Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: stu119
a reply to: Bishop2199

I would think it was an error. Russia don't want a war with NATO, they are happy having them give away their military hardware and millions in aid for Russia to destroy it with cold war era stockpiled hardware they are using.

Just as Ukraine made a balls up and launched in Poland in November 2022 killing 2 farmers, this is likely the same thing.

The last time Russia fired a missile into Poland, it was neither an error, nor a provocation, at least the primary intention was not to provoke. The missile that went into Poland was programmed with a flight path intended to confuse Ukrainian air defenses by skirting around them, then attack the target from the Poland direction rather than from the Russia direction, so the U-Turn appeared to be completely intentional. It just made a brief jaunt through Polish airspace during the U-turn which Putin didn't think would provoke a response and he was right. Well the response was "please dont do that again" and I would guess that Putin's forces just did it again, though I haven't researched this latest event. History does repeat itself sometimes though. So now Poland will probably say "please dont do that again", but I don't think that's enough to stop Russia from doing it again.

Don't get me wrong, sometimes Russia and even the US, and other countries test each others air defenses, so it happens. But that didn't seem to be the case with the previous missile that went into Poland's airspace, the goal was apparently to confuse Ukraine air defenses in that case rather than to test Poland's defenses.

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
a reply to: Imhere

Zelensky might well be having a Hitler fit moment and throwing thousands of men to their certain deaths to defend the impossible, yet with Russian elections weeks away and rumours that Putin afterwards is going to mobalise the masses to invade Ukraine properly then who knows if handing over Avdiivka is a good idea or not.

Zelensky has no choice. Either withdraw from Avdiivka (one of Ukraine’s most fortified areas, especially in the East)

Or risk his troops getting encircled.

Which would escalate the feud between Zelensky and Zaluzhny further.

Zelensky lost this one.

That’s 3 major blows now. While trying to shift the blame on aid now. When Zelensky lost the summer offensive regardless of aid.

Being reported now Ukrainian forces started to mine buildings in Avdiivka. That means the battle for retreat has started.

We saw the same in Bahkmut, when UA tried to fight its way out of the cauldron.

Some serious Barbecue in Izhevsk, Russia this evening . Biggest boom i seen in this 2 year


Large explosion reported near Izhevsk, Russia this evening.

Other source was saying it`s a plant that makes Iskander and other missiles.

Cant know the reason yet . Maybe Russians again smoking in wrong place


Some sources say it`s Votkinsk Machine-Building plant :

About: Votkinsk Machine Building Plant

RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile, Russia's most recent ICBM development, as well as the submarine-launched Bulava SLBM

Votkinsk Machine Building Plant


Not sure thought is that the place or plant .


A powerful explosion occurred near the Russian Izhevsk: a column of fire can be seen for kilometers (video)

"US lawmakers are scrambling to salvage a military aid package for Ukraine and Israel, after the Senate rejected a bipartisan border deal.

The failed compromise had bundled US-Mexico border restrictions together with aid to Ukraine and Israel.

But the pact, which was four months in the making, collapsed after Donald Trump urged Republicans to block it.

Republicans said its immigration reforms did not go far enough, while some Democrats said they went too far.

Senators are now trying to fashion a new version of the legislation.

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has put forward a back-up bill, which strips out the immigration measures while leaving the foreign aid intact."

Absolutely mental.

a reply to: Imhere

Very interesting thoughts Imhere and can see where you are coming from. At the same time why would Zelensky pull out now, he's shown no comapssion for impending loss of men and weapons and was quick to sacrifice thousands in Mariupol and Bakhmut when defeat was looking guaranteed.

7 February Update

Russian forces conducted the second largest combined drone and missile strike of 2024 on the morning of February 7. Ukrainian military sources stated that Russian forces launched 64 drones and missiles at Ukraine: 20 Shahed 136/131 drones; 29 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles; four Kh-22 cruise missiles; three Kalibr cruise missiles; three Iskander-M ballistic missiles; and five S-300 surface-to-air missiles. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 44 of 64 targets: 26 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles; three Kalibr cruise missiles; and 15 Shahed-131/131 drones.

Yandex NV — the Dutch holding company of Russian internet technology company Yandex — announced that it will sell all of its Russian assets for 475 billion rubles (about $5.2 billion) to a purchasing consortium consisting of five Russian companies.

More at URL above.

Cheers

It's official. Zelensky replaced the top military commander in Ukraine Zaluzhny with Syrsky:

The dismissal of Valery Zaluzhny is a crucial new phase in the war

I wonder if there are back room discussions that it's difficult to get the US to resume support for Ukraine's war after the failed counter-offensive if nothing has changed in Ukraine since then? Because apparently the failed counter-offensive is part of the reason for Zaluzhny's dismissal. Though from what I've heard, Zaluzhny didn't want to perform the counter-offensive into Russia's strongest defense likes near Robotyne as was done, but I haven't heard what his idea was instead. So anyway it seems odd to fire him for the failed counteroffensive if he actually was forced to conduct it in the areas he didn't want to conduct it.

So will this help getting a Ukraine support package approved for Ukraine? Time will tell. Russia is still gaining ground in Avdiivka, now holding something like 15% of the town, and getting closer to the main supply road Ukraine is using, now maybe 500 meters away from it? If Russia takes that supply road, Ukraine will be forced to withdraw. Ukraine is saying they feel the lack of support from the US and lack of shells etc is part of the reason they are losing ground. Of course, the EU is also behind on the promised deliveries of a million sheels to Ukraine, so that isn't helping either.

Back on the topic of military commanders, what ever happened to the top military commander in Russia, Gerasimov? Is he still alive? A post said he was killed in a Ukraine attack, but this is unconfirmed.

He disappeared... Russia's shaken by an announcement - is he dead?

In an article titled "Where is General Gerasimov and why does it matter?" published last week in the Kyiv Post, retired US Army Colonel Jonathan Sweet and former economist Mark Toth wrote that while the question is whether Gerasimov is dead, his absence from the public scene and Moscow's silence about his current status are "interesting".

"It is strange that the Kremlin did not respond to the rumors that he was killed in Crimea, considering how far it went in denying the death of its commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov immediately after the missile attack on the Black Sea Fleet on September 22 last year. Continued silence in the Kremlin potentially speaks," they state in the text.

After the failed rebellion of the Wagner paramilitary group, it was noted that Gerasimov did not appear in public, state media and press releases.

a reply to: Arbitrageur


I am no expert , but it to me looked like Ukraine just did not have the equipment , enough or right for the counter-offensive earlyer .

Btw there is huge building fires in Moscow.....

Reports that Russia is using activated Starlink tech in Ukraine . Is Russia using Elon to kill Ukrainians ?

Russia Deploying Starlink in Ukraine—Reports

8 February Update

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced General Valerii Zaluzhnyi with Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi as Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief on February 8, as part of wider military leadership changes.

Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted a one-to-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on February 8. Ukrainian and Russian military officials stated that Russia and Ukraine exchanged 100 Ukrainian POWs for 100 Russian POWs.

The Russian Central Election Committee (CEC) refused to register Boris Nadezhdin, the only anti-war Russian presidential candidate, for the March 2024 presidential election likely due to his larger-than-anticipated popularity.

Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on February 8.

More at URL above.

Cheers

The replacement Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi isn’t exactly popular it seems. However, some are saying to have tactics aligning more with Zelensky.

Apparently he’s Russian. Don’t quote me on that. Or at least went to academy in Moscow. But so did others from ex Soviet countries.

We’ll see. Was a crazy week with news all around.

9 February Update

Ukrainian outlet Suspilne, citing its internal sources in the Ukrainian security service (SBU), reported that SBU drones struck the Ilsky and Afipsky oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai on February 9.

Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are increasing their use of illegal chemical weapons in Ukraine, in an apparent violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which Russia is a signatory.

Russian forces advanced near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the frontline.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
It's official. Zelensky replaced the top military commander in Ukraine Zaluzhny with Syrsky:

Back on the topic of military commanders, what ever happened to the top military commander in Russia, Gerasimov? Is he still alive? A post said he was killed in a Ukraine attack, but this is unconfirmed.

He disappeared... Russia's shaken by an announcement - is he dead?

In an article titled "Where is General Gerasimov and why does it matter?" published last week in the Kyiv Post, retired US Army Colonel Jonathan Sweet and former economist Mark Toth wrote that while the question is whether Gerasimov is dead, his absence from the public scene and Moscow's silence about his current status are "interesting".

"It is strange that the Kremlin did not respond to the rumors that he was killed in Crimea, considering how far it went in denying the death of its commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov immediately after the missile attack on the Black Sea Fleet on September 22 last year. Continued silence in the Kremlin potentially speaks," they state in the text.

After the failed rebellion of the Wagner paramilitary group, it was noted that Gerasimov did not appear in public, state media and press releases.

General Gerasimov was seen yesterday.

Discussing with Shoigu in the latest briefing.

There were rumors around, but he was confirmed seen in the latest briefing with Shoigu.

a reply to: Imhere

You dont give links that confirm it ?

( A long overdue wave to members @Magesticgent and @Xcathdra for their contributions to these threads. Miss you, gents ... )

Cheers

originally posted by: Kenzo

Reports that Russia is using activated Starlink tech in Ukraine . Is Russia using Elon to kill Ukrainians ?

Russia Deploying Starlink in Ukraine—Reports

That's funny Russia can't even set up there own communications satellite anymore. They have to rely on star link. Amazing how Russian abilities in space has died.

a reply to: dragonridr

This starlink thing is still conflicting , or have different views ....some claim Russia can use and some say cant....i dont know what`s the truth .

It`s maybe possible russian figured to hack the system , but i dont know .

Here I thought I would mention the latest problem for Russia. Apparently the Russian dream of creating a financial system with China just ended. China cut off all transactions with Russian firms.

China will try to play this off to Putin saying it was the banks that made this decision. Though reality no Chinese bank would do anything the CCP didn't approve.

The Russian dream was them and China would stop using SWIFT the reality is China wants to increase its share not decrease it. Look at it from china's point of view they could go with Russia who economically is equivalent to Panama. Or alternative be on the system the rest of the planet uses.

So now China is implementing sanctions against Russia as banks have stated Russian firms must prove they have no relations with Russian military.

So what does this mean? The Chinese life line just ended for Russia. There is no options left to maintain the economy.

www.voanews.com...

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: dragonridr

This starlink thing is still conflicting , or have different views ....some claim Russia can use and some say cant....i dont know what`s the truth .

It`s maybe possible russian figured to hack the system , but i dont know .

Starlink is disabled in Russian territories so Russians in Russia can't use it, but it's enabled in Ukrainian territories. At 5 minutes in this video, Denys Davydov shows a map of where the starlink can be used in occupied territories outlined in red, that used to be Ukraine, so the Russians occupying those territories would be able to use starlink if they can get a valid account. A notable exception is Crimea which even though it's also occupied by Russia, Musk has refused to enable starlink there. Davydov also says the starlink connection speeds Ukraine is getting now are slow.

Update from Ukraine | Ruzzian Army is using Starlink | Shipment confirmed | Situation in Avdiivka



Starlink says Russia shouldn't be able to get those starlink units from the middle east, but Ukraine says they are getting them somehow, that needs to be investigated further.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

I will say this Elon musk could easily detect russian use of star link if it it being used he would have to be ignoring it. Access to starlink is handled by credit card even for Ukraine. This means simply seeing who's paying for it. And where it is being accessed from. If it's behind Rusdian lines it wouldn't be Ukrainian.

I have zero doubt starlink couldn't find out who is using their system and even where the unit was purchased from so either they are not or they are ignoring it on purpose.