An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Good morning ladies and gentleman.

Cranky wasn't even the word for yesterday morning. I was straight up rageful for the most part of of the morning. Went off to my doctors appointment and hung out with my friend for lunch and went grocery shopping. I was fine during all that and I've felt fine all night. Though not tired. As long as I'm not like I was yesterday morning.

6.7
94km S of Port Hardy, Canada
2014-04-24 03:10:13 UTC
11.4 km

Yep, that was a corn one!
I got a can of corn out,
told hubby I felt like I was going to fall asleep on my feet.
Asked him if he felt anything?
Said he felt crummy, was tired & going up to bed.
I went outside for a minute & when I came back in,
the eq alert was sounding!

So corn is for 6's, but not 7's or 8's???
And why sometimes creamed corn & other times popcorn?
It's not a conscious choice.
I just all of a sudden start craving one or the other.
I'm going to have to try & keep track of them
& see if there is a pattern.
WOQ

a reply to: wasobservingquietly
Last night, I got a bit plastered. That's very, very rare for me.*** (See note below.) But this edgy feeling that's been building for days was really wearing me down. Nothing helped. Not meditation, not eating corn, nothing.

I finally got to bed about 2.30 am my time. That quake off Vancouver Island hit at about 4.10 am my time. (I'm 9 hours ahead of Van Island and it happened at 19.10 local time [7.10 pm] Wednesday evening, which is 4.10 am Thursday here.)
This quake is not the biggest in that region I've ever seen, but it's getting up there.

(Source: USGS Earthquakes Map. ]

More importantly, at 11.4 km deep it was quite shallow and it's indicative of an event on the Juan de Fuca plate / Nth American plate boundary. That is, in the subduction zone. In that location, the subducting Juan de F. plate is not very deep. The further east we go from that red line (ie towards the mainland), the deeper it gets.

The aftershocks we are seeing there now are fairly typical for a shallow, strong quake. They aren't the main concern. What we need to watch out for now is any other significant quakes occurring south (or north) of this one, along or very near the same subduction zone boundary.

And has my own edginess gone away after this event? No, it hasn't. It's just as bad as it's been the past few days. This event, though important, was not "it". At least, not for me. I am still expecting something a good magnitude bigger, but that doesn't mean it has to be within that fault system.

If I put my "edginess index" on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being totally okay and 10 being practically bedridden (not kidding, btw), I'm at around an 8 or so. I still well recall the last time I was at a 10 because it was just before the Asia Quake and Tsunami in December 2004. If I get to a 10 I can barely function. Horrible feeling. (The Japan quake was bad, but I didn't get beyond an 8 with that one.)

I'd be interested in how others are feeling. What's your "edginess index" right now?




*** Note: I should mention that I did not do any moderating last evening and did very few "normal" posts. However ATS staff were aware of my rare, somewhat inebriated state because I let them know via a staff forum. (Also so they'd know I wouldn't be "modding" anything.)

a reply to: JustMike

Aw Mike...hope you're feeling better by now. I've had a very weird week on a personal level, and I just want to add, although it's hard to tell the wood from the trees sometimes, my instincts about stuff in my life I can prove, are bang on...like razors...100% all the time, which ultimately is a terrible thing. I'll spare the details.

So....when I'm anxious like this, probably a solid 8 or 9 on a ten point scale, I wonder if it's something else causing me to feel so bad. After all, I've pinpointed the real life stuff, and I still feel like crap. I want to scream and hurl abuse at about 6 different people, yet I'm calm on the surface and paddling like mad underneath. At least I don't have an Alaska headache, although that's not accurate by any means.

Stay safe everyone. *group hug*

a reply to: MariaLida

2014-04-24 03:10:12.0 49.78 N 127.49 W 10 6.5 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION

2014-04-18 14:27:26.0 17.46 N 100.87 W 26 7.2 GUERRERO, MEXICO

a reply to: JustMike

Hi, Mike!
I hope you'll be feeling better soon!
I don't have any sadness or edginess anymore,
but I do have energy building again.

Hubby says he's fine, but I can tell that he's not!
He seems to be weak, achy & wiped out.
We have noticed things when there's increased solar activity,
but don't know enough about it to say for sure.

Do you notice anything with solar?
Or are your symptoms worse for quakes in certain areas?
I'm thinking one in the S Pacific, then S America.
Not a 'feeling', just the way they seem to ping pong back & forth.
But if your symptoms get worse, maybe it's going to be Asia again?

Hope like hubby says, it hurries up & gets it over with!
This long drawn out stuff is no fun!
WOQ

originally posted by: JustMike
I'd be interested in how others are feeling. What's your "edginess index" right now?

*** Note: I should mention that I did not do any moderating last evening and did very few "normal" posts. However ATS staff were aware of my rare, somewhat inebriated state because I let them know via a staff forum. (Also so they'd know I wouldn't be "modding" anything.)

I love your professionalism, JustMike. You are a terrific asset to this forum!

On to your edginess question...I felt the "edginess" creeping up beginning about 2 days ago.
But I chalked it up to home life concerns. My son sprained his ankle (a g a i n), but this time the swelling hasn't gone down. So off to the doctor--x-rays--orthopedist; fractured fibula/lateral malleolus. It will be cast tomorrow, he will be fine.

But...I can't shake the unease. I'd rate it a 6, maybe 6.5.

Anyone else have a nagging "the other shoe is going to drop" feeling today? Myself and a couple of other people I know have had that feeling all day long, and the sense of anticipation/unease is driving us crazy.

I'd be interested in how others are feeling. What's your "edginess index" right now?

I missed this question from you, JustMike. I'd rank it a good 8.

No sleep last night again. I wasn't too edgy per se but that is what happens when I don't sleep. It's kinda like a sedative in its own way. I mellow a bit but sometimes it's too annoying. Been hungry but stubborn about eating anything really. I'd say I'm about a 5 on edgy.

a reply to: Nyiah

That's kinda how I feel...like sitting on a bomb. I'm still up there on a 7 or 8 if we can quantify what we're feeling at all, and it's horrible..it's also playing havoc with my physical symptoms, and if I sit still too long, all I can hear are these damned extra heartbeats that make it sound like my heart will pop through my ribs (had all that checked...tis nothing at all to worry about, but yeah...I'm stressed. )

You all speak about corn cravings. I just noticed I've been chowing down on a bag of Fritos for two days. One hand in the bag as we speak.

a reply to: rbkruspe

Ha, ha!
As Jeff Foxworthy says...there's your sign!!!
It's amazing how the body knows what it needs!

I don't usually drink pop/soda.
But every once in a while, I really crave a cold Pepsi!
But when I drank one, it just didn't kill the craving.
That's when I had a light bulb moment.
We buy Pepsi Throwback, no corn syrup in that!

Can't win!
WOQ

Hello everyone,

thank you all for the replies and greetings. I must apologize but basically I'll be doing several replies here in one post. It would look a bit crazy if I did six separate ones or even did them all with “reply to”.

Cait: I'm feeling about the same. That mag. 6.6 off Van Island wasn't “it” and I'm still waiting. And like you, I don't like this sort of feeling at all.

Maria: thank you for providing those data summaries. As you said earlier, there seems to be a link there. I'd be interested if you have any theory about the dynamics involved.

WOQ: I don't think solar is a big influence in my case. And for me (with major events) it seems there is some kind of regionality. I was badly affected before Sumatra 2004, ditto the Bam quake exactly one year prior to that (not so severely on some levels but more on others), quite badly before Japan 2011 but very little before the Haiti quake of 2010 – and the casualties in Haiti were far worse than those in Japan.

Olivine: Thank you for the comments. I would never moderate when I feel mentally incapable of being fair and balanced, or simply unable to keep things in perspective.
Very sorry to hear about your son. That sounds painful! I had an ankle in plaster for six weeks and it's most annoying and makes sleeping a bit awkward. (And bathing/showering!) Hopefully he'll heal nicely and soon enough.

Nyiah: Yes, I'm definitely waiting for the other shoe to drop. I keep asking myself “Where, where, where?” and get that same nagging “Hasta la vista”. Oh, and some old song – that I only know from an early Warner Brothers cartoon. That must sound very silly, I guess, but no kidding. It goes: “When the swallows come back to ….?? Capistrano??” Some Spanish-sounding name. Is there a place called Capistrano? I think there is but I can't place it. (It's almost 1 am here, so my recollective ability is a bit awry.)

rbkruspe: That's very interesting. Yes, not sleeping can be sedative. As you doubtless know, if we go too long without sleep our minds can do all sorts of weird and wonderful things. But if you're having trouble sleeping then try eating corn. Or oatmeal. Good natural sources for melatonin, which is what helps make us sleepy. Also soothes the nerves.

I'll post now. This is getting too long!!

Then I might have a bowl of corn flakes! (Not joking.)

a reply to: JustMike

Hi, Mike!
Yes, there is a Capistrano in Calif.!
The swallows return to the old mission there, every year on March 19th.
Although the last couple of years they have been nesting other places.
It's about halfway between L.A. & San Diego, right on the ocean.

Here's the song by The Ink Spots from 1940:
www.songlyrics.com...
WOQ

So many people around here are having all kinds of different personal problems!
Don't know if it's quake related or some kind of weird disturbance in the force!!!
Hubby says he feels something building, but can't tell if it's a quake or big seizure!
He said he almost had one twice today at work!

On the subject of solar activity, there is some chat on other sites about a glancing blow in the last day or two from a CME on the 24th, and one or two people have mentioned that there was similar activity a couple of days before the mag 9 in Japan. Maybe this is the other shoe we feel might drop. I'm not so bad today, but still this weird, lingering, very intense base anxiety that I cannot shake no matter what I do.

I also had a very vivid dream last night about being in a beach house somewhere, with boardwalks along the front, between the house and the beach. I was there with family members I havent seem since childhood, and we were watching the tide come in, knowing that it wasn't going to stop this time, and the house would be inundated eventually...in my dream, the waves were quite calm, but only maybe 6 feet from the front of the house. It was night time, and we could see the moon, and also a really bright planet through the clouds, and somehow knew the tide's behaviour was to do with the objects in the sky. Frightening, but with a feeling of complete helplessness too.

Has anyone else been getting of on trembling with total imbalance etc over the last 5+ hours....very strong, more than usual? Differece this time, all little haurs standing as if static all over? Irritated, tired, etc?

a reply to: StormyStars

Something similar to this has hit me in the last two hours...extreme tiredness, not quite sure I can stand up properly on occasions, a little dizzy, very painful back, hips, ribs, hands, neck. Emotionally, I'm fine...big difference from yesterday, but physically, just awful. I couldn't even get into my pjs by myself, and had to get hubby to help...soooo embarrassing. Hope you're feeling better.

a reply to: StormyStars

Hi!
I've been dizzy & off balance for awhile,
just thought I was trying to do too much on not enough sleep!
I've been taking advantage of all the extra energy I've been feeling!
Lots of ear ringing last night & today.

Before some bigger quakes, I get/give big shocks.
Cars, shelves/cans in the store, the cats, grandkids,
nothing is safe from me! I sound like a human bug zapper!!!
So loud & strong that other people can hear it!
Maybe that's along the lines of the static you are feeling?

Hubby gets a twitch, or 'pulse' in his leg that I can feel
if I lay my hand flat on him. He says he can't feel it though!
Guess we just have to keep observing,
to try & tie all these loose ends together!
WOQ

a reply to: caitlinfae

It has become worse, I was standing while picking out a DVD an hour ago & I never ever felt a rocking vertigo like that had me 90% faint! & still wobbly too!

a reply to: wasobservingquietly

Lots of ear ringing last night & today.

That started shortly after I posted, still happening but never ever this loud before....

I get/give big shocks.
Cars, shelves/cans in the store, the cats, grandkids,
nothing is safe from me! I sound like a human bug zapper!!!

Yes, me as well, this is stronger than when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans even, I can't have regular TV on as channels, volume & power do goofy stuff like chane, shut off or keep increasing in volume & the radio is too much so have just watched DVD movies/shows, even comp is messing up....

Maybe that's along the lines of the static you are feeling?

Could be, but it's never been so drastic before or spiine chilling.....

'pulse' in his leg that I can feel
if I lay my hand flat on him

My cous/ flatmates are the same, but one can't stay awake and the other is so agitated without knowing why, he can't be stilled or think even!

I think whatever is about to happen is going to be more monumental than in centuries.....