Betting markets have Trump by a good bit

gazette.com...

Trump jumped to a 9.2% advantage on Thursday, with bettors giving him a 53.9% chance to win and Harris a 44.7% chance. Harris’s largest lead among bettors this cycle has been 8.8%, a figure Trump briefly overcame until his Sept. 10 presidential debate performance tanked his odds for nearly a month.

this is the polls that matter. Where people are willing to put their money. Harris appears to be flailing and sinking in her popularity that was manufactured by the MSM. Apparently the turd polish they used was out of date.

Not only is Trump surging in the betting markets, but he is also leading in six of the seven key battleground states, including Pennsylvania by 0.1%, North Carolina by 0.5%, Georgia by 0.5%, Michigan by 0.9%, Arizona by 1%, and Nevada by 0.2%.

Maybe folks have had enough of this grand experiment. Who would have thought that open borders and not prosecuting crimes would not be a popular movement. The pendulum seems to be swinging in the other direction.

a reply to: network dude

People think if Trump wins, everything is going to suddenly be sunshine and rainbows, but that's when it going to get rough. The Democrats will do what they did last time and block everything Republicans put out. There's only so much he can do by Executive Order and Liberal states/cities will defy it and challenge all of it in court.

ANTIFA and BLM will suddenly become very active again [ notice how quiet they've been since the Democrats took over the White House ? ] and the Democrat Mayors and Governors will do little to stop them, but blame it all on Trump.

If Harris wins, we're done. We can't stand another 4 years of Liberal policies.

If Trump wins, Democrats go on a rampage and try to undermine everything he does.

This is going to be an uphill battle no matter what.

a reply to: DAVID64

Of course.

Despite the denials and the lies, Antifa and BLM are the violent wings of the democrat party, like the SA and SS were for the Nazis

Betting markets are flawed as much as polls are.

Consider this - a person voting Democrat, if they think Trump is going to win, will place their bet on Trump. but they will STILL vote Democrats.
This is why Hillary Clinton as WAY ahead in the betting markets in 2016, because Trump voters were not going to throw their money away - they thought Clinton would win.

We won't know much until election day.

What we DO know is that Democrats are going to commit massive election fraud again - so Trump has to be miles clear to win the Presidency.

originally posted by: DAVID64
a reply to: network dude

People think if Trump wins, everything is going to suddenly be sunshine and rainbows, but that's when it going to get rough. The Democrats will do what they did last time and block everything Republicans put out. There's only so much he can do by Executive Order and Liberal states/cities will defy it and challenge all of it in court.

ANTIFA and BLM will suddenly become very active again [ notice how quiet they've been since the Democrats took over the White House ? ] and the Democrat Mayors and Governors will do little to stop them, but blame it all on Trump.

If Harris wins, we're done. We can't stand another 4 years of Liberal policies.

If Trump wins, Democrats go on a rampage and try to undermine everything he does.

This is going to be an uphill battle no matter what.

it will, but we have some recent history on our side. The wall is now a good thing. remember? And the massive promotion of the oil leases Biden OK'd means that there should be ZERO push back on those issues, and they are two of the big ones. Sure the idiot left will change their minds, just as they would if they won, but at least we have the receipts on that.


adding receipts for future reference
www.energyindepth.org...

Recent claims suggesting that the Biden administration has granted 50 percent more oil and gas drilling permits on federal land compared to the Trump administration have been circulating in the media – and while that data is accurate, it’s a lot more complex. A closer look at the 2023 data reveals that many of the permits approved by the Biden administration were granted on land that was leased during the Trump administration. The Biden administration, on the other hand, has held the absolute minimum lease sales possible.

www.axios.com...
www.cnn.com...

Vice President Kamala Harris likes to portray herself as tough on the border and immigration.

Recent TV ads highlight her time as a “border state prosecutor” who aggressively targeted criminal cartels and drug smugglers, as well as her support for “the toughest border security bill in decades.”

That bill, which failed in the Senate in February and again in May, included $650 million for new border wall construction. Images of the border wall built during the Trump administration are featured in the Harris ads, yet Harris repeatedly criticized the wall over the years, describing it as an affront to both hers and America’s values.

originally posted by: DAVID64
a reply to: network dude

People think if Trump wins, everything is going to suddenly be sunshine and rainbows, but that's when it going to get rough. The Democrats will do what they did last time and block everything Republicans put out. There's only so much he can do by Executive Order and Liberal states/cities will defy it and challenge all of it in court.

ANTIFA and BLM will suddenly become very active again [ notice how quiet they've been since the Democrats took over the White House ? ] and the Democrat Mayors and Governors will do little to stop them, but blame it all on Trump.

If Harris wins, we're done. We can't stand another 4 years of Liberal policies.

If Trump wins, Democrats go on a rampage and try to undermine everything he does.

This is going to be an uphill battle no matter what.

Everyone knows that to get anywhere, you have to take the first step. I don't think anyone believes when Trump waves his hand in the beginning after becoming POTUS, it will be rainbows and Twinkies. But just like Biden and Harris on the first day of their term put a stop to around a hundred or more Trump EO's and actions that had made our country safer, better and more affordable, Trump can reverse a lot of their authority that has made this country a bad place to be in so many areas. Even the blue states will see relief. Of course, that's after the violent and crazy left have their 'peaceful protests' and demolish their cities once again. But I think even they are looking for a breath of air from the current crazy running this country.

As far as the betting games, Biden was the clear choice in 2020 which I can't recall being aware of but I'm sure it must have been on ATS and I didn't get it. But, I hope with all my heart that Trump wins the election and is the 47th President. I think he'll be a little tougher and ignore the Left's incessant legal attacks on every move he makes. Having Pelosi out will help but we'll see.

a reply to: UKTruth

I think Trump is in the lead, and the betting markets reflect that.

Keep in mind, the election is won by swing voters. Trump is a known quantity, and Kamala is not.

Now, Trump not being a known quantity helped him in 16’, but that’s because he ran on a platform of flipping the script. She has done very little to present a platform. It wasn’t there for a month, and then once it was presented, it was incredibly vague, and sort of adopted the Obama “hope and change”. That’s problematic considering she was part of this admin and is also implying we need change. It just doesn’t seem genuine, logical, or coherent.

I think the notion of voter fraud can only hurt Trump, like it did in 20’.

Set aside your belief on whether or not there was legitimate fraud, and consider this. There was COVID, and while it was exaggerated on how serious it was for the nation as a whole, it was still serious for certain vulnerable groups. I don’t think it’s any secret, the older the demographic you look at, the more there is support of Trump. He implicitly told people not to do mail in ballots because they were rigged. I think that probably kept certain people from voting since they weren’t going to go to the polls at that time.

I’m not sure if that was enough for him to win. But the point is, there are two things you never do in a campaign. Tell your voters the win is in the bag, because then they might not show. Or tell them the other team is going to rig it, because then they might not have hope.

At the end of the day fundamentals play a big part. Sell your platform, especially if the other side doesn’t.

originally posted by: network dude

Not only is Trump surging in the betting markets, but he is also leading in six of the seven key battleground states, including Pennsylvania by 0.1%, North Carolina by 0.5%, Georgia by 0.5%, Michigan by 0.9%, Arizona by 1%, and Nevada by 0.2%.

It's been said that Liberals are more likely to answer polls than Conservatives who want to be private due to how Liberals freak out. Even when the polls are 3%+ in favor of their Liberal candidate they are still down. Biden/Hillary was +10% at times in some states and barely won, for example.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker


I think Trump is in the lead, and the betting markets reflect that.

Keep in mind, the election is won by swing voters. Trump is a known quantity, and Kamala is not.

Before Harris did a string of interviews, she was +5 points, and each interview saw her drop 2+ points, so she went from like 52 to 47, she did the interviews and she crashed, and Trump gained like 6 points. lol

Nothing secret anymore...It's all out there to see!!!! You vote because you hate Trump or Tired of the high
prices and crime and mass migrants invasion......

a reply to: network dude

Harris/Walz have to climb up out of a deep hole.

This will crown the victor: www.realclearpolling.com...

First to 270 wins.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: CriticalStinker


I think Trump is in the lead, and the betting markets reflect that.

Keep in mind, the election is won by swing voters. Trump is a known quantity, and Kamala is not.

Before Harris did a string of interviews, she was +5 points, and each interview saw her drop 2+ points, so she went from like 52 to 47, she did the interviews and she crashed, and Trump gained like 6 points. lol

Harris was trying to do like Senate candidate John Fetterman, but couldn't hold out. Before his disastrous debate with OZ and NBC interview, 75% of Pennsylvanians had already mailed or drop-boxed their ballots. His handlers delayed those until late October 2022.

Ya'll are overly optimistic if you ask me. There's been many more Democrats than Republicans early voting in most of the swing states. They're building up a lead ahead of time with harvested and mailed ballots that god knows who signed.

October Surprise dropping today on Timmy.

Story about Tim Walz and accusations of a sex scandal
while he was an assistant coach.

www.msn.com... r

www.ibtimes.sg...

I would imagine Trump betting odds will increase today.

Betting markets have much better statistical foundation than polls.

Betting lines cover both sides of a bet to better distribute the odds and risk, and to also make sure the bettor makes money no matter what the outcome. The true odds become exposed as a result, and is not only what the bettor wants to happen, but a better probability of what WILL happen.

Cash is King, and always will be.

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain
Ya'll are overly optimistic if you ask me. There's been many more Democrats than Republicans early voting in most of the swing states. They're building up a lead ahead of time with harvested and mailed ballots that god knows who signed.

I agree
The operation to rig the election in 2020 was extremely well organised and it's only going to be better this year.
There is a reason millions of illegal immigrants were both encouraged to come and then let in and given IDs.
There is no real election on Nov 5th.

Sorry, I simply STILL don't believe these polls. I honestly feel like come November 6th, Kamala Harris will be named President Elect.

I ALSO believe that it is ridiculous to call this race anything NEAR 50/50 or even 44.7/53.9. As I said in an earlier OP and many posts, I feel like they simply HAVE to act like it is a close race so when Kamala wins, they can say, "oh well, we knew it would be a close one but (whatever) pushed her slightly into the lead!"

I believe that the REAL numbers are somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 Kamala and 70 Trump. Like Joe Biden and his winning votes which somehow climbed above the total number of voters in the whole country, and like the for certain red wave two years later which just happened to turn into a blue wave, going against all the polls and defying explanation, I think Kamala Harris will again be the most supported person in the history of American politics and I think the news stations will make a big deal about calling out election deniers and people, like last time, will be too afraid to say the obvious, that the Democrats cheat in basically all elections as if it means your life if you do speak up so it will be ignored for a few weeks and it will simply be accepted that Kamala is president when she has NOWHERE NEAR the support to pull it off.

Millions at Trump rallies and at hers, about 5000 people, 4300 of which we know carry the same cell phones to each meaning we are talking about the same people accounting for 4300 of them says Metadata collected at each rally. So maybe 700 people for Kamala vs Trumps millions and yet we are supposed to buy that the race is oh so close lol

a reply to: AlexandrosOMegas

I believe that the REAL numbers are somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 Kamala and 70 Trump

I’m sure most people who mostly expose themselves to like minded people and internet echo chambers are confident their party has 70% support.

But a lot of people don’t like Trump. Because the media told them to hate him, because they think he’s abrasive, or because he was a mediocre president.

He certainly seems to be in the lead. But I think 70% is highly concentrated hopium.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Wait until you see what’s currently cooking with Walz.
Disgusting allegations incoming.
Everyone can follow along here.
The info is dropping now…

x.com...

originally posted by: Vermilion
a reply to: CriticalStinker

Wait until you see what’s currently cooking with Walz.
Disgusting allegations incoming.
Everyone can follow along here.
The info is dropping now…

x.com...

I do not believe anyone who draws out evidence like that poster is doing.
He wants engagement on his twitter account.
He's treating the 'story' as a TV script , dropping cliff hangers.
I blocked him.