An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by amarenell


Yeah, hubby too! I caught him taking aspirin last night!
Probably was the 6.1 in Indonesia around 3:30ish EST?

He gets chest pain, it feels like somebody has him in a bear hug.
He has a hard time taking a deep breath. Pressure pushing down on top of his shoulders.
Sometimes, not always, pain just in one temple & a vein raised across it!
Once in awhile, arm pain or numbness too.

It was a little scary until he was checked out good the first few times!
He doesn't take any meds, has normal blood pressure & cholesterol,
no heart issues, is almost 6 feet tall & slim. And works out almost every day.

The first couple of times it happened, was at night or on a weekend.
So we went to the ER. The doc the last time, was a little rude!
He told him to see his family doctor for 'his issues', don't use the ER!
He must have looked at his chart & thought hypochondriac,
since they were never able to find anything!

Then I found this thread & kept track & realized there was a connection!
He goes to the doctor regularly, especially until they finally found out that he has Celiac!
He has had stress tests, EKGs, the doplar thingy?, carotid artery & aneurism check,
every test that they could think of!!!

So now he says no more ER! If it doesn't go away eventually & there is no quake,
then he'll wait 'til morning or Monday & call our family doc!
Here, people say if you go to our hospital for an infected hangnail,
they will want to amputate your hand! So we try to avoid it anyway!

He jokes that his headstone will probably say: 'I guess it WASN'T an earthquake!'
WOQ

Good to see folks commenting after a little period of quiet.

Always wondered about it, you know. We do this: we go quiet for a while then we all seem to come back.

Personally, not been feeling too great last three days or so. No ailment that I can nail it down to. Just a general feeling of not being quite right. This is how I sometimes feel in the days leading up to a larger event. However it doesn't always mean there will be one.

FWIW I did find myself focusing quite a lot on the Loma Prieta quake in the past day though. I mean the "World Series Quake" as it became known due to when it happened. I looked at it because some of the destruction that occurred cost lives that need never have been lost, but for the fact that people didn't want to see the damned obvious.

Here's what I mean. Loma Prieta was significant because it was the first major event in that region in more modern times -- meaning in the era when there is modern infrastructure like overpasses and complex freeway interchanges all over the place. And we saw what happened with parts of the viaduct collapsing.

I expect a lot of work and study has been done try and reduce the risks of a similar collapse in a future event, but as always, I wonder more about what might be overlooked as the focus shifts to the suddenly obvious.

I mentioned several times here that the PNW is vastly under-prepared for its eventual and possibly mag 9.0 quake-plus-tsunami major event. And when it finally happens, the need for all that protective infrastructure a-la Japan style (sea walls, escape towers etc) will suddenly be very obvious and as always, people will ask why so little was done sooner, when TPTB knew what was possible.

But back to Loma Prieta and what became suddenly obvious there. The viaducts and some other infrastructures were clearly at risk and when this medium-large event hit, they failed. Clearly, they hadn't designed them well enough -- and this in a region where quakes of this size are pretty much given to occur sooner or later.

The thing that bothers me now is that drainage canal aspect we were discussing a few months back. How one canal (or several) could be flooded rather unexpectedly in more than one way -- and from either direction, either down towards the coast from the hills after a dam failure, or up from the coast and to the lower reaches of the foothills, after a tsunami.

It's bothersome because it's only going to became an "obvious" risk once something happens.

Do you follow what I mean?

So if you've stayed with me this far, I have a question: what other "obvious" risks are being overlooked? It doesn't have to be in Cal, or the PNW, but think about it. What risks could be very severe, are not "officially" obvious right now, but will be after something happens? In our field of discussion, I mean.

reply to post by JustMike


Hi Mike

Interesting question, especially the timing. Let me explain.

You grabbed my attention when you mentioned the Loma Prieta quake, because I finished reading a book 2 weeks ago, titled "Magnitude 8", that was devoted to the San Andreas Fault (published 1998, I think).
The author devoted a large section to the Loma Prieta (he is a north bay resident). What really captured my attention was his discussion of the aging dams in California, and the bay area in particular.

Not only do residents have to risk falling buildings and freeways, but walls of water from decrepit dams. This website from the Association of Bay Area Governments has an associated inundation map. Here is a screen grab of a portion of the map.


Serious seismic retrofitting is needed for many of these structures, or better yet, demolition. In a happen coincidence, a few California dams are being demolished to help rehabilitate fisheries. Here is a link to the largest dam removal project in the state's history, on the Carmel River.

I hope you feel better, and that it doesn't take a very strong earthquake to alleviate your discomfort.

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

He jokes that his headstone will probably say: 'I guess it WASN'T an earthquake!'
WOQ

At least that might be better than if it was! (My gallows humor there. No offense intended, WOQ! )

reply to post by Olivine

Hi Olivine,

it's good to see they are taking some pro-active measures in respect of the potential dam inundation scenarios. The other side of things -- a tsunami coming up the canals (as happened in places in Japan) -- is probably a much tougher nut to crack, though. Realistically there's probably not a whole lot they could do about it. But on the plus side, the odds of such a tsunami event in that part of Cali are probably way less than a quake-triggered dam failure anyway, so if they're beginning to do what they can to alleviate that risk to some extent, then it's far better than just hoping that it never happens.

Hello all..

Thought I would just check in to say hi and it's very nice to be back after a few weeks of house moving and no broadband. Weird but nice in a way and I got so much done without the distractions!

I've had very few symptoms in the last five weeks, but the last few days have been horrible..all the usual stuff, and it's a shock when they've all been absent for a while. Got palpitations, neck pain, back and front, extreme tiredness, sore joints, muscle weakness, verging on panic attacks. I totally embarrassed myself at the supermarket today when I could barely lift the bags out of the trolley to put them in the car. I hope no one noticed...felt like such an old woman. It wasn't just pain, it was no strength at all to shift them.

And I'm trying so hard not to link all this to TA's Toba thread. I don't like Toba, not one little bit.



Will check in again tomorrow when I've done some catch up reading....hope you're all feeling ok.

reply to post by caitlinfae

Hi Cait,

good to see you back. Sounds like you're settling in to the new place quite nicely. Not so good to hear about the symptoms you've been having, though. Sounds like you're being quite strongly affected by something.

Hopefully though it's nothing to do with Toba. I know that TA posted about the latest quake there, but as there have have been similar and even larger quakes there over the years and they haven't led to anything, we can hope that nothing much will occur this time. Also, a recent rather detailed study I read strongly suggests that nothing much is likely to occur at Toba for quite some time yet, as the cycles of activity there apparently run over some hundreds of thousands of years and it's only been ~75,000 years since the last major event.

There is even some doubt as to whether there is much of a magma chamber under Toba now anyway. A magma chamber, maybe, but not at a "super-volcano scale".

The dynamics of magma formation at Toba seem rather different from Yellowstone. In Toba's case it's most likely directly from a subducting plate rather than the (hypothesized) "hot spot" situation at YS. In any case, the studies referenced give us some idea of what the processes at work in and beneath Toba may be.

The report, published in Quaternary International (2011) and entitled The Toba Caldera Complex is available at the link as a PDF (3.2 MB) from geo.mtu.edu.

It's a bit technical in places but generally readable and includes some excellent graphics. Worth a look.

It's been a while, but I'm feeling those feelings, and seeing some signs.

Big

Peace

Most likely a dream brought on by future travel anxiety, but in October we are going to be Holidaying in New Zealand, and flying into Christchurch and then road tripping it down further into the south island - but I dreamt I was google mapping where we are staying (around the Queenstown area, about 550k south of CHC) and then I clicked on a live web stream to just see what was going on real time, and the hill with houses I was looking at just started sliding away, and all the houses disappeared under black sand/dirt, and then after shaking the camera shorted out. I tried to look something up and then post on here to see if Muzzy or PM could check it quickly for me - but my internet wouldn't work quick enough to let me post it - I eventually found out it was a 7.8 a bit further away, I think towards Milford Sound, but I remember thinking it would have had to have been much bigger to cause damage in the area in which I was watching.

So, no idea what it was about, but I thought I should post in for just in case! I haven't posted much in here in a long while as I feel pretty average all the time, nothing has been sticking out as unusual until this dream.

Been fighting to stay awake for the last 4 hours!
Got enough sleep last night, so that's not it!
Was even falling asleep at the computer.
The only thing that stopped me was my head falling down & snapping back!!!

This happened before a quake a while back.
Felt like somebody took my batteries out!
Now it's like somebody slipped me a sleeping pill!

Hubby says his symptoms were a 5 or 6 earlier, but now down to a 3.
He doesn't want to say quake though, because he's been working in the heat all week!
Hard to tell what it's from. He's been feeling something off & on for awhile.
Anyone else?
WOQ

Evening everyone...how are you all doing?

I had to post quickly before bed because my symptoms are off the chart tonight. No anxiety at all, but the physical stuff is immense....very painful joints, all of them, but especially my ankles and feet for some reason, but also neck and elbows.

I should have posted about the New Zealand quake 2 days ago. I had a little uptick in symptoms, which makes sense as it was in the high 6's, but not quite the 7 which I think I feel. I even has a name, and location, which is a first for me, but I didn't post, so I can't prove it. Meh.

If that theory holds true, them what I'm feeling now is at least an 8. Something is trying to make me put 9.4 but I'm shooing that thought away hard. I have no idea about location.

Tomorrow is the day of the big celestial alignment, so will be very interesting to see what transpires. I also suspect there might be a royal baby putting in am appearance here, if the Windsors are as keen on astrology as we think.

Sleep well everyone, and I hope I'm way way off the mark, as usual!

I believe you, Cait. I've felt a draw to the area myself, and spent yesterday with GEE opened & focused solely on the South Karori seismo. I never run that one, it's never interested me enough to watch (no offense to New Zealanders) But this...I feel like we should at least pay attention for the time being.

I had another dream last night. This one wasn't about NZ like the other nights dream was though, It was awful, but I won't go into that part as I don't want to think about it again -

We were out meeting with people, and went back to someones home, which was right on a marina - they had huge windows and an open ceiling, like a retractable window that goes across, I said to the owner who was quite wealthy 'how do you like living here? do you worry about the waves?' and he just laughed and said not really, but just as he said that one washed into the house, enough to just get us a little wet, but for some reason everyone laughed it off, and then through the big window you could see another one, at least, 10-20 metres coming in, and everyone was underwater. Then it was like we were above the house and could see that it had filled up so that the open ceiling looked like a swimming pool. It went on, but like I said, too traumatic to go into further details (Which I think are relating to separation anxiety about putting my little one in daycare)

As for location - we were in southern California - and I didn't feel an EQ - the waves were really unexpected, so it would have been elsewhere, Japan? PNW? Alaska? Hawaii shelf collapse? No idea.

I don't know whats up with me of late, I usually have great dreams, or ones I don't remember, but this last week or so I've had nightmares about 3 or 4 nights

Both cats have been acting weird for hours now.
Old cat was racing around through the house a couple of times.
Thought he was chasing young cat, but then I saw she was sleeping!

Then later I was at the computer & when I went to stand up,
I almost stepped on both of them!
One was on each side of my feet!
They don't lay under the desk at the same time.
Especially within breathing distance of each other!

We did have a quick storm pass through tonight, but not close or loud.
Old cat doesn't pay any attention to them.
Young cat is scared of them, always hides under the couch!
But tonight she stayed by me instead. First time since we got her!
Old one has been crying off & on all day.
Young one trilling & wanting attention.

Hubby felt weird earlier, but not the regular quake symptoms.
My ears have been ringing, but nothing else so far.

It HAS been pretty quiet today.....
Not my fault if something shows up! Just sayin' !!!
WOQ

I've felt awful the past days and couldn't really explain it. I thought it was monthly lady happenings but its not just that. My head has been killing me, and I have been in bed and stuff. I never do that. Now I noticed I've gotten rather nauseated and dizzyish the past few hours. First time in a long time I've felt crappy. Hope everyone else is. Holding up well.. I'm probably going to sleep early again.

reply to post by rbkruspe


Ok...we may as well admit we're twins. I'm in the same place as you, but also have started my new business this week, so I'm straight into 7 days a week, 10 hours a day, and putting all my aches and odd feelings down to that. But then you pipe up with exactly the same symptoms and I'm starting to wonder. I have had dizzy spells, which are unusual for me, and that weird squished rib feeling I get occasionally...it's very disturbing. I also noticed that someone posted a thread yesterday about a 5.9 in California, which is no big deal really, but they were instantly talking about Sacramento again, a place that has been mentioned in this thread repeatedly.

Hope you feel better soon!

I'm the same as you two ladies today, feeling really woozy all afternoon. Was doing some cleaning and had to sit down because I felt like I'd pass out if I kept on standing. I do have a mild cold though so its probably just that. It is funny though that a lot of us are feeling so similar all within a few hours!

Aren't well all synced up again or what? I'm completely drained, like I have no battery charge at all. It's taking a tremendous amount of effort to stay sitting upright and not keel over in exhaustion. I'd go to sleep, except I can't. "Tired but wired"... I've also had muted hearing episodes all night. 30 seconds here, a minute there, etc.

Man, I'm so antsy tonight, I can't even sit still at the computer!!!
First time that has ever happened!

Feel like I want to peel my 'skin' off & step out of it.
What the heck is up with that???

Both cats are sleeping so far,
so they must not be feeling anything.

Hubby's no help this time, he had two seizures Wednesday night,
so he's still so sore & uncomfortable that he can't feel anything else!

Maybe it's not quake related, I'm not starving yet.
Anything solar going on???
WOQ

Wow, nobody but me posting for two weeks?
No one feeling anything in all that time...
or just too wiped out to feel like posting???

Had to log this just because it's soo out of the ordinary!
Hubby said old cat woke him at 4 this morning crying really weird!
He has to get up at 5 & neither cat has ever done that before.
Hubby was afraid to check me, thought maybe I had 'moved' on!!!

Then a few hours later, young cat came upstairs & jumped on the bed.
She was crying, trilling & really coaxing!
I wondered how she could be out of food or water already?
When I checked, she still had both!
We've had her almost 3 years & she never came upstairs until last week..
And she never came in, jumped up & cried to wake me up!

Then she went over into the bathroom & jumped into the tub & laid down!!!
The shower curtain was even closed! (tornado cat?!)
She was a rescue cat that was living in the woods by our house.
As far as we know she's only ever even been upstairs once or twice before.
And never in the bathroom. We never had an animal that willingly jumped into the tub!!!
(Don't know what they do when we're not home,
but we usually close the hall door so they can't get upstairs.)

Now old cat is sleeping under the desk. Not real unusual,
he's done it for quakes before, but not usually in the daytime.
So, just logging it, in case it turns out to be something!
We both thought it was too many weird, new things at one time!
Don't know if it's quake related, or something else going on...
but it sure is really weird.....not liking wondering what it could be!!!
WOQ

Morning all... It's just after 4am here, and I'm posting cos I just don't feel right. It could be domestic stuff stressing me out but just in case....

Extreme anxiety, lots of pain in joints and muscles the last couple of days and quite distressingly, I'm starting to see stuff. Nothing frightening, just weird, like seeing forests when I close my eyes and catching sight of things moving in my peripheral vision. Ok...you're thinking Caitlinfae has finally flipped...lol! Maybe I have. Could all just be stress, but who knows.


Hope you're all ok....will check back later.


Cxxx