An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

We did have a 2.6 here in Reno two or three days ago... not in Somersett, but across highway 80, about a mile from us, where the hot springs are.

As it turns out, my boyfriend is also earthquake sensitive and had some serious pain before the Kermadec Islands EQ last week. Absinthium and Solidago drops eased the pain considerably. Oddly, I didn't feel it too badly. We've both been getting central and South America quite a bit lately, and I've been confused as to why I was getting the main Oregon precursor but there hasn't been an EQ there, or offshore, which was my guess. As JustMike mentioned, there was an EQ offshore northern California last week, but according to the maps, it's quiet up that way.

This morning, I'm feeling South America again, I believe. Maybe Bolivia. A lot of us are still getting the Sierra/Wasatch region as well. And New Madrid has been shaking some-- are you feeling those precursors, Space Cadet?

reply to post by ballast


Ballast, where in Nevada are you-- roughly? Yes, damntheptb and I have been watching the odd patterns of EQs in Nevada and along the Sierras. Do you pick up precursors? Are you near any of the swarms? (Thanks for reading here.)

reply to post by kattraxx

I'm in No. Nv near the Pine Nut Mountains. I can't really tell on precursors, my health is too bad.

We do get earthquakes here, in fact there's an old indian legend about Hang a wee wee. He was a one eyed, one legged giant that jumped from mountain top to mountain top. I read it many years ago and about 10 years later there was a good sized earthquake centered precisely where he jumped peak to peak.

Generally, when we do get them they are of the over 4 variety. We had a large one one night and it sounded like a frieght train coming towards the house. Woke us bothe out of a dead sleep.

I've noticed down in CA lately there seems to be times when they aren't having a regular pattern of earthquakes. They are in fact noticeably absent. I find that more alarming than anything.

We have a firefighter in the family and they used to train for Mono going off. He was at Stateline, NV. They expected 500lb fly rocks-in Tahoe!

I've been keeping an eye on the animals, not much to reort there. My horse may be sensitive, but I'm not positive. Seems like she gets more vocal when the Reno crowd gets a good one.

This Oct. 7 stuff has my attention, so many totally different sources using totally different methods. Normally, I enjoy reading all the crazy predictions, but don't take them seriously. With the financial crisis, the trashing of our Constitution, I'm taking things a bit more serious. Sounds like you guys are, too.

Ballast, was your horse acting differently yesterday? Because there was a 4.2 in northern Nevada near North Fork. USGS deleted this earthquake without sending an earthquake deleted email. However, this earthquake did indeed happen, as you can read in the following Yahoo News report. So... the question is to USGS: why was this earthquake deleted from the maps when it clearly happened?

Tue Oct 7, 7:37 AM ET - Yahoo News

NORTH FORK, Nev. - A small-to-moderate earthquake has shaken rural northeastern Nevada, and there are no immediate reports of damage or injuries.

The magnitude-4.2 temblor struck at 3:07 a.m. Tuesday. It was centered 18 miles west of the town of North Fork.
An Elko County sheriff's deputy says there has been no word of any damage or injury.

news.yahoo.com...

The USGS Event Page is gone. There is no square on the map to mark this earthquake... so what is going on?

I believe I mentioned yesterday that many, including my bf and I, have been experiencing the main Sierra/Wasatch precursor.

Look what just popped up on Yahoo News.

Tue Oct 7, 9:21 AM ET

NORTH FORK, Nev. - Scientists say what appeared to be an earthquake in northeastern Nevada was actually a seismograph picking up waves from an earlier quake in the Arctic Ocean.

news.yahoo.com...

Presumably, this EQ:

Magnitude 5.6 - ARCTIC OCEAN
2008 October 07 10:00:48 UTC

earthquake.usgs.gov...

[edit on 10/7/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx


Howdy,

Actually, I was in your neck of the woods yesterday, so hard telling how my little "Dog" took it.

Kind of odd that that Artic earthquake registered so high here in NV. My son just mentioned that earthquakes can travel vertically into the core and bounce around, so maybe that's what happened.

Kids pretty good with physics-too bad the scholarships dried up.

I'm also reminded of the frieght train earthquake that came stright to the house. Clearly, it was a wave travelling accross the surface. A neighbor actually found a new fault in their yard.

UNR came out and did some research. Too bad earthqake insurance is so very expensive.

Nevada Supervolcano's Flesh Exposed
Larry O'Hanlon, Discovery News e-mail share bookmark print

Mt. Caetano Feb. 7, 2008 -- The fault-riddled landscape of northern Nevada has sliced and diced the remains of one of the world's largest volcanoes, providing a rare chance to inspect the innards of the so-called "supervolcano."

The Caetano caldera was a 12-mile-wide crater after it erupted 33.8 million years ago and sent a catastrophic ejection of more than 270 cubic miles of molten, lathered rock into the air.

"This is an eruption very much on the scale as the Yellowstone eruption," said caldera volcano expert Peter Lipman of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).....cont'd

dsc.discovery.com...

I believe the deleted EQ was in this region. I'm still trying to pinpoint the location, but I thought this was fascinating, just the same.

Edit to add: I forgot to mention that in the original USGS EQ email alert, the depth of the deleted EQ was just 16 km.

This deleted EQ would be in or quite near the Tuscarora volcanic fields, near as I can figure.

[edit on 10/7/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx

Hi Kat,

while it may be true that the Arctic region quake was detected in NV I do find it a highly convenient explanation on the part of the scientists. Yes, the theoretical P-wave times for the Arctic quake show that the P-wave would reach NV about 7 minutes later, but the epicentres and mags of quakes are determined by measuring seismic waves' arrival times from at least 3 seismographs in different locations, using triangulation methods (actually overlapping circles).

These days this process of identifying epicentres is done automatically so I am a bit puzzled as to how the sensing equipment and related automated programmes identified a NV epicentre unless there was a "bounce" effect that literally caused a tremor there. It's known that larger quakes routinely produce smaller ones in other places (even on the other side of the world), so why they have to deny that this might have happened in the Arctic/NV case is a mystery to me.

It would be interesting to see if any locals in the region of the "officially non existent" NV tremor actually reported feeling anything. I assume a low mag 4 could be noticed by some people.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike

It would be interesting to see if any locals in the region of the "officially non existent" NV tremor actually reported feeling anything. I assume a low mag 4 could be noticed by some people.

Other than homes, there is nothing out that way-- I checked yesterday. The only listings for businesses or even the sheriff's department, are in Elko, which is some distance from the epicenter location. In the original Yahoo News article, the sheriff was "interviewed" and said there was no damage from the earthquake. This leads me to believe they felt something or the sheriff would have said, "What earthquake?" This seems reasonable to me. The original Yahoo News article disappeared within five minutes of posting it here and was replaced with the Arctic quake story.

The thing that makes me question this disappearing earthquake is the fact that this is the general region, northeastern Nevada, where earthquakes always seem to disappear. Why? If it was a problem with equipment, couldn't it have been dealt with by now? Why always this region?

And I'd still like to know why the earthquake I felt here in Reno last month at 10:45 p.m. was never listed on any USGS maps. It was at least a 3.5 magnitude if it was on the Mogul fault. A friend told me it was mentioned on local news the next morning... still, as far as USGS was concerned, it never happened. At least not in Reno. Maybe it was "moved" away from here. Who knows?

As far as contacting someone living in North Fork, Nevada, if anyone has any ideas or can do this, let us know your result.

Also, I noticed the house creaking and popping a lot in the past 24 hours.

And I'd still like to know why the earthquake I felt here in Reno last month at 10:45 p.m. was never listed on any USGS maps. It was at least a 3.5 magnitude if it was on the Mogul fault. A friend told me it was mentioned on local news the next morning... still, as far as USGS was concerned, it never happened. At least not in Reno. Maybe it was "moved" away from here. Who knows?

Also, I noticed the house creaking and popping a lot in the past 24 hours.

I felt that quake also, and there was no way we imagined it.....

my house has been LOUDLY creaking all day and night, especially at night..... a couple creaks and pops, had me checking the house, cuz it sounded like something hit us.....

my wife said she felt a quake the night of the "disapearing elko area quake", cept she felt it around 10 or 11 pm, it scared her, and she immediatly woke me up.......

have you guys noticed anything odd about the CA earthquake "pattern"? I can't quite put my finger on it, but something is different. At first I thought there were less earthquakes, but the total of CA/NV is higher.

We (NV) have more, but the total is higher than to account for them. Seems to me the average total used to be 238 and now it's closer to 300. Obviously, that's not it.

Have any of you noticed a different pattern? How so?

Hey guys, it's been awhile since I posted anything on this particular thread, I have had a lot going on lately. I have come on tonight to post because my symptoms are strong, and I want post it in case they are precursors for today. Sudden onset of headache, with visual disturbance, very blurry vision. Myhead hurts from one side to the other, and my ears are ringing very loud, very very shrill, but with a low tone too. My chest/heart feels heavy. Upper back ache, between the shoulder blades. All this hit at once around 5:00am Sat morning.

edit to ask: Why does my post say it is 4:20?

[edit on 11-10-2008 by space cadet]

Hi Space Cadet, good to see you. Do you think your precursors are the same as they've been for your region-- New Madrid, or are you thinking somewhere else?

I just popped on to post the following:

Magnitude 3.1 - SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
2008 October 10 23:19:10 UTC

This was in the east bay. That fault worries me and has for some time.

And, we're still shaking here, explaining the house creaking and popping now and then. Notice the depth on these EQ's... 0.0 and the location is a couple miles south of the swarm epicenter at the Lawton hot springs location.

MAP 1.1 2008/10/11 02:11:56 39.461 -119.946 0.0 6 km ( 4 mi) S of Verdi-Mogul, NV
MAP 1.2 2008/10/11 01:56:32 39.489 -119.937 0.0 3 km ( 2 mi) SSE of Verdi-Mogul, NV

Ballast, what's your take on the EQ patterns in California/Nevada? Any ideas? Remember back when the Mogul swarm was going strong, the EQ count for CA/NV was over 1000, most of them here. I haven't been watching long enough to say that these aren't normal patterns, but it seems the geothermal areas are pretty active these days. Most of the times that I google an EQ location, it turns out to be a geothermal area... hot springs nearby.

reply to post by kattraxx


I generally keep an eye on the CA/NV image map. I look at that and the 2.5 and over world list.

I can't figure out why it looks different exactly, but it has something to do with the way the pattern appears.

Where's Stan Deyo when we need him?

Then again, I suppose it could just be the "willies" from the global meltdown, Oct. 7, October Surprise or Constitution being trashed and the rest of the ACTUAL horror taking place around the globe.

reply to post by kattraxx


I am not sure if the precursors are the same or not, they were certainly intense, and the headache just WON'T go away! Nor the ear ringing! I was relieved of the ringing for about 15-20 minutes this evening (Saturday) around 11:30 pm, then it set in again just as loud. My back is better, no pain there tonight, but still visual disturbance and headache.

I see that there seems to be more and more eastern activity, and that is unusual, I know I have been tracking these for months now, and here lately it is a regular occurance to have them every week in Tennessee!

Katt I have emailed Char a few more times, she still isn't sending out her alerts to me , I got the one then nothing!

Hi people,

well we've had some tremors here in the Czech Republic. The strongest were last Friday. Only around a mag 4.0, but that's considered out of the ordinary for this part of the world. They were centred in the western part of the country north a city named Cheb (pronounced something like "Keb") in the town of Novy Kostel ("New Church") and caused some cracking in buildings and woke people up. Some people even felt them here in Prague -- roughly 120 km (75 miles) away.

Scientists predict that the quakes will continue for up to a week. How they know this I have no idea but that's what they say...

I have various links but as they're in Czech I don't suppose they'll be much use to most of you However, if anyone wants more info about this, or about a scientific study that was done a few years ago that linked a quake swarm in that region to magma, let me know and I'll give the links and translate the pertinent bits.

The local English-language weekly paper should have something about the quakes when it comes out next Wednesday. If so, I'll post details and a link to their online version.

Mike

Edit to add: In one of the news videos I've found they interview local people in Novy Kostel, who expressed their worries as they don't know if they should leave or stay put. I think this is partly because buildings in Central Europe have never really been designed to be earthquake-resistant. Many are hundreds of years old and in various states of repair, but even the newer ones have not been built to meet some kind of minimum standards of quake resistance as there are none. So, if we ever have a larger quake -- say anything much over a mag 5 -- there will be quite a lot of damage.

[edit on 12/10/08 by JustMike]

reply to post by space cadet

Space cadet, please forgive my memory, but could you say approximately where you are, explaining it for someone who doesn't live in the US and isn't so familiar with where everything is? Thanks,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Wow, I was surprised as well, to see the EQ on the Czech/German border this morning.

JustMike, did you have any precursors? I'm going to guess no. I notice the depth of the 4.0 mag is that strange exact 10 km we see so often. Is this some kind of default depth they use, or what?

If you can find out more regarding the scientists telling the people that the tremors should last about a week, let us know. I find that fascinating and perplexing. I'm also intrigued by their statement relating the seismic activity to the movement of magma. Please do keep us posted on anything you discover.

SpaceCadet, I've also been keeping an eye on the seismic activity out East. Interesting. You keep us posted as well. I'm watching closely to see just what it is you're picking up now. You're in Georgia, right?

Near as I can figure, the seismic activity on the Czech-German border was in the Cheb Basin of Western Bohemia where the "youngest volcano in central Europe", the Komorni Hurka, is located. From what I could gather, a 4.0 magnitude is quite rare, but EQ swarms have occurred. Maybe JustMike will find out more for us.

Hi Katt,

that one this morning was a new one. The one last Friday just missed the minimum mag 4.0 cutoff for display on the USGS world maps.

From what I've been able to gather, the predictions that the tremors would last for about a week are based on historical experience. ("Historical" in the scientific sense, meaning anything documented prior to today.)

I'll get to work on making a post relating to what scientists have been saying. It'll take a while to do the translating and write it all up.

Be back later,

Mike