I am really seeing the effects of the economy now

Not sure if we are technically in a recession, but it is sure feeling like it! Here’s my Midwest edition! (Are you seeing the same things?)

Went on a lunch date with a good friend. We wanted to go to a newer restaurant. First place Closed.
Wanted to try a different newer place, Closed. Third time’s a charm. We ended up at a local place that is popular but it
Was very empty during lunch rush hour. The first two places aren’t permanently closed (yet) but it seems odd to be completely closed on Tuesday. Most likely due to lack of staffing. I feel this will have a negative snowball effect.

I’m very big into the antiques scene. I feel antiques are a great litmus test for the economy. (Only for mid to lower priced ones)
I noticed the stores must really be suffering because they are starting to advertise and do gimmicky things. My guess is most people are using any excess money to buy groceries these days. Antique and “toys” are the first things to go when the economy contracts.

Emails from hotels are filling up my inbox, even ones from a decade or more ago. I looked at prices at a few and they are the absolute lowest I’ve seen in a long time. Spring break is coming up and I think that will really push some of these places over the edge, because the numbers just aren’t there.

The auto industry. I am in the market for a car and have been looking for the last 2 years. I’m glad I didn’t buy at inflated prices, because not only have prices come down, the inventory is substantially better now. I suspect more will flood the market too.

Layoffs, I’m hearing more and more locally.

Food is a no brainer. We all know food has skyrocketed, but I’m seeing shifty things being done at the grocery store.
Bought some pastries and one bite and I knew they were very stale. I looked at the date and they still had a ways to go. I know some of these places are repacking or re-dating. It happens. Grocery stores enjoyed massive profits during Covid, but I imagine even with high prices, some of that is coming back down to earth now. Look at package sizes, some shelves still have the old size while packaging has the new size, sometimes it’s just an oz or so, but seeing massive shrinking of product. I noticed that some products have reformulated and taste terrible now too!


Last but not least…….Housing. It has not crashed in my area and it rarely does because we aren’t in a bubble area like part of Florida or Seattle.
What I have seen is houses sitting on the market, and sitting, and reducing, but they are still sitting….People are still delusional that 3 bedrooms are worth a million…in the Midwest…in the middle of nowhere! I see a lot of houses that are newer built. I did hear that the cheapest of cheapest materials were used. Maybe these buyers are trying to get out knowing that. Maybe some of these sellers have been recently laid off.

a reply to: JAGStorm

Yeah to all of that but At least Trump doesn’t tweet anymore

We are being totally lied to about inflation by government officials.

The eggs I bought during COVID were 99 cents a dozen at Walmart, admitedly to get people in the store. A few months ago they were over $2 a dozen, yesterday I paid $7 a dozen for one dozen eggs. Inflation at 8% give me a break.

There's a mass exodus from big cities going on and smaller towns in conservative states seem to be a prime target. What seems like ridiculous prices to locals seems like a steal for someone from California.

The most effed up thing about all of this is you could fix it all in a day. Just correct one thing

Its all by design

a reply to: nugget1

www.morningstar.com... ns-that-prices-will-drop-in-your-city

Home sellers aren't keen on listing their homes, given that they've recently secured an ultra-low mortgage rate. Home buyers, as a result, are struggling to find good options as the number of homes for sale remains low.

That’s the other thing. Anyone that was able secured a stupid low rate for their mortgage (usually under 4%, sometimes closer to 2%)
That is a double edge sword. If they sell they wouldn’t be able to afford the same kind of house! This locks a lot of people into a place unless they absolutely have to move. On the flip side, if people have an adjustable rate… they are screwed!

ignoring the technicalities of a word we've been in one for 3 quarters now and it's expected to really show its true face this quarter..

much of it has been masked by the media and politicians to use as a political tool for social engineering and finger pointing..

for those of us watching the US we're watching housing and construction as the litmus tests for where the us and by extension the global economy really is..

ETA dot com v2 has already happened... its why Musk got twitter otherwise it'd be gutting itself as we speak...

a reply to: nugget1

which again masks the flip side that those moving out no one is moving in.. this isn't churn its abandonment and a repeat of the cities ad towns dying in the 60s 70s.

a reply to: JAGStorm

cheap money is bad when it's let corporates suppress wages so the staff can no longer repay the fair rate of 6%.. cheap money = supressed wages and a fragile society that can't survive shocks without the family silver.. this is what happened to the UKs Aristos in the 1920s and 30s.

a reply to: nickyw

the us situation is replicated in the eurozone and the UK, the last quarter of 22 saw the steepest decline on record for the eurozone beating the declines seen in the financial crisis, euro crisis and lockdown stages of the pandemic.. a number of eurozone economies like vast swathes of the us are propped up by construction, some areas of the us have gone negative due to abandonment rather than churn..

its f*cking scary the hard landing is weeks at best a month or so away..

originally posted by: nickyw
a reply to: JAGStorm

cheap money is bad when it's let corporates suppress wages so the staff can no longer repay the fair rate of 6%.. cheap money = supressed wages and a fragile society that can't survive shocks without the family silver.. this is what happened to the UKs Aristos in the 1920s and 30s.

Fragile society is such a good term for this.
It really feels like we are walking on eggshells.

a reply to: JAGStorm

Look at the date I wrote this, and my last line!!! I’m really glad I took my own advice at the time! It’s not too late either.
Those with limited means, even if you can scrape to buy one of these items each month it will add up.

posted on Feb, 24 2022 @ 07:42 AM link quote reply First, GAS Shelf stable foods, rice, beans, pasta, canned goods. Make sure you have means to store and know how to rotate. Water, water purification Everything gardening related, seeds, TOOLS - I can’t stress this enough. I think if things get bad these things will be harder and more expensive to get. PEST control. Durable clothing. Order those jeans now, and good shoes, and outerwear. When people talk about prepping we are not saying War is coming to our door, although it might. We know that there are consequences for war even many thousands miles away. Prepping will have you ready for anything, job loss, illness, or the most likely case for many of us - inflation!!!!! Please add anything I’ve forgotten!!!

Job Loss, or Inflation!!!!!

www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: JAGStorm

sadly we've been living on eggshells for decades but the 2007/8 financial crisis should have been our our wake up call, a call all sides have ignored..

originally posted by: nickyw
a reply to: JAGStorm

sadly we've been living on eggshells for decades but the 2007/8 financial crisis should have been our our wake up call, a call all sides have ignored..

2008/09 was terrible for my family, but I will say that lesson stayed with us and shaped us. That’s why us middle aged folks will do better this go round than the younger people. They are already going into shock over layoffs, prices and housing. They haven’t even seen anything yet. LIKE every single person you know being laid off. Seeing lifelong friends move out of state. Seeing kids cry over having to leave the only school district they’ve ever known. Seeing marriages break down over the financial stresses. Seeing people do the unthinkable due to the stresses.

It’s not here yet, it really isn’t, but like you I don’t think we are far away from it.

a reply to: JAGStorm



though we appear to be heading into stagflation territory.. which tends to mean inflation rate is high, the economic growth slows, and unemployment increases but for us we have to throw the addition factors of increased numbers of retirees, a labour shortage and an increasingly angry population..

in 20007/8 uk pm coined the tern not winter of discontent but rather a summer of rage.. it looks like we'll finally see the summer of rage rather than love..

a reply to: JAGStorm

I’ll give a few examples of many from my region. Both are comparisons of this January and February vs. last years.

As I’ve stated before, I own a biz in tourism. I went over my books from last January and February. I’m doing roughly 1/3 the business this January and February as opposed to last year.

I have multiple friends that own AirBnB’s. One of them told me a month ago, that she made 22k in January and 24k in February last year. This year, she has not one single booking for either month.

As to the holiday season. In every years past, every hotel is at 100% occupancy for the week of thanksgiving and Christmas. This last Christmas, the hotels averaged roughly 40% occupancy. With one very popular hotel (one of the few reasonably priced) was at 5%.

I wish I was retired living in the mountains somewhere. Far away from this manufactured crisis….

a reply to: JAGStorm

grew up in 70s uk cold.. but as an adult went through dot com 1, black Wednesday (interests rates to 20s), the 2007/8 crash and all have been learning curves..

have 3 boys I've tried to educate them on this..

but its massive learning curve that includes paying for food with bags of pennies, sitting ni court asking a judge for a it more time and yes, actually hid behind the sofa as I've not had the money to pay debt collectors that day..

in the end i paid it all down but its a horrendous journey... the thing is its as impossible to teach your kids those lessons as it is to teach how much fire hurts..

all my kids are grounded in reality, and i do worry about those who are not.. summer of rage will only be part of it..

a reply to: KKLOCO

I wish I was retired living in the mountains somewhere. Far away from this manufactured crisis….

snap but i see it as self inflicted my choice though my escape would be St. Helena as far from everyone else as you can get.. but mountains are good too

a reply to: KKLOCO

I have multiple friends that own AirBnB’s. One of them told me a month ago, that she made 22k in January and 24k in February last year. This year, she has not one single booking for either month.

Although part of that is due to the economy the other part is that AirBnB’s have been vilified on social media.
Not sure if that was an organic thing, or another thing the powerful influenced. When you think about it, a lot of very wealthy families have hotels. Hotels were directly hurt by Airbnb’s…. Hmmmm

Also people saw regular people getting rich FAST with AirBnB’s and for whatever reason, regular people hate nothing more than someone like them to win the game. It’s ok if the wealthy do it because they are “untouchable” but when they see their neighbor, their coworker etc, they just hate it..

originally posted by: Notabot12345666
a reply to: JAGStorm

Yeah to all of that but At least Trump doesn’t tweet anymore

Yep the net positive to:

horrible inflation

out of control crime in Dem run cities

small businesses going out of business at record levels


We used to save quite a bit every month and eat out regularly Now that eating out costs double or more than it used to, I worry we'll be able to save a tiny bit every month. What about people, the majority of US citizens who were living paycheck to paycheck. Who can afford to eat out as they used to? Not me. for sure

BUT it is all worth it because we don't have to endure Trump tweets. According to Biden, the Dems, and liberals.