Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

I say good luck with this.

Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than breaking it up but seeks to separate Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin from Wagner leadership and forces.

Putin might even threaten them with death, but I don't think he can pull them away from Prigozhin. I would think it is all normal Russian BS talk.

17 July Update

Russian authorities accused Ukrainian special services of conducting an unmanned surface vehicle strike against the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea on the morning of July 17. Footage of the aftermath shows that one Kerch Strait Bridge road span had collapsed and another span suffered damage but remains intact.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front over the backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border on July 17. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces have launched active offensive operations and advanced in the Kupyansk area (between northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and northwestern Luhansk Oblast) in the past several days.

More at URL above.

Also: Russian drone and missile strikes against Ukraine, particularly Odesa and Mykolaiv.

Cheers

Perhaps this is a normal thing to say in Russia or maybe Putin just did a Biden , at a meeting with regional governor of Irkutsk Oblast the governor told the Tsar of the "Heros of Russia" or dead servicemen from the region , according to a transcript of the meeting Putin replied "Say hello to all of them."

Does this mean Mr Kobzev should stay away from windows and tea !

In a transcript published on the Kremlin's website, Mr Kobzev said: "We have 192 citizens of Irkutsk awarded with state awards - orders, medals.

"Of these, the youngest, Hero of Russia, is Private Eduard Dyakonov, who died in Mariupol in March last year. He covered a grenade with his body, thereby saving his fellow soldiers.

"This is very valuable for us, for us they are all heroes, they are in our memory, in our hearts."

According to the transcript, Mr Putin replied: "Say hello to all of them."
news.sky.com...

If I were Mr Kobzev I'd keep my feet on the ground and avoid the stairs.

a reply to: gortex
Your link doesn't contain what you quoted.
So 192 medals were mentioned, one apparently awarded posthumously. How many of the other 191 medals were awarded to the living and how many to the dead? That information isn't provided in your quote, wherever it came from, but it would be necessary to know, in order to evaluate what Putin said.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Your link doesn't contain what you quoted.

Yes it does , it's a live page if you click "Putin says hello to fallen soldiers" you will find the portion I quoted.

but it would be necessary to know, in order to evaluate what Putin said.

The transcript is posted on the Kremlin site , google Mr Kobzev and it's the first result.

This is some interesting combat footage, censored for youtube. The youtube description also contains a link to the uncensored version.

It looks like a Russian artillery shell strikes near enough to a Ukraine trench to injure one of the Ukraine soldiers. Another soldier proclaims they will go get revenge.

Ukraine uses drones to identify the Russians in the Russian held trench, and conduct an assault. Contrary to the often quoted figure that attacking forces can have 3 times the losses of defending forces, the Ukrainians don't seem to have a single loss in this assault, all of the casualties are Russians. This unexpected result is probably due to the poor training and lack of motivation of the Russian soldiers, who at one point seem to be firing wildly instead of at their opponent attacking them. Ukraine wouldn't have had this kind of success attacking experienced Wagner soldiers who would actually shoot back, in the right direction to cause Ukraine losses. So, I can see why Ukraine is so glad Wagner left, it seems not easy, but less difficult to fight the inexperienced soldiers, than the experienced soldiers.

TERRA unit: The flank of Bakhmut. Infantry battle in the trenches.


Some Russians try to run away, most of them don't make it.
Some Russians put down their guns and take off their armor and walk out with hands up; they are allowed to surrender, and are taken as POWs. But they aren't allowed to run away, I only saw one Russian who ran away who apparently got lucky and made it.

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: Arbitrageur

Your link doesn't contain what you quoted.

Yes it does , it's a live page if you click "Putin says hello to fallen soldiers" you will find the portion I quoted.

Thanks for the instruction but when I click that link it just reloads the same page. However I found another story which explains my concern (not that I like this source but it's the only working link I could find). And not that I want to defend Putin, I hate the man, but I don't think the context is understood because not everyone getting medals was dead.

Putin Asks Governor to Tell Dead Troops He Said ‘Hello’

After discussing social and economic issues, Kobzev brought up troops deployed from the region and praised them for their “bravery,” noting that 192 local troops had received state awards for their supposed heroics, among them some who were killed.

So SOME of the medal recipients were killed, which implies not all. Why couldn't Putin have been asking to say hello to those who were still alive and not killed?

With little to no progress for a year both sides the war looks like it's going to be a long drawn out affair. The freezing weather is soon to return literally adding to the feeling that we are going to be stuck with a frozen conflict, just what Putin wants.............................................

"Ukraine's counter-offensive far from a failure - but will be 'long and bloody', says top US general
Ukraine's counter-offensive is far from a failure - but the fight ahead will be "long and bloody", the US's most senior general has said.

"It is far from a failure... I think that it's way too early to make that kind of call," General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said.

"I think there's a lot of fighting left to go and I'll stay with what we said before: This is going to be long. It's going be hard. It's going to be bloody." news.sky.com... ddon-removed-from-post-intel-official-says-12541713

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Fairly sure that freezing weather will not favour either side?

Why might it suit Putin?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Fairly sure that freezing weather will not favour either side?

Why might it suit Putin?

Putin likes frozen conflicts. He creates them all over the FSU. It keeps NATO out and brings in Russian influence and military.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

How so?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Moldova frozen conflict Russian military in. Georgia too, Nagorna Karabackh add that one also, Ruskies in. Same in the central Asia region. Frozen conflicts. Russian military in. Frozen conflicts are all over the FSU and every one of them keeps NATO out and Russia in.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Seems mid July is a bit early to be talking about freezing weather coming back to the war theater. Besides which, it is the rainy/muddy weather that brings offensive operations to a halt. The problem last winter was that there never was any long cold spell to freeze things over good, which would allow for offensive operations.

18 July Update

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian retaliatory strikes hit port infrastructure in Odesa City and to have destroyed Ukrainian fuel storage facilities holding a combined 70 thousand tons of fuel near Odesa and Mykolaiv cities. Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down all six Russian Kaliber missiles and 31 of 36 Shahed 131/136 drones targeting these areas, but that falling missile fragments damaged port infrastructure and a residential area in Odesa.

The July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine. Footage and imagery published on July 17 and 18 show extensive traffic jams and accidents reportedly on the E58 Mariupol-Melitopol-Kherson City highway – Russia’s current main logistics line connecting Russia to southern Ukraine – at various points between Mariupol and Berdyansk, and in Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, southwest of Kreminna, and in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas and made limited territorial gains in all sectors.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations around Bakhmut and advanced north of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly made limited advances.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia oblast area and recently made limited advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
17 July Update

Russian authorities accused Ukrainian special services of conducting an unmanned surface vehicle strike against the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea on the morning of July 17. Footage of the aftermath shows that one Kerch Strait Bridge road span had collapsed and another span suffered damage but remains intact.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front over the backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border on July 17. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces have launched active offensive operations and advanced in the Kupyansk area (between northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and northwestern Luhansk Oblast) in the past several days.

More at URL above.

Also: Russian drone and missile strikes against Ukraine, particularly Odesa and Mykolaiv.

Cheers

Odessa is getting hit hard according to Twitter/ CNN

originally posted by: MrInquisitive
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Seems mid July is a bit early to be talking about freezing weather coming back to the war theater.

Not at all. The winter is just around the corner here in Europe. Everything will grind to a halt very soon as the land goes into retreat.

The spring offensive by Ukraine has proved to be a total failure, even when it has been directed and supplied by the western PTB. Russia cleverly retreated to defensive positions and created a concrete wall of biblical proportions to prevent any intrusion by the Ukrainian's into the annexed territories.

Add to this stalemate the massing of over 100,000 Russian forces in the east right now massing for a big push into Kharhov. Maybe that's where the fake mutiny Wagner forces actually redeployed to ready for a full on Russian nvasion into the heartland of Ukraine in the north and east ......................

"Russia has assembled more than 100,000 soldiers in the Kupyansk area, Ukrainian official says"

"Russa has concentrated more than 100,000 soldiers in the Kupyansk area to try and break Kyiv’s defenses, Serhii Cherevatyi, Ukrainian Deputy Commander for Strategic Communications of the Eastern Military Grouping, said on Monday.

“The enemy has concentrated a very powerful grouping on the Lyman-Kupyansk direction, with over 100,000 personnel, over 900 tanks, and over 370 MLRS,” Cherevatyi said. “The enemy deployed airborne units, the best motorised infantry units there. As additional support, there are the combat army reserve, territorial troops, Storm-Z companies.”
He added Russian forces are "putting everything into breaking through our defense."

edition.cnn.com...

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Whilst maybe not being a spectacular success I'd hardly call the Ukrainian offensive a total failure.
They've halted Russian advances and if anything have got them somewhat on the back foot.
And let's be honest, the Russian forces performance has hardly been impressive has it? What 'successes' they had were largely down to Wagner who are now more or less absent and redundant, at least for the time being.

100,000 Armed Russians amassing on the Ukraine border?
Sort of heard it all before. They'll still face the same old problems; poorly trained and motivated troops, incompetent and outdated leadership, corruption, poor logistics and supply etc.

Anyone who thinks this invasion has been anything but an unmitigated disaster for Russia must be delusional in one way or another.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: ufoorbhunter


Anyone who thinks this invasion has been anything but an unmitigated disaster for Russia must be delusional in one way or another.

Right now Russia has annexed a land region something close to that of the United Kingdom. In addition to which those lands are the ancient Novo Russia developed over the centuries by Russia's Czars. To Russian's Putin has done the incredible and taken back the heartland of New Russia which encompasses the most important zones of industry and coastline onto the Black Sea. We now face yet another frozen conflict which suits Moscow. In the game of chess Russia is winning and winning well. An additional 40,000 square miles

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
With little to no progress for a year both sides the war looks like it's going to be a long drawn out affair. The freezing weather is soon to return literally adding to the feeling that we are going to be stuck with a frozen conflict, just what Putin wants.............................................

Frozen by itself implies something about temperature, but using the expression "frozen conflict" has a totally different meaning that has nothing to do with temperature. You gave an example of Moldova as a "frozen conflict", which is sort of close, but technically it's Transnistria that's in the frozen conflict, since most countries recognize it as part of Moldova but it's occupied by Russian forces. There's no shooting in Transnistria, and it's just as much a "frozen conflict" in the hottest days of summer as it is in the coldest days of winter.

I don't see the Ukraine war being a frozen conflict anytime soon, because I expect Ukraine will be shooting back for years, trying to re-take their territory as long as they can.

In international relations, a frozen conflict is a situation in which active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability.

I predict there will still be shooting in Ukraine this winter, meaning it won't feel anything like a "frozen conflict" in the context of international relations.

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
To Russian's Putin has done the incredible and taken back the heartland of New Russia which encompasses the most important zones of industry and coastline onto the Black Sea. We now face yet another frozen conflict which suits Moscow. In the game of chess Russia is winning and winning well. An additional 40,000 square miles

Again, I wouldn't call it a frozen conflict until the shooting stops, which won't be anytime soon. Also, Ukraine has been clawing back some of its territory, so even the front lines are not frozen.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

A frozen conflict is a frozen conflict in every sense you can imagine and when dealing with the Russian's that's just the way they like it frozen