Betting markets have Trump by a good bit

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Why weren’t you saying they were manipulated when there was a much larger disparity vs the polls?

I’m saying it’s manipulated now because there is a much larger disparity vs the polls.
Currently, the polls keep shifting more to Trump yet the betting markets are going the opposite way.
I’m calling it out for what it is.
The numbers speak for themselves.
There is no confirmation bias on my end.

Others here are ignoring the fact that the polls and the betting markets are going opposite directions and saying that the betting market shift is due to ‘Harris momentum”. 😆
This fact shows their confirmation bias, does it not?
It’s quite silly.

a reply to: Vermilion

The delta on the polls since this thread was created is less than 1%.

The delta on the betting is double digits, but still favor Trump.

The betting is like a market, if a stock goes up or down too fast, people often swing in to “correct” it, whether they’re right or wrong.

The bettors could be wrong, we don’t know yet.

Sports betting lines often take a small swing right before closing. Sometimes it’s right, and when it is they call it sharp bettors. Sometimes they’re wrong, and people call it dumb money. That is always determined in hindsight.

But you’re claiming this is rigged, without any evidence, even though the odds still favor Trump more than the polls. Yet you didn’t call it rigged when it was going in his favor by double digits over the polls. Curious.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

But you’re claiming this is rigged, without any evidence, even though the odds still favor Trump more than the polls. Yet you didn’t call it rigged when it was going in his favor by double digits over the polls. Curious.

Manipulated is a better word.
The past few weeks Trump continues to poll upward.
The betting markets similarly show better odds for Trump.

Now, all of a sudden, with Trump continuing to poll upwards, the betting markets start going the opposite way.
Lefties claim it’s Harris momentum yet the polls show the opposite.
The only explanation why an easily manipulated offshore betting platform would be showing the opposite reality is that it is being manipulated.

I’m sorry if these facts are contrary to the confirmation bias by some in this thread, but don’t shoot the messenger.

a reply to: Vermilion

I noted on page one I think Trump is in the lead. The odds still reflect that.

His polls haven’t changed by more than a percent since the start of this thread. I haven’t indicated I was ever upset by him being in the lead, because I’m not.

My point still stands. You weren’t claiming the odds were manipulated when they had a large disparity with the polls, and were moving faster than the polls.

Not now you’re claiming it’s manipulation.

The only evidence you have is that he’s gained less than a percent lead since the start of this thread. But by that logic, we could say the odds were manipulated in his favor a few weeks ago, and they’re just now correcting.

I don’t think that’s the case, just showing you the flip side. I’ve been involved with bettor markers, stocks and crypto for years. Sometimes people with the money are smart and see things the masses don’t. Sometimes they’re wrong.

I think these markets are a good tool, but not the end all be all. I’ve maintained I trust the betting odds more than polls, and I’ve said that for many elections on this site. He’s still in the lead on polymarket.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

My point still stands. You weren’t claiming the odds were manipulated when they had a large disparity with the polls, and were moving faster than the polls.

This is the last time I’m going to explain this to you because I don’t have any more time for obtuse or worthless troll.

I wasn’t claiming manipulation when the betting markets were trending in the same direction as the polls.
Why?
Common sense dictates that they will trend in the same directions.
Betting markets are secondary and a direct result of the current polls.
People use them to pick winners and losers.

I’m only claiming manipulation NOW because the betting markets are going the opposite way as the polls.
Just because the betting markets still favor Trump means nothing.
You’re paying attention to the actual numbers instead of the direction they are heading.
The betting markets are dropping yet Trump continues to poll better.

If you think manipulation of the betting markets isn’t the reason they are trending opposite of the rising polls, now is your time to tell us.

a reply to: Vermilion

If you think manipulation of the betting markets isn’t the reason they are trending opposite of the rising polls, now is your time to tell us.

I’m humble enough to say I don’t know. Polymarket has the highest trade volume, and right now is over 3b in contracts. It’s crypto, so hard to say where the bets are coming from. There are other entities who have bets or futures contracts though, and they’ve been going in the same direction. Some have know your customer rules in place.

There’s an adage I heard that I find fitting about polls vs betting. People poll who they want to win, people bet who they think will win.

Again, polls and betting odds are often wrong. They’re tools, nothing more. Most people can’t predict elections, and you only hear about how obvious the outcome was once we know it.

a reply to: Vermilion

If you think manipulation of the betting markets isn’t the reason they are trending opposite of the rising polls, now is your time to tell us.

I’m humble enough to say I don’t know. Polymarket has the highest trade volume, and right now is over 3b in contracts. It’s crypto, so hard to say where the bets are coming from. There are other entities who have bets or futures contracts though, and they’ve been going in the same direction. Some have know your customer rules in place.

There’s an adage I heard that I find fitting about polls vs betting. People poll who they want to win, people bet who they think will win.

Again, polls and betting odds are often wrong. They’re tools, nothing more. Most people can’t predict elections, and you only hear about how obvious the outcome was once we know it.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

I’m humble enough to say I don’t know.

Fair enough.

It’s interesting that you're discounting betting market manipulation so close to Election Day.
Each day closer to it comes more rotten shenanigans by the democrats and the media.
Suppression polls (like that laughable Iowa farce)
Free airtime for the democrat nominees (SNL)
Closing polling locations in red heavy districts (Pennsylvania)
Illegally opening polling locations in blue heavy districts (Georgia)

Is it unlikely they tried to manipulate an easily manipulated offshore betting platform?
Is it also a coincidence that the CEO of polymarket was at a Walz fundraiser on Monday?
Is that a bridge too far?

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: Vermilion

If you think manipulation of the betting markets isn’t the reason they are trending opposite of the rising polls, now is your time to tell us.

I’m humble enough to say I don’t know. Polymarket has the highest trade volume, and right now is over 3b in contracts. It’s crypto, so hard to say where the bets are coming from. There are other entities who have bets or futures contracts though, and they’ve been going in the same direction. Some have know your customer rules in place.

There’s an adage I heard that I find fitting about polls vs betting. People poll who they want to win, people bet who they think will win.

Again, polls and betting odds are often wrong. They’re tools, nothing more. Most people can’t predict elections, and you only hear about how obvious the outcome was once we know it.

I'll tell you what happened.
It's been a 50/50 race all along - which mean Harris wins because they have a fraud operation that will cover them for anything but a 20+ point Trump blowout.
People who know for sure Harris is going to win tipped the market in order to make huge money by getting Trump supporters to bet huge money on him and get carried away with the trend.
They are now in the process of buying Harris to win at great odds and cashing in.
Insiders do exactly the same thing in the stock market.

You can even tell now it's getting close that Trump knows he's lost - his tweets seem desperate and unconfident, totally out of character.

The betting markets are not really about what people think will happen - not for those who win over the long term
It's a pure odds game.
If you think Trump will lose, but the odds are good, you still take the bet....and vice versa.
Like in Poker - your odds of winning on the river might be 5 to 1 against, but if you stand to win more than 5 times your stake, you take the bet.

Gambling is not about what you think will happen, it's about playing the odds and looking for returns bigger than the risk you are taking.

originally posted by: Vermilion
a reply to: CriticalStinker

I’m humble enough to say I don’t know.

Fair enough.

It’s interesting that you're discounting betting market manipulation so close to Election Day.
Each day closer to it comes more rotten shenanigans by the democrats and the media.
Suppression polls (like that laughable Iowa farce)
Free airtime for the democrat nominees (SNL)
Closing polling locations in red heavy districts (Pennsylvania)
Illegally opening polling locations in blue heavy districts (Georgia)

Is it unlikely they tried to manipulate an easily manipulated offshore betting platform?
Is it also a coincidence that the CEO of polymarket was at a Walz fundraiser on Monday?
Is that a bridge too far?

Hmm

Have you erver conidered that the actual manipulation was of Trump voters - getting them to pile in money on a fake trend by whipping up his chances of winning and then cashing in on great odds for Harris?

a reply to: Vermilion

Trump gainied the lead on polymarket (51%) on October 6th, and the odds went up to a 34pt disparity within weeks.

On 10/30 Trump was at 67% to Kamala’s 33%, a drastic difference from the polls.

To me it seems just as possible people saw the disparity and saw that as mispriced odds. Keep in mind anyone in the world can bet on this and don’t care who is president.

Also keep in mind these are futures contracts, not a bet with a traditional casino. People who had Trump when he didn’t have the lead could cash out at the top and lock in profits if they aren’t confident he wins.

We’ll all know sometime this week.

But personally I think any manipulation to shift the odds is no more harmful than his own base saying it’s all rigged. That’s what helped him lose in 2020. He said the mail in ballots were going to get cheated, and there likely were older voters who didn’t get the mail ins or go to the polls because in their eyes, Trump said it was already rigged. He explicitly told people not to use mail in ballots.

That’s just all my perspective as someone who dislikes both parties, and barely favors Trump over Harris. I’m not a fan of either, and my life will go on just the same no matter what happens. I’ve never bought into either sides rhetoric when they lose about cheating, foreign influence, fake birth certificates. I simply see it as sore losing.

a reply to: UKTruth

I'll tell you what happened. It's been a 50/50 race all along - which mean Harris wins because they have a fraud operation that will cover them for anything but a 20+ point Trump blowout. People who know for sure Harris is going to win tipped the market in order to make huge money by getting Trump supporters to bet huge money on him and get carried away with the trend.

If so many people are in on it, than it shouldn’t be hard to find a pleather of evidence.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: Vermilion

Again, polls and betting odds are often wrong. They’re tools, nothing more. Most people can’t predict elections, and you only hear about how obvious the outcome was once we know it.

Hence why I think the trend is a better indicator in close races, for polls and especially the betting market.

The trend was heavily favoring Trump almost all of October, I was almost ready to go so far and predict Trump win, however that trend came to an abrupt end this past week, now that momentum is favoring Harris.

Despite being way off in terns of odds/percentage to win Trump had a favorable trend the week before the election, at one point gaining 15 points in less than a week. That trend ended the weekend before the election when the all the news stations started covering the election and made their predictions, which of course heavily favored Hillary...

The fellow whom thinks the betting odds must be rigged because Trump's odds are falling, probably does not understand how the odds truly work. Also their is littke incentive for someone to waste money trying change the odds, his theory of big bets is also not validated by any of the data as many sites will show this. I think you nailed it by calling out his confirmation bias, and now is looking for a reason why Trump's odds are falling.

Trump's odds decline coincide with the Madison Square Garden where the Puerto Rico being a trash island was made. This not only outraged the Boricua voters, Cubans as well, and likely many other Latin American voters.

If Trump loses, all he has to do is look down and see all the bullet holes in his feet for an explanation.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: UKTruth

I'll tell you what happened. It's been a 50/50 race all along - which mean Harris wins because they have a fraud operation that will cover them for anything but a 20+ point Trump blowout. People who know for sure Harris is going to win tipped the market in order to make huge money by getting Trump supporters to bet huge money on him and get carried away with the trend.

If so many people are in on it, than it shouldn’t be hard to find a pleather of evidence.

In on what?
This is simply market dynamics - drive the price lower so you can benefit from buying when there is blood in the water.
It's the age old way of catching suckers in a betting market.

Trump was never way ahead in reality.
Have you heard him today? Broken man seems close to throwing the towel in.

a reply to: UKTruth

I voted for Trump. I could never vote for Harris.

a reply to: UKTruth

Broken man seems close to throwing the towel in.

Come on man, that's bullsh!t.

originally posted by: RazorV66
a reply to: UKTruth

Broken man seems close to throwing the towel in.

Come on man, that's bullsh!t.

Did you hear him today?
Talked about cheating and how everyone else in his campaign was afraid to say it because they might be put in jail.
Talked about a future fix after this election and that he will no longer be around to fight.

a reply to: UKTruth

Doesn't matter. Anyone who's voting has already made up their mind.

People lie to pollsters, I know I do.

originally posted by: DBCowboy
a reply to: UKTruth

Doesn't matter. Anyone who's voting has already made up their mind.

People lie to pollsters, I know I do.

I agree with this, but the language and tone of Trump has sunk today.
He knows something.
He needs to do a runner at this point, because in 3 weeks or so he's getting sentenced to jail for the rest of his life.
He's going to end up like McAfee unless he goes and gets some asylum in some other country.

a reply to: UKTruth

I mean if enough people knew it was going to be rigged, so they tipped the odds to start getting people to bet Trump.

But alas, one of the tipping points was a tweet from Musk pointing out Trump just took the lead on polymarket. The tweet was on 10/06, and the odds flew after that. I think that had more to do with it than a few people betting in a multibillion dollar contract pool.