Betting markets have Trump by a good bit

originally posted by: CriticalStinker

They’re both running poor candidates.

I’m not alone in that opinion.

I realize Trump has one of the most enthusiastic bases, but it’s not a majority.

Why do you say Trump is a poor candidate? Is it because the left hates him? I feel they hate him because he beat Hilary and took that away from them. Add on that they thought she had a 90+ chance to win and the whole situation is a deep scar that can never heal. Everyone needs to remember that Trump is a 90s Democrat, and not too far in the past, they LOVED him.

If Trump gets 10% of what he wants to do actually done, he will be a great President.

a reply to: network dude

Biden was just as bad of a candidate as Harris.

And while Trump has one of the most devoted bases in modern American history, he also has the inverse. A lot of people truly hate him, many because he’s “mean”, others because they disagree with his platform.

I didn’t know a single full fledged Biden supporter, but I’m not necessarily surprised Trump lost considering how polarizing of a figure he is.

If you truly like someone, I’m sure it’s always baffling that someone else can’t see what you see.

At the end of the day, it’s a popularity contest, and Trump is abrasive. We could talk about how shallow some Americans are for voting on vibe… but it is what it is.

I’ve said it many times, I’d begrudgingly rather have Trump win. In my eyes it’s two horrible candidates. But I can see that there are a lot of people in this country who would literally vote for anybody but him.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

who would have been a good candidate in your eyes?

a reply to: Xtrozero

I voted for him and against Hillary, so I was happy at the time.

But I’ve always been mostly a single issue voter on the economy.

Even pre COVID the debt was rising at the same rate as it was under Obama.

Policies can make a short term economic boom. That doesn’t mean it’s good long term. Our reaction to COVID directly correlates to inflation, and Trump had just as much of an impact as Biden.

You can look up the M2 money supply, and it almost directly correlates with inflation. A good part of that supply was done under Trump.

I just don’t see the genius in cutting taxes before spending. We spent 13% of our federal budget on interest in 2024. The nation literally gets nothing for that, it’s money out the window because of poor management.

There’s going to be a time in my life that number is at least a fifth of our budget. So while I may get a small tax break of a few percent, a fifth of my money is literally interest.

That’s not a tax break, that’s a loan.

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: CriticalStinker

who would have been a good candidate in your eyes?

On the left, no one. On the right, Ron DeSantis looked great until he started leaning too heavily on culture war issues. Unfortunately, I don’t think he has the political wisdom yet.

But ultimately, the only candidate I’ve ever been truly enthusiastic of was Ron Paul.

That said, it doesn’t matter too much who I truly like, I’ll never get it. Even if a Ron Paul got office, they’d get blocked by the republicans and democrats. If the average amount of eligible voters that turn up to a federal election is just over 50%, and most of that number just gets their information from the news. There’s not a chance in the world the country suddenly takes it upon themselves to learn about the mechanisms of an economy, and vote for things that may not pay out immediately when they vote.

People are willing to take money they have now and invest, knowing it will have a large impact down the road. But we don’t do that with elections. People vote on what they want now.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

This is about the odds of someone making a flush in poker(when holding 4 suited cards) with one card to go.

Everyone who has played some poker has called an opponents semi-bluff on the turn where the opponent has only a flush draw....only for them to hit the flush. Experienced players don't even call it a bad beat.

Keep in mind, this time in 2020 Biden was near 60%, in 2016 Hillary was at around 80%...it is interesting to note that 2 weeks before the 2016 election, Trump was at 15% and moved up to around 23%...but fell below 15% again the right before election day.

My point is there was an indicator about a week before that Trump was gaining momentum...my guess is that indicator was drowned out by the media's portrayal that Hillary was way ahead when they started covering the election and showing their projections which was all Hillary.

originally posted by: Xtrozero
If Trump gets 10% of what he wants to do actually done, he will be a great President.

even if he gets 0 done he does the country a service by keeping Kamala and company out.

Lord only knows what Hillary and her people would have done if she'd gotten in.

a reply to: jrod

I agree with that assessment.

I think the big difference now is they’re both known quantities. That wasn’t the case in 16’. That’s what makes this so close.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

When the DNC 'selected' Biden in 2020 as their candidate I thought they had given up and expected to him to lose to Trump....then the COVID shutdowns started happening shortly after Super Tuesday.

Almost no one voted for Biden in 2020, they voted against Trump.

a reply to: jrod

Almost no one voted for Biden in 2020, they voted against Trump.

For sure, and while many imply that is foolish, spiteful, or shooting oneself in the foot… that’s how Trump won 16’.

In race to the bottom politics, elections aren’t won on who’s good, but who the country thinks is worse.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: Xtrozero

I voted for him and against Hillary, so I was happy at the time.

But I’ve always been mostly a single issue voter on the economy.

Even pre COVID the debt was rising at the same rate as it was under Obama.

Policies can make a short term economic boom. That doesn’t mean it’s good long term. Our reaction to COVID directly correlates to inflation, and Trump had just as much of an impact as Biden.

You can look up the M2 money supply, and it almost directly correlates with inflation. A good part of that supply was done under Trump.

I just don’t see the genius in cutting taxes before spending. We spent 13% of our federal budget on interest in 2024. The nation literally gets nothing for that, it’s money out the window because of poor management.

There’s going to be a time in my life that number is at least a fifth of our budget. So while I may get a small tax break of a few percent, a fifth of my money is literally interest.

That’s not a tax break, that’s a loan.

Covid was an unknown variable to all of us, and I suspect to Trump as well. The idea of shutting down the world economy was totally new, and I can't imagine the fallout if he just ignored everything, and kept us going, like we now know we should have. But the debt was not ballooning under Trump until that happened. Your opinion on that has been stated numerous times, so there is no need to rehash that, but if he gets in, we will all get to see if his ideas will dig us out of this mess. As Harris can't say she would do anything different, other than giving more money away, which will only increase the recession, if she gets in, things won't change, just slowly erode away.

a reply to: network dude

We don’t give Obama a pass for 08’ even though it wasn’t his fault. We (including I) judge him for the response.

And debt was increasing under Trump at a similar rate of Obama pre COVID. This gets rehashed because it’s relevant during an election.

This is part of the reason he won in 16’, the rally calls were about inflating debt under Obama. Yet it’s a moot point on the right, you don’t hear it talked about anymore.

In 16’, he ran on decreasing or eliminating the debt. The only part of his platform that touches on this now is Elon and his possible position.

If I could place a bet that debt will increase under a second term of his, I’d move almost all my crypto, and stock money to that bet. Almost a sure thing. They very well may cut a few hundred billion from federal spending. But I imagine his tax cuts will negate that.

If you make less money at a job, you have to decrease your budget. If you use a credit card, you’re going to have to pay interest. It’s a simple concept lost on every modern politician.

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originally posted by: CriticalStinker

That’s not a tax break, that’s a loan.

Trump was doing well on the spending until COVID hit. 2020 almost doubled his other 3 years.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: CriticalStinker

That’s not a tax break, that’s a loan.

Trump was doing well on the spending until COVID hit. 2020 almost doubled his other 3 years.

How was he doing well accruing debt at a comparable rate as Obama pre COVID?

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Prepare to be enthusiastic once again…


Elon: Would be great to have Ron Paul as part of the Department of Government Efficiency!

Ron Paul: I'd be happy to talk with you about it, Elon.

x.com...

originally posted by: lilzazz
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Think Trump is limping towards the line.
He looks and sounds tired and out of energy.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: lilzazz
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Think Trump is limping towards the line.
He looks and sounds tired and out of energy.

What about those polls leads you to think that?

originally posted by: CriticalStinker

How was he doing well accruing debt at a comparable rate as Obama pre COVID?

That is your only metric?

originally posted by: UKTruth

He looks and sounds tired and out of energy.

Lol, how would you know?