An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by pynner

Many, many thanks for the U2U with the clipping. I'm not familiar with webbot and had actually never heard of it. I'll need to find out more as it's both fascinating and rather creepy.

From the point of view of this thread, if it turns out to be even anywhere near accurate it is something we need to know a lot more about.

Mike

"Overall: they're pretty right on some factors but dubious on others, especially the "liquefaction" and "compression waves" stuff."

-well, liquefaction will more than likely happen even in a smaller quake. large parts of vancouver (richmond) are built on wet silt/sand.. buildings sink now as it is. so I see that happening.

-the compression wave (maybe I had that wrong), I could also see happening.. but I think that would be more about location than anything.

"Did they mention the tsunami that would likely follow a mag nine on that fault line, by the way? Maybe I missed it, but that's how we know the date the last big one occurred there (on 26 Jan 1700), because of the tsunami it produced. It was recorded in Japan. The tsunami is potentially the single most dangerous element of such an event on the Juan d/Nth Amer fault junction. It could be over thirty feet high -- like the last one was."

-Yes, they did say in the second to last "run" there would be a rather large tsunami that hit the west coast because of these quakes.

"I'm hoping they are wrong on this. Having seen what's happened after hurricanes Katrina and Ike, I don't think the US emergency services are really up to handling something that would potentially be far more destructive than they were."

-I agree, I hope they are wrong... but I just don't think they are.. we are just due here in the PNW.. we take that chance living on the ring of fire.

give that clipping a read and let me know what ya think..

Originally posted by mountaindog
Thanks very much, Mike. I always enjoy reading your posts.

Pynner, thanks! Can't send you a U2U because I don't have 20 posts yet.

Mountaindog,

many thanks for your kind comments. I'm grateful for the encouragement.

I see you have 17 posts, so you only need three more and then you can send those mystical U2U's!

To keep things on topic , you implied that you are in the PNW at the present time. If you are able to divorce your thoughts enough, do you have any feeling that something impending? I'm sure we who are not in that region would be be glad for any observations you'd care to make.

Originally posted by pynner
-well, liquefaction will more than likely happen even in a smaller quake. large parts of vancouver (richmond) are built on wet silt/sand.. buildings sink now as it is. so I see that happening.

Oh, no argument there. Maybe I didn't put my words so well as I should have. I was referring to the concept of hundreds of miles of land liquefying as being a continuous stretch. Having now re-read what you sent me I'd have to say that it could be taken to mean "within a range of hundreds of miles (or even hundreds of square miles)", which could well happen where the ground conditions allow for it. My apologies if I seemed to be saying that no liquefaction could occur. It wasn't my intent so I hope it didn't come across that way.

-the compression wave (maybe I had that wrong), I could also see happening.. but I think that would be more about location than anything.

Yes...I was thinking about this as well. Do you recall the videos of the Asian Tsunami? Some showed the wave/s breaking and omg they were loud!! A very big, breaking wave could cause hearing problems (hopefully only temporarily). This would be due to a combination of compression and concussion effects.

I saw your confirming note in your post about the tsunami but haven't located the details yet in their text. Bear with me...I'm new to this style of presenting things (ie webbot). Makes sense though that a tsunami would follow as they have been one of the indicators of past events that geologists and others have been able to study in great detail. (e.g. Salt water from tsunamis flooding into inland freshwater lakes in Oregon.)

Again, many thanks for providing this information.

Mike

hey JM... the tsunami ref was in one of the many other "runs" they have done... I will have to go back and try and find it.. they tend to spit out alot of data.

when I find the snippet, I will post it.

Originally posted by JustMike

Originally posted by mountaindog
you implied that you are in the PNW at the present time. If you are able to divorce your thoughts enough, do you have any feeling that something impending? I'm sure we who are not in that region would be be glad for any observations you'd care to make.

Hi JustMike, thanks for your post. It's fairly overcast here today so I can't check for earthquake clouds. No ear-popping like the last time I was here at the end of August when there were the 100+ earthquakes off northern Vancouver Island.

I woke up with a bothersome headache which is rare for me. I noticed in Charlotte's last email she's suffering from a severe migraine... it would be interesting to know how many others have migraines and headaches today.

MAP 1.9 2008/09/25 12:34:51 40.570 -124.548 0.2 24 km ( 15 mi) W of Ferndale, CA
MAP 2.3 2008/09/25 05:44:08 40.798 -124.109 19.9 2 km ( 1 mi) ENE of Myrtletown, CA
MAP 1.9 2008/09/25 02:22:58 40.667 -124.359 26.4 13 km ( 8 mi) NW of Ferndale, CA
MAP 2.9 2008/09/24 21:39:49 40.458 -124.732 20.7 41 km ( 25 mi) WNW of Petrolia, CA
MAP 2.3 2008/09/19 05:31:02 40.422 -124.475 22.6 19 km ( 12 mi) NW of Petrolia, CA

Much earlier in this thread we posted a lot of information about this particular area south of the Juan de Fuca ridge and the Blanco and Mendocino fracture zones.

wanted to say; the ringing in my ears is back..

not the riging sound you get when you lose hearing... but just a really high pitch ring that fades in and out.

reply to post by pynner


Same here-- more to come in Mexico perhaps. We all feel there will be a big seismic event soon, but not sure where just yet. Stay tuned.

I believe I'm getting Oregon, possibly offshore... including offshore northern California. Today, and the past couple days, have been those types with so many precursors, that it's confusing.

Thanks for the confirmation on one of them, pynner.

Updating the precursors... fairly intense and persistent vertigo right now, and the high pitched tone in my ears has gotten to its peak. I will say definitely Mexico, and a larger mag than the last one. Within 24 hours, generally, for me.

Still saying Oregon +5.0 or offshore in that area I call the Juan de Fuca complex. Not as certain yet on this one as I am Mexico.

Originally posted by kattraxx
Updating the precursors... the high pitched tone in my ears has gotten to its peak. I will say definitely Mexico, and a larger mag than the last one. Within 24 hours, generally, for me.

i AGREE with you completely, i have had a lot of confusing precursers, but the ringing has definitly gotten to a peak......
I dont have any vertigO, BUT the ringing is there

Right now, both my bf and I are getting Sierra/Wasatch precursors big time. Could be the current Yellowstone activity. SpaceCadet, how about you? Are you picking up anything? It could always be around New Madrid, but going with plain old statistics, I'd have to go with Sierra/Wasatch. Not Reno, I hope, I hope.

The tuning fork tone has backed off considerably, so let's see what happens in and around Mexico in the next 11 to 24 hours.

MAP 1.5 2008/09/25 17:30:10 44.237 -110.794 1.1 44 km ( 27 mi) ENE of Warm River, ID
MAP 1.5 2008/09/25 17:29:31 44.235 -110.799 0.8 43 km ( 27 mi) ENE of Warm River, ID
MAP 2.4 2008/09/25 15:44:48 44.236 -110.780 0.4 45 km ( 28 mi) ENE of Warm River, ID
MAP 1.6 2008/09/25 15:44:23 44.241 -110.795 1.0 44 km ( 27 mi) ENE of Warm River, ID
MAP 1.3 2008/09/25 09:33:27 44.627 -110.666 6.6 35 km ( 22 mi) E of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 1.2 2008/09/25 03:03:41 44.626 -110.667 6.8 35 km ( 22 mi) E of West Yellowstone, MT
MAP 2.3 2008/09/25 00:41:48 44.630 -110.668 6.4 35 km ( 22 mi) E of West Yellowstone, MT


[edit on 9/25/08 by kattraxx]

Originally posted by mountaindog
Hi JustMike, thanks for your post. It's fairly overcast here today so I can't check for earthquake clouds. No ear-popping like the last time I was here at the end of August when there were the 100+ earthquakes off northern Vancouver Island.

I woke up with a bothersome headache which is rare for me. I noticed in Charlotte's last email she's suffering from a severe migraine... it would be interesting to know how many others have migraines and headaches today.

Okay, good to hear you're not getting hammered with symptoms, though headaches are no fun of course. My own feeling is that some more activity is due off the coast of Oregon within the next few days or so... But that seems to be the common feeling on here right now. I don't feel anything major is imminent in that region but there could be several smaller events. Around the mag 4 range most likely.

I'm looking at two places in particular. The northern section of the eastern Juan de Fuca plate boundary off Oregon and towards Vancouver island (meaning the one nearer the Oregon coast), and the more central area of the Juan d. plate itself. True, we could see some activity along the plate's southern/se edges because they are also pretty active at times but I'm more concerned about those other two regions I've mentioned as IMHO they would be stronger indicators of something bigger potentially coming up. It's the eastern side of the Juan d. that's subducting so that's what we we need to watch.

Regards,

Mike

Magnitude 3.2 - COLORADO
2008 September 25 16:55:35 UTC

Apparently this area, La Veta, Colorado is the site of a couple 25 million year old "would be" volcanoes. That's the theory anyway.

These were two volcanoes, that never became volcanoes. They pushed up under the earth but never erupted. In time, as the earth eroded, the mountains were left looming above the valley.

www.rickytims.com...

Also, the Mammoth Lakes area is very active lately...

.7 2008/09/25 23:42:03 37.574 -118.868 5.3 12 km ( 7 mi) SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA
MAP 2.4 2008/09/25 23:19:37 37.342 -118.551 9.5 9 km ( 6 mi) SSE of Round Valley, CA
MAP 2.5 2008/09/25 22:43:23 37.338 -118.546 11.0 9 km ( 6 mi) WSW of West Bishop, CA
MAP 1.4 2008/09/25 15:24:20 37.591 -118.847 9.2 13 km ( 8 mi) ESE of Mammoth Lakes, CA
MAP 2.4 2008/09/25 10:05:42 37.545 -118.817 11.8 12 km ( 8 mi) W of Toms Place, CA
MAP 1.0 2008/09/24 23:49:18 37.506 -118.832 8.1 15 km ( 9 mi) WSW of Toms Place, CA
MAP 1.1 2008/09/24 14:57:48 37.538 -118.857 7.3 15 km ( 10 mi) SE of Mammoth Lakes, CA



[edit on 9/25/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx


Magnitude 4.5 - OFF THE COAST OF JALISCO, MEXICO
2008 September 26 03:39:23 UTC

Not a higher magnitude tho. Maybe more to come.

We did have the Wasatch region EQ, the one in Colorado today.

Magnitude 4.0 - CHIAPAS, MEXICO
2008 September 27 16:56:32 UTC

Here is the large event that's been building the past week...

Magnitude 7.3 - KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
2008 September 29 15:19:32 UTC

Hopefully, we'll be feeling a bit better now that it has hit.

Gee, where is everybody? I was a regular viewer on this thread. Have you all moved, disappeared? I'm in NV.

Haven't you noticed the many recent earthquake trends?

How are you all feeling?

Is there a reason you quit?

Nobodies quitting... ha ha , life has been crazy lately for most of us I'm sure.

I have been getting mixed precursers, so I have been doing more research in patterns, etc.
I still personally beleive something big is about to pop, but outside of a serious gut instinct, all i can do is wait.....

reply to post by ballast

No, we're not quitting. But sometimes there are other distractions. Right now the most seismic activity seems to be on Wall St... Everyone's getting shaken up pretty badly on the economic front. (I'm not speaking in jest as I know this is a very serious situation. And what affects you in the US affects us over here as well.)

On the subject of real earthquake patterns and trends, sometimes we have to watch and see what's developing. There has been some activity off the coast of California recently, but nowhere near as much as there was in that region (and up into Oregon) until fairly recently. It makes me wonder if everything that happens actually makes it onto the maps. Well, we know that some things appear then get taken down, but that was mainly in relation to quakes in Nevada, where it seems to happen pretty regularly.

I'd also like to know how you folks in NV and around there are feeling and getting on. Think about you often.

Mike