An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

I'm not liking this Katt. Be safe and go with your gut feelings. Keep an eye on the sky how are the clouds? I would keep dogs close by also.

Three quakes over 3 today, wow what the he&& is going on? If they are getting up there in your area somewhere a "bigggggg" one is going to hit soon don't you think?

I think we really need to watch China especially if there is a possibility there could be anything Nuclear involved.

Mike keep us up on that China quake!

One word just popped into my head, "fissure"

[edit on 8-6-2008 by observe50]

reply to post by JustMike


Thanks, JustMike. It's kind of funny, in that intellectually you realize that 9 times out of 10, it would be safe to just sit and ride out an earthquake. But instinctively, you react whether you like it or not-- it's some kind of primal instinct, I believe. Even after three months of this swarm, you'd think you'd get used to a little shaking, but you don't. Not even the dogs do. They hate it. I've given them Five Flower drops to calm them down. But when the tremors hit, they jump up startled, then kind of dart back and forth and around not knowing where to go to escape the earth under their feet. Now, they are both at my feet.

I couldn't have picked a better time to read "Saving Cascadia". It's so ironic to be sitting reading a book about an earthquake swarm preceding a great quake when suddenly you begin experiencing an earthquake.

reply to post by observe50


Observe, I'm not liking it either. While I was sitting out back reading, I did notice an odd cloud over the swarm area this morning before our 3.8-- just a little stretched upward cloud and no other clouds in the sky and I thought to myself... this is no coincidence, that I keep seeing these odd little clouds only over NW Reno and nowhere else in the sky. I brought my Handycam out back with me, so if I see anything else odd, I'll shoot it just for you and post it.

Two other odd things that may or may not be related-- in the past month, we've had a couple weak rain showers, but the rain drops left white tracks on the windows. Many people commented on it and I think someone told me the weather guy said it was from some forest fire in another state. Thing is, there are forest fires all the time out west here and I have never seen the rain leave white spots all over my windows. For whatever it's worth. The other thing is the white dust all over everything lately. I'm used to having to dust a lot here in the high desert, and generally the dust is sort of a dull brown/yellow color and a bit grainy, like sand in other words. But the dust lately is white and fine and plentiful. Again, for what it's worth, connected or not. Just two things out of the ordinary here.

Edit: Oh, and you're really creeping me out with "fissure", by the way.

[edit on 6/8/08 by kattraxx]

Updated list/Reno swarm

I knew the first tremor was quickly followed by another of nearly equal strength.

Look at the updated list of EQs.... it's messed up indeed. The tremors are getting stronger!

I read (China) aftershocks expected to follow because epicenter close to ground level.

Look at the 0.0 ground level for Reno Verdi-Mogul.

Here about Reno:

www.usatoday.com...


4.2 Afghanistan they are lining up across country

edit to add: keep your vehicle gassed up and ready to go, keep your pets close by just in case you need to get out of town. Does anyone know where damntheptb is?

The white stuff isn't sounding good, I would be careful about letting your pets get there noses close and sniffing this stuff same with you. Wash there feet and your pinkies good. You should collect some of that stuff in a closed container. I can't imagine you know who not knowing anything, they know and are keeping there mouths shut after all they don't want a panic you know.

[edit on 8-6-2008 by observe50]

Crap they just upgraded the one after the 3.7 quake to a 3.9

Well, I've been getting ready, again, for a bigger EQ. Filling up 5 gallon water bottles w/fresh water, gathering photos, important papers and keepsakes, etc., to keep by the back door.

Reno precursors still hurting at this time, so this is not over. I believe damntheptb and I have been saying this for the past few days, and we were not wrong. Sooooooooooooooo, more than USGS told us. Thanks, Charlotte, for giving us some sense of control back.

reply to post by kattraxx

Kat, I have no idea how I'd react if we had a major tremor. We had a couple of minor ones about two months ago...rattled the glassware in the kitchen cupboards..and that was creepy more than anything. But something bigger? I'd be following your dogs, I reckon...

You know, I'm wondering what that white dust is. That is to say, I'm really wondering. It rings a bell but I can't quite place it... This sounds almost like a volcanic dust fallout but if that were so, then it would likely be very widespread.

Can you try a little test? Get a small sample and put it in a dish and add a drop of vinegar. See if it reacts at all. Also if you have any litmus papers around try wetting some of this white stuff and do a test for its ph. That at least will give us something to go on.

Mike you were thinking the same as me, Katt you have to be careful of that stuff. You and your dogs don't want to inhale that crap.

It doesn't make sense really if it was this gunk where is it coming from? I didn't know what fissure was so I looked it up and maybe I should have added an "S" to that.

edit to add: I see a 4.9 at XIZANG

[edit on 8-6-2008 by observe50]

Originally posted by observe50

Mike keep us up on that China quake!

One word just popped into my head, "fissure"

[edit on 8-6-2008 by observe50]

The quake near the huge "quake lake" dam today has caused a lot of concern there. No further evacuations have been ordered yet but that will depend of how officials assess the risk... Here is the latest Chinese-based report.

To be perfectly frank I would feel a lot better about this if the officials would err on the side of caution, and evacuate the approx. 1.3 million people who live downstream from this "quake lake" and who would be affected if it completely failed. Yes, I know it would be a massive undertaking but the fact remains that more aftershocks can only help to destabilize the dam further and perhaps a slightly larger one would be the straw that broke the camel's back, so to speak. Should the dam fail catastrophically there will be very little time or chance to move that many people to higher ground.

When I made my prediction of possible dire consequences on Friday I was not just playing prophet of doom...Considering the virtual seismic lottery that is part of the situation here it amazes me that officials feel it is appropriate to wait and see if the dam is safe or not. Local government is said to still be on "high alert" because of this dam, and that being the case, in my humble opinion the people at risk should be moved.

Another report tells us that today's aftershock was only 12 km (7 miles) NW of the lake, and in geological terms that is damned near a direct hit and that concerns me a lot.

"Fissure"...It is strange that you mention that word. I was telling my wife about the Colorado "800-degree ground" case over dinner tonight and she immediately said:

"It sounds like a new volcano."

Then I told her that there are volcanic regions in Colorado, including one not far from the troublesome "hot park" with its (alleged) "burning coal dust". My wife's response (after dismissing the "sun heating effect" as utter nonsense):

"The people there are in terrible danger."

My wife is a very astute woman, not long retired from 40-odd years in the health profession and very well read... Her own intuitiveness leaves mine in the shade much of the time...

So...A fissure? Maybe. Just maybe....

Oh, on the matter of the "sun heating the coal dust and making it ignite" excuse/story put forth by officialdom, here's another item of interest for whoever is interested.

The power density of solar radiation (on the ground here) is about 1.4 Kw/square metre. (This is called the "solar constant".) It varies very little throughout the year, actually. You can find a little info about this here.
In other words, an area of ground of one square metre receives around 1400 watts of energy per hour. However, just to auto-ignite wood (which takes less energy than coal) requires a minimum of 4300 watts per hour per square metre. (Source. (I gave this in an earlier post but it's easier to have it here again.) In other words, lay a one-metre-square sheet of wood on the ground and it'll get warm but it won't burn. (Lucky for us!) In fact, you'd need the power of three of our suns shining on it at the same time to provide something close to the energy needed.

Which again leads me to think that park in Colorado is not getting to 800 degrees just from sunshine making some "coal dust" burn.

You know what really scares me? That officials can spout such utter nonsense and get away with it, because most people just don't really have any interest -- and the officials know it.

Mike

Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by kattraxx

 

Can you try a little test? Get a small sample and put it in a dish and add a drop of vinegar. See if it reacts at all. Also if you have any litmus papers around try wetting some of this white stuff and do a test for its ph. That at least will give us something to go on.

Okay, I only have red wine vinegar. What am I looking for? No litmus paper. I have acid water though-- I use an ionizer/alkanizer water filtration system. Will that do the trick?

[edit on 6/8/08 by kattraxx]

I found this blurb regarding white dust, in a story about the Illinois EQ. I think it's from the structure shaking... and the earth as well, I suppose...

www.heraldtimesonline.com...

Monroe Hospital suffered no structural damage from this morning’s quake. Matthew French, vice president for business development at the hospital, said the women working the front desk were laughing about the incident which shook the ceiling in the lobby.

“You could see a little bit on the floor,” French said, describing white dust on the lobby floor.

French said the facilities manager did a quick check after it happened but plans to do a full accounting, too. “I think it just rattled it a little bit,” French said.

As I recall, before we had the 4.9, we had a couple 3.5's the day before. I expect the next 24 hours will be key. I say, bring it on, if it gets it over with. I just hate when they hit during the night, and they usually seem to do just that.



[edit on 6/8/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx


Yes, that'll do fine. The idea is to try and determine if this dust is alkaline (in which case it should react with a weak acid) or if it's acid (in which case etc etc...). If it's totally neutral then I wouldn't expect much to happen.

You will only need small amounts for testing. Just a small scraping of the stuff with a couple of drops of your acid or alkaline will suffice. As in any case where you are testing something unknown, don't get so close that you inhale any vapor. No panic: I'd say the same thing if you were putting drops of vinegar on bicarb of soda to watch it fizz...

If anything interesting happens then it'd be worth collecting some more samples. Even the local pharmacist should be able to figure out a bit about whatever it is.

Anyway it's almost half-past midnight here...Hope you have a peaceful rest of the day. Sounds like you need to rest up whenever you can.

Hugs from us over here,

Mike (and wife D. )

Edit: Sorry forgot to add that a little bicarb of soda (cooking soda) mixed in distilled water is perfect as a mild alkaline for testing.


[edit on 8-6-2008 by JustMike]

Katt,

I would make sure to wash your puppies feet after they come in just to be safe, we don't want anything being absorbed into there skin or God help it if they licked there paws. Might not hurt to give them a brushing either.

If nothing else this might keep you mind busy for a minute, who am I kidding!

I'm putting this out and it isn't pretty but maybe the Chinese aren't moving people out and will use this for depopulation if that dam breaks, please forgive me for saying this but I am looking at everything I can.

Originally posted by JustMike

Originally posted by observe50

Mike keep us up on that China quake!

One word just popped into my head, "fissure"

[edit on 8-6-2008 by observe50]

The quake near the huge "quake lake" dam today has caused a lot of concern there. No further evacuations have been ordered yet but that will depend of how officials assess the risk... Here is the latest Chinese-based report.

To be perfectly frank I would feel a lot better about this if the officials would err on the side of caution, and evacuate the approx. 1.3 million people who live downstream from this "quake lake" and who would be affected if it completely failed. Yes, I know it would be a massive undertaking but the fact remains that more aftershocks can only help to destabilize the dam further and perhaps a slightly larger one would be the straw that broke the camel's back, so to speak. Should the dam fail catastrophically there will be very little time or chance to move that many people to higher ground.


Mike

Yeah remember how Fung Shui has predicted floods for that whole region for the next three months with the last month being the worst. Or maybe it was to start in July, I forget now.

Unfortunately China will do nothing for its own people until something happens because its only then will they get criticized by the world and act like they are great.

With only four hundred helos in their military they had better act now and not later. If they have dam breaks and it gets as bad as the prophecy predicts they are going to need a whole lot of help from the U.S. Navy and Marines and India to get the people out to safety.

Two of them Mike. What one is near the lake and dam?

Magnitude 5.0 - EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
2008 June 08 10:51:19 UTC

Magnitude 5.1 - SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
2008 June 08 17:56:20 UTC

reply to post by Sky watcher


If you've got lat/long, here's a cool site that may help you.

itouchmap.com...

Observe50, no clouds in the sky this afternoon.

[edit on 6/8/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by Sky watcher


Hi Sky watcher,

sorry if I didn't make it clear... In this post I was referring to the largest quake lake in the Sichuan region. The news report I linked to in that post mentions the quake as well, so it's the Sichuan quake at 10:51 UTC (6:51 pm local time there) that is the more worrying one in terms of this quake lake's dam. The 5.1 quake in Southern Qinghai is in a different region. I talked about this quake in this post yesterday.

reply to post by kattraxx


Hey Katt, I hope you are doing good, I saw tonight that swarms are hitting your area again, anything odd with the animals or insects to tell us about this time? These were barely underground again. Best wishes for all of you in the area.

reply to post by kattraxx


It's very normal for people to be assigned as monitors on sites like this when gov. sensitive info is being discussed, so don't be surprised if you feel like someone is responding to your posts.
To save an image of any page that you are afraid will be deleted or changed on your computer screen you just have to hit 3 keys together:
At the bottom left of the keyboard first depress "Ctrl".
Keep holding this down and press "Alt".
Now, holding down both "Ctrl and Alt" look at the top right of the keyboard and press "Prt Sc/Sys Rq".
A "Photo" of what ever is on your computer screen is now saved on your clip board. You can now simply paste the info into a Word Document.
To paste the image into a Word document simply press "Ctrl" and the letter "V". It is best to have Word opened before you start.

Another way to save pages that you are worried will vanish or change is to simply copy the page by highlighting it and pasting it into a word document.
This way if the web page vanishes you have a copy of it in your documents.
Always copy the http address and add it to your document for reference too. As you collect files be sure and copy them to a separate disk in case your computer goes south!


Hope this helps.