Betting markets have Trump by a good bit

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: UKTruth
Trump is cratering in the betting odds.

What's "cratering" and where did you look? I just looked at the ones RCP tracks. I think they only update them once a day, so I went to the individual sites to look at the live odds.

BetOnline has him at 64-39, +25.
Betfair: 63-37 +26
Betsson: 64-40 +24
Bovada: 63-41 +22
Bwin: 65-40 +25
Points Bet: 65-40 +25
Polymarket: 61-39 +22
Smarkets: 60-40 +20

Most of them haven't really moved, with the exception of Polymarket, which has gotten a little tighter. The closest one still has him up by 20%.

Polymarket - down from 67 to 61
Kamala up from 33 to 39

Yeah so one market like I said. Looking at the history this week, it was fairly steady until yesterday when it the gap suddenly closed, but then it went back to just about as wide as it was before. Now it's closing up again. We'll see if it continues tightening up this time.

I think thats the point - the fluctuations have nothing to do with who's going to vote for which candidate or even who's going to bother voting. It's just betting on value - overbought and oversold conditions.

That was what I was getting at as well.

As of right now, Trump is back up to 63.7% and Harris is back down to 36.2%.

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: UKTruth
Trump is cratering in the betting odds.

What's "cratering" and where did you look? I just looked at the ones RCP tracks. I think they only update them once a day, so I went to the individual sites to look at the live odds.

BetOnline has him at 64-39, +25.
Betfair: 63-37 +26
Betsson: 64-40 +24
Bovada: 63-41 +22
Bwin: 65-40 +25
Points Bet: 65-40 +25
Polymarket: 61-39 +22
Smarkets: 60-40 +20

Most of them haven't really moved, with the exception of Polymarket, which has gotten a little tighter. The closest one still has him up by 20%.

Polymarket - down from 67 to 61
Kamala up from 33 to 39

Yeah so one market like I said. Looking at the history this week, it was fairly steady until yesterday when it the gap suddenly closed, but then it went back to just about as wide as it was before. Now it's closing up again. We'll see if it continues tightening up this time.

I think thats the point - the fluctuations have nothing to do with who's going to vote for which candidate or even who's going to bother voting. It's just betting on value - overbought and oversold conditions.

That was what I was getting at as well.

As of right now, Trump is back up to 63.7% and Harris is back down to 36.2%.

I think the race generally is tightening.
Trump falling in the polls and now RCP averages show the no toss up map falling from 312 ec votes to Trump down to 287.

I think Trumps stupidity in allowing that comedian to tell his racist jokes at the Madison Square Garden rally has had an impact. One of the dumbest acts of self harm in a campaign i ever heard of. Proves again that Trump does not have the judgement to be President. Simply too naive and doesn’t think through our check enough of what’s being done around him.

a reply to: UKTruth

Where did the comedian's joke hurt Trump? I'm not seeing it?

In fact, I saw Puerto Ricans parading in unity with Trump, after the comment.

Where are you people getting your news?

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: UKTruth
Trump is cratering in the betting odds.

What's "cratering" and where did you look? I just looked at the ones RCP tracks. I think they only update them once a day, so I went to the individual sites to look at the live odds.

BetOnline has him at 64-39, +25.
Betfair: 63-37 +26
Betsson: 64-40 +24
Bovada: 63-41 +22
Bwin: 65-40 +25
Points Bet: 65-40 +25
Polymarket: 61-39 +22
Smarkets: 60-40 +20

Most of them haven't really moved, with the exception of Polymarket, which has gotten a little tighter. The closest one still has him up by 20%.

Polymarket - down from 67 to 61
Kamala up from 33 to 39

Yeah so one market like I said. Looking at the history this week, it was fairly steady until yesterday when it the gap suddenly closed, but then it went back to just about as wide as it was before. Now it's closing up again. We'll see if it continues tightening up this time.

I think thats the point - the fluctuations have nothing to do with who's going to vote for which candidate or even who's going to bother voting. It's just betting on value - overbought and oversold conditions.

That was what I was getting at as well.

As of right now, Trump is back up to 63.7% and Harris is back down to 36.2%.

I think the race generally is tightening.
Trump falling in the polls and now RCP averages show the no toss up map falling from 312 ec votes to Trump down to 287.

Looking at that in more detail, I'm not sure you can read much into it. The only reason he had 312 was because they had him up 0.1-0.3 in Michigan and Wisconsin. If you're barely ahead, you get the state on the no-toss ups map.

Now they have Harris up 0.3 in Michigan and Wisconsin, so those 2 states went to her column, which brought him down to 287 on the no toss ups map. 0.6 is just barely becoming a significant swing, and a lot of that is driven by 1 or 2 obviously bull# polls, like this one in Wisconsin:

The +2 might be accurate but that +6 is obviously flawed but it drags the average left. Without it, the RCP average would be very close to tied in Wisconsin. Harris is looking better to win Michigan than Wisconsin, though I still think she'll get all 3 of the northern swing states, which will seal the deal for her as long as she gets that 1 electoral vote in Omaha.

The polls will start swinging left so when they "find" enough votes for her to win, they can say it was what the polls predicted.

With all the offensive things Trump has said over the years, I don't see a joke by someone else is swinging the polls like this. They're moving so the pre-baked result doesn't look anomalous.

Who is going to vote for this?

“We are here because we are fighting for a democracy,” the vice president obliquely declared as nobody said it was at risk. “Fighting for a democracy. “And understand the difference here, understand the difference here, moving forward, moving forward, understand the difference here,” Harris continued as the heckler voices and their message was drowned out.

“What we are looking at is a difference in this election – let’s move forward and see where we are because on the issue, for example, freedom of choice …” the Democratic nominee continued as the heckling caused her to pause and lose track yet again.

Same words over and over and over....

a reply to: UKTruth

Link

Former President Donald Trump received a full-throated endorsement from Puerto Rico’s Republican shadow senator on Tuesday as he distanced himself from the comedian who made a controversial joke about the island during his weekend event at Madison Square Garden.

“I strongly and fully support and endorse Donald J. Trump to be our 47th president — to make America great again and, of course, to make Puerto Rico shine again,” Zoraida Buxó informed the former president’s supporters during a rally in Pennsylvania.

Trump, 78, later brought Buxó back on stage during his remarks in the key swing state. “We need this man back in the White House,” the shadow senator said. “We need this man to be our commander-in-chief. He will make us feel safe, and he will protect us.”

originally posted by: matafuchs
Who is going to vote for this?

“We are here because we are fighting for a democracy,” the vice president obliquely declared as nobody said it was at risk. “Fighting for a democracy. “And understand the difference here, understand the difference here, moving forward, moving forward, understand the difference here,” Harris continued as the heckler voices and their message was drowned out.

“What we are looking at is a difference in this election – let’s move forward and see where we are because on the issue, for example, freedom of choice …” the Democratic nominee continued as the heckling caused her to pause and lose track yet again.

Same words over and over and over....

Unfortunately, a lot of people.

On Polymarket it has tightened up even more, closer than 60-40.
Live right now it's 59.8% to 40.3%.

Word is out that the fix is in.

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain
On Polymarket it has tightened up even more, closer than 60-40.
Live right now it's 59.8% to 40.3%.

Word is out that the fix is in.

Interesting little tidbit about Polymarket…

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at a Harris campaign fundraiser in NYC on Monday.

They look very chummy in their photo…

x.com...

UPDATE: As of October 30, 2024

287 Electoral College Votes for TRUMP-VANCE

251 Electoral College Votes for HARRIS-WALZ

270 E.C. Votes Needed to WIN the Presidency.

SOURCE: www.realclearpolling.com...

As you can see, Michigan and Wisconsin have flipped back and forth between Trump and Harris at least twice during October. RAZOR CLOSE RACE in those two states.

a reply to: WeMustCare

May God have mercy on our country.

20 point swing in 1 day in Harris favour.

Betting markets are manipulated.
People with money will bet in the opposite direction to what they they think to catch suckers. These suckers drive the price in a direction.
Then, bam, the people manipulating will sweep up at a great price. They managed to drive Harris down to 33% , or 2/1 odds and are now putting their money in.

a reply to: WeMustCare

Not sure why Real Clear Politics is still giving Pennsylvania to Trump. Most indicators show Harris now ahead there.

Without Pennsylvania it will be 270 to 268 Harris..

That said we will likely not have a declared winner until Pennsylvania announced their results. That could take days

originally posted by: SourGrapes
a reply to: UKTruth

Where did the comedian's joke hurt Trump? I'm not seeing it?

In fact, I saw Puerto Ricans parading in unity with Trump, after the comment.

Where are you people getting your news?

It didn't. That's just gonna be the narrative for why the polls swung back Harris's direction at the last minute and were "correct" on election day when the cheating puts her over the top.

It's preposterous to think that swung the election, but the Democrat media can sell it to the unthinking.

a reply to: YourFaceAgain

Polls and betting are predictive tools, and often wrong.

The left complained that 2016 must have been cheating since the polls and betting odds favored her by so much.

If someone has an 80% chance of winning, they have a 1 in 5 chance of losing. Sometimes the underdog team wins.

But alas, the polls have been close for a while.

The other part is Trump very well could win. We haven’t had the election yet. If there is 5% variance in polls, that could be the amount of undecided voters.

Just sound weird a side is claiming they’re getting cheated before the game even happens.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: YourFaceAgain

Polls and betting are predictive tools

Thank Christ you're here to tell us these things...

originally posted by: CriticalStinker


Just sound weird a side is claiming they’re getting cheated before the game even happens.

It's hard to imagine that those who feel they were cheated in 2020, would be concerned about the same thing happening, when the left is running a poor candidate. I guess folks are just crazy. Blind trust is what we really need now. That will unite us all.

a reply to: network dude

They’re both running poor candidates.

I’m not alone in that opinion.

I realize Trump has one of the most enthusiastic bases, but it’s not a majority.

One thing to think about in PA is liberals have a huge turnout with mail-in ballots that are at least 2 to 1. The request is also 2 to 1. They blew the Republicans out of the water with mail-ins in 2020, like a million+ more, and Biden only won by 80k votes.

This time we are seeing, what? Less than half of the mail-ins from the liberal that they had in 2020? My point is that the Republicans were down well over a million votes come Nov 5 and only lost by 80k. If they are down let's say 500k by Nov 5 what do you all see as the end result?

On a side note, I think more liberals are just not voting this cycle because of how Harris was put in power and how bad she is while conservatives are a lot more energized in 2024 than in 2020.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: network dude

They’re both running poor candidates.

I’m not alone in that opinion.

I realize Trump has one of the most enthusiastic bases, but it’s not a majority.

I get the opinion thing, but Trump faced the entire GOP crowd, and came out on top. So somewhere along the line, a few folks seemed to like his policies.

Not sure if you were looking back then, but not long ago, Harris was considered a drag on Biden's ticket and there was talk of replacing here due to that reason. Since that time, she has accomplished nothing new, but is now the greatest candidate the left has ever run. The Biden/Harris economy is in the sh!tter, and the only thing most seem to remember about Trump, is his economy was making folks money. With all that being fact, it becomes increasingly difficult to understand why anyone would want more of what we have now.

But I suspect that whomever runs in 2028, will also be Hitleresque on the GOP side. Trump is a by-product of the division, not the cause of it. Desantis will be the devil soon enough.