An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Morning all....just dropping in to say I feel like hell this morning. I haven't been this sore in months...all the usual stuff, joint and muscle pain, sore skin, very painful left ear and my jaw hurts, disturbed sleep, and I can't think that there is any domestic reason. My stress levels are up a little, but not this much. There was a 7 in Alaska on the 30th which caught my eye, and kinda set alarm bells ringing somehow.

Squirrel Update

Late yesterday afternoon 2 squirrels appeared in one of my trees . While one watched from approximately 6ft up, the other started down to the ground but he stopped 3 ft from the ground and ran back up the tree . After making his way to another taller tree he did the same thing at the 3ft mark and then disappeared .

In the evening I did see an older scraggly looking squirrel on the ground near one of my bird feeders that is very close to a tree. Either he figures he's so old and has nothing left to live for OR the danger has passed.

My little corner of the world is going bat-shat crazy the last few days!
Besides keeping one eye & ear on the news, unusual things are going on here too!

One of the worst car accidents to ever happen around here, happened on Saturday.
Two cars, one crossed into the other lane in the middle of the afternoon.
4 adults & 2 children killed. The four adults were from our little town & from the same family!

Yesterday afternoon, while on our way to daughter & s-in-law's house,
we stopped at our local market to buy a couple of things.
As hubby was getting back into our car,
an older lady pulled into the space beside us & 'clipped' him,
smooshing his leg into the edge of our open car door!
Lucky he didn't lose his leg! She didn't even know she had hit anything!
He's okay...his leg is banged up though!

Last night a man was killed here crossing the 5 lane highway after dark,
where I don't even think there is a cross walk!

Then night shift at a local factory last night,
a man came in & shot a woman that was working there.
Some kind of domestic situation...details still sketchy.

Plus a few other smaller things going on...
But things that are out of the ordinary in general, all happening in a couple of days!
Is there a disturbance in the 'force', or is it all a coincidence?
Sure holiday weekend...but still! Not typical stuff for around here!

My ears have been ringing off & on, which isn't unusual.
But the way they are ringing is.
Kind of like something is trying to get my attention!
An 'insistent' type ringing. I'm explaining it badly!

Last night the rescue cats were extra affectionate & clingy.
I noticed it last week too, not too long before the 7.0.
Actually pulled up the eq page this morning with one eye shut,
expecting to see a big one with all that's been going on around here!
Old cat & young cat not really doing anything out of the ordinary though. Yet!
They are sleeping more than usual though.

I just have this feeling like we are going to look back on this time,
as 'the good old days' before too long! A nagging feeling, but I don't know why!
I'm usually the most optimistic type person, but the last few days....

Hubby had one of 'those feelings' after we heard about the fatal accident.
He wanted to think it was just from the shock of hearing about it.
But it didn't go away! Then when he got clipped, he thought that was it.

But last night he was still feeling 'it'. Then we hear about the last two things.
So my question...are we just shook up?
Or has anything out of the ordinary or strange been happening to anyone else lately?

We had a very nice time with our family yesterday, but felt guilty too...
Because of all the tragedy affecting other people around here.
Just have this feeling like it's not over yet!
Waiting for the other shoe to drop!
Anyone else???
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Been having internet and computer problems the last month, but I feel you.

Fyi, a larger one, 6 something just went off the west coast of canada. Foreshock maybe? I feel something big coming any
day, in that area.

Peace my friends

reply to post by lasertaglover


Just woke from a nap to find a 6.2 in Canada...not good. I've been watching that cluster in the centre of the Pacific west of Alaska for a couple of days. I had a dream last night about massive earthquake upheavals and volcanoes, like whole chunks of land rising up at an angle.

2 more in the same place, just about...a 4.6 and a 5.1 in the last hour.

USGS map

reply to post by caitlinfae


Im glad to see aftershocks so quickly, id be really worried if the pressure stayed locked.

This area really has been in my thoughts for days now. Hope this just released some pressure....

Peace

Solar flares, geomagnetic stoms headaches and arthritic pain in sufferers. ?

reply to post by lasertaglover


We just got back from our grandson's cross country meet.
Felt a lot better, less antsy, thought it was from getting out in the fresh air.
Opened the door, walked in the house, heard the eq audio alert sounding!

Don't know if that's most of what we were feeling, but I do feel better.
Don't know why that one would have prompted such intense feelings!
See what we feel in a couple more hours!!!

Be safe everyone!
WOQ

Originally posted by lasertaglover
reply to post by caitlinfae

 

Im glad to see aftershocks so quickly, id be really worried if the pressure stayed locked.

This area really has been in my thoughts for days now. Hope this just released some pressure....

Peace

Although I just saw in the quakewatch thread the biggest was a 6.0 - and they just had a 5.9. Wouldn't that imply that that 6.0 is not really the main shock since there is a .1 difference between? Doesn't it need to be a whole 1 down for them to usually categorise it as the biggest in a sequence? It's a lot of steady 4's & 5's too making me a bit nervous!

Morning... Just up and am very sore this morning. There have been a few more big quakes on that spot just west of the Aleutian Islands that I've been watching for a few days. Hopefully it's just the pressure releasing and not something building. I've had a very odd headache for about a week that I've never had before, right in the middle of my head, behind my eyes. Usually I get it at work, and was thinking I need new glasses, but today, I've woken up with it. Weirdly when I looked at the USGS map a couple of days ago and saw the cluster of quakes west of Alaska, my first instinctive thought was that they were the source of my headache...right at the top in the middle, if you see what I mean. So now I'm worried that I have a headache so early in the morning.... I think that cluster is far from finished.

Edit to add...as I was typing this, there was another 6.1 in the same spot. And another. That's 5 quakes of 5 mag+ in the last 4 hours.

I've had horribly sucky sleep in the past few days. In the last 48 hours, I've managed about 6 hours of it total. I cannot get comfortable no matter what I do, and I can't stay asleep no matter what I take over-the-counter. If it's not just random irritating insomnia, it's almost like something's trying draw me to the Pacific and keep my attention there. And it certainly has been, but I'd also wager I could just be getting loopy from sleep deprivation.

As for physical feelings, I can't discount them as just symptoms of tired body, but I'll mention them anyway. Eyes feel so dry/tired, as if they're on fire. Muscles everywhere are sore, especially back & biceps. Tension/stress headache, especially around my forehead (like a big ol' rubber band there all the way around)

reply to post by Nyiah


That doesn't sound good at all...it could be sleep deprivation, right enough, but you also have to trust your instincts, and sometimes these are sharper when we're tired and less focused and rational, I think. I'm totally with you on the headache front. It's a weird one, right in the middle of my skull. The last quake in that spot has been upgraded to a 6.2 now. I keep thinking about that dream I had 2 nights ago where a whole section of coast tilted and slid into the ocean, I could see a volcano behind it, and oddly enough the land was a very dark purple colour, like it was all made of amethyst on the surface.

Have to tried lavender oil for the sleep issues? Just use a tiny bit though, in your bath or an oil burner. Too much and it becomes a stimulant. Hope you feel better soon.

Yay, I got six hours of deep sleep last night compared to the two to three hours I had the last three nights.

One high pitched ear ring last night, lasted about 30 seconds. Another one this morning, lower pitch, and lasted only ten seconds. Both times in my left ear and both times my left side was western directed, and im in the midwest.

Been feeling an odd vibration every couple of hours, but it is so quick that I cant pinpoint anything.

I got the kids off to school this morning and have the day off. Been outside since, and have had one squirell come up within a foot of me, and a dragonfly fly right around my head. Also had about five other squirrels come up within ten feet. Gorgeous, beautiful day here.

In some Native circles, the squirrel represents Gathering and preparing, while dragonfly represents illusion.

Some other people I know who are sensitive have also noticed a lot of angry tension amongst the people around them.

The ring of fire is shaking a bit, new one near Costa Rica just now, 6.0 so far, but we know that will change.

Iceland is quickening, Mid atlantic ridge, Alaska.

Hope this passes without badness.

Peace and love

bkaust
[snippied out the other quote to save space]
Although I just saw in the quakewatch thread the biggest was a 6.0 - and they just had a 5.9. Wouldn't that imply that that 6.0 is not really the main shock since there is a .1 difference between? Doesn't it need to be a whole 1 down for them to usually categorise it as the biggest in a sequence? It's a lot of steady 4's & 5's too making me a bit nervous!

Hi BK,

first off, congrats on the pregnancy! Hope it all goes great!

Now to your query. I guess you're referring to main shocks versus aftershocks. Generally speaking, with larger events (like 7.0-plus MWs and especially when they're over 8.0), the rule of thumb is that aftershocks can be up to around one full mag less than the main shock. True, if there's a mag 5 you can often expect a few mag 4s to follow, but as they're relatively small events they're not a huge concern. It's the powerful aftershocks that follow big events that are the worry, as they can be quite damaging on their own.

To put it another way, if following shocks are one mag or less than the main event and are within a reasonable distance of the main shock's epicenter (based on rupture length of the main shock event), then they're normally classified as aftershocks.

However, with quakes like the Canadian ones in the past few days, that doesn't have to apply. We could say that the 5.9 was not actually an aftershock of the 6.0, but was still consequential to it. However, some might still call it an aftershock, even though it doesn't really fit the technical definition.

Now, let's say a mag 7-something (or bigger) happens within that same region in the near future. In that case, the mag 6.0 and the 5.9 were foreshocks, in the same way that the mag 7-range quake off Japan a few days before their big one in March 2011 was identified as a foreshock -- but only after the huge quake happened, of course. Until that terrible moment, the mag 7 event was thought to be a main shock and in fact, most scientists were surprised by the bigger one that followed.

In short, it's generally impossible to say if a quake is a foreshock or a main shock right after it occurs. It's what happens or doesn't happen after that allows us to identify them that way. The only exception is with very large quakes in the high mag 8-plus range (ie, including mag nines). If we get eg a mag 8.8, we had better hope it's a main shock and not a foreshock of something much bigger!

About all the 4s and 5s. These are pretty normal following such a shallow event in the mag 6 range. I'd actually be more worried if they didn't happen, because in that scenario, we'd have indications of a stuck fault that jarred loose, then stuck fast again. But as they're popping off like they are, it means things moved and now they're slowly settling again.

Gotta love these 20+ hour days when your eyes pop open and thoughts come poring in. Sleep, why cant we be friends?

Anyway, still got those feelings. I thought the recent bigger 6 point in Guatemala would relieve the pressure, but nope. Ear ringing about once an hour, mostly left ear.

More importantly, at least to me anyway, is that twice today one of my three kids here, my 6 and 14 year old, both also heard it when I did. Not at the same time, as they werent in the same room at those times.

My little guy was playing on the Ipad, when he looked at me and asked what that buzzing sound was. My teen and I were in the garden a little bit later.

With all the six's around the Ring, I think this could be a big one.

This weekend? Really hope not.

Peace

All these 6's are wiping me out!
I woke up 15 minutes before the 6.0 in the Philippines.
I figured as soon as I looked at the time, that there must have been another one!
I don't know what time I finally fell asleep last night,
but I shouldn't have been waking up that early!

I was sooo tired suddenly before 8 tonight, that I went up to bed.
Just came back down, so tired but couldn't sleep!
Saw the 6.6 in Guatemala at 8:13!

Ears have been ringing a lot too!
I don't get a direction though, it's all inside my head!

Now I'm really tired again, but is it from not being able to sleep...
Or is there another one in the works??? Aaaahhh!!!!
WOQ

JustMike

bkaust
[snippied out the other quote to save space]
Although I just saw in the quakewatch thread the biggest was a 6.0 - and they just had a 5.9. Wouldn't that imply that that 6.0 is not really the main shock since there is a .1 difference between? Doesn't it need to be a whole 1 down for them to usually categorise it as the biggest in a sequence? It's a lot of steady 4's & 5's too making me a bit nervous!

Hi BK,

first off, congrats on the pregnancy! Hope it all goes great!

Now to your query. I guess you're referring to main shocks versus aftershocks. Generally speaking, with larger events (like 7.0-plus MWs and especially when they're over 8.0), the rule of thumb is that aftershocks can be up to around one full mag less than the main shock. True, if there's a mag 5 you can often expect a few mag 4s to follow, but as they're relatively small events they're not a huge concern. It's the powerful aftershocks that follow big events that are the worry, as they can be quite damaging on their own.

To put it another way, if following shocks are one mag or less than the main event and are within a reasonable distance of the main shock's epicenter (based on rupture length of the main shock event), then they're normally classified as aftershocks.

However, with quakes like the Canadian ones in the past few days, that doesn't have to apply. We could say that the 5.9 was not actually an aftershock of the 6.0, but was still consequential to it. However, some might still call it an aftershock, even though it doesn't really fit the technical definition.

Now, let's say a mag 7-something (or bigger) happens within that same region in the near future. In that case, the mag 6.0 and the 5.9 were foreshocks, in the same way that the mag 7-range quake off Japan a few days before their big one in March 2011 was identified as a foreshock -- but only after the huge quake happened, of course. Until that terrible moment, the mag 7 event was thought to be a main shock and in fact, most scientists were surprised by the bigger one that followed.

In short, it's generally impossible to say if a quake is a foreshock or a main shock right after it occurs. It's what happens or doesn't happen after that allows us to identify them that way. The only exception is with very large quakes in the high mag 8-plus range (ie, including mag nines). If we get eg a mag 8.8, we had better hope it's a main shock and not a foreshock of something much bigger!

About all the 4s and 5s. These are pretty normal following such a shallow event in the mag 6 range. I'd actually be more worried if they didn't happen, because in that scenario, we'd have indications of a stuck fault that jarred loose, then stuck fast again. But as they're popping off like they are, it means things moved and now they're slowly settling again.

Thanks Mike!! & thanks for the in depth response, I think I'll just refer to this next time, because I get scrambed with it all pretty easy - I'd blame it on baby brain, but I've always been that way

Aaaaaagggghhhhh!!! I just lost my whole post 'cause I clicked on a mistake
in the preview paragraph instead of the original one! Aaaaaggghhhh!
Why doesn't ATS fix stuff like that instead of changing stuff that works!

Anyway...just checking in to see if anyone else is picking up on anything?

Hubby has been really out of sorts the last couple of days!
He finally said today that he feels 'it' really strongly,
worse than he's ever felt it before. But he does worry easily.

But instead of trying to figure out what 'it' is, he tries to block it.
He thinks if he doesn't, than it's his fault when something happens.
He did say that today too, 'I'm trying to fight it, but I don't know if I'm strong enough!'

I told him people don't cause 'things' by thinking about them!
Or there would be a lot of bad shat happening to some people!
It would be scary having those feelings, but I'd want to know how to tell them apart,
so I didn't worry more!

He just came in & took a couple of aspirin. He doesn't do that for little aches & pains.
He said I'm fine, I can take care of myself! Sooo not like him!

It could be a full seizure coming on, an eq, a solar flare, a death in the family...anything!
I sure wish he'd analyze the feelings more! It's like riding a roller coaster!

Young cat was under the desk & sticking close earlier, but not now.
I was feeling it during the string of 6's last week, today my ears are ringing some.
I'm feeling a build up of energy like I want to spring house clean all at once,
or do some 'nesting'! It might be from the negative vibes hubby is giving off though!!!

And I really don't like the new format...and the new icons are BORING!!!
Yeeep! I think I might be wearing my cranky pants today too!!!
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Aw...you're not having a good time...hope you feel better soon. I wasn't going to post but I guess I should record what I'm feeling, just in case. I'm very anxious, in a lot of pain, like I haven't been since maybe May or June, and my sleep has been all to hell the last 2 nights. Can't get comfortable, woke up last night suddenly absolutely convinced that someone had knocked on the front door...or course there was no one, and the dog slumbered on. I've been trying to put all this down to mother issues...she's making my life hell just now...but just in case it's not that, here I am. I also have my Alaska headache back today, which is worrying. I had it consistently through that string of sixes and a seven last week. It's not as bad, but kinda getting worse.

Very odd thing....my dog was as clingy as I've ever seen him last night. He's quite a sensitive little soul, and easily spooked by loud noises, despite his breed...he's a Staffie...but last night before dinner, he was practically sitting on our feet, and hiding under the dining table, which he never does...it totally freaked me out. He had that kind of frightened look that he gets if he hears shotguns (we live right in hunting country, so it's not that unusual to hear gunshot). He's fine this morning though...full of beans and wanting 2 or 3 breakfasts.