An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Hi WOQ,

good to hear you're feeling good.

It's now been over 2 months since the last mag 7 or bigger quake back on Nov 25. We've had even longer intervals than that in the past, but it is relatively uncommon to go 2 months or more between these events. However I just want to emphasize something I said a while back: a long time between larger events does not have to mean that the next one will be bigger -- or at least, not significantly so. While that is what our intuition might say, it's not the reality.

A while back I did a study of all mag 7 or bigger quakes between 1 Jan 1974 and Dec 31 2011 that were logged in the NEIC database. In that time, there were 528 such events. However, there were only 53 cases where there was an interval of 61 days (ie the total of 2 "average" months) or more between events. Of those 53 cases, there were only 12 where the second event was bigger than the first one by 0.5 magnitude or more. And as for a mag 7-range quake being followed by a mag 8 or bigger, that happened (thankfully) on just two occasions:
DATA.....YEAR..MM..DD..TIME(UTC)...LAT....LONG...DEPTH(KM)..MAG
PDE.....1986..08..14..193913.67......1.79...126.52.....33..........7.4..MSBRK...4FM
PDE.....1986..10..20..064609.98....-28.12..-176.37....29...........8.3..MSBRK...FM .T
(Interval 67 days)

And:
DATA.....YEAR..MM..DD..TIME(UTC)...LAT....LONG...DEPTH(KM)..MAG
PDE.......2006..08..20..034148.04...-61.03..-34.37......13.........7.0..MwGS...M
PDE.......2006..11..15..111413.57....46.59..153.27.....10..........8.3..MwGCMT..4CM.T
(Interval 87 days)

Notice that in both cases, the second event occurred in an entirely different part of the world from the first one.

I am still studying data on quake intervals (including the Centennial Quake list for the entire 20th century), but the best I can say for now is the concept that there ought to be a significantly bigger quake after a long interval since the last mag 7-plus has no real factual basis. Or, to put it more simply, we should not expect that there will be a huge one. If it happens then it's a very rare event.

reply to post by JustMike


Hi, Mike!
Interesting info & statistics!
So only around 10% have an interval of that long or more!
Until I started watching USGS & then found ATS & Quake Watch,
I had no idea that there even were that many large quakes!

The lack of coverage by the media,
except for the 'newsworthy' ones, doesn't help either!
I actually did see mention of one lately, (maybe Greece?),
on the ticker of the Weather Channel, of all places!

I stopped to think about it...since I've started watching quakes,
we've had: Haiti, Chile, Christchurch & Japan!
And that doesn't even take places like China in to account.
Which made me wonder, so I did a little digging.

I never knew that 90,00 people died in China in 2008!
Of course it takes longer to get information from there.
Even last year, almost 200 killed & 6,700 injured in one!
A lot of observing to do!!!
WOQ

Hey JustMike, I was looking for more info regarding strainmeters, and happily come upon this post of yours from 2008.
From that post:

From two days to two weeks prior to an earthquake, the Old Faithful Geyser of California gives warning by delaying its regular performance from the average thirty minutes to a longer interval. During this prolonged interval, it may send up "splits," small eruptions to no more than two or three feet in height, every few minutes. Finally, after the long delay, a 60-foot column of water and steam shoots upward.

(From the information page of Old Faithful Geyser.com. Website here.)


Really interesting reading. Unfortunately, the woman who owned the Calistoga geyser site and recorded the eruption intervals, passed away a few years ago. I haven't had any luck finding the actual data, except summarized in the paper by the late Paul G Silver published in 1992.

What I did stumble upon, is this 2012, 5-page pdf discussing the mechanics of the Calistoga geyser. It states the geyser was erupting every 4.6 minutes! That's a big difference from 20 years earlier!

I was hoping to find a webcam of the geyser, so that we could check up on the eruption inverval, because I think I've found a significant deviation in strain in a borehole about 150 kms from Calistoga (it's the nearest to the geyser that I can access data). The 1992 paper shows deviation in strain from a strainmeter located halfway between the geyser & the epicenter of the 1989 Loma Prieta quake, along with the longer eruption interval of the geyser in the 60 hours preceding the quake.

Before I get too invested in this strain data, I'm going to head over to QuakeWatch and see if I can get some help.
This thread is a treasure trove of good info.

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Yes, the two-months-or-longer interval between mag 7 or bigger quakes only seems to happen around 10% of the time. But when it's gone two months, about 70% of the time the next one will occur within another month. In that data I studied, there were only 16 events (in 38 years) where the interval was 91 days (approx 3 months) or more. That is, 16 out of a total of 528 events. (Roughly 3% of all events -- and 30% of the events with a gap of over two months or more.)

So, if we don't get another mag 7 or bigger quake before Feb 25, while it's a pretty rare situation it's by no means unheard of.

Regarding China: yes, 2008 was a very bad year for them, especially due to the mag 7.9 (Mw) Sichuan quake on May 12. Officially it killed over 69,000 people, and in addition there were more than 18,000 who were listed as missing. Sadly, most of them were probably buried in rubble or by landslides and will never be found. This quake also left about 4.8 million people homeless.

4,800,000 people. Suddenly homeless, through absolutely no fault of their own. All in one day, from a quake that lasted about two minutes.

How utterly awful!

For me, human losses and suffering of this magnitude are almost incomprehensible. The numbers are just too big to really take in.

I lost a home -- to fire, not a quake. I know how awful that feeling is, but I was lucky as no-one was hurt. All I lost were material items and yes, while we usually grieve those kinds of losses we also adapt and find ways to get on with life fairly quickly. The things we lose don't really matter that much; nowhere near as much as we might have thought they did. That's what I found, anyway.

Disasters like this are far, far worse, because it's not just the homes, it's the people they lost at the same time: children, partners and other loved ones, friends, neighbours, schoolmates, co-workers...

As I said, it's beyond my comprehension. We can sometimes shelter from storms, flee from fires, head to higher ground from tsunamis and other flood disasters, but with a major quake there is just nowhere that's really safe to go, and no time to get away in any case.

Every time there is a "big one", anywhere in the world, my first thoughts are for the people. Not their homes, though it's terrible to lose a home, but for the human beings who are caught up in it. Like many of us here, I think, these disasters hit me hard. Every life lost is a tragedy, but when there are sometimes thousands or even tens of thousands, all gone in moments, with countless others injured and suffering, it affects me like nothing else.

Things have been relatively quiet these past few months. That is simply how it goes, sometimes. But sooner or later the next bad one will happen and just the thought of it -- well, it makes me feel very low.

reply to post by Olivine

Hi Olivine. Amazing that you managed to find a post of mine from 6 years ago! I had almost forgotten that one.

But yes, geyser activity is one of those mysteries. Some of them show unusual variatrions from their norms prior to quakes, but I'm not sure researchers have even discovered exactly why. They may have some ideas, but trying to pin down direct cause-and-effect mechanisms must be very hard due to the variable factors in each case.

However, though we may not know the precise "why", at least we know they are an indicator and that alone makes it even more important to keep track of these geysers and maintain good databases. And these days, when webcams can be used to monitor them, it's much easier than it used to be. They don't need anyone physically there, just an online-accessible webcam in real time. Then many can follow and observe.

Thank you also for the .pdf link. I've downloaded a copy to study in detail.

caitlinfae
reply to post by Olivine

 

Hi everyone...

Hope you're all ok. Just logging yet another tsunami dream from last night. In my dream, I watched a huge wave sweep in to the village I was standing in flooding everything to a depth of about 10 feet. I managed to escape to a higher floor, but while I was standing on the ground, I felt water soak up from underneath, maybe symbolising liquifaction? The ground was sodden anyway, maybe from rainfall, I don't know. I felt like it was in some rural part of Scotland weirdly enough, or some small coastal village, northern place, grey skies, cold climate.

Hope that's a one off dream anyway...exhausting and upsetting.

Morning all.. Hope you're all ok today. I've been watching and reading, but not feeling very much recently, until today and I've woken up in a lot of pain...all the usual stuff, painful joins, palpitations, sore skin, and am very foggy.

Anyway, it also just struck me as I was reading the Ragnarok thread that the dream I had a few weeks ago might have been about the storms hitting the UK just now. Many similarities, and we've had the highest waves ever recorded in the UK just in the last few days..75 feet, I think. Whole sections of the south west are underwater and look like they might stay that way. Nothing to do with earthquakes thankfully this time, but the rainfall here is bad enough. There is a whole string of storms crossing the Atlantic and hitting us every second or third day just about...never experienced this before.

Stay safe everyone.

Just checking in to see if anyone else's 'Spidey' senses are tingling?!

I just typed a few paragraphs,
& lost them when I tried to click on a mistake in the preview portion!!!
Aaaagh!!! I'm done! Not feeling up to redoing the whole thing!
This will be the condensed version!!!

Just wanted to log here because hubby was bad enough today,
that he had to come home from work 2 hours after he got there.
He must have looked awful & worried people,
because he said they kept asking him if he felt okay.

His boss even called the house to make sure he got home okay!
He said he has known hubby for over 30 years & never saw him look like that!
Must have scared him pretty good. He wanted somebody to drive him home,
but hubby said he was okay, just wanted to go home & rest.

Both of us have had ear ringing off & on.
Fairly loud, not constant, but keeps coming back again.
It's getting more insistent as time goes on.
I had a few minutes of weird vision too.
Not all the regular symptoms like before the 6.9 in China a few days ago,
but weird enough to think we better check in!!!
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Hey.. Not really spidey sense as such, but I'm as sore as hell this morning, absolutely aching all over, joints, muscles, ribs in particular, for no reason that I can pinpoint. Odd scary dream last night about a car crash too, I was driving, but nothing more than the sensation of a huge jolt or impact and I was just sitting there afterwards. I've had a couple of ear rings recently too which I don't usually get, and this weather situation in the UK is freaking me out a little after my last dream about waves hitting coastal villages and water bubbling up through the ground, which is all happening now.

So I don't know...I had a flash of something happening yesterday, during the day while I was awake, so I know I wasn't dreaming it. Just a strong idea that we're facing something we haven't seen before imminently, like in the nest two weeks. It might be the floods reaching London, which makes me feel sick when I think about it, but I can't be sure. I had a feeling it was in the US somewhere, but it was very vague. Thinking about it now, it's like something dropped, an impact, with some kind of downward movement, but it's massive, like the size of Texas. Maybe I'm seeing a low pressure system, rather than seismic activity, which I might expect to be upwards, or sideways.

Come to think of it, my dog was behaving very oddly on the evening of the 13th, when we had that huge storm, hit the UK. He was very subdued, until we went to bed, and then he paced round the house on and off all night. The pressure here was down to 956, I believe, so maybe that was to blame.

Stay safe everyone..

M 4.1 - 12km WNW of Edgefield, South Carolina

Time
2014-02-14 21:23:38 UTC-06:00
Location
33.812°N 82.063°W
Depth
4.8km

It's after 5 AM here & I never went to bed!
Too restless & hungry.
Hubby went to bed, but kept jumping up in his sleep.
I just looked at USGS & saw this:

6.7
172km NNE of Bathsheba, Barbados

2014-02-18 09:27:14 UTC
17.5 km

There's your sign!
Was this starting to move & causing the moderate ones
in the Caribbean & Central America in the last few days?
Did it have anything to do with the three in N & S Carolina?
Hmmm...
WOQ

Hubby called from work an hour before quitting time & asked how the quakes were.
He's been having a really rough day again.
Symptom wise he said it got up to a 6 or 7!!!
Down to a 5 or 6 now that he's home he said.

Looked at USGS & did see 3 quakes in Indonesia in less than 6 hours,
& increasing in magnitude. Foreshocks???

5.4
171km SE of Sinabang, Indonesia
2014-02-22 17:29:53 UTC
39.7 km

5.1
180km SSE of Sinabang, Indonesia
2014-02-22 17:27:58 UTC
21.5 km

4.7
169km SSE of Sinabang, Indonesia
2014-02-22 11:45:35 UTC
10.0 km

I Didn't sleep until after 5 AM again & was so hungry too.
Right now I have tons of energy & my ears are ringing too.
Wait & watch I guess!!!
WOQ
*********************
2 hours later & my energy is still building!!!
It is awesome! I haven't had this much energy in years!
Wish I could bottle it for later!
Feel like I could move a whole mountain by myself!

It is a beautiful, sunny day & 40*F here finally!
But that can't be the only reason.
We do see the sun occasionally in the winter! Lol!

Hubby's symptoms are down to a 4 or 5 now,
but we ate & are still starving!
My ears haven't stopped ringing, but it's not increasing.
If it's not a big quake building, what the heck IS it???

Being 'chatty' also seems to be one of my symptoms!!!

reply to post by kattraxx


Facebook supernaturalhorsemanship

Oh my goodness.....the more this kind of stuff happens, the more I believe it is more than a coincidence.


My head has been horrible most of the afternoon. Not a normal headache, but intense pressure. I've had a few dizzy spells. I wrote it off to getting a bug or something.

Then I saw that there was a 6.9 quake south of me...now, my head is doing it again and my ears are ringing so loud that my hearing is seriously muffled.

I REALLY hope this is all a coincidence. If it isn't...well, it's not over yet.

Lets hope your right, that was it.

I was watching the quakes going up the coast and made a Flippit remark about how it was Cali's turn. I get home from work and the 6.9 happens. Lots of good size aftershocks. If my memory serves me I read someplace that this area is prone to larger quakes. I have to go back and read again.

I hope you feel better

reply to post by westcoast


Hope you're feeling better...and no more big quakes...it's very worrying.

It's after the event, but I'm logging it anyway. I 've had a couple of very sore days, with lots of joint and muscle pain in weird places that I don't usually get it, like my finger joints and ankles, and last night about 8pm GMT I had a massive ear ring in my left ear that lasted a few seconds...I don't usually get them, so I even noticed the time as it was so unusual. I've been pretty careful with my diet, and the weather here for once is warm and calm with high pressure in charge, so I can't blame that for how I feel.

Stay safe everyone. Please have a plan together just in case.

So I'm hoping this will help me chalk all this up to coincidence. Here goes;

My head just started feeling really weird again like it did a few hours before the quake off-shore N Cali a couple days ago.

We had a nice day today and I'm thinking pollen is exploding. I don't normally have allergies...but it would make sense. SO...here's to hoping it really is just allergies/sinuses, and there isn't another largish quake tonight in the West.

reply to post by westcoast


I hadn't considered pollen allergies, but I guess it might be. Maybe a little early here, as we still have very hard frosts in the mornings, although this week looks like all sunshine. I have no allergy symptoms either, like sore sinuses. Every other bit of me hurts though, and it's making me a bit crazy...I burst into tears last night through sheer frustration at not being able to get pain free no matter what I do. Today it's bad, and my brother's girlfriend has taken him to the docs in Houston cos he's "achy and whiny"...which sums me up too. We both have minor heart conditions, and joint problems, but something else is going on for sure.

Has anyone been watching the Dutchsince videos? He's been talking for a while about movement along the edge of the North American craton, from the west coast, though Oklahoma and up to New York. I'm just wondering what you all think of that..he seems to be pretty accurate in what he's predicting sometimes.

Emotionally I'm fine, just the constant physical pain and aching, it's like stress building up that can't be released. I feel like I need to go and find a hot spring to sit in for a few hours.

Hey all I just now laying here in my bed perfectly still reading ATS got a pretty nasty but short-lived bout of vertigo. I've had some severe heartburn issues which I don't really think are related to quakes but had me down for a good two days.

I took note yesterday however that it was really really warm like about 75 and sunny and yet my apartment had not 1 ounce of ant activity. During the winter I have enjoyed little to no ants in my kitchen or bathroom because it's just been too cold for them to really come out and move about. Though the second it warms up even just a little they are out and about if I have even just a speck of anything in the kitchen sink. I have to be constantly vigilant however with me being sick I had a few dishes in the sink and something on the stove more than enough for them to come out and full force and I haven't seen one I thought that was very strange and I saw the quake couple days ago. Since I don't have any other animals they're the only things I have to go on and I have noticed when they're nowhere to be seen that usually indicates something now that I'm not sure what it is.

Also yesterday and last night into this morning have done no sleep and I've had bouts of just general uneasiness mentally however I guess I thought that having been in so much pain in getting back to my normal routine as I slowly got better it might be expected. My head's been hurting too tonight off and on and it's really annoying.

And yet another short lived but strong bout of vertigo out of nowhere. Again, sitting completely still. This is very odd indeed. Also annoying! I'm gonna keep a list aside from posts here. I haven't had vertigo in ages either. Seems worthy of a log.

I haven't posted anything for a while. I hope everyone is doing well. I just thought I would pop in and tell everyone what's been going on at our house. Some of you know that I live in Kentucky, yep that's right, the New Madrid is in my backyard.....

We have a pet rabbit, she will be 5 years old in April. She was an Easter present for our daughter. We have had her since she was just a tiny little bunny, so I know all of her bahaviors and why she does what she does. She is so sweet and just the cutest little thing. She is a mini lop ear, she is very gentle and has a very good temperament.

Anyone who has ever owned a rabbit knows that if they feel threatened they will "thump" on the bottom of their cage. They use their back feet to make a REALLY loud thumping sound. I have heard our rabbit do this a couple of times in the last 5 years, it has always been if we had someone over who brought their dog with them (she doesn't like dogs). And she did it a couple of times during a really bad thunderstorm. I was such a bad storm that the thunder would actually shake our house.

Last night at about 10:30 she started thumping in her cage and would not stop. Honestly, she did it at least 30 times over a 2 hour period. I thought something was wrong with her. I had just given her more food and water and was concerned that maybe she was choking or something. I took her out of her cage and held her for a little bit and she was fine. When I put her back she started thumping again. I went to bed around 12:30 and woke up this morning to a horrible noise. I thought one of the kids had dropped something in the kitchen, but it was her.

I have no idea what any of this means, if anything at all. I have just never seen her act this way unless she feels threatened.
I just wanted to put this out there, just in case.
Anyone else's animals acting odd?