An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by newsoul


Aw that's worrying...I hope she's calmer today. Could there have been a fox or something nearby that was scaring her? I have to say that my dog has been very clingy the last few days, but I put that down to my new work routine. He's left on his on for maybe 5 hours a day, which isn't excessive, and he gets LOTS of exercise, games, cuddles....however yesterday, he stood in front of the door and wasn't going to let me leave, despite everything being taken care of. This is not a neglected dog by any stretch of the imagination, and I'm hoping he gets used to his new routine in time as it's just been a few weeks, but yeah...it was strange. He's never done that before. More worrying is your location however...at least in Scotland, I don't really have earthquakes to worry about too often (although they do happen).

reply to post by newsoul


Hi!

Our grandkids had a couple of mini lop ears over the years.
They sure are smart & sweet!
I was surprised when they told me they use a litter box!
Has she thumped anymore since you posted?

Which time zone are you in? I just looked at a map.
I was also surprised to see that KY & TN have 2 time zones!
I wonder if she was sensing the waves from the 6.3 in Peru at 7:51 PM ET?
But that's really too long for her to keep feeling them 'til this morning!
And if she didn't do it for the 6.1 in Peru earlier, then that probably isn't it.

So I looked at the eastern lists & maps for local small ones.
Nothing yet...but sometimes they aren't listed right away,
especially on weekends! I'll have to look again on Mon or Tues!

Our cat wants petted when a bigger one is coming.
She doesn't want me to stop!
Sometimes when I'm in the middle of something,
I just don't have 15 minutes to keep petting her!
Then she will keep following me, trilling & coaxing!
I always wonder if it hurts her or her ears in some way!

Let us know if she does it again.
But if she didn't do it for any small, closer ones in the last 5 years,
then that probably isn't it either!!!
It will be interesting to see if you can figure it out!!!

Hubby isn't feeling too great since 10 AM today.
I asked him if it feels like a quake is coming?
He said his chest feels tight, plus some quake symptoms too.

We were doing some work on the house the other day,
& it got cold fast & we got pretty chilled.
He gets pneumonia really easily, so I hope it's not that!
Not that I wish for a quake either!
Take care!
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


We are in the Eastern time zone. She has been sleeping since about 1:00 this afternoon.

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Also I hope your husband is feeling better!!! Let us know.

Wow holy crap. I have been feeling really really uneasy and about to jump out of my skin with this discomfort and uneasiness anxiety etc. Firstly this morning around 5 AM I started looking at the solar data as I had an inkling that something was afoot because I hadn't slept in two days and was not tired (that never happens and when it happens I get really suspicious) so when I got up this morning after finally sleeping I considered checking earthquakes too and have had USGS pulled up to monitor, meanwhile feeling increasingly keyed up, anxious, uneasy, nauseated and then I see the magnitude 7.0 about a half hour after it happened.. I feel slight relief but not much. I just am like....on edge still but slightly like I can finally breathe like "it is over" but no, I just feel bad and hope no one was hurt cause that area looked on a map to be populated.

It's also rainy here and I considered the weather to maybe be a part of my feeling so icky and whenever I sleep after not having slept for a while, I am usually a bit wiry the next day and more anxious. Not sure why either. I am seriously going to start keeping a log again on this. We've had too much activity going on for me to just ignore. It has just been a while since I have felt a huge need to be monitoring stuff so intensely.

reply to post by newsoul


So interesting about your bunny. Hope it is better tonight.

I just feel like I'm going to be ill. My stomach pain is acting up big time. Makes my chest hurt and I feel short of breath which sucks. Makes me wonder since WOQ said her hubby has chest discomfort...mine is related to this ulcer/gerd or whatever is with my stomach, does anyone have problems with indigestion like this at times? I just am curious since I have been feeling better for days and then today it acts up in a pretty nasty way.

I have to say I'm probably going to lay down a while but I will keep an eye out on the forum and stuff. Hope everyone is well.

newsoul
reply to post by wasobservingquietly

 

We are in the Eastern time zone. She has been sleeping since about 1:00 this afternoon.

Any more thumping since you posted?
I was wondering because of the 6.7 in Chile at 21:16, 5:16 PM ET.
A bunch of aftershocks too!
The poor rabbit is probably exhausted from all the thumping last night!
It sure is perking down there now!
WOQ

It had been a 7.0, but as downgraded.

reply to post by rbkruspe


Hi!

Hubby was sick to his stomach from about 10 this morning.
Almost couldn't eat his lunch at work.
It slowly went away around the time of the 6.7.

He had a new 'symptom' today.
Pain under his jaw, by his ear, on the left side.
I thought maybe he was getting an inner ear infection, but that is gone now too!
Sure is weird how different things pop up!

Last night I had the 'sleeping pill tired' feeling again.
Couldn't stay awake for anything, slept from 7-10 PM!
Tonight I have the eq munchies, just don't feel full, even though I ate!
But if I eat more, then I feel sick. Maybe more are coming?
I don't think the aftershocks are big enough for me to notice.

That's what I get for saying out loud, that it had been too quiet!!!
Hope you feel better!
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Freaky. I have the same jaw pain, has been there for a couple of days, is still there this morning, on the left side of my jaw, under my ear, little bit of a sore throat, but not a cold or ear infection. I also have had rib pain yesterday and today, like sharp tiny pains inbetween bones in several locations, lasting a few seconds, little sharp shock pains. NOT cardiac pain, just ribs. The dog seems more settled thankfully. Sadly I discovered last night that my neighbour had to have her dog put to sleep as he had pancreatitis...only 16 months old...so maybe Mack was picking up something about that a couple of nights ago. He was looking for him over the fence this morning...heartbreaking.

Hopefully this string of quakes in Peru will fizzle out, and True American is doing an amazing job keeping track of it, but it very worrying when he actually comes out and says he's issuing a warning, and that region was where we had a 9.6 after all. I hate to think what that would do today.

Hope Thumper is feeling better...stay safe everyone.

reply to post by caitlinfae


Your rib pain sounds like what I was dealing with. Almost like tiny stabby pains off and on and constant. Right or left side ? Mine are on my left. Though I think it has to do with that ulcer thing I was dealing with, though the pains and stuff came out of nowhere and stayed for a long time. I went to bed early and this morning I was better. I am in a fairly grumpy mood at times though. Just little patience and blah feeling. Irritable at my neighbours loud music too!

rbkruspe
I just feel like I'm going to be ill. My stomach pain is acting up big time. Makes my chest hurt and I feel short of breath which sucks. Makes me wonder since WOQ said her hubby has chest discomfort...mine is related to this ulcer/gerd or whatever is with my stomach, does anyone have problems with indigestion like this at times? I just am curious since I have been feeling better for days and then today it acts up in a pretty nasty way.

I have to say I'm probably going to lay down a while but I will keep an eye out on the forum and stuff. Hope everyone is well.

I have suspected GERD and yep, If I eat a meal that's too fatty I can feel quite short of breath and have a sort of post nasal drip feeling, it's quite awful, it sets of my anxiety and gets quite uncomfortable, so I feel you!

What's interesting about the 4.2 it is the Washington-Oregon Border Region and it's on land not in the water.

reply to post by rbkruspe


They're little stabby pains like you say, and are fairly well spread out, sometimes round the sides under my arms, sometimes between my shoulder blades, often between upper ribs just under my collar bones or around my breastbone. They come and go, and some days are much worse than others...nothing seems to change them or make them better, and very often they will just happen totally out of the blue. There is a condition called costocondritis, which is inflammation of the intercostal muscles, which sounds very like what I feel, right up to the tenderness in the breastbone joints when touched. And then again, it could the old fibro thing, and it's cardiac like symptoms flaring up...who knows.

If that's what it is, it's not life threatening, just very uncomfortable, so I hope your pain has subsided. On a positive note, I had my cardiology appointment this morning, and have been told I'm totally normal ( at least in terms of cardiac function..;D ) so that's a huge relief. I have a very strong family history of heart disease, so it was worrying. At least now I know that I have no signs of any cardiac issues, everything is fine, all the tests have been done, so what ever I'm feeling now and again, it's not my ticker.

Maybe I was a little more stressed about this then I wanted to admit, but I had a shockingly bad night's sleep last night...awake for hours and very angry and anxious, lots of pain in my arms and back, but it might just have been me a little more wound up than usual.

reply to post by caitlinfae


Glad your tickers good! Yeah my pain is better. Turns out all the fortification in breakfast cereal/granola and such makes me have problems.

I am not sure how everyone else is today, but I thought I'd give an update. I didn't sleep at all last night then finally slept at about 8 or 9 am. For the past few hours I have noticed and increase in irritability. Trying to relax and work on making some music and I am just getting frustrated and p---ed off. That rarely happens. Music helps me feel better and relax usually.

The major thing that tipped me off to post here today was a tiny bit of nausea trying to creep up among all that. I am not sure if anything is going to happen but I'm kinda looking out for chile and have been thinking about it all day.

reply to post by MariaLida

MariaLida
Hello0 to00 all ..

I caught some strong signal's coming to my equipment ..

Let's try to predict this one, i will say in next 15 hrs or next 2 days around M 7.5 ..

I have some areas N-C-S America and of course area "Ring of Fire", but let be more precise area of N Chile - S Peru ..

Long time there was no big one there and think time is come for this area ..

Especially my major concern for area of Iquique, Chile , this area is very exposed to the threat of tsunami ..

Think in close future this area and city Iquique have big possibility to be devastated from strong EQ - tsunami, hope not ..

I'm not monitoring anymore pre-EQ's signals but desire to make very precise prediction is stronger from my so I post this EQ prediction attempt anyway ) ..

All best to yo0u in New Year ..

We had a strong EQ's in this area Iquique - Chile last days, also still strong shaking there ..

61 km NW of Iquique, Chile / pop: 227,499 / local time: 17:16:29.0 2014-03-16

Think probably stronger EQ will come in this area also possibility for very strong one, I hope not ..

2014-03-23 18:20:04.0 19.90 S 70.90 W 30 6.3 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
2014-03-22 12:59:58.0 19.81 S 70.92 W 12 6.2 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
2014-03-17 05:11:33.0 19.99 S 70.88 W 5 6.2 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
2014-03-16 21:16:29.0 19.86 S 70.58 W 10 6.7 OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

www.emsc-csem.org...

Here is EQ's 5.5 + for this area from 2004, EMSC ..

reply to post by MariaLida

This is very impressive. I'm not too concerned about the time difference between when you initially expected these events and when they occurred, and for two main reasons: first of all, you were very specific in identifying your region of concern and narrowing things down in that respect is always a huge challenge. Secondly, this recent series of quakes there is very unusual and even according to regional experts, it does not fit the norm for aftershocks following a significant quake.

From an article reported in Reuter's HERE :

Living in one of the world's most earthquake-prone zones, Chileans are accustomed to the regular tremors that ripple through their country, which has strict quake-proof regulations for construction.

But the far northern region of Tarapaca has undergone an unusually high number of tremors in a small area around the port towns of Iquique and Pisagua since a relatively strong magnitude 6.7 tremor hit on March 16.

"This is already unusual," said Mario Pardo, a director at the University of Chile's seismic center, on Tuesday. "There are too many aftershocks to be only associated with the 6.7 quake."

"This is an anomaly that has been extensive in terms of time and persistent in terms of magnitude."

(Bolding mine.)
[I wish to thank Olivine, who in a post in another thread HERE linked to that article and first brought it to my attention.]

And yes, as that Director of the U. of Chile's Seismological Centre says,this is a very unusual series of events. Here's some confirmation as to why:

I've done a search of the USGS/NEIC database for all quakes of magnitude 6.7 or bigger within a 320 km (200 mile) radius of March 16th's 6.7 quake, covering a time range from 01/01/1900 until today (March 27 2014). Yes, that's a little over 114 years.

In all that time there have been just 30 such quakes, so they are by no means common and average about 3.8 years between events, though naturally, the intervals vary quite a lot.

But what is more of interest and concern is this: I have also begun searching data on each larger quake (6.7 or bigger), and have yet to find any that had so many large aftershocks subsequent to the main event within the ensuing 14 days or so, with the added fact that even where they did have aftershocks in the time range, they fitted quite well with the "normal" aftershock definitions.

These "aftershocks" in the recent series are simply too big, and also, there are too many of them that are too big to be mere "aftershocks" in the classic meaning of the term. For example, even after the magnitude 7.7 event on Nov 14, 2007, there were only two aftershocks above mag 6 within the next fourteen days. Both occurred just one day after the main shock, the larger of the two being a mag 6.8 -- which fits well with an aftershock being up to around 1 mag less than the main shock.

Something very odd is happening there and having gone back several decades already, I can't find anything that even comes close to the pattern of quakes we have seen after this recent 6.7 event. As the learned Director says, it's very unusual.

Can we assume the regional experts are watching these events very closely? I think we can, especially as they have doubtless already accessed studies and data to try and find previous cases where such a series of events have occurred -- and what they might imply. If anything can be deduced, that is.

So, Maria -- thank you for sharing that prediction with us, and for your ongoing diligence. I think your concerns were valid, because even if nothing major comes from this latest series of odd quakes, they are still a puzzle in themselves -- even to the experts.

One of the things that worries me is the big quake that comes out of left field, so to speak. I'm sure quite a few of you have kept an eye on the Sth American events, as they were pretty hard to overlook on the main quake maps in the past couple of weeks. And we know that general region can produce very large events.

But meanwhile, we still haven't had an across-the-board-confirmed magnitude 7 anywhere in the world for around 4 months now. There have been even longer intervals, with six months in one case I can recall, but all the same I spend a lot of time trying to figure the possible places for the next one.

The mag 6.8 event off Nth California on March 10 was highly significant for that region, but (hopefully!) it was no more concerning than the others in that range that have occurred around there at long intervals over the decades. But I still feel that the PNW is one of those "out of left field" regions, because we know what massive potential it has. I don't mean it would be a total surprise for us, but sadly, it would be for many who live there.

The troubling thing is the various other places that have also been relatively quiet for a good long while, so that in more recent years their major seismic risk has been pretty much forgotten even by most locals. The area around the Straits of Messina comes to mind, so does the zone off the coast of Portugal.

Most of you would know about the Great Lisbon Quake and Tsunami, but the 1908 Messina Quake and Tsunami is perhaps less well known, even by Italians. And in terms of casualties, with between 100,000 and 200,000 people lost, it was the worst one-day natural disaster in European history, even worse than Lisbon!

And then there are the regions that have been relatively quiet for so long that there is little or nothing even known about them, and certainly not among the general public or local officials. People just don't think of them as a serious risk. Look what happened in Haiti in 2010, when a mag 7.0 quake demolished their capital and killed at least 100,000 people (by the lowest estimates). It had been so long since the last really bad quake in the local region that this one was a total shock to everyone.

That's the sort of thing that worries me. People being totally unprepared because they have no idea any such thing can happen. I always keep an eye out for pieces of information that might hint at major activity long ago, but putting those pieces together? It's not easy.

So, if anyone has areas of concern that are not so obvious, they're always worth mentioning. The more we know, the less chance of being caught completely off guard. And if we find something that is not generally know then by posting about it here, at least there's a chance of some people in the region getting to know about it.

Hi guys...just logging in...hope you're all ok. There is a lot going on, and I've been trying to not get ahead of myself with the symptoms I'm feeling, but I want to date stamp them. Firstly, I have an Alaska headache that has started in the last half an hour. In the past this has indicated a 7+ in the Aleutian Islands, and I don't seem to feel much under a 7. I also had a couple of really startling ear rings yesterday, which is unusual for me, and some weird dreams too, of trying to cross roads to safety and finding the tarmac vertical, so I had to climb up and over it. There has also been some big solar activity in the last day or so, and god almighty did I feel it...very anxious yesterday, sore, sleepy, no energy. My dog was the same, and slept for 12 hours straight last night, which is not his normal routine.

So considering all the seismic stuff going on recently, please stay safe everyone.