Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Arbitrageur



Putin has shown over and over he cannot be trusted to negotiate. He continually breaks agreements he makes. The whole invasion was set during a cease-fire agreement between Ukraine and Russia. He agreed to allow grain shipments through negotiation then decided to break it not once but twice In fact every promise he has made to Ukraine has been broken at this point.

Now since this is a conspiracy site something interesting Russian state television is using footage from a plane crash 2 months ago and claiming it is Prigozhin plane we all have seen the footage it isn't Russia is lying. They discuss it here in this video right at the 60 min mark.




So now comes the question of why Russian state TV is lying?

24 August Update

The exact cause of Prigozhin’s plane crash remains unclear as US and Russian sources offered varying explanations, while Wagner-affiliated channels continued to call on Russian sources to stop speculating.

Ukrainian forces advanced closer to the Russian second line of defense in the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 24, further widening their breach of Russian defensive lines in the area. Geolocated footage published on August 24 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced further towards the Russian defensive lines west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv) and into southern Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv).

Russian forces conducted a missile strike on Dnipro City, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on August 24. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported that Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Rostov Oblast, an Iskander-K ballistic missile from Crimea, and likely S-300 missiles from occupied Tokmak at Dnipro City.

Ukrainian forces conducted a limited raid on the western shore of occupied Crimea on August 24. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) posted footage and announced that Ukrainian forces landed on the shores near Olenivka and Mayak (both 116km northeast of Sevastopol).

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: JAY1980

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: sapien82

I'm sure both Russians and Ukrainians will be freezing their asses off for their respective leaders.

it won't be interesting it will be sad and horrible for both sides

Well, one is protecting their homeland with supplies much closer and the other side is wondering what the hell are they doing with hardly anything, not even heat. It is going to get ugly for the Russians.

Supplies much closer?

Which msm outlet told you this tripe?

Ukraine is being supplied through Poland and Odessa by like 15 different nations around the globe, then they have to TRY and get it to the front in eastern Ukraine on a battlefield they have NO air support over.

More like 40 nations, not 15. And both sides lack air support. You aren't thinking about this logically.

Russia an is a long country and also stretches around the globe, while Europe is densely populated compared to Russia. So you have to compare the Russian and European industries at different distances to the front to see how well they can supply the armies.

So, Russia's GDP is 2.25 trillion. Some of it is very far away, but most of it is in western and south-western Russia.

Now let's look at nations supplying Ukraine. Germany, Poland and Romania are about as close to Ukraine as Russia is, maybe a bit closer. Their combined GDP is over 6 trillion. Buts that's not even counting nations like France, UK and Sweden who control major weapons industries and are only slightly more distant than the Russian industrial core.

Of course there's nations like the US, South Korea and Japan that indeed are located very far away, but still not very much farther than Russia.

a reply to: Cutepants

"Which msm outlet told you this tripe?"

Ummm...what woefully Ill informed outlet told you this tripe:

"Ukraine is being supplied through Poland and Odessa by like 15 different nations around the globe".

Oops. Apologies. That was meant to be a reply to JAY1980.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
24 August Update

"Ukrainian forces conducted a limited raid on the western shore of occupied Crimea on August 24. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) posted footage and announced that Ukrainian forces landed on the shores near Olenivka and Mayak (both 116km northeast of Sevastopol)."

Ukraine claimed to have killed 30 Russian soldiers in that attack with zero losses to their own troops. So it did have some limited value in military terms, but maybe it had more value as a morale boost for the Ukrainians and to create some propaganda to demoralize the Russian soldiers. Speaking of propaganda, Russia initially claimed that Russians destroyed all 4 of the Ukrainian boats used in that raid so the attackers were dealt with. But then Ukraine posted footage of the 4 undamaged boats leaving, so that was just more lies by Russian media.

originally posted by: dragonridr
So now comes the question of why Russian state TV is lying?

That's probably a rhetorical question, but I love cases like the Crimea attack mentioned above where Russia lies about the Ukrainian forces and boats being destroyed, and then Ukraine posts footage showing it was a lie. Though maybe you need to have a VPN in Russia to get any truth in the news from non-Russian media sources, and Russia even made some VPNs illegal.

Youtube recommended this video for me on Russian state TV lying, and I watched it. Yes they lie, a lot, and the liars get paid pretty well, which raises the question, do they know they are lying and just do it for the money, or are they so loyal to Putin they will repeat anything he tells them to say without investigation?

Servants of Hell: Fanatics of the Regime or Well-paid Liars? Special Report on Russian Propaganda

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
But we all know the real reason Prigozhin's plane was shot down, and it won't be the reason given in the report of the investigation.

He had a good reason to be flying to Moscow as he and his forces moved back to Africa, so it would be interesting to know why he was there in the first place. His pilots would also be talking to their ATC the whole time.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
But we all know the real reason Prigozhin's plane was shot down, and it won't be the reason given in the report of the investigation.

He had a good reason to be flying to Moscow as he and his forces moved back to Africa, so it would be interesting to know why he was there in the first place.

I read that sentence multiple times and still don't understand it. What was the good reason to be flying to Moscow? It would be interesting to know why he was where? In Moscow or in Africa? When his plane went down, it's my understanding it was flying not to Moscow, but from Moscow, to St Petersburg. At one point, I think last year Prigozhin had opened a big building in St Petersburg, so if he still had that, it might have been a reason to go there.

His pilots would also be talking to their ATC the whole time.

Would they?
I used to tune in to the ATC communication channel on the flights I was on when it was available, to hear the pilots of my flight communicating to ATC. They were not talking to ATC the whole time. Departures and arrivals are very chatty because there is a lot going on, but in between I didn't hear much going on, and it looks like Prigozhin's plane was not near the departure nor the arrival airport but somewhere in the middle.

This is interesting though:
Mapping the Prigozhin plane’s final flight

According to a report from FlightRadar24, the plane that crashed was not tracked using its precise location “likely due to … interference (or) jamming in the area,” though the company said it used another method to calculate its position using signals sent to multiple receivers in the area.

Flightradar24 said the jet went through a series of ascents and descents of a few thousand feet each over 30 seconds before its final, disastrous plunge.

If there was some kind of jamming in the area, that might have interfered with communications. Maybe Putin didn't want the pilot to be able to report what was going on? I don't know if we'll ever get all the real facts.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

I read that sentence multiple times and still don't understand it. What was the good reason to be flying to Moscow?

It was a good enough reason for him to risk flying in Russian airspace, would you agree? Knowing how that could be dangerous I wondered what that could have been. After all that went down, why would he even be within 500 miles of the Russian border?

Would they?
Departures and arrivals are very chatty because there is a lot going on, but in between I didn't hear much going on, and it looks like Prigozhin's plane was not near the departure nor the arrival airport but somewhere in the middle.

I'm a pilot so ya....

I said they would be in contact, so didn't say they would be chatting all the time. Contact means you are identified on the radar and they know who you are.

I also wonder if it wasn't a bomb on board...

originally posted by: Xtrozero
It was a good enough reason for him to risk flying in Russian airspace, would you agree? Knowing how that could be dangerous I wondered what that could have been. After all that went down, why would he even be within 500 miles of the Russian border?

It's hard to say if he had a good enough reason, especially since we don't know what the reason was. I don't know if you followed much of Prigozhin's rants or not over the past year. In some cases they were admirable to be blunt enough to tell truths that nobody else in Russia would tell, but in other cases they were sometimes rambling and not always that coherent.

Just because Prigozhin did something doesn't mean I assume he had a good reason to do it. He marched toward Moscow. Did he have a good reason to do that? Maybe so. Then he stopped when Lukashenko negotiated with him. Did he have a good reason to stop? Well, from my perspective, if he had a good reason to March on Moscow in the first place, then I don't see how he had a good reason to stop just because Lukashenko called him. But stop he did. So maybe he sometimes did things without having good reasons?

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

Just because Prigozhin did something doesn't mean I assume he had a good reason to do it.

I think you misunderstood me. It was a good reason for him and all his leadership to be in a situation where his life was in danger. I didn't mean a good reason in some general sense.

Spam removed.

25 August Update

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified successes in the directions of the Novodanylivka-Novopokropivka (5-13km south of Orikhiv) line and the Mala Tokmachka-Ocheretuvate (9-25km southeast of Orikhiv) line.

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov stated that Ukrainian drones targeted the base of the Russian 126th Guards Coastal Defense Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) near Perevalne, Simferopol Raion.

Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful missile and drone strike against targets in Odesa Oblast overnight on August 24-25. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-59 missiles, two Kalibr missiles, and one Shahed-136/131 drone and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all five projectiles.

More at URL above.

Cheers

After retaking Robotyne earlier in the week, Ukrainian troops are advancing toward Novoprokopívka, according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff. That town, about two miles south of Robotyne, sits aside the key TO408 highway and is a little more than 10 miles north of the city of Tokmak, which Russia has turned into a fortified garrison. As ... noted before, taking or bypassing Tokmak on a push south will be a major step toward making it to Melitopol, which ... is a major objective in Ukraine’s desire to reach Crimea and cut off the so-called land bridge to choke off Russian forces.

Link

Cheers

The push for the South continues as Ukrainian troops break through Russian defences to liberate Robotyne.

originally posted by: gortex
The push for the South continues as Ukrainian troops break through Russian defences to liberate Robotyne.

You're off message. Russia is winning don't you know.

We have all been told often enough.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2
Russia's army has a lot of problems like depleted command ranks, logistics problems, morale problems, etc, but one thing they apparently did well under the leadership of General Surovikhin was build some formidable defense lines. They apparently anticipated Tokmak as a prime target of Ukraine and really have a lot of defense lines there, in fact the path Ukraine is taking through Tokmak seems to be taking them through the greatest number of defense lines along the entire front, so it is tough going.

Satellite images reveal Russian defences before major assault

Surovikhin was recently fired, even though he apparently knew how to build defense lines and predict where Ukraine would want to attack. Maybe he was too sympathetic to Prigozhin?

26 August Update

Ukrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing through what Ukrainian and US sources suggested may be the most challenging series of prepared Russian defensive positions. Geolocated footage published on August 25 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced 1.5km southward northeast of Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv).

The "Rusich” Sabotage and Reconnaissance Group, a far-right Russian irregular paramilitary unit, announced on August 25 that the group will refuse to conduct combat missions in Ukraine until the Russian government secures the release of Rusich commander and founding member Yan Petrovsky, who is currently in Finnish custody.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances.

More at URL above, including discussion about Russian defensive works.

Cheers

Youtuber Suchomimus is reporting a pretty big Drone attack on Kursk Airbase-100 odd KM into Russia,hitting multiple planes.
Its unconfirmed as yet,but the interesting part is the type of drone-An Austrailian model made by Sypaq,made from cardboard.
In the video,its claimed that out of 15 drones used,only 2 did not hit their target-they say that cardboard is almost invisible on radar making these drones very hard to shoot down.


A really simple elegance to that design-cheap and easy to make in huuuge amounts-just a flat pack basic origami kit,pop in the engine and the 5kg payload and its onwards to Moscow..

If you were being fiendish,you could have teenagers and grandmas making these by the 100s until you had enough to do a multiple waved swarm on a major target.

Imagine the amount of chaos say 20 000 would do,each one loaded with a 5kg thermite or HE payload.
That would cause big problems for a warship/air base or even a city.
Real cheap,real simple,real dangerous.
Pretty scary thought.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Rusich Group?

Far right Neo-Nazis:

en.m.wikipedia.org...

Wonder if the Ukraine haters will be rushing on here with their outrage about these Nazis?

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

Interesting. Wikipedia had this to say about it:

The Corvo Precision Payload Delivery System (PPDS) is a small drone intended for logistics deliveries of payloads up to 5 kilograms (11 lb). The airframe is made of waxed cardboard and the drone is supplied as a self-assembly flatpack, complete with a tablet PC control centre.

With a range of up to 120 kilometres (75 mi), the PPDS can return and land for re-use, but its low cost means that it can also be treated as expendable when required.

So, a 240 kilometer striking range if the user doesn't care about getting it back.

As always, one should recall the other side can also employ such weapons.

Cheers