An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Hi everyone,

just dropping by to see how you all are and what's being noticed (or not).

My own observations from a couple of weeks back don't seem to have panned out at all and to be frank I'm a bit bothered by that. As you all know I don't really mind being wrong, but all the same I'm puzzled that Sth America (especially) has been so quiet lately. Yes, they've had a few mid-range mag 5s but they are not all that unusual up and down the west coast of Sth America. The lack of anything much bigger just seems odd.

I'll have to dig back through the records in the NEIC database and see whether these lulls are actually not all that unusual. My memory says they don't seem to be, but memory can be quite unreliable in such matters.

And Cait: I hear what you're saying about ley lines. It's still a bit of a controversial subject but even so, there is a fair amount of sense in the concept from the point of view of energy transfer. And living things are sensitive to various forms of energy and this may influence behaviour. So, it's worth looking into further.

Just by the way, this thread was started by kattraxx on May 14, 2008, so it's now been running for five years (and a few days)!

If any of you haven't read through the whole thread yet and if you ever have the time to actually do so (and I agree, it's a huge thread ), you'll notice a couple of things. First, there is a huge amount of technical information here and all along, many members have done their best to add to the knowledge base. Even a person who knows nothing at all about earthquakes, tectonics or seismology will have a pretty good understanding of the basics after reading this thread.

Second, the thread holds evidence that some people (and animals) are able to sense approaching quakes and even forecast where and when they might occur and in some cases, how strong they may be. True, it's not definitive, but it's sure interesting.

Third, there are quite a few charlatans on the world wide web, who pretend to be able to predict quakes with incredible accuracy but in actuality do not, most often because they fudge their data and also use methods to determine their accuracy that just don't make sense. A few of the more notorious ones are documented in this thread.

Fourth, it is also fairly well documented here that while some nations (like Japan) are quite well prepared for major quakes and have been taking steps at official levels to at least minimize their destructive effects, others are woefully under-prepared, either because the powers that be (TPTB) don't wish to allocate the needed funding or simply go on pretending that such major events can't happen to them in the near future. This certainly applies in the PNW of the USA, where there is still not an ultra-efficient Japan-style tsunami early-warning system in place for residents there, nor are there even protective sea walls in the coastal regions most likely to be badly hit by the next big Cascadia tsunami.

This means that it's really up to individuals in these regions to prepare themselves as best they can for what's possible. Note I say "possible". While it's a given in scientific circles that there will be another major quake and tsunami event in the PNW, figuring out when is still beyond even the very best in the business. It could be decades or even centuries from now. Or it could happen today. And as the authorities are not treating the matter urgently, locals should.

Over in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, things are far less clear. The studies of the faults in the region are still ongoing and experts are not of one accord about if (or when) there might be another major event like those in 1811/12. At least, far fewer see such a thing as geologically imminent. However, as there is a potential risk, and as TPTB in the region don't seem all that motivated to spend $$$$ to mitigate the effects of a major quake, the locals should at least know something about what happened 200 years ago.

That information is available in this thread.

Fifth, this thread has never been a "doom and gloom" fest and I feel most of us here appreciate how unproductive such predictions can be. For example a few years back there was a thread predicting a magnitude 10-point-something earthquake that was supposed to strike off China and cause a huge tsunami that would kill millions. Obviously it didn't happen and the fact is, for purely physical reasons it was impossible to begin with and I said so at the time.

Now, I'm no expert but you don't need a string of degrees to grasp the fundamentals of what's possible and what's not. You just need to do some study and plenty of us here have done our fair share of that.

Here, while we consider all kinds of ideas and some seem way out there, what we don't do is go way out when it comes to what our planet is physically capable of. Simply put, there are limits to how big and how strong quakes can be, and those limits very much depend on location, the forces in play, and the seismic history of the region -- which can go back much, much further than the region's human history.


Finally, if the information in this thread gives some people a better understanding of what is possible, then that understanding could help to save lives -- perhaps even their own, or their loved ones.

Ultimately, that makes it all worthwhile.

Thank you for your post Mike, and this thread has become such a major piece of work, it's well worth a long read if you have the time. So much information here, and I've learned a lot even though my input is more instinctive than technical. Here's to another 5 years.

How is everyone feeling today? I have to say I feel like death, but I'm signing most of that off to house moving stress. I have terrible back and arm pain, almost daily panic attacks, and now IBS...yay.

Enough about me though. What I really wanted to report is a weird conversation I had with my mum two days ago. She and one of her sisters are both long time career nurses, over 50 years in mum's case, and they're not at all inclined towards woowoo stuff like I am. Both of them also have major problems with osteo-arthritis and have had multiple orthopedic surgeries for joint replacements. Anyway....out of the blue, Mum said that she had a long conversation with her sister about their pain management and pattern, and how they just can't work out what makes is worse or better. Sound familiar? Hmmm....well, her next comment astounded me. They had both come to the conclusion that it was "something in the atmosphere" that they were picking up on that made them sore in a seemingly random pattern, but the same pattern for them both. And this week it has matched mine...lots of pain on Thursday, none at all on Friday, weird pain locations on Saturday, Sunday was bad and today is off the chart. So is there really something we are all picking up on? Some people feel nothing. My boyfriend, thank god, has no inclination of this pattern at all, feels nothing, and isn't aware of anything unless I tell him.

I have a feeling that whatever this is that we might be sensitive to, it's not something we can hide from. We just have to learn to manage the effects on us. This might not even be the right thread for what we're feeling, and as you all know, pinning down a pattern is proving difficult. Then there is the whole HAARP issue. I'm loath to mention it, and don't know a vast amount about it, but the more time I spend at the farmhouse we will be living in, which is almost off grid but not quite, the worse I feel when I come back here. I'm rambling...I'm not sure where I'm going with this, but it feels like ma an her sis maybe be right. Is it HAARP, or microwaves, or cell phone signals, or wifi, or a combination, or some off planet event? Fireballs or solar flares? What the hell are we all feeling? Is the mother of all quakes brewing somewhere, a 10 pointer we don't have a clue about? Or are we all just crazy ladies with hyper sensitive nervous systems, who need painkillers and counselling? I really don't know. Help me please!!

So just over a week ago, (13th), I posted about all the lost dogs in our area.
There were no more after that until today. Only one has been found that I saw.
Some are still posting about searches that are ongoing.
Now today again there is a found dog, (not one of the reported missing ones),
& the mayor's dog ran away! This is getting hard to believe!

Dogs get out, have their run & come home when they get hungry!
None of them went missing from yards or fences,
or when the owners weren't looking, like they could have been stolen.
They all bolted or ran when they were with the owners or the door was opened!
That many in one weekend? It's never happened before!

And the fact that so many people are looking or keeping an eye out,
makes me wonder where they are! Only a brief sighting of one so far!
Only one small storm since this started happening.

There were a couple of small quakes in VA, (2.2 & 1.9),
the ones near Ontario, (4.4, 3.6 & 3.1) & a small one in NY.
We're in PA. Not too far from Ontario, but are they big enough to matter?
Or is something still in the works???
WOQ

Doing this in two posts so it's easier to read.
I had a big post all done, ready to post last week, & when I hit 'preview',
I lost that, but the original was still there.
I had just let out a 'whew', when that disappeared too!!!

Figured I'd redo it in the morning, but life has been getting in the way!!!
Anyhoo, hubby & I saw the specialist last week.
He's fine, nothing but allergies!?

I wasn't as lucky. He couldn't see anything wrong...so he wanted me to have a hearing test.
Said if nothing visible was wrong & the hearing test was good...it could be a tumor!
I thought I was going to have to schedule another appointment!
It took six weeks to get in for the first one!
But luckily, it was only a 20 minute wait! Probably got me in because it was the end of the day!

While I was waiting for the test, both ears started ringing! Louder & longer than usual!
Lasted the whole time I was taking the test! What are the odds???
I told her what was going on & asked how I would be able to hear the tones?
She said she would pulse them. Yeah, I still didn't do well!

They didn't have my first test because they only keep them for 10 years,
so no base line to go by! All the problems I'm having started after I was on an antibiotic.
Hearing loss is a side effect of one kind that I read. But he said not the one I took!
Said I have no nerve damage, mine's hereditary!!! It does run in my father's family!
But did I fail because of the ringing in my ears, or is it really that bad???
More questions than answers it seems!

Then on the way home we stopped for some groceries.
When I got out of the car, I got this huge shock! Hubby jumped it was so loud!
He said I sounded like a human bug zapper!!!
More shocks in the store from metal shelves & cans!
I knew things weren't looking good & then later we had the 7.0, now a 6.8!

We've been really tired, but there has been a string of them again,
but we've had a lot going on too! So how do we tell???
And some solar activity too. Wish there were EASY answers!!!
WOQ

reply to post by JustMike


Hi, Mike!

Well, finally a 6.5 off the coast of Chile!
But it still is unsettling how many good sized ones there are
on the west side of the ring of fire compared to the opposite side.

How does the west coast of the US avoid them?
It can't be that lucky forever!
WOQ

Okay guys...both of my dogs are acting REALLY weird right now....I mean, really weird.

Last time my poodle did this was when there was a big quake south of us, and the Japan quake. Is the big one about to pop up near Russia? Or maybe something closer...because my smaller dog is being odd too, and she usually only alerts to the close ones.

I dunno...but something is stirring.

Those of you that have been here awhile know what I am talking about.

reply to post by caitlinfae

Hi, Caitlinfae!

Your post got me to thinking!
Our daughter-in-law has had 4 or 5 orthopedic surgeries,
has migraines, can be very anxious & has all kinds of aches & pains.

They broke her one leg & reset it. They said it was crooked.
She had the whole, big, outside rod adjustment thingy!
Had cadaver tissue put in one knee.
And she had both her lower arms operated on for some problem with the nerves!

She walks, swims, canoes, gardens, but feels lousy a lot of the time!
They can't really find out what's wrong! She's too young for all that!
Chronic fatigue, fibromyalgia? They can't say for sure!

When you think about it, cell phones even work in basements!
Do they in elevators? Don't know, I never tried it!
But the signals have to be pretty powerful to go through concrete!
It sure can't be healthy!

They wanted to put a cell phone tower on my daughter & son-in-laws property.
They said, no way. Though the money was tempting, it wasn't worth the health risks!

When our oldest son was 2 he started with allergies.
About that time, there was a program on TV about an island off the coast of northern Australia.
It was completely free of anything modern, for people who had weird allergies to modern life!

I thought it would be a wonderful, healthy place! No plastics, polyester, chemicals, etc!
Just back to basics. I can't remember if they even had electricity.
That was almost 30 years ago. I have often wondered if it's still the same!

I think there is something to it. There are so many autoimmune diseases now.
Even a huge increase in asthma & allergies.
Not to mention how many people say they 'just don't feel right'!
And the memory problems & brain fog! In all age groups! Not just older people.

There definitely is something going on! If only someone could figure out what!
But I don't think it's any one thing, rather a series of complex interactions,
that we have no clue about yet! Unfortunately!

People who are more in tune & aware of what they are feeling & when,
are like the canaries in the mines! We pay attention so we see/make the connection.
Most people are too busy & harried to watch for patterns,
much less believe it could be the food, the modern conveniences, or the chemicals!

Besides that, how many people would be willing to give up all their 'stuff'?!
Even if they knew they would feel so much better?
How many times have I heard, "If it's so bad for you, they wouldn't make/sell it!"
Look how many people can't even give up their cigarettes & junk food!
Much less be willing to do without some of their modern technology!

We won't even go wireless, because we worry it might have more health risks!
I'm afraid it will take a SHTF scenario to change things the way they need to be changed!
Either that, or a solution that has the potential to make mega bucks for some corporation!!
WOQ

reply to post by westcoast


Hi, westcoast!
Wow, I haven't noticed anything yet today with the cats.
But we're on the east coast, so it may take a little longer to show up here!
Do you remember how far ahead your poodle did it before?
Will keep my eyes open!
Stay safe!!!
WOQ

reply to post by caitlinfae

Found this thread as I was looking up a members posts. I thought you might like to read. I can feel pins and needles when my Wifi is on,

It's short but it's has some links, ideas about testing the wifi.
Probably not a ton of help but something to look at.

Very, very deep quakes the last few days, eh? Usually after some big ones, things quiet down for a bit. However, I feel that this deep depth movement is loosening up the surface more, and that to the contrary, I think we are going to see a big surface event this weekend.

I've seen a lot of predictions about eq's on the Internet and here on ATS for this past week, mostly due to the solar activity that was over hyped a lot,, but not too much except for some minor watches for this weekend.

The last two nights I have had some spooky dreams that I don't want to get into, and about an hour ago (10am est), I started feeling all of my symptoms (ear ringing, pressure feeling, emotions). Ears are still ringing, but not too loudly.

It's building, but fairly quickly. So contrary to most stuff I've seen and read lately, I'm calling for a much more shallow depth, large eq in the next 72 hours. From my emotions, thoughts, and dreams, I also believe that it will be in an area that people are not overly expecting....feelings of fearful surprise.

Peace

reply to post by westcoast


You were spot on Westcoast. Awesome!



Peace

reply to post by lasertaglover

Hi!
I hope not, but I think you're right.
Hubby left work at 10 AM EST.
He was zapping the computer!

He couldn't even log on, there was a big flash on the screen!
They switched out the keyboard twice & it still kept happening.
Nobody else had a problem with it, just him!
Then an hour after he left work, there was the 6.8!

Something like that happened once before.
He was using some kind of expensive digital micrometer or something.
He couldn't get an accurate reading from it.
They got a different one & it still happened only to him!
He said they are starting to look at him like he's an alien or something!!!

What I can't figure out is why it didn't happen yesterday!
He did feel awful all day, but wasn't zapping things.
There was a lot more activity & bigger ones than today!

Oops! Maybe I shouldn't say that out loud, if you're still sensing something!!!
Figures, the whole family is going camping for the weekend!
We'll be coming back into town for granddaughter's graduation on Sun,
but then going right back out into the 'boonies'!

It's an area with no cell service, so if anything happens we'll probably miss it!!!
Let's hope we don't find out by really feeling it!
Do you have any inkling of an area?
WOQ

Hi everyone. It has been a while since I posted.

Lately I have only been having sunspot energy shifts( heart palps, ear ringing, energy spikes, etc), so I've just kept to myself.

However, about 5 minutes ago, I got a sensation I haven't had since Japan. It is a feeling of almost being swept backwards. An insistent dragging up and back. Like I said, I haven't had that feeling in a while, and thought I would write it down for posterity. It is accompanied by an all over weakness/fatigue, and a disorientation. Hard to type. Heck, hard to think.

ETA: Also, a slow, but steady increase in pressure on my right temple.

Love and light


ETA: Sick to my stomach. Starting to hyperventilate. Want to cry.

I just awoke from an EQ dream, which struck me as out of the ordinary because I haven't had any in quite a while. I've no idea the geographic details of the area I was in in the dream, but I know I was in a sports bar type of place with the hubby watching a hockey game and downing some brewskies. The TVs flashed over to a breaking news graphic, and announced a major earthquake centered under Cairo, Egypt with a preliminary magnitude of 9.3. The anchor made a point of saying other news agencies were reporting it was a 10+ mag, but that they were erroneous reports. I looked at hubby in the dream with a sense of dread, fairy sure that the city was rubble. A period of time seemed to have passed, and aftermath images were being aired. If Cairo & the pyramids were ever to turn to a shattered pile of dust, fire & unrecognizable debris, I'd image the dream was pretty spot on. It was absolutely horrific, so much so that when I woke up, I wasn't even groggy, I was in full alert & aware mode. Of course the USGS shows nothing going on to that scale anywhere globally, and I instinctively knew as much, but it's that little voice in the back of your head that occasionally yells "But what if!!"
It's also occurred to me that there are 2 Cairos in the US, I think one is in Illinois, and the other in Missouri? I also think the proximity of both is close to the New Madrid fault? I'm not sure offhand, I haven't checked yet.

reply to post by Nyiah


Wow that must have been quite disturbing for you to get up and post as well as check for reports. I understand disturbing and real dreams though, trust me. I just found this thread because of your post and cannot wait to read it ALL... I am extremely interested in earthquake prediction and wonder if the the only real way may be through animals and humans that are sensitive to them.
Bottom line is I live in the South where I am certain the Madrid fault is way overdue for some major activity. For the past couple years I've become suddenly so concerned and as a matter of fact found ATS doing research online when I stumbled across the Quakewatch thread.

reply to post by Nyiah


Damn, that's not good to wake up to. Let's hope it's not so accurate, if you don't mind me saying so... Neverthess, I've had a feeling something is brewing for a while, we all have, I guess. I've been trying to stay off the thread as I'm moving house and stressed out of my mind, so I can't tell what's real and what might be other stuff. It could just be my stress levels that are building up for a mag 10.

Anyway, the Cairo place name link is interesting and warrants further investigation as to alternative locations I think. I'm also thinking there are a few other places in the world with pyramid structures, like Las Vegas and Paris, so I'm wondering if that might be a clue, if you actually saw the pyramids themselves falling. But then I think there are maybe just a few places that a quake that big could occur. But then we haven't experienced a 10 anyway, so it could happen anywhere.....

Hmmmm...something is stirring.

I have no idea where or when or how big. My dogs are actually both sleeping right now, but I have a great amount of pressure in my head and have that crawling sensation along my scalp. A big one, with a lot of displacement.

reply to post by Nyiah


I know it's too far inland, but hey, if they are talking about mag 9.3+ - they'd feel it here wouldn't they?!

Cairo - Oregon

Originally posted by caitlinfae
reply to post by Nyiah

 

Anyway, the Cairo place name link is interesting and warrants further investigation as to alternative locations I think. I'm also thinking there are a few other places in the world with pyramid structures, like Las Vegas and Paris, so I'm wondering if that might be a clue, if you actually saw the pyramids themselves falling. But then I think there are maybe just a few places that a quake that big could occur. But then we haven't experienced a 10 anyway, so it could happen anywhere.....

No, I didn't see the pyramids or city crumble firsthand in the dream, it was aftermath stills on the screens. I've spent a good deal of time over the years drooling over aerial footage and pictures of the Cairo area, imaging what it was like during the times of the pharaohs. The aerial & street images in the dream matched up pretty much exactly with where some of the iconic views we have of Cairo & the surrounding really are. I don't recall noticing the sphinx or not, but the rubble of the pyramids was very clear, unmistakeable.

It's funny you mention Paris, France, because some time ago I did have a dream of a large 'quake in a northern town. I can't remember the name of the town anymore, but I posted about it in this thread somewhere. I think JustMike helped point out that very large earthquakes would not be possible there, so I'm inclined to say it's probably very unlikely to be in that area at all, if ever.

I'm open to the possibility that it's a muddled interpretation of a triangulated area. Sometimes when we dream, it's to problem-solve or dissect information. Maybe that's what was going on, a triangular area represented as pyramids? Perhaps my mind went with Cairo & Egypt because they may represent other places with the same names, or similar sounding names? I did find several towns in the US & Canada called Cairo, and a mountain in Italy called Monte Cairo with an earthquake history Monte Cairo. There is also a small town in Columbia called El Cairo. Interestingly, it was impacted by a 7.3 earthquake in 2012, as the page for the PAGER info shows on the city exposure list.
An alternative spelling of Kyros only told me that a Finnish town of Kyros was merged with another in 2005.
Another alternative spelling, Kairos, brought me to the Ancient Greek definition of the word.

I also found that Cairo's twinned/sister cities are:
Algiers, Algeria; Amman, Jordan; Amsterdam, Netherlands; Athens, Greece; Baghdad, Iraq; Beijing, China; Beirut, Lebanon; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Damascus, Syria; Isfahan, Iran; Istanbul, Turkey; Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Khartoum, Sudan; London, England; Lisbon, Portugal; Madrid, Spain; Miami, United States; Moscow, Russia; New York City, United States; Paris, France; Rabat, Morocco; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Seoul, South Korea; Stuttgart, Germany; Tunis, Tunisia; Tokyo, Japan; Toronto, Canada; and Karachi, Pakistan

Egypt is a harder one to search for. All I found was Egypt, Alabama.

Since the pyramids are in Giza, I thought I should try to look for places with that name as well, but I'm just getting business returns.

Originally posted by bkaust
reply to post by Nyiah

 

I know it's too far inland, but hey, if they are talking about mag 9.3+ - they'd feel it here wouldn't they?!

Cairo - Oregon

I looked at this one on Google Maps. I think it's possible they might feel something from a coastal event if it were that magnitude. It looks to be about 175 miles (thereabouts) from the ocean.