Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: shalao
The most likely scenario is in some years from now Russia withdraw troops from Ukraine under the condition Ukraine restores neutrality in its constitution which was removed following the 2014 Maidan revolution.

Are you able to show where the Ukrainian constitution deviates from what a normal sovereign country might choose to do? Russia's insistence that Ukraine is neutral, is just their way of saying they want to control Ukraine's future.

There I was thinking Russia's war was all because Ukrainians were all Nazis. Russia invent reasons to justify their belligerence.

Ukrainian constitution - opens in PDF

Why do you keep bringing up WW2 for heaven's sake? It's 2023 and a total different era. Also fhrRussian economy is standing up better than expected considering the sanctions. I'm sorry but you'll have to accept Russia has succeeded in returns Ng Novo Russia to the motherland. Also please accept that Ukraine's supposed offensive has proved to be anything but that and is right now is a total failure.

originally posted by: MrInquisitive

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
a reply to: Arbitrageur

A frozen conflict is a frozen conflict in every sense you can imagine and when dealing with the Russian's that's just the way they like it frozen

No, if you know the history of the eastern campaign during WWII, the conflict was anything but frozen in terms of movement.

This past winter was fairly warm, so the ground didn't have much of a chance to freeze up, which would've made for adequate terrain for mobile warfare. As such, neither side was able to attempt to make large gains this past winter.

Given sanctions against Russia, it's depreciating ruble and increasing debt, I very much doubt that Russia is for a frozen conflict, i.e. one in which the status quo is sustained, but in which hostilities continue. And given the ongoing purges of the Russian general staff, I wonder how well any new offensive by Russia will go, and even how it will be able to continue to withstand continuing Ukrainian offensive efforts.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

But it isn't a 'total failure'.
And Russia's invasion can not be described as a success.

Putin's original goal was to Blitzkrieg his way across the whole of Ukraine, that failed miserably.

The FACT that Russia is now caught up in a WWI style war of attrition approximately 18 months after the initial invasion is clear evidence of this.

With all due respect, you seem intent to constantly come up with new ways to either justify Putin's invasion or to paint it as some sort of success story.

19 July Update

Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely to further emphasize Russia’s objections to the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal and hinder Ukraine’s ability to export grain. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted strikes using 16 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, eight Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, six Onyx cruise missiles, one Kh-59 guided air missile, and 32 Iranian-made Shahed drones. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces predominantly targeted civilian and military infrastructure in Odesa Oblast with Kh-22 and Onyx missiles and that Ukrainian forces shot down 37 air targets including 13 Kalibrs, one Kh-59 missile, and 23 Shaheds.

An explosion at a Russian training ground in occupied Kirovskyi Raion (Islam Terek Raion), southeastern Crimea, disrupted the Russian use of the Tavrida highway that connects eastern Crimea to Sevastopol on July 19. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian ammunition depots detonated following an explosion at the Starokrymskyi Training Ground in Kirovskyi Raion.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 19 and made gains in these areas. Geolocated footage published on July 19 indicates that Ukrainian forces made gains near Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut). The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations north and south of Bakhmut City and forced Russian forces to retreat from positions northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut).

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

But it isn't a 'total failure'.
And Russia's invasion can not be described as a success.

Putin's original goal was to Blitzkrieg his way across the whole of Ukraine, that failed miserably.

The FACT that Russia is now caught up in a WWI style war of attrition approximately 18 months after the initial invasion is clear evidence of this.

With all due respect, you seem intent to constantly come up with new ways to either justify Putin's invasion or to paint it as some sort of success story.

You get nothing, zilch, out of this.

Except continuing painting some comedian, Gopher/grifter like Zelensky over Putin.

Taking a community of countries (nato) to go against 1. Russia.

Says a lot. Taking “nato” against 1.

How’s the preemptive “Crimea beach party liberation of 2023” going?

Crimea is set in stone behind the nukes.

Which is restraining a group of countries (nato) to go fully in.


How’s Bakhmut?

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
Why do you keep bringing up WW2 for heaven's sake? It's 2023 and a total different era. Also fhrRussian economy is standing up better than expected considering the sanctions. I'm sorry but you'll have to accept Russia has succeeded in returns Ng Novo Russia to the motherland. Also please accept that Ukraine's supposed offensive has proved to be anything but that and is right now is a total failure.

originally posted by: MrInquisitive

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
a reply to: Arbitrageur

A frozen conflict is a frozen conflict in every sense you can imagine and when dealing with the Russian's that's just the way they like it frozen

No, if you know the history of the eastern campaign during WWII, the conflict was anything but frozen in terms of movement.

This past winter was fairly warm, so the ground didn't have much of a chance to freeze up, which would've made for adequate terrain for mobile warfare. As such, neither side was able to attempt to make large gains this past winter.

Given sanctions against Russia, it's depreciating ruble and increasing debt, I very much doubt that Russia is for a frozen conflict, i.e. one in which the status quo is sustained, but in which hostilities continue. And given the ongoing purges of the Russian general staff, I wonder how well any new offensive by Russia will go, and even how it will be able to continue to withstand continuing Ukrainian offensive efforts.

I dunno, what would how Russia handled winter operations during WWII have to do with the current war? It wasn't like Russia was conducting offensive operations in Ukraine during WWII...whoops, turns out they were! Seems like a pertinent point to bring up when discussing two adversaries who have experience fighting in this very terrain during winter in a previous war.

You yourself were going on about Russia's cold climate. If any country, beside the northern Scandinavian ones, is capable of conducting offensive operations in winter it should be Russia, or do you disagree with that as well? Likewise, I figure Ukraine can handle winter operations fairly well. Yet the Russian winter offensive was for the most part a bust, and what it did accomplish was done by Wager PMC, and we all know what has become of that organization...

I wouldn't classify Ukraine's summer offensive as a total failure, and as I said, serious people are going to wait until the end of the dry season this year before making any pronouncements about how the summer campaign has gone. Again, Russia had a slow, 8 month campaign over late fall, winter and spring, and all they got was a destroyed Bakhmut along with tens of thousands of casualties and much loss of equipment. From what I've seen, even the early stages of the Ukrainian offensive only began in early July. We all gave Russia 8 months for their offensive, how how about giving Ukraine three months and some change to see what they can accomplish.

In case you weren't aware, the Ukrainians have seemed to have changed-up their strategy to one of attrition, taking out artillery and continuing with their destruction of Russian ammo and fuel depots and supply lines. Amateurs rely on tactics, professionals rely on logistics. From what I've seen in equipment loss figures, the Russians are losing 25+ artillery pieces/day. And this general of the 58th army, who was canned, and just came out and complained publicly was criticizing the poor Russian counter battery tactics being used by their army. I'll take his word for there being a lopsided attrition in artillery in the Ukrainian's favor.

But why do have such a woody for pronouncing the Ukrainian summer offensive being a complete failure? And the Russians have just started some offensive, and you seem to want to ballyhoo it as being the cat's pajama after only a couple of days. Seems a bit of a double standard on your part.

a reply to: Imhere

So, other than Zelensky bad/Putin good what are you trying to say?
That the Russian invasion was justified and a roaring success?

Please elaborate.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: Imhere

So, other than Zelensky bad/Putin good what are you trying to say?
That the Russian invasion was justified and a roaring success?

Please elaborate.

Use your eyes.

Look at the map.

Crimea and Bakhmut says hi

It’s taking 100s of billions of dollars from a group of countries (nato) and their underwear thrown in, to get Russias limited “SMO” there.

Again, how’s the… “2023 nafo Crimea beach partyz!!1!!” coming along ?

Crimea is still hardcore Russian. And will be for a long, long time.

Go huck some food at ducks at the park. Enjoy life.

Waiting on Crimea going back soon one day to “Azov” is pointless.

originally posted by: Imhere

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

But it isn't a 'total failure'.
And Russia's invasion can not be described as a success.

Putin's original goal was to Blitzkrieg his way across the whole of Ukraine, that failed miserably.

The FACT that Russia is now caught up in a WWI style war of attrition approximately 18 months after the initial invasion is clear evidence of this.

With all due respect, you seem intent to constantly come up with new ways to either justify Putin's invasion or to paint it as some sort of success story.

You get nothing, zilch, out of this.

Except continuing painting a Gopher grifter like Zelensky over Putin.

Taking a community of countries (nato) to go against 1. Russia.

Says a lot. Taking “nato” a group to against 1.

How’s the preemptive “Crimea beach party liberation” going?

Crimea is set in stone behind the nukes. Which is restraining a group of countries (nato) to go fully in.

How’s Bakhmut?

First off, NATO isn't involved in the fighting, just the equipping, supplying and training, so it's not a community of nations solely against Russia. And evidently you have forgotten the fact that Iran is supplying drones, North Korea munitions, and Belarus has provided an extra jumping off point and bases for firing missiles. Thus, you're being dishonest in your framing of the situation.

Crimea is set in stone behind nukes, huh? Then why isn't the rest of the territory that Russia annexed, including a big chunk of Kherson, behind the same wall? Don't know if you realize this, but Ukraine doesn't have much of a navy (although they did sink the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet) so it is not going to get to Crimea before it breaks through across the Dnipro or through Zaporizhzhia. Your straw man argument concerning Crimea is some severely weak sauce.

As for Bakhmut, it took Wagner 8 months to take it. And what did they get? A destroyed city and tens of thousands of casualties -- and the pissing off of Wagner. How about giving Ukraine until fall to take it back if that is even their plan.

Don't know why the folks who have their noses up way Putin's heinie are so quick to belittle Ukrainian results and make such a big deal out of the slaughter fest that was the 8-month slow-mo advance on Bakhmut by the Wagner group. In case you weren't aware, Bakhmut wasn't much of a strategic objective, but a political one. I'm more interested in how Ukraine is fairing in the south. Admittedly things aren't going rapidly there, but they are making advances, and at rates about 10 times higher than what Wagner did against Bakhmut.

originally posted by: MrInquisitive

originally posted by: Imhere

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

But it isn't a 'total failure'.
And Russia's invasion can not be described as a success.

Putin's original goal was to Blitzkrieg his way across the whole of Ukraine, that failed miserably.

The FACT that Russia is now caught up in a WWI style war of attrition approximately 18 months after the initial invasion is clear evidence of this.

With all due respect, you seem intent to constantly come up with new ways to either justify Putin's invasion or to paint it as some sort of success story.

You get nothing, zilch, out of this.

Except continuing painting a Gopher grifter like Zelensky over Putin.

Taking a community of countries (nato) to go against 1. Russia.

Says a lot. Taking “nato” a group to against 1.

How’s the preemptive “Crimea beach party liberation” going?

Crimea is set in stone behind the nukes. Which is restraining a group of countries (nato) to go fully in.

How’s Bakhmut?

First off, NATO isn't involved in the fighting, just the equipping, supplying and training, so it's not a community of nations solely against Russia. And evidently you have forgotten the fact that Iran is supply drones, North Korea munitions, and Belarus has provided an extra jumping off point and bases for firing missiles. Thus, you're being dishonest in your framing of the situation.

Crimea is set in stone behind nukes, huh? Then why isn't the rest of the territory that Russia annexed, including a big chunk of Kherson, behind the same wall? Don't know if you realize this, but Ukraine doesn't have much of a navy (although they did sink the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet) so it is not going to get to Crimea before it breaks through across the Dnipro or through Zaporizhzhia. Your straw man argument concerning Crimea is some severely weak sauce.

As for Bakhmut, it took Wagner 8 months to take it. And what did they get? A destroyed city and tens of thousands of casualties -- and the pissing off of Wagner. How about giving Ukraine until fall to take it back if that is even their plan.

Don't know why the folks who have their noses up way Putin's heinie are so quick to belittle Ukrainian results and make such a big deal out of the slaughter fest that was the 8-month slow-mo advance on Bakhmut by the Wagner group. In case you werent' aware, Bakhmut wasn't much of a strategic objective, but a political one. I'm more interested in how Ukraine is fairing in the south. Admittedly things aren't going rapidly, but they are making advances, and at rates about 10 times higher than what Wagner did against Bakhmut.

Let’s bet.

No need to get long winded and ramble.

NATO is definitely involved with intelligence.

From the “global hawk” or (s) in the Black Sea to satellite intelligence etc etc.

As for Bakhmut, good luck.

“Azov” will need it. Considering recapturing the “ destroyed” and “rubble” of the city of Bakhmut is low.

You said give it til fall on Bakhmut and it’s rubble being recaptured?

Ok let’s bet.

Everything on the table. Bakhmut and its rubble being completely recaptured within the next 2 months.

You did say…. “let’s give nafi til fall”

lol

a reply to: Imhere

Been hearing about the overwhelming might of Russian forces since the invasion started nearly 18 months ago.
Other than a few Wagner led victories Russian 'might' has been quite the opposite, hence the WWI like trench warfare.

No 'community of nations' going against the mighty Russia, just little old Ukraine. And whilst certainly not winning they are doing a pretty fine job of resisting Russian aggression.
Sure, nations are providing arms to Ukraine - and so they should as long as Ukrainians wish to resist the foreign invaders - but they are not taking a full and active part.

And its a bit hypocritical to say the least when Russia is relying so much on drones from those paragon's of virtue Iran and North Korea in their attacks against the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

Two summers in and still Putin is denied his opportunity to stroll Hitleresque through the streets of Kiev.
His war machine has been shown up to be thoroughly unfit for modern warfare.
His forces are engaged in a resource draining war of attrition.
His country is now a pariah on the world stage.
He's facing increasing discontent back home in Russia with his former allies and political opponents.

It doesn't look good really does it?

But I suspect you're just going to reply with some 'beach party in Crimea' childlike nonsense.

originally posted by: Imhere

originally posted by: MrInquisitive

originally posted by: Imhere

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

But it isn't a 'total failure'.
And Russia's invasion can not be described as a success.

Putin's original goal was to Blitzkrieg his way across the whole of Ukraine, that failed miserably.

The FACT that Russia is now caught up in a WWI style war of attrition approximately 18 months after the initial invasion is clear evidence of this.

With all due respect, you seem intent to constantly come up with new ways to either justify Putin's invasion or to paint it as some sort of success story.

You get nothing, zilch, out of this.

Except continuing painting a Gopher grifter like Zelensky over Putin.

Taking a community of countries (nato) to go against 1. Russia.

Says a lot. Taking “nato” a group to against 1.

How’s the preemptive “Crimea beach party liberation” going?

Crimea is set in stone behind the nukes. Which is restraining a group of countries (nato) to go fully in.

How’s Bakhmut?

First off, NATO isn't involved in the fighting, just the equipping, supplying and training, so it's not a community of nations solely against Russia. And evidently you have forgotten the fact that Iran is supply drones, North Korea munitions, and Belarus has provided an extra jumping off point and bases for firing missiles. Thus, you're being dishonest in your framing of the situation.

Crimea is set in stone behind nukes, huh? Then why isn't the rest of the territory that Russia annexed, including a big chunk of Kherson, behind the same wall? Don't know if you realize this, but Ukraine doesn't have much of a navy (although they did sink the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet) so it is not going to get to Crimea before it breaks through across the Dnipro or through Zaporizhzhia. Your straw man argument concerning Crimea is some severely weak sauce.

As for Bakhmut, it took Wagner 8 months to take it. And what did they get? A destroyed city and tens of thousands of casualties -- and the pissing off of Wagner. How about giving Ukraine until fall to take it back if that is even their plan.

Don't know why the folks who have their noses up way Putin's heinie are so quick to belittle Ukrainian results and make such a big deal out of the slaughter fest that was the 8-month slow-mo advance on Bakhmut by the Wagner group. In case you werent' aware, Bakhmut wasn't much of a strategic objective, but a political one. I'm more interested in how Ukraine is fairing in the south. Admittedly things aren't going rapidly, but they are making advances, and at rates about 10 times higher than what Wagner did against Bakhmut.

Let’s bet.

No need to get long winded and ramble.

NATO is definitely involved with intelligence.

From the “global hawk” or (s) in the Black Sea to satellite intelligence etc etc.

As for Bakhmut, good luck.

“Azov” will need it. Considering recapturing the “ destroyed” and “rubble” of the city of Bakhmut is low.

You said give it til fall on Bakhmut and it’s rubble being recaptured?

Ok let’s bet.

Everything on the table. Bakhmut and its rubble being completely recaptured within the next 2 months.

You did say…. “let’s give nafi til fall”

lol

Sure, NATO is definitely involved in intelligence as well. Forgot to acknowledge that in my prior post, but have done so multiple times in previous posts. That is definitely a key to Ukrainian success.

You're not getting my point. Bakhmut doesn't have much strategic value, mainly it's been a political objective. Yes, the Ukrainians have been mounting a counter offensive in the area, but that seems to have been because multiple military entities were defending it on the Russian side, which made it a softer target -- that and the Russians haven't had so long to build-up defenses there as elsewhere. I think the Ukrainian push there has primarily been to draw down forces off the Russian's southern defenses. I'm making no bets on when Bakhmut is taken back by Ukraine.

The south is the region that matters. If Ukraine hasn't been able to drive to the sea of Azov, or close to it, by the time the fall rains arrive, then yes, their offensive will have failed. However, if a whole lot of Russian artillery has been attrited, to the point that Ukraine has the artillery advantage, I'd still say they will have come out on top.

By all means, let's meet up again in mid October and discuss the summer campaign. Or if one side or the other has a big operational or strategic success before then, we can talk about that then. If you'll notice I am not saying the Ukrainian offensive is going great guns, and that the Russians are on the run. I'm merely disagreeing with those who are demanding that everyone right now acknowledge the failure of the Ukrainian summer offensive. I find that to be a little premature to be discussing at this point.

Don't know why you and others are going on about Bakhmut or the Crimea. Right now it is all about breaking out across the Dnipro or through Zaporizhzhia and cutting the Russian land bridge to Crimea.

arent these wars just engineered to steal tax payers wealth from each country into the hands of the shareholders of the MIC
and at the same time remove fighting age men from the population making the populous less likely to rebel
and the media spin it all so we pick sides and think there is one good vs bad situation
wave flags give speeches so we are all on board

all the while our tax wealth is slowly drained and the young men and women go off to fight and die

same # rinse repeat for decades

originally posted by: MrInquisitive
[

But why do have such a woody for pronouncing the Ukrainian summer offensive being a complete failure? And the Russians have just started some offensive, and you seem to want to ballyhoo it as being the cat's pajama after only a couple of days. Seems a bit of a double standard on your part.

Because unlike the blind parrot wannabee Zelenskiy fanboys and gals I actually sit in the middle of this inter Oligarchy mafia war and judge the reality on the ground on that basis.

Right now Russia has taken the best part of Ukraine, 40,000 square miles of the crucial industrial zones plus access to Black sea ports. This area is the equivalent to the United Kingdom. Russia continues to control this region and the way things are going looks set to keep it, even with the incredible injection from outside NATO involvement of weaponry, training and effective military direction.

When things change on the ground I will accept the much vaunted Ukrainian offensive to be a success. I'm a fair chap and accept reality on the ground.

Right now at this moment in time the offensive is proving to be a monumental waste of NATO resources and Slavic gun fodder life.

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
Right now at this moment in time the offensive is proving to be a monumental waste of NATO resources and Slavic gun fodder life.

You don't know that, though, do you. None of us actually know what's going on in detail. The strategy that Ukraine is pursuing is known to them, and (sadly) I am not on their mailing list, and nor are you.

Some people seem to think that an offensive must result in the immediate capture of ground, but perhaps the strategy is a bit more nuanced and subtle. A bit less concerned with what onlookers want to see.

The "Slavic gun fodder" is sadly the result of Russian aggression.

IMO only direct US military intervention can tip the balance in Ukraine's favor. Back in WW1 and WW2 Allies weren't able to break through German lines until 1917 and 1942 when the US entered the war on the Allies side.

Attack on Odesa and Mykolaiv ports was heavy last night again.

twitter.com...

twitter.com...

a reply to: Imhere

"How’s Bakhmut?"

Totally destroyed. It's a pile of rubble.

Happy with that?

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
Right now at this moment in time the offensive is proving to be a monumental waste of NATO resources and Slavic gun fodder life.

You don't know that, though, do you. None of us actually know what's going on in detail. The strategy that Ukraine is pursuing is known to them, and (sadly) I am not on their mailing list, and nor are you.

What total nonsense. One can access the day to day front lines from many sources and the fact of the matter is this......

Ukraine's offensive right now is going absolutely nowhere and is an abject failure even when its military is supplied, trained and directed by various outside influences, most notable among them being NATO.

Even the Ukrainian ministers have spoken on numerous occasions about how the much vaunted offensive is progressing much slower than they anticipated. Heaven's aloud Paraphi, it's there in front of view in black and white and you still can't see it. Ukraine's offensive is failing and going effectively nowhere. Maybe it's time to judge evidence from multiple world wide sources rather than clinging to your British government directed MSM BS you've been brain washed on since the beginning of your state mandated 'education'

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
What total nonsense. One can access the day to day front lines from many sources and the fact of the matter is this......

As I said. You don't know what is going on. Even on a day-to-day level, you have no real clue. I say this regardless of your "many sources" and all that. For all I know you are Putin's mistress, or toyboy, and he tells you all his little fantasies. You may well be the New Enlightened, but somehow I doubt it. You are just hanging off the same-old-same-old.

You would like to think Ukraine is a failure, but you don't know whether that is a lucky guess, or just wishful thinking.

Either way, Russian cannot escape from the magnitude of their crimes in executing this unnecessary war.