An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

I am checking in cause I have a massive headache and had some vertigo this morning.

Oh wow, this is preliminary, I assume?

CNN & The Weather Channel both reporting it as an 8.2???
USGS still has it as an 8.0!
Sure hope the tsunami doesn't get very far inland!

They are asking everyone along the coast to evacuate.
Even worse, it's after dark! Poor people!
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


I was in bed by the time that news hit. Though I did get news of some aftershocks. I got hit with another wave or two of vertigo and my head was pounding so I went to bed. I feel better today though. How are the cats and hubby?

USGS revised their magnitude upwards to an 8.2.

This quake was the first mag 7-plus (Mw) event in the world in over four months. And unfortunately, it was one of the rare ones of magnitude 8 or bigger.

MariaLida specifically stated in her post on Jan 8 this year

Especially my major concern for area of Iquique, Chile , this area is very exposed to the threat of tsunami ..

Think in close future this area and city Iquique have big possibility to be devastated from strong EQ - tsunami, hope not ..

I need to emphasize that when Maria made that post the quake activity in the region was not extraordinary and for virtually all quake watchers (me included) there was nothing to indicate such a huge event was on the cards in the near future. But Maria's post could not have been plainer: she focused on Iquique as her area of concern and she was absolutely right.

Some might argue, "Yeah, but it didn't happen in a few days, it was almost 3 months later." Well, in terms of mag 8 or bigger events we only average about 1 or 2 per year world-wide. (There have only been 17 world-wide since 1/1/2004.) To have a mag 8.2 in a very clearly defined area just a few months after she posted? The odds of being right purely by chance are very low.

To show how unlikely it would be to "guess" such a well--defined area, even naming the same location-reference town as USGS did in their data, first let's look at Maria's follow-up post HERE on March 24 where she said:

We had a strong EQ's in this area Iquique - Chile last days, also still strong shaking there ..

61 km NW of Iquique, Chile / pop: 227,499 / local time: 17:16:29.0 2014-03-16

Think probably stronger EQ will come in this area also possibility for very strong one, I hope not ..

One week later, we get the very strong one:

M 8.2 - 95km NW of Iquique, Chile
PAGER - ORANGEShakeMap - VIIIDYFI? - IXTsunami Warning Center

Time
2014-04-02 01:46:46 UTC+02:00
Location
19.642°S 70.817°W
Depth
20.1km

[Refer USGS Map Page. And, as this event will drop off that map eventually as it's constantly updated, readers can also refer to the detailed USGS summary page for this event HERE, which should be available for much longer.]

Iquique. Like Maria said. And yes, there was in fact a small tsunami, but thankfully it was not one of the deadly ones.

So okay, some might also want to argue along the lines: "Iquique is one of the major towns in the region so naturally it will be the location reference town used by USGS, and they've probably used it plenty of times before for powerful quakes in the region."

The argument sounds reasonable, but it's just not the case.

As I mentioned in my reply last week to Maria's post quoted above, I did a search of the USGS/NEIC data base for all quakes of magnitude 6.7 and above within a 200-mile radius of the March 16, mag 6.7 quake, from 1900 to the present.

The database lists 30 events in that range and region. Only one of them uses "Iquique" as the location reference, and that is the mag 6.7 quake on March 16 this year. If you wanted to pick a town name for a location reference, then "Tarapaca" is the best bet because USGS used it 15 times for quakes out of that list of 30 events. 50/50 odds of being right, if you wanted to guess.

Maria's use of "Iquique" had very low odds of being right -- if she were just guessing. She wasn't.

And now, to get back to the arguments about magnitude 8 quakes, or even magnitude 7.5 or bigger quakes, as Maria gave us 7.5 as her lower estimate. There have been just five quakes of mag 7.5 or bigger within that region (200 mile radius) since 1/1/1900. Five, in 114 years. So, if anyone wants to argue that the March 16 mag 6.7 quake was pretty likely to be followed by a mag 7.5 or bigger because the region's known to get lots of big quakes, then they need to bear in mind that mag 7.5-plus quakes only happen there (on average) once every 22 years or so.

And not one of those mag 7.5-plus events was magnitude 8 or bigger.

This mag 8.2 quake near Iquique is the biggest within that region since a mag 8.6 [Ms] quake on August 13, 1868, about 90 miles north. That's over 145 years ago. The largest in the past decade was an 8.0 about 930 km (570 miles) NNW, off Peru on Aug 16, 2007.

The April 1 Iquique quake is the biggest in the world this year. It's also the first quake of magnitude 8 or bigger since an 8.3 in the Sea of Okhotsk on May 24, 2013.

MariaLida specified Iquique in her post on Jan 8 and she confirmed that prediction on March 24. And in spite of all the statistics that show she had less than a 5% chance of even predicting the year right for a mag 7.5 (or bigger) quake within a couple of hundred miles' radius of March 16's 6.7, she got it right on target.

Maria, hats off to you.

reply to post by rbkruspe


I had been out running around all day feeling ok got home at 430 central time by 530 i was dizzy with the headaches and ears ringing and had to go lay down woke up at 930 and saw the quake listed. No wonder I had felt so weird our helicorders here were still vibrating pretty good. Today same thing got up took a grandbaby to a dr appt 30 miles away ran around and now its starting again...had to stop shopping got too dizzy and was walking like i was drunk. Now i'm just trying to decide whether to lay down again or stay up and watch whats happening lol.

My spidey senses have been tingling for a week now.

I am finding myself watching the USGS EQ map constantly...
Even after this 8.+
(that is what is telling me something big is in the works as where my attention goes, is what I tend to experience)
I am worried about Cali and the Pacific NW....

All of these continuous EQs around LA..

Wish we had been home yesterday to pay attention to symptoms!
Hubby has been feeling something for about a week,
but I don't think we expected one that big!
Didn't get to see if the cat felt anything either.

I do have all kinds of energy today, which is great!
Maybe I did a little bit yesterday too,
because we walked up a 'mountain' to our favorite leek picking spot.
It's pretty steep, but I didn't tire out.
(We didn't even find a sprout!)

But where is all this extra energy coming from yet today???
Hmmm...
WOQ

reply to post by MariaLida



2014-04-03 05:51:45.01hr 47min ago 20.76 S 70.37 W 30 5.5 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
2014-04-03 05:26:16.02hr 13min ago 20.84 S 70.47 W 30 6.3 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
2014-04-03 03:11:15.04hr 28min ago 20.60 S 70.69 W 8 5.8 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
2014-04-03 02:56:06.04hr 43min ago 20.72 S 70.58 W 17 5.6 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
2014-04-03 02:43:17.04hr 56min ago 20.52 S 70.47 W 21 7.6 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
2014-04-03 01:58:31.05hr 40min ago 20.29 S 70.48 W 20 6.5 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

www.emsc-csem.org...

reply to post by MariaLida


Powerful earthquake strikes off Chile, triggers tsunami
By Dana Ford and Saeed Ahmed, CNN
updated 9:35 AM EDT, Wed April 2, 2014

Hope will stay on this EQ around M 8.0 and all pressure is released ..

Also think this very big pressure released in this area of S America will effect also N America - West Coast and probably in time ahead there will be very strong EQ also ..

We will see how the situation will develop in next days or months, but I hope not and my calculation will be wrong this time ..

2014-04-03 02:43:18.0 20.43 S 70.30 W 40 7.6 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

2014-04-01 23:46:47.0 19.68 S 70.85 W 20 8.1 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

www.emsc-csem.org...

(CNN) -- A mighty 8.2-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of northern Chile late Tuesday, triggering small landslides, cutting power and generating a tsunami.

Four men and one woman died -- two who suffered heart attacks and three who were crushed, said Interior Minister Rodrigo Penailillo.

About 300 prisoners escaped from the northern port city of Iquique in the immediate aftermath, he said.

Tsunami waves of more than 6 feet generated by the earthquake washed ashore on the coast of Pisagua, according to Victor Sardino, with the center.

Iquique, with a population of more than 200,000, saw 7-foot waves.

The quake struck about 8:46 p.m. local time, some 60 miles northwest of Iquique. It had a depth of 12.5 miles, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

Chile's National Emergency Office asked coastal residents to evacuate.

www.cnn.com...

reply to post by JustMike


I am likely out of line for my opinion, but I feel strongly, so I am going to say it.

Not all of us have instruments at our homes as she does. I can't argue that she called it, I just feel a bit defensive of the rest of us who have only our bodily senses for this. Maybe that isn't the point of the thread though.

Anyway, congrats to Maria. I'm just expressing how I see this.

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


I felt pretty good yesterday, myself. Today isn't bad either but I've had a bit of a headache trying to happen. I slept a bit better last night than the prior nights. Spring being around the corner doesn't hurt either.

reply to post by Darkblade71


Cali has me worried too.

reply to post by ur44lois


I had company at the time of posting about the headache and vertigo. I wasn't feeling too awesome earlier that day either. I was grumpy that morning and had bouts of it all throughout the day. I thought it was just female hormones or something. After my company left, I retreated to bed and it wasn't but 20 minutes or so after that the quake hit.

Guys, I don't know how you all feel, but my anxiety is off the chart today...I'm at the "run for the hills" stage, or just about, and it's making me feel sick. It started last night, for no real reason, and suddenly I was anxious, paranoid, completely over emotional, and it's proving hard to shake. DestinyOne posted in the quake thread that she's sure this series of big quakes isn't done yet and I have to agree. For the first time, what I'm feeling contains fear, which is freaking me out.

Hope you're all ok.

Cxx

Hi!
Young cat is trilling & wanting attention again.
She went under the desk, but didn't stay there this time.

The other night a few hours before the 6.5 & 7.7 in Chile,
she was really wanting attention & then went to sleep under the desk.
I should have paid more attention to what she was trying to say!
Old cat used to be the one that usually went under the desk.

Hubby has had his knickers in a knot,
& been wearing his 'cranky pants' for over a week now!
Finally today it seems to be wearing off a little!
Whew, that was a lot of quake perking,
& a long stretch of walking on egg shells!

I didn't even venture to ask him about any other symptoms!
I'll ask when it's all over! Ha, ha! It is over, isn't it???
I don't know...I'm still awfully hungry, for having just eaten!!!
WOQ

reply to post by caitlinfae


Things haven't sat right with me either yesterday/today, I was totally grumpy first thing waking up yesterday. I felt a lot of anxiety around me yesterday, like from the people and world around me. Highly anxious, tense energy, that could have been the warm weather plus Friday and people being more active.

The sun was bothersome energy yesterday afternoon too. I am noticing it's more intense and it just drove me up a wall and I felt rather sick and tense. It wasn't too good of an evening physically for me but it improved.

On a final note, I felt two tremors earlier at about 2:44am eastern time. It was weird because everything was very quiet and still, no traffic or anything that I could see being related to human activity, and it's rare that I feel things like this at this apartment. So I wrote down when it happened. I haven't looked much at quake stuff cause I've been busy most of the night but thought I'd put it here anyway.

This is a wee bit weird. That's exactly the pattern I've noticed. I did wonder if it was sun activity, but quite honestly haven't been in the mood to check. It's very quiet at work, but schools are on holiday, so I'm occupying my time with admin and rehanging paintings and web stuff.......

My other half was so worried about me yesterday that he came home early from work, which made a huge difference to my mood, but I noticed that as soon as he was out the door this morning, the panic started to rise again. He's a very grounded individual, more than anyone I've ever met, so he makes a massive difference to how I feel when he's around. I also noticed on FB this morning that a friend of mine who also runs a little business close by had a major meltdown yesterday morning, about the time my panic was at it's absolute worst...she's saying she hasn't slept in 4 days, has eczema, and basically took herself off to bed in the middle of the day...not like her at all. So yeah...there is something in the works, and I seem to be lurching from endless physical energy, like Wednesday when I didn't stop for 14 hours straight doing stuff in the house, and today....and insane anxiety and panic and fear and wanting to run for the hills.

As for location...nope, nothing as usual, although my Alaska headache is still bubbling away on and off. I just don't know what to think of us all having such similar patterns. Maybe we're just more sensitive than most to the physical and emotional changes the earth is going through. Maybe it's more about current events throwing out energy than us sensing something coming up...I hope so anyway. I don't think the ring of fire events are about to calm down any time soon though. This is also weird, but when I ask for information about what might be coming up, I get a very clear picture of a large volcano, similar in shape to Vesuvius, but much bigger, in the middle of a very large landmass that looks like southern Russia, or far eastern Europe, and it's a volcano out on it's own, with no surrounding mountains. It's not Vesuvius (I've been there and it scares the hell out of me), and it more like Mount Rainier size, but a more definite cone shape. It's not Rainier I'm seeing either...I don't know what this one is called. There is a supervolcano in Germany that I read about recently, but I get the impression it's further east than that.

German Supervolcano

Dunno...will keep digging when I have time.

rbkruspe
reply to post by caitlinfae

 

Things haven't sat right with me either yesterday/today, I was totally grumpy first thing waking up yesterday. I felt a lot of anxiety around me yesterday, like from the people and world around me. Highly anxious, tense energy, that could have been the warm weather plus Friday and people being more active.

The sun was bothersome energy yesterday afternoon too. I am noticing it's more intense and it just drove me up a wall and I felt rather sick and tense. It wasn't too good of an evening physically for me but it improved.

On a final note, I felt two tremors earlier at about 2:44am eastern time. It was weird because everything was very quiet and still, no traffic or anything that I could see being related to human activity, and it's rare that I feel things like this at this apartment. So I wrote down when it happened. I haven't looked much at quake stuff cause I've been busy most of the night but thought I'd put it here anyway.

reply to post by rbkruspe

I follow what you're saying and appreciate the points you've made. Just to give a little perspective on this, Kattrax started this thread almost six years ago, out of frustration with the seismology experts' apparent inability to identify or explain exactly why her own region in Nevada was having such unusual and quite alarming quake activity, and also because they couldn't say where it might all lead.

So, she wanted members here to look at alternative ways to study and predict quakes, some of which are human- or animal-based, or consider other signs from nature like cloud formations and ground water levels, for example. But in her OP she also mentioned some that require technical equipment to do any detailed analysis, such as studying radon gas levels, thermal anomalies, VLF background noise and so on.

At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter how we do things if it helps to advance the whole concept of quake prediction. We all contribute what we can. I think ultimately, both the human element (both the more esoteric and the fundamental things many of us feel) and the technical (machine-based data) will have a part to play. Your posts, and the posts of all members who write about what Charlotte King would call the "geosensology" aspects, are just as valid and, I feel, just as necessary in improving our understanding and reaching our collective goal.

We know that especially with very powerful quakes, huge energies are involved and various forms of energy are released. We all sense many forms of energy, and with regards to quakes -- even before they physically manifest -- some of us seem to sense forms of energy that are not yet well understood, or perhaps not even generally acknowledged in the scientific community. Hopefully, if enough evidence is gathered to show that we are sensing forms of energy that are not yet detectable by machines, then maybe a way will be found to build machines to detect them as well.

Long story short, we need all the help we can get, and your posts are very welcome!

Hmm, just saw something that we might want to keep in mind for later:
Two Oarfish beach themselves in the Sea of Cortez

As the tourists prepared to go kayaking off Isla San Francisco, located north of La Paz, two rare oarfish measuring about 15 feet were spotted swimming along the shoreline, seemingly trying to beach themselves.

According to the description, that would be around decimal coordinates 24.830, -110.575.

There has been some rumor that oarfish are the harbingers of earthquakes... I'm not too sure about that, but it's still rare to see one - much less two - oarfish!