I am really seeing the effects of the economy now

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

post threads was pretty dark as was post black Wednesday everyone i knew lost their homes, soros as a hero to some laid waste to the UK supercharging a recession that cost many their homes jobs and pensions, through that lens its easy to see who is a friend and who is an enemy, neither Soros or Westminster are allies of this country, casn throw in washingto and brussels because they are all the same..

Though I'm not sure this will be as bad as dotcom 1 or black Wednesday for the uk, not so sure about the EU or at the far end of this cycle the US and their stuff is just stacking up.. dotcom 2 just hands more power to china as its spent the pandemic catching up with the US.. thats the true cost of lockdowns..

In the past two weeks two different mom and pop pizza places closed in neighboring towns. One was the only shop of any sort in the town other than the library, the post office and a couple churches.

Mike-Sells potato chips (a local/regional brand to Dayton, Ohio) is done after 112 years. Meaning they made it through the Great Depression and two world wars. Eras that all but eliminated discretionary spending, but couldn’t make it through this. 60 workers isn’t a major impact, but that is 60ish families that are not freely spending in the local economy.

Part of what makes a functioning community is communal spaces. We can’t talk if there is nowhere to run into one another. Swapping stories in a pub or coffee shop, spending the night at the inn while traveling and eating supper at the table in the common room. The market, block parties and festivals, church, theater…

Simply put, children that don’t go outside and mingle with other children, do not play baseball.

a reply to: NightSkyeB4Dawn

Now THAT Night was pretty bizarre

originally posted by: nickyw
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

post threads was pretty dark as was post black Wednesday everyone i knew lost their homes, soros as a hero to some laid waste to the UK supercharging a recession that cost many their homes jobs and pensions, through that lens its easy to see who is a friend and who is an enemy, neither Soros or Westminster are allies of this country, casn throw in washingto and brussels because they are all the same..

Though I'm not sure this will be as bad as dotcom 1 or black Wednesday for the uk, not so sure about the EU or at the far end of this cycle the US and their stuff is just stacking up.. dotcom 2 just hands more power to china as its spent the pandemic catching up with the US.. thats the true cost of lockdowns..

For sure Nickyw the housing was bad back then and might be same in the next few months. You just wouldn't believe the building going on in the midlands right now, loads of new housing estates all over, in the cities, smaller towns, new places in the sticks. It like the whole economy is based on buildning houses, yet I know very few people who if at this point in the time wanted to get on the props ladder would be capable / even want to do it. Once the housing market goes down we as a nation are screwed, the businesses that supported home ownership are folding on mass, the high streets are falling apart, just charity shops and coffee house, gambling places. So many small businesses factories in around Wolverhampton closing and relocating abroad to the EU so it's Brexit as a double whammy too. No good can come of any of it. Throw in the interest rates and we've got a right storm brewing. It's almost as if someone or some nation has decalred war on us people in the west

The big R word. No one wants to talk about it, except maybe ask Are we going to have a recession?
This is like asking someone, Do you still beat your wife? In other words, a loaded question.

I am here in the US. There are hundreds of thousands of layoffs going on now, esp in the tech and media industries.

Mostly in California, but also now in more Eastern states as well. California is always a canary in the coal mine about the trends that will soon move to the rest of the US.

Now, most of these tech and media layed off people were making very large incomes. They pay fantastically high monthly rent payments.
Now you have hundreds of thousands of unemployed people looking for jobs. Most often in the same areas.

If this is not a clear recession, what is? Granted, it may have not reached you yet, but it will later this year. Garenteed.

People and the news media hate using the R word. Maybe if we dont use nor accept recession, it wont happen to us. This is the general thinking.

One reason why the wealthy, esp, hate accepting recession is because not only does recession accompany huge layoffs, but it also always involves a big stock market selloff.

So forget the Will we have a recession?question. This is just a propaganda attempt to keep stock market prices elevated.

Some are expecting a big selloff in the stock market soon. There will have to be a big trigger for this to happen. I dont see any big catylist for a major sell off any time soon.
But mid year, and there after, all bets are off.
We can not predict what might happen that far out.

One thing is for sure. Inflation is still SKY HIGH in the US. Esp huge inflationary bubbles in such markets as the stock market, automobiles/vehicles, homes, celluar, and rents.

It will take an epic stock market crash to pop these bubbles.

Which, I think will happen sometime in your lifetime. Right now, the middle class is being sqweesed into the lower class, just like they have it in Mexico and Latin America. Small upper class, small middle class, big lower class.

a reply to: Ahabstar

In the past two weeks two different mom and pop pizza places closed in neighboring towns. One was the only shop of any sort in the town other than the library, the post office and a couple churches.

It’s a busy week and I’ve been eating out more than normal. Today went to Panera to have a quick salad with hubby and the place was DEAD. Just a few people. Just a few years back there would have been a line trying to order.
It was so empty I just couldn’t believe it.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I gave up dinning out because I noticed a decrease in civility among servers and patrons.

In the small rural area, close to home, there seems to be still a lot of camaraderie, and friendliness, not so much of that do I see in the cities. And I did most of my dining out when I was away from home.

I give those area a wide berth. Just like with the airlines, I just don't put myself into areas where it has become the norm for people to be their worse selves.

I don't have the patience, and I worked too hard and too long, to corral and tame the vicious angry monster inside of me. I am not about to put myself in any situation that opens that door, if I can avoid it.

a reply to: NightSkyeB4Dawn

I don't have the patience, and I worked too hard and too long, to corral and tame the vicious angry monster inside of me. I am not about to put myself in any situation that opens that door, if I can avoid it.

That is why I completely stopped going to Walmart. I ended up mad every single time.
I haven’t missed it at all!

Most of the regular places I frequent around here are still pretty busy, but I live in a place that did not shut down as much to COVID and that might be part of it. Some places are a little more insulated, so they are weathering it a tiny bit better. That's not to say things are great, only that no one is talking armageddon quite yet.

Big Tech has been laying of thousands of people. Tech can't exist without the rest of the economy, so if the other part is going down tech will go with it.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I know both owners. Gary said his was either feast or famine week to week. The Dusky’s, who also owned the mom and pop hardware store, said that they just never recovered from Covid lockdowns in the restaurant part and the pizza takeout part wasn’t enough to pay the bills as the restaurant menu didn’t work for to go orders. Rising food costs and unavailability of some items pretty much kept the restaurant closed even when things started recovering.

Also another pizza place changed owners either the end of last year or the beginning of this year.

Generally pizza is one of those things that you only fail if you produce a bad product. The mark up is 300%-500% depending on the market and your overhead for rent, utilities, paper goods and other consumables.

Pizza is a canary in the coal mine as to discretionary spending, and this bird isn’t chirping and is getting stiff.

I do know where I am seeing the economy.

Tae kwon do is an expensive sport. Prior to COVID, tournaments used to be packed to the rafters. Now, post-COVID our school is just now recovering its usual level of students, but when we go to tournaments, they are not nearly as full as they used to be. A lot of schools closed and never re-opened. People don't have the money.

originally posted by: JAGStorm
That is why I completely stopped going to Walmart. I ended up mad every single time.
I haven’t missed it at all!

Yeah. I haven't been in a Walmart for 11 years. Yes, they were kind of rude, but the reason I stopped going was because all the Walmarts in my area turned into Super Walmarts and they had less selection of items than the regular Walmarts had. At least less of what I needed to buy. So, if a store doesn't sell what you need, why go there?

originally posted by: JAGStorm
a reply to: NightSkyeB4Dawn

I don't have the patience, and I worked too hard and too long, to corral and tame the vicious angry monster inside of me. I am not about to put myself in any situation that opens that door, if I can avoid it.

That is why I completely stopped going to Walmart. I ended up mad every single time.
I haven’t missed it at all!

About the time I got cut off in the parking lot by an 80-year-old grandma, I stopped going to Walmart. When even little old ladies turn viciously rude, there is something wrong with a place. I used to like Target, but people there are getting to be as bad lately.

I believe this is called the rubber band effect, which leads to a massive economic recession. Scarcity - > price hikes - > increased production to meet increased demand - > reduced demand due to price hikes - > market saturated heavily - > prices drop drastically to clear shelves - > broke people buy up all the cheap # they can - > cycle continues, each subsequent wave continues to get bigger and bigger till something breaks.

I've been noticing this a lot with stuff at the grocery store here in Korea. I always buy the grocery store dips! But I also know it'll continue to get worse and worse between scarcity and high prices and abundance and low prices, # will never get more stable.

a reply to: JAGStorm

originally posted by: JAGStorm
a reply to: Merlynn

No discount places?

We have some places near by that you can get brand name shampoo for a buck, sometimes a little more, depends on store, buyers, etc.

Places like Costoco/Sams are just not worth it.

I check theses places regularly, not just for products, but if not much is showing up there and nothing in regular stores, major issues.

Let me tell you, Costco is totally 10000% worth it, (to me)
A few weeks ago I tried to shave with a razon made for women that I got from Target.
It wasn't the highest end, but wasn't cheap. That sucker cut up my leg. That razor burn hurt like the dickens!
Then the exact same thing happened to my daughter. I don't know if they were defective, or just cheap and we aren't used to them, but I will never go back to discount razors! I have to use the Gilette multi blade ones.

Also Costco has excellent seafood and red meat. Their fruits and veggies are also much nicer than most grocery stores. They are also often cheaper if you can use the bulk amounts (which we do)

Years of waxing, I don't have leg hair.

And I don't eat much meat and I hate seafood.

Plus no Cosco here, only Sams. I liked Cosco when I was in WA, but I went free. I went to Sams for free for a year, wasn't worth it for me. Sams does have good Salsa.

I hate COSTCO. Yes, the quality is high. But so is your check out bill. It is not called Costco for nuthin.

originally posted by: Merlynn

originally posted by: JAGStorm
a reply to: Merlynn

No discount places?

We have some places near by that you can get brand name shampoo for a buck, sometimes a little more, depends on store, buyers, etc.

Places like Costoco/Sams are just not worth it.

I check theses places regularly, not just for products, but if not much is showing up there and nothing in regular stores, major issues.

Let me tell you, Costco is totally 10000% worth it, (to me)
A few weeks ago I tried to shave with a razon made for women that I got from Target.
It wasn't the highest end, but wasn't cheap. That sucker cut up my leg. That razor burn hurt like the dickens!
Then the exact same thing happened to my daughter. I don't know if they were defective, or just cheap and we aren't used to them, but I will never go back to discount razors! I have to use the Gilette multi blade ones.

Also Costco has excellent seafood and red meat. Their fruits and veggies are also much nicer than most grocery stores. They are also often cheaper if you can use the bulk amounts (which we do)

Years of waxing, I don't have leg hair.

And I don't eat much meat and I hate seafood.

Plus no Cosco here, only Sams. I liked Cosco when I was in WA, but I went free. I went to Sams for free for a year, wasn't worth it for me. Sams does have good Salsa.

Yep, I can’t buy a used (2019 or newer) truck to save my life with cash. Right now I’m finding used 2022 trucks with 30k miles or more for $10k over MSRP. One dealer wouldn’t even negotiate on price when I showed up to see a low mileage truck that was scratched, dented, dinged, and had ripped interior. Some of trucks are sitting on the lots for months and the best the dealers want to do is knock off $200! Like, I have cash in full. I’m not going to pay over MSRP, nor am I going to buy a piece of junk just so I can have a truck. This is ridiculous.

Yet, alcohol prices are about what they have always been. Funny how that happens....

a reply to: ketsuko

I used to like Target, but people there are getting to be as bad lately.

My husband and I both like Target but we can't shop there anymore. They changed their dang lighting and it gives us both headaches!! It's not at all Walmarts but at the ones they have rennovated they switched to some crazy kind of LED.
I can't stand it and walking around indoors with sunglass isn't my thing.