An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

For the first time that I can remember my dog was very alert to something that was not right and she came to me for protection or she just wanted to protect me but she was worried for sure.

My girlfriends headache has got a little worse today. The doctors are refusing to do a CAT scan because its just a headache. Since when is it not a good idea to do a scan when someone has had a headache constant in the same place for two weeks? I hope she is just picking up on something not right with nature because I do not want anything to be wrong in that beautiful head of hers.

I seen that the USGS took down every quake in the Vancouver Island area today except one that was a 4.1

Hello all, this has been a hectic week for me, I have friends down from Tennessee to see their mom, she has been diagnosed with colon cancer, and my house has been open to their family members to come and eat, sleep, bathe, ect. I loved getting to help them out, wish the situation had been better though.

I wanted to post that all 4 of my dogs were throwing up before I came into work tonight, they just threw up clear fluid, and the pup was getting up under the coffeetable, not something she ever does. The chihuahua was much more on edge than usual ( I give her room for being a chihuahua, lol!)

As for me, pain in my lower legs, lower back pain, both sides, more like kidney rather than back. Pain between the shoulder blades. Suprisingly my ears aren't ringing loud, just lightly, but they keep popping.

I just checked the usgc site, I am a little worried about seeing all the yellow boxes and only a few orange, no red ones. Wouldn't that seem to indicate pressure building!

Originally posted by space cadet

I wanted to post that all 4 of my dogs were throwing up before I came into work tonight, they just threw up clear fluid

My dog has been throwing up clear liquid in little bits for the last couple weeks, at first i thought it was because he was such an active hyper beagle, and the heat around reno, but it has cooled off, and it seems he is NEEDING more attention or reassurance lately, and he has gone from sleeping to completely wound up in less than 10 seconds in the middle of the night a few times in the last week.

I read a post earlier that talked about a vibration in the lower legs, and I had that exact feeling a couple hours before the quake that Kattraxx felt the other night (that never was reported). It felt like i had electricity flowing from my feet up my leg and down.. lasted for at least 15 seconds when I stood still.

Damntheptb, same here with my dogs, off and on, especially the older one.

Magnitude 4.1 NEVADA
2008 September 06 11:28:34 UTC

SpaceCadet, keep us posted on your New Madrid precursors.

reply to post by Sky watcher


Skywatcher, my bf and I have had headaches for a couple weeks now as well. Mostly upon waking in the morning. What are your gf's like? What location exactly? Our's are temple to temple, under the eyes.

We've also been getting those weird "hot flashes" a couple times a day too. Charlotte has been getting reports of these odd "hot flashes" from many people, both male and female of all ages, for the past couple months, and she's been doing some research, trying to figure out what it's all about. She'll let us know in her email alerts when she does.

There was also this EQ last night, near Mt. Diablo.

Magnitude 4.0 - SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
2008 September 06 04:00:15 UTC

reply to post by kattraxx


I just noticed that the 4.1 north of Gerlach, Nevada is not on the USGS maps anymore. I had the exact same stomach ache that I had before the 4.2 in Smoke Creek, Nevada twice, and did mention Sierra precursors on this thread two or so days ago... so, as far as I'm concerned, that EQ happened. Just like the one we had the other night at 10:44 pm, which was not a micro, but a pretty good temblor, that never even made an appearance on the EQ maps. Also, not forgetting the 3.2 on the northeastern Nevada/Idaho border that disappeared within hours. Why are they doing this?

Magnitude 3.2 - UTAH
2008 September 07 02:12:11 UTC

Magnitude 3.0 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2008 September 06 18:34:47 UTC

Offshore northern California, Petrolia again. And I thought I'd post the Utah EQ since it'll probably disappear later. Other than these, it's pretty quiet lately.

I dunno if I would say things are quite..

M 7.0, Vanuatu

Date:
Monday, September 8, 2008 18:52:08 UTC
Tuesday, September 9, 2008 05:52:08 AM at epicenter
Depth:
121.80 km (75.68 mi)



M 6.2, Vanuatu

Date:
Monday, September 8, 2008 03:03:16 UTC
Monday, September 8, 2008 02:03:16 PM at epicenter
Depth:
35.00 km (21.75 mi)



plus it seems that there have been a bunch in N/A over 2.0
some seem to dissapear, some show up as orange or yellow only.

we know why!

Originally posted by JustMike
Prediction:

This is my first one in a while but it's just come up. I'm expecting something noteworthy in the region of Taiwan within seven days. Magnitude around 6 or higher I would say. Co-ordinates around the region of 24 N and 122 E. (Give or take a couple of degrees.) Most likely region appears to be along the eastern side of the island or offshore from the eastern side but I am not so certain on that, to be honest. Just seems most likely.

Okay so I posted that on Aug 28 and I've quoted the whole post here because I feel it's relevant. Now, there was a Mag 3.4 within Taiwan Island (in the eastern fault line there) a couple of days later but it wasn't big enough to claim as close enough to what I expected. However, today there was a mag 5.3 in the Taiwan region, at co-ordinates 24.636°N, 122.610°E.

Granted, this is a few days outside of my prediction window, which can negate its worth as a prediction, but it's within 1 level of magnitude and only about 0.6 degrees of latitude and longitude from my stated reference co-ordinates. So, I thought it best to mention as it could be useful data for future assessment purposes.

Mike

EDIT to add: Oh btw I forgot to mention: today's quake is offshore from the eastern side of Taiwan island.

[edit on 9/9/08 by JustMike]

Hmmm... I wanted to add a bit more to the above posted but I guess it's cached already or something so it won't allow it.

I just thought it worth mentioning that although I'm not personally claiming a hit on this one because today's Taiwan quake missed my time window by nearly four days, there's an interesting statistic that could be worth noting. According to the earthquake density map, the region of that quake experiences an average of 1 mag-5 or greater quake per year. Therefore, taking that 11 days elapsed between my posted prediction and this quake, the odds of a quake of that size occurring purely by chance in the region I specified are 11/365, or near as dammit to 1/33 -- which is around 3%. So, while it's not a "hit" by my own standards it's still of statistical interest and the data could be worth noting for any future studies.

Gee I might have said that earlier... Sorry 'bout that...

Because the USGS data pages and maps etc for quakes drop off after a week and the links usually go dead, here are screen shots related to the above Taiwan quake:

Data Page:


Quake Density Map of Region:


Physical Map of Region:


Mike

NOTE: The first two images posted here are truncated on the right side due to bordering restrictions on this page. To see the whole images, just right-click on them and them click on "view image" in the drop-down menu you get.

[edit on 9/9/08 by JustMike]

I'm busy today...

A correction to my post with the stats. That stat of one mag 5-plus per annum was for quakes at a depth of 70-100km. For quakes of all depths, the frequency is higher. In that precise location it's 2 p/a, and close to an area where the range is from three to four per annum.

At "all depths", then, the odds of a mag 5-plus occuring in that location by chance are around 6% for the time range figures I gave. For the three to four p/a region it's 9% to 12%. So, still not a weekly occurrence but a bit more likely.

Here's the "all depths" map. (Which on the USGS site is posted below the 70-100 km depth map -- that's why I missed it until I went back for another look after realizing the depth):




As I stated before, please right-click on the image and go to "view image" to errrmm... view the whole image.

My my my, what a busy day for earthquakes! I am not suprised at all anymore by my conditions, I went to bed early last night, overcome with a headache and visual disturbance I checked in about 9:30, I woke early this morning ( 9/10/08) and my head was hurting worse than the night before. A couple of Goody's powders and I figured the caffeine ( what is that, 500 ml caffiene, lol) would wake me up and get me going after the headache stopped. It helped for a while, but I was so sleepy I couldn't stay awake, I slept until time to come to work. Well, I am at work now, it is 11:11, and my head is easing up a little bit, ears ringing super loud, and I see that this earth has been doing a lot of shaking today! I notice though that the UCGS is not up to date on all the quakes. Or Iris siesmic.

Well, the relative seismic calm seems to have ended dramatically in the past 24 hours. Charlotte made a couple interesting observations in this morning's email alert... one, that CERN started up yesterday, and two, that the USGS magnitudes are generally lower than the Tsunami Warning Center's reports of the same EQ's. Just fyi. Also, as usual, Charlotte's accuracy in predicting seismic activity still astonishes.

Perhaps the activity in the past 24 hours explains all the recently experienced headaches, anxiety, restlessness/sleeplessness of the past two weeks or so.

Originally posted by kattraxx
Charlotte made a couple interesting observations in this morning's email alert... one, that CERN started up yesterday, and two, that the USGS magnitudes are generally lower than the Tsunami Warning Center's reports of the same EQ's.

To be fair, CERN didn't actually do anything yesterday.. im not sure why people are so confused on the date. they warmed CERN up... checked it out but didn't do any smashing.. so I really doubt that had to do with it.

But one area I agree with you is how there always seems to be 2 strength readings..

it amazes me how much energy is put into hiding things.


Looking at the IRIS map always worries me on days like this... there are red circles everywhere but here in N/A.. we seem to be the only place not moving again... can't be good.

Good morning all, its 10:15 am on friday the 12th of sep.

I am feeling severe left kidney/lower back pain, it started all of a sudden while I was sitting, and is VERY intense.

I am looking at south-eastern nevada towards salt lake city, and something bigger than 3.0, timeframe on this one is within 24 hours from now....

I hope this isnt the start of some larger quakes in the USA, they have been popping off elsewhere on the planet.

Another offshore Washington:

Magnitude 4.4 - OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON
2008 September 14 06:33:49 UTC

The list so far:

MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km LOCATION
MAP 4.4 2008/09/14 06:33:49 47.853 -128.478 10.0 292 km (182 mi) W of Neah Bay, WA
MAP 3.9 2008/09/12 13:17:28 47.822 -127.943 10.0 254 km (158 mi) WSW of Neah Bay, WA
MAP 4.8 2008/09/11 23:26:29 47.919 -128.428 10.0 287 km (178 mi) W of Neah Bay, WA
MAP 4.6 2008/09/11 23:13:36 47.929 -128.408 10.0 285 km (177 mi) W of Neah Bay, WA
MAP 4.5 2008/09/11 21:17:32 47.986 -128.481 10.0 290 km (180 mi) W of Neah Bay, WA

These offshore quakes are interesting-- all these concentrated swarms taking turns... that area still bothers me, the Cascadia subduction zone.

I'm wondering if we should expect something here in Reno-- nothing big, but the house has been creaking the past couple days and I'm hearing Sierra precursors from quite a few people. And those odd clouds were hanging over Verdi/Mogul all day. The Sierras in general seem very active, as are many geothermal areas in California. Something's cooking. Either for Nevada or California. Utah has been having their share of micro EQ's lately too.

Hi everyone,
My ears have been popping / cracking for a few days now. The last time this happened was when there were 100+ earthquakes off the coast of northern Vancouver Island at the end of August. Do you think the popping/cracking could be related to the activity off the coast of northern Washington / southern Vancouver Island right now? I'm watching those quakes with great interest as I'm heading back to Vancouver Island in a week and wish I didn't have to. Charlotte mentioned in her latest email that Canada is due for more quake activity between the 14th and 22nd of the month.

Hello all! This evening is bringing with it for me: stabbing under right rib pain, and headache over the top of my head, ears ringing shrill, and pain in my lower backside, right side. I am going to go back and read the e alerts from Char and see what I can make of it.

Katt, so you are seeing some kind of strange clouds today? I did this morning, I could see them even though the sun wasn't even up yet, long lines, uniform and side by side.

I sat the other night and went over on paper, a series of quakes that appear to me that they are making a circle. I did this thinking that it was going to point to either Yellowstone or Mt St Helens. It doesn't. Instead it points some long sleeping volcanoes, I had no idea even existed until I mapped a circle around them using the recent quake map from usgs. I noted that a quake would rumble on the east of them, then on the west, then south, then north. Repeating this pattern a 'cirlce' of small quakes form around the area in Utah, and in that area there lies 3 volcanoes. I am probably way off with this, but I couldn't help but notice the 'circle' on the map, and what is in the middle of it.

[edit on 14-9-2008 by space cadet]

Originally posted by kattraxx

We've also been getting those weird "hot flashes" a couple times a day too. Charlotte has been getting reports of these odd "hot flashes" from many people, both male and female of all ages, for the past couple months, and she's been doing some research, trying to figure out what it's all about. She'll let us know in her email alerts when she does.

I didnt notice this post last week...... sorry for the delay... My wife and I have been getting severe hot flashes at night, and we have the A/C on all night and the house is chilly, but the hot flashes are very intense, and almost always make us both feel like we are going to be sick... I had to dunk my head in ice water to prevent myself from throwing up last night....
Both my wife and I are healthy and have never had the problem before... started up in the middle of august, and is pretty much getting us EVERY night.