default depth" as is commonly the case with many USGS reports. I found an extract of the report about the magma research/hypothesis that gives a bit of info about this:

Magma Intrusions and Earthquake Swarm Occurrence in the Western Part of the Bohemian Massif

I can't access the whole article as it's on a member (fee-paying) basis, but I'll check around among some people I know and see if anyone can get a copy through a "free" source.

Regarding the statement that tremors could last up to a week (or even weeks), I got that from this news report. The headline reads VIDEO: Treti otres pod Chebskem mel 4 stupne Richtera, byl citit i v Praze.
Translation: Video: Third quake beneath Cheb had a 4 on the Richter scale, was even felt in Prague.

(Please note that I’m posting the Czech text without using Czech characters, because if you don’t have them loaded in your fonts it’ll look very weird.)

If you watch the video, there’ll be a ten-second ad before the news report starts. Just let it run. The report itself basically informs us that there has been some minor damage and that local people are worried. It ends by saying that scientists warn there could easily be a mag 5 in the region. However, this statement is journalistic license and goes against what the scientists actually say. They mostly consider that while a mag 5 might occur one of these days it’s about the upper limit, so there’s no way that the journo describing it as “easily” is near the mark. Possible? Yes. Even higher is possible. But we all know how the news reporting game works…

For our research purposes, though, the key statement in the text on that page (ie below the video) was made by Alena Bouskova from the Bureau of Geophysics at the Czech Academy of Sciences:

"Seismicka aktivita bude urcite pokracovat," uvedla Bouskove. "Urcite v radu dnu a nelze vyloucit, ze i tydnu," dodala.

Translation: “Seismic activity will definitely continue,” Bouskova advised. “Certainly for several days, and it cannot be ruled out that it will even be for weeks.”

Note that she is only stating what could be. It doesn’t have to continue for weeks. However, as the historical evidence shows that quake swarms tend to hit this area in roughly ten-year cycles and it’s been about 8 ½ years since the last swarm, the possibility of another swarm beginning is certainly reasonable. Here’s an article in not-too-awful English that gives a little more info:

Czech Republic hit by strongest earthquake since 1986

Mike

Edited to fix a link and some typos. If the edit works...

[edit on 12/10/08 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike


Hi JustMike, thanks for all the information. The scientists' statements sound very familiar to me. I found the Springer article as well while searching for information on the quake location. I'd love to know more about Komorni Hurka, but I can find only tourism sites that mention it briefly as a place of interest, and central Europe's youngest volcano, etc. Can you confirm that this was the epicenter of the 4.0? Has it been mentioned specifically in relation to the earthquakes?

Space Cadet, how are you feeling? There was 3.3, I believe, on the Utah/Wyoming border-- this would be Wasatch, same precursors as New Madrid. By the way, there hasn't been an email alert from Char in ten days or so.

I'm getting a fairly strong precursor for southern California. Anyone else? I'd say within 36 hours most likely.

Greece is due for an aftershock too, so I hope I'm not confusing them as I have before.

I had a dream last night about a volcano in the distance. I think I was in Seattle looking north and there was a big plume of smoke in the distance and to the left. Way up Puget Sound or way up another body of water. I also have a headache even after 3 ibuprofen. I don't put any weight in it but there you go.

reply to post by JustMike


I am located in the southeast of the United States, in Georgia, just below the Georgia/Tennessee state line. Our city sits at the foot of the Appalacian Mountians, in between a 300 million year old volcano about 80 miles south (Stone Mountian) and the ridges it formed (Blue Ridge Mountians). We are not in an area considered to be 'active' with earthquakes or volcanoes. When I first started paying attention was about 2 years ago, the first one I had ever felt in my life hit, shook the house, at work all our things were in the floor afterwards, nothing big, but I have lived here all my life and never thought that could or would happen here. Since then, it was one about every 6 months, now, one about every week, more than one some weeks. Definately not normal for this area.

reply to post by stikkinikki


Some activity around Mt St Helens: earthquake.usgs.gov...


Check this out, last 7 days: earthquake.usgs.gov...

I have a headache, my ears still ringing shrill, loud, still having visual disturbance/blurry vision, pressure in my head is immense.

Magnitude 3.4 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
2008 October 13 05:39:48 UTC

Magnitude 2.4 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
2008 October 13 19:01:42 UTC

Nothing huge, but this area seems more active than usual lately. From Palm Springs down to the border. Worth watching.

MAP 4.0 2008/10/13 04:10:09 39.249 21.444 38.0 GREECE

Charlotte says that Turkey usually goes after Greece.

MAP 1.8 2008/10/13 10:02:09 36.470 -89.550 9.2 8 km ( 5 mi) SE of Marston, MO

Space Cadet, do you feel something larger is on the way? Or have you felt this way in the past for numerous micros? Just wondering.


[edit on 10/13/08 by kattraxx]

My horse seems quite lively and far more excitable. Could be a lot of reasons for that, but thought I'd put it out there, she's not generally so energetic or spooky.

Hi, glad to see so many posts! Since waking up around 6 am today (Sunday, Oct 12 PST) I've been hearing what could be described as a sort of ringing in my ears... I'm thinking it's a high-pitched frequency of some sort ... anyone else getting this kind of thing? Kattraxx (or others), what are the symptoms for Yellowstone?

[edit on 13-10-2008 by mountaindog]

Interesting about your horse, Ballast. My house has creaked a couple times tonight and I had the main Sierra/Wasatch precursor today, so I'm hoping it's not going to be the Reno area.

Here's a relatively rare one:

4.0 Ml - TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION

And a couple more in Greece:

Magnitude 4.9 - GREECE
2008 October 14 02:06:38 UTC

Magnitude 4.5 - GREECE
2008 October 14 02:17:02 UTC

MountainDog, I have the same high pitched ringing in my ears. I thought maybe Mexico...

Magnitude 4.0 - OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
2008 October 14 15:10:39 UTC

Visual disturbances, Space Cadet.

Also, more in the Texas Panhandle.

MAP 3.7 2008/10/14 03:07:27 35.773 -100.718 5.0 11 km ( 7 mi) NW of Miami, TX

reply to post by mountaindog


I believe you were right, that our precursors were for Sierra/Wasatch, etc.

Magnitude 3.0 - NEVADA
2008 October 15 14:11:03 UTC

As Charlotte says, precursors for these regions tend to be far more intense than the resulting earthquake.

Edit to add: It's a good thing I copied the EQ info this morning-- because it's been deleted by USGS. Of course. It's in that area where the EQs are always deleted, or blamed on bizarre bouncing Antarctic earthquake waves...

Here's another, before they delete it. Just south of the first.

Magnitude 2.2 - NEVADA
2008 October 15 14:11:11 UTC

[edit on 10/15/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx


Mountaindog, your ear tones...
Magnitude 6.5 - OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO
2008 October 16 19:41:29 UTC

reply to post by kattraxx


Wow, that makes sense of the ear ringing now!! Thank you kattraxx. I see the earthquake in Mexico has now been upgraded to 6.6.

Magnitude 2.6 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2008 October 17 17:19:18 UTC

I'm going to say more offshore NorCal and Oregon. And maybe central California too, but I may be confusing overlapping precursors. Also, I expect a bit more in Mexico.

Forgot to add that there are "horsetail" type clouds all over the sky this morning, and the dogs have been snarly with each other too, so that makes me think South America, probably the usual suspects... Chile, or Bolivia getting their aftershock, or Argentina.

Edit to add:

Magnitude 2.0 - SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
2008 October 17 13:54:20 UTC

Magnitude 2.0 - SAN PABLO BAY, CALIFORNIA
2008 October 17 19:38:10 UTC

I think the bay area EQ is what I have confused with central California precursors. Perhaps more to come though.



[edit on 10/17/08 by kattraxx]

Also, today is the anniversary of the 1989 Loma Prieta 7.1 earthquake in the SF bay area. Actually, the epicenter was in the Santa Cruz mountains about an hour south of SF, but SF had the most damage. The bay area has been very quiet since then.

There's a lot of information on the Loma Prieta earthquake on this page, if you're interested.

Loma Prieta

reply to post by kattraxx


kattraxx, thanks for the link to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake - the pictures are both fascinating and scarey - I had no idea it was so bad!! It's a great reminder for those who live in earthquake zones to be prepared with water and other essentials (and extra food and water for pets!) for when the next big one hits.

Is anyone else experiencing an intense, persistent headache?

This is day four for mine, which is felt mostly in the right temple and eye and in the lower back of the right side of the head. That is where it's most painful, but it's a temple to temple headache as well.

Last time I had a headache for four days, there was a +7 EQ in Seattle on the fifth day. I'm not saying it'll be Seattle-- I can't recall now the details of that headache, but I do think this is not going to be a distant locale. When I'm able to further pin this down, I'll post again.

[edit on 10/19/08 by kattraxx]

For anyone who is interested, Charlotte King will be on the X Zone radio program this Tuesday evening at 9 p.m. Pacific time, to 10 p.m.

With so many sensitives currently reporting this particular headache, this program promises to be quite good.

Rob McConnell,
Host & Executive Producer,
The ‘X’ Zone Radio & TV Show
Distributed By REL-MAR Broadcast Network
Divisions of REL-MAR McConnell Media Company,
Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.

Office: (905) 575-5916

Skype: xzoneradiotv

Toll Free: 1-800-610-7035

Studio: 1-877-528-8255

www.xzoneradio.com

www.xzonetv.com

Well, I don't have a headache like you (thank goodness) but my right ear has been popping since late last night (Saturday). When I was working in the garden today my right ear would pop everytime I stood up... sometimes once every minute... it felt like pressure was being released with every pop.