The Dunning-Kruger effect and ATS

Hello ATS!

I wanted to philosophize again. And the topic will not be applied, but purely practical. But first, a little theory.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is one of the types of cognitive distortion, in which a person with an insignificant level of knowledge overestimates his capabilities in a certain area, makes incorrect conclusions, and then, quite naturally, makes erroneous decisions based on them and commits rash actions. A person who finds himself under the influence of the Dunning-Kruger effect loses the ability to perceive himself critically, cannot soberly assess the level of his knowledge and competence, while also losing the ability to admit the mistakes he made even to himself.

Over time, this worldview takes on the character of psychological defense: a limited person begins to defend his vision of the situation precisely because he feels that if he even admits the thought that he is wrong, he will be pushed aside by more talented people.

Talented educated people, on the contrary, understand perfectly well how complex the laws of reality are and how vast the opportunities for gaining new knowledge are. This leads to an underestimation of their own abilities, to an underestimation of their place in society. "I know that I know nothing," repeated Socrates, who led a more than modest life and was constantly attacked by fools who were sure of their own rightness.

The effect was theoretically predicted and then experimentally confirmed in 1999 by employees of the Department of Psychology at Cornell University (USA) David Dunning and Justin Kruger.

The practical source of inspiration was a funny story with a bank robbery. The attention of scientists was attracted by the amazing case of the robber Wheeler, who robbed two banks one after another, having smeared his face with lemon juice before doing so. The fact is that he sincerely believed that lemon juice prevents the face from being displayed on surveillance camera recordings. Psychologists were amazed at the depth of incompetence of a person who did not even try to check the accuracy of his own idea, although the error threatened serious problems.

Dunning and Kruger gathered people in one room, working in different fields, but having very different levels of real knowledge, and asked them to fill out a questionnaire. Participants were required to indicate the level of competence in the field where they worked. Then they were asked to take a series of tests that allowed them to establish the true level of their competence. Based on the results, the authors of the study made a graph that displayed the dependence of real knowledge on people's confidence in their knowledge of their field.

The graph resembled a parabola. In its left part, where the least competent participants in the experiments were presented, it reached its peak - 100% confidence in their own knowledge. Then it fell sharply - the overwhelming majority of people who were quite knowledgeable in their profession had an extremely low opinion of their experience and skills. Closer to the end, the curve rose again - here were the best of the best, true experts in their field. These people could not help but understand that they understood it much better than most other specialists. At the same time, the confidence of real experts was on average 30% lower than the confidence of incompetent participants.

As Dunning and Kruger found, incompetent people not only overestimated their knowledge, but were also unable to adequately assess specialists who have a truly high level of qualification in the same field. They sincerely did not believe that they had made mistakes in tests related to their professional activities. Most remained with their opinion even after they were shown their mistakes and logically substantiated their wrongness.

The theory put forward by Dunning and Kruger is actively studied by scientists all over the world, and one of the subjects of the research is the causes of this phenomenon. These include:

- Low level of intelligence;
- Improper upbringing (for example, parents often overly extol even minor successes of their child, which kills all the inclinations of the child's emerging critical thinking);
-Lack of knowledge or very modest practical experience in any field;
-Excessive ambition and self-confidence, painfully inflated self-esteem.

A striking distinctive feature of the Dunning-Kruger effect is the inability of a person who has become its victim to realistically assess his abilities and capabilities in a particular area. At the same time, an individual subject to this phenomenon is quite sensible, realistic and critical of himself, as well as his knowledge and skills in other areas.

The Dunning-Kruger effect has a significant impact on all areas of our life, since people are constantly faced with the need to acquire new knowledge, whether it is the structure of a car or improving their own skills. For this reason, it is worth remembering the described phenomenon both when you have to evaluate the work of an amateur in a certain area, and when you yourself are immersed in an area little known to you.

On the one hand, you do not need to console yourself with the thought that anyone except you can become a victim of this effect - even the most competent person in any area should update their own knowledge from time to time. The antidote to this effect will be a critical attitude towards yourself, and the habit of constantly questioning your own knowledge and skills, while updating and replenishing them.

And now a small practical part. Pay attention to my any thread on ATC. You will immediately see a small group of ATC members, mainly British, who constantly hate me, consider themselves absolute experts in any topic, any that I publish. And I publish topics on a very wide range of human knowledge. But they are absolute experts in everything. Moreover, they use exclusively sources from Western media (and we all know the level of their bias), but I am constantly accused of propaganda.
Well, God be with them. I am not offended, because I am extremely sober and critical about the level of my knowledge and beliefs based on them.
By the way, everything is according to the Dunning-Kruger Effect.))))

Thank you.

a reply to: RussianTroll

That was interesting.

Until you started with your British bashing.

I certainly don't hate you, you are amusing.

A perfect description of Putin.

originally posted by: schuyler2
A perfect description of Putin.

Do you personally know Putin and know him better than any of us?
Are you Putin's agent?
Where are the CIA, FBI and MI6 looking?)))

a reply to: RussianTroll

Do you personally know any of the Brits on here? Who you have just insulted, once again?

Pot, kettle.

It's an interesting phenomenon.

An example of this might be someone who makes makes claims on a web site but lacks the critical skills to establish the difference between fact and propaganda.


So as a random example someone who claims a large number of senior NATO officers have been killed in Ukraine. But, because they lack actual knowledge or critical thinking, when asked for proof they just link to the first things they find, even when it turns out to be mocking the claim and is actually a list of high ranking Russian officers killed in Ukraine.

Now someone not suffering from this effect might find that embarrassing, but as you point out in your OP.

Dunning-Kruger effect loses the ability to perceive himself critically, cannot soberly assess the level of his knowledge and competence, while also losing the ability to admit the mistakes he made even to himself.

a reply to: BedevereTheWise

A textbook example.

The Dunning, is stunning.

Perhaps the OP assumed, wrongly, as it happens, that D-K was new to other ATS members?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: BedevereTheWise

A textbook example.

The Dunning, is stunning.

Perhaps the OP assumed, wrongly, as it happens, that D-K was new to other ATS members?

This site relies on it.

after the way the brots treated turning, i'm not suprised by rt's choice of words.

took how long for a commemorative coin?

/s

a reply to: BedevereTheWise

Doesn't it just!

The OP is quite ironic, really.

Talk about being hoist by his own petard!

a reply to: BedevereTheWise

An example of this might be someone who makes makes claims on a web site but lacks the critical skills to establish the difference between fact and propaganda.

Just a perfect sentence right there and I'd also have to say RT personifies the Dunning-Kruger effect perfectly and lacks any skill to adequately research facts and instead settle for his force fed propaganda. You can tell this from the off topic rants that are posted after the OP's lies are pointed out derailing his threads and then abandonment of the thread intirely.

a reply to: RussianTroll

Interesting post.

I have a couple issues with published "effects" such as Dunning-Kruger (and others). This is not a reflection on your OP, but rather an observation about some other 'effects' which never get a name and repeatedly go unnoticed. Again, no fault of yours, but rather just a natural reality. And, the frustrating part is, it is studies like these which make these other 'effects' go unnoticed. Allow me to clarify...

Dunning-Kruger draw the conclusion that incompetent people can become blindly over-confident, and wholly competent people can underestimate their abilities. Okay, no argument. However, at the same time, what these findings obscure is how some of these people rise to the level where their incompetence is even an issue. Dunning-Kruger is a human personality phenomenon, but what it overlooks is a systemic phenomenon and flaw. Governments are a great example of this (yours and mine both, among many others). People rise within an organization not based on what they are, but who they are, and this is an invitation for Dunning-Kruger like effects to have negative consequence. Eliminate the systemic problem and the Dunning-Kruger never becomes an issue.

How many times have we seen people who are wholly unqualified for important governmental positions get appointed to these positions based on 'who' they are, not what qualifications they have? We see it all the time. Worse, as the role becomes more important, up to and including management, making policy and foreign relations, incompetent people can create disastrous situations with wide ranging consequence. We see it frequently in the US government, and you see it frequently in Russian government. These people have egos which have been inflated by their title, so naturally they develop the Dunning-Kruger type personality responses.

I can't speak for others here on ATS and how / when Dunning-Kruger may affect them, but I thought your OP interesting for the Dunning-Kruger discussion just in general. Thus my comments in this reply.

a reply to: RussianTroll

Excellent thread. I'd never heard of this effect before. It describes my sister-in-law perfectly, who confidently gives people directions, and they're always wrong.

a reply to: RussianTroll
The way the media and internet presents us with "news" facilitates the D-K effect in populations.
Conflicting narratives,misinformation to fit political agendas,social media designed to be echo chambers..
It muddies the waters or minds of those who are constantly bombarded.

Add to that befuddlement-screens with flicker rates which adjust brainwaves into more hypotic states and all the nonsense is more deeply absorbed.

Its not something which only affects the west though RT
All countries with electricity do it.
All governments I mean.

a reply to: RussianTroll

I'm aware of this Dunning Kruger thing having had it said about me. Thing is, that particular chap had a first class honours in pyschology and perfectly capable of manipulating, gas lighting and all of the other things associated with pyschologic practices. By the same hand, his own 'perceived' better education over me has made him fall foul in some instances where I knew what the score was and he didn't believe me. Everybody will suffer from this DK effect to a certain extent, it's how you deal with the consequences and making sure you learn from firstly other peoples mistakes then secondly your own mistakes.

I read your posts with a certain amount of guard, as i do read the news from many sources. Propaganda is rife on both sides of this Ukraine calamity. The thing i get from the whole situation is

1. Russia may or may not have their super weapons working.
2. The US definetly needs the WW3 scenario because of their debt situation, $35bn at the last count and rising, that's not including the personal debt the citizens have acquired.
3. Zelensky is more than happy to receive the multi million dollar handouts so he can skim off the top for personal gain.
4. WW3 is coming.

What ever you do, please don't stop posting as I find them interesting and gives me other things to think about.

...lol. The thing with the british public, they were stupid/apathetic enough not to vote and have allowed Islam to get a foot hold in the country. They are even stupider to vote for Labour thinking they were the ipso facto opposition to the Conservatives. Lord knows what is going to happen in the next 4 years in the UK, it certainly isn't going to be pretty. Russia and the US have plenty of places where the population can run away to the hills and avoid the mushroom clouds that will arrive. The Uk doesn't, well, certainly not enough space for that many people to run too anyway.

I say that anyone who comes to a web site like ATS and presents an expose on DCE as if all here do not already have knowledge of it has not applied it to themselves much at all. Either that or an other possibility. Knowledge of DCE can be used as a psychological weapon to undermine another persons self assurance in order to gain a dominant position in a debate or argument or even a simple conversation. I'll put it another way.

Those who, taking into account their own susceptibility to 'DCE ,are more willing to reevaluation of themselves when confronted with a wise and intelligent sounding presentation that runs contrary to their understanding of things. At this point they become susceptible to false information being presented by that other presentation.

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

Hmm, my friend, your thoughts are very interesting. It is impossible to eliminate a systemic problem, in my opinion. Because it is in the very essence of man. Different levels of education and, in our case, morality and ethics, imply different levels of perception of reality and knowledge. Perception of events - the ability to critically approach any "fact", to question any statement of "opinion leaders". Knowledge - the ability to separate the "wheat from the chaff", that is, to receive knowledge in its crystal purity, separated from superficial phenomena, mainly political ones. Agree that there are few people now, with the exception of some ascetics and monks, who can super objectively describe modern world phenomena and predict the future, based only on publications in Western, and even non-Western media. A person is valuable as an individual because he can think critically, subject all information to analysis, on the basis of which he can draw personal conclusions for himself. Moreover, taking into account the effect I described, he even questions and criticizes his own conclusions. A person who speaks in slogans is already a dead person, because he is not capable of critically evaluating not only himself, but also the facts of the reality surrounding him.
One thing is good, there are more smart, critically thinking people in the world, no matter what the globalists try to convince us that man is an animal and obeys only instincts (mostly sexual, perverted).
Thank you for your comment, it made me think like this))))

originally posted by: WeMustCare
a reply to: RussianTroll

Excellent thread. I'd never heard of this effect before. It describes my sister-in-law perfectly, who confidently gives people directions, and they're always wrong.

I find this soooooo very hard to believe, that you have never heard of DCE. You have been on ATS under this pen name since that cash and under another for years before that. How is it possible that you have never heard of it before. There have been threads on it and untold number of conversations about it though out many many others. It can easily be considered here that you have not been paying attention to much else in these forums other than your own threads and comments to have made such a claim as you have here.

a reply to: McUrnsalso

"The thing with the british public, they were stupid/apathetic enough not to vote and have allowed Islam to get a foot hold in the country."

Who do you think we could have voted for to make any difference?

originally posted by: WeMustCare
a reply to: RussianTroll

Excellent thread. I'd never heard of this effect before. It describes my sister-in-law perfectly, who confidently gives people directions, and they're always wrong.

He describes us all perfectly, my friend)))