Well, here we go red lines crossed Biden gives the go ahead to use long range missiles

So, are these long-range missiles already in Ukraine?

a reply to: Ravenwatcher

Have been for about a year, I think.

a reply to: CarlLaFong

You miss my point. But never mind.

I saw this and it seems germane to the topic...if true.

What if Russia can no longer produce enough tank and artillery barrels?

Wouldn't that mean regardless of Putin's posturing and threats It's all bluster if he is just going to have to resort to missile barrages, that do NOT hold territory.

Hell, it sounds as if Russia is finding it difficult to find defense workers as well as obviously replace troops.

Im trying to find more info to see if the figures are verifiable.

How long can Russia produce what it needs to wage war? and secondly what if now Europe and the UK are so engaged they can now hold the line with less American support?

Would that put the thumb screws to the war hawks in the Kremlin? After all not only has Russia enflamed Ukraine but now Europe and the UK have increased its funding for military defense and military exports

Thus we are seeing Putin get all blustery and threatening but besides the missile and taboo nuclear threat, the general public should realize Russia can not sustain the burn rate on its various essential war-making stockpiles.

Putin could simply be trying to grab and hold territory and hope to have a more advantageous position to negotiate from. What if all it takes is security assurances backed by the US and no NATO for Ukraine for 20 years, Russia returns Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia territory they are struggling to hold as it is. but keeps Crimea for now.

What if that is the bare minimum negotiated guarantee Ukraine needs? would that be enough or do we need economic penalties too?

www.thelowdownblog.com...

Russia is losing around 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month and producing only 20. The Russian engineering industry lacks the skills to build rotary forges; in fact, the world market is dominated by a single Austrian company, GFM. Russia is unlikely to acquire more forges and increase its production rate, and neither North Korea nor Iran have significant stockpiles of suitable replacement barrels. Only a decision by China to provide barrels from its own stockpiles could stave off Russia’s barrel crisis.

To resupply its forces, Russia has been stripping tank and artillery barrels from the vast stockpiles it inherited from the Soviet Union. But these stockpiles have withered since the start of the war. Combining current rates of battlefield loss, recycling from stockpiles, and production, Russia looks set to run out of cannon barrels some time in 2025.

Russia is consuming other weapons, too, at rates far faster than its ability to produce them. Open-source researchers have counted the loss of at least 4,955 infantry fighting vehicles since the war’s onset, which comes out to an average of 155 per month. Russian defense contractors can produce an estimated 200 per year, or about 17 per month, to offset these losses. Likewise, even Russia’s expanded production of 3 million artillery shells per year pales in comparison to the various estimates for current consumption at the front. While those estimates are lower than the 12 million rounds Russian forces fired in 2022, they are much higher than what Russian industry can produce.

Can Europe hold the line and help Ukraine resist the Russian onslaught?

www.fpri.org...

Few in Moscow or Washington believe that Europe can hold the line and help Ukraine resist the Russian onslaught without US assistance. Yet this view may be mistaken.
European countries demonstrated impressive resilience in withstanding Russia’s energy blackmail last winter. Building on this success, an emboldened, determined Europe could enable Ukraine to resist, even as the US government remains paralyzed.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered Europe’s sense of security in a way that it has not for the United States. So, just as America’s resolve has diminished steadily over the last two years, Europe’s has only increased.
When it comes to supporting Ukraine, the European Union has taken a decisive lead over the United States. On February 1, Brussels passed a massive, four-year, 50 billion euro (roughly $53.7 billion) package of aid to Ukraine. At the same time, a proposed $60 billion aid package to Kyiv remains blocked in Congress due to opposition from House Republicans. Absent a political deal on Capitol Hill, Europe may be on its own in backing Ukraine for the foreseeable future.

Which begs the question: Can Europe hold the line and help Ukraine resist the Russian onslaught?

Few in Moscow and Washington believe that Europe can do so without US assistance. Russian leaders and Western realists dismiss European defense capabilities and view the war as a great-power conflict between the United States and Russia. Yet European countries demonstrated impressive resilience in withstanding Russia’s energy blackmail last winter. Building on this success, an emboldened, determined Europe could help Ukraine to resist, while the US government remains paralyzed.

Hold on:

BBC News - www.bbc.co.uk...
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russia vows response if Ukraine uses US long-range missiles to hit its territory - BBC News

"The US will reportedly allow Ukraine to use the missiles to hold onto the small chunk of Russian territory it occupies in Kursk, reportingly making the decision after the Kremlin allowed North Korean troops to fight there"

So. Pretty limited then?

WW3 might not happen after all.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

The subtleties of diplomacy and the subterfuge and duplicity of politics are skills I'm sadly lacking in.
I know my strengths and am all too familiar with my many weaknesses.

a reply to: Freeborn

I'd be no great loss to the Diplomatic Service, myself.

As for politics, I lack the necessary skills required.

Which, as far as I can determine, are being a lying, self serving bell end.

a reply to: YouSir

If you say so.

Dont change the facts of the matter and thats Russia is the real enemy.

Not Joe Biden, not Ukraine but Russia.

If in doubt well see the invasion of Ukraine.

As to something in the mist, hopefully, an ATACMS come down on their heads.

a reply to: CarlLaFong

More than one nuclear power on the field through this time around.

And they have made what happens next plain to Mad Vlad should he decide to chuck one out the pram.

How do you imagine Putin nuking Ukraine would end the conflict?

If anything its only going to escalate the situation.

a reply to: andy06shake

Now, that would be one Hell of an escalation!

And one big test for Trump.

And Starmer.

Well, the latter.... he's not up to big tests.

He'd probably refer it to the CPS.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

LoL

Let's hope cooler heads prevail.

And pray for a modicum of sanity would be my thinking there.

To be honest i don't think any of them are up to big tests.

Just to add perspective.



It's not like the new ordinance rules and gloves coming off mean they can strike the likes of Moscow or St Petersburg.

a reply to: andy06shake

How about Saratov?

Asking for a friend.....

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Saratov is apparently situated about 280 miles from Ukraine's front lines or thereabouts.

So the standard ATACMS would not reach it.

But the long-range variants might.

Dont think Ukraine is equipped with the longer-range variants through.

a reply to: andy06shake

Interesting. I didn't know the ATACMS had more range than Storm Shadows.

But, they are air launched?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: andy06shake

Now, that would be one Hell of an escalation!

And one big test for Trump.

And Starmer.

Well, the latter.... he's not up to big tests.

He'd probably refer it to the CPS.

Tell Starmer that Russia posted something offensive.

a reply to: DBCowboy

Technically threatening 67.7 million people with nuclear annihilation is rather offensive.

But i dont think the demented Dalek in question is taking my calls right now.

a reply to: DBCowboy

Brilliant! That'll learn em.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Storm Shadows are air-launched yes.

ATACMS is typically launched from the M270 and HIMARS units, shoot and scoot type scenario.

a reply to: andy06shake

I think he's reported mine to the CPS.

a reply to: andy06shake

Ah. So, Saratov.....?