Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: Irishhaf
a reply to: MrInquisitive

You love to stick words into people's mouths huh.

Cluster munitions enter our aid into a very murky area, thats why I dont like it.

I have issues with the volume of stuff going into ukraine in part because a huge chunk of it requires a particular skill set to keep it functional.

Ukarine has already doubled its military equipment size plus a bit from recovered equipment as Russia fell back, seems to me fixing and getting it fixed and back into the fight would get you a faster turnaround vs pulling people off the line to train them up from scratch on equipment they have little to no clue on.

I also take issue with the fact that this clown show administration appears to be dragging their feet on replacing everything we are sending. Key things like Javelins and artillery shells, all the while talking tough against china, if you are going to poke a bear you should make certain that you have the supply to back it up.

I didn't stick words into your mouth. I asked you a question: are you against the lend lease the US did in WWI? It's an apt analogy with the US's and other NATO's countries' aid to Ukraine currently.

No, the Franken-army that the Ukraine is building up is not the most efficient or best way of doing things, but what would you suggest instead? NATO can't supply Ukraine with much in the way of Russian equipment; most of that has already been sent, and Bulgaria seems to be the main supplier now of Russian-weapon ammunition. I think the Abrams tank gifting doesn't make sense logistically, but had to be done for diplomatic reasons, i.e. to get Germany to ok the provisioning of Leopard tanks.

Ukraine needed and still needs more than just captured Russian equipment; that alone isn't enough. And in the long run Ukraine needs to move over to western equipment anyway, so their soldiers need to learn how to use and service. From what I understand, much of the western armored vehicles provide better protection than their Russian counterparts, so even if a vehicle is hit, the crew is more likely to survive in a western vehicle (with the exception of the French wheeled light tank), and keeping trained crews alive is critical.

From what I read, it isn't that the US is dragging its feet on replacing ammunition and certain weapon systems, but that the production capacity isn't there, unless the US wants to make larger and longer term contracts for far more such equipment. The US is trying to get S. Korea and Japan to sell it ammunition, which it can then send to Ukraine. My understanding is that the US has held onto about 2/3's of its ammunition and weapon systems such as the Javelin, and that the US and its military contractors are working on newer versions of the Javelin.

As far as a conflict with China goes, it wouldn't be much of a land war for the US. It's about interdicting the Chinese navy and invasion fleet. To that end there is the AUKUS nuclear submarine program that is a joint venture between Australia, the UK and the US to provide Australia with nuclear attack submarines -- not nuclear armed. I imagine the US, Taiwan and likely Japan are also all developing all kinds of devilish marine drones to take out ships. All three countries have significant anti-ship missile systems as well, and the US has its carriers, and air force based in Japan and the Philippines. I don't think anyone wants to see US forces landing in China, so there isn't a big need for ground-based forces in the region.

And the US's need to have a stockpile of equipment in Europe or ready for a European war is being reduced every day by the war in Ukraine.

Russia and to a lesser extent Ukraine have already been using cluster munitions. The civilians are no longer living on the front lines, so undetonated ordinance lobbed by Ukraine is not a major factor. What is a major factor are all the land mines the Russians have laid, including those that have now been washed downstream by the dam destruction.

One particular use for cluster munitions is counter battery fire, i.e. taking out the enemy's artillery. However, another use for them is taking the shells apart and using the 88 individual explosive charges in conjunctions with drones. Fragments from these charges can go through 4 cm of armor, which is the thickness of the roof of a T-62 turret.

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: MrInquisitive
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Wonder what the Russians will be doing to replace the 86'd Wagner mercenaries in their foreign adventures in Africa and Syria? And cutting the remainder's salaries? That won't likely end well.

Well they will give them 3 options. Join the russian military,be exiled from russia, or fall from a window.

Well on that note, I was just thinking about the fact that even though the Wagner troops are supposedly being the option of going home, all Russian men of military age who have had military experience are being called up, so it must be a Catch-22 for them, i.e. your point exactly.

9 July Update

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9. Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces successfully continue to advance in the Bakhmut direction.

US President Joe Biden stated that Ukraine cannot join NATO until Russia’s war in Ukraine is over. Biden told CNN on July 9 that it is premature to vote on Ukraine’s NATO membership and that the alliance should “lay out a rational path for Ukraine to be able to qualify to be able to get into NATO.”

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: dlbott
a reply to: MrInquisitive

It is interesting ppl believe the Russian disinfo whores. Russia can't do the things it does without the Wagner group or those like them. And you don't make six hundred armed to teeth men fo anything lol.

All of whom knew what was happening lol. The majority just signed new contracts or just left or moved to other groups. Wagner, like Russian troops operates top down. Meaning, you take out officers and the rest are ineffectual.

Russia has problem, most of their regular army personnel are not in for what the Wagner group is doing. Killing, raping, torture etc of civilian population.

There is a very large desertion and defection happening that is not reported.

But here bottom line, if we had given Ukraine NATO membership and the weapons, tanks, planes, chopper's etc we promised years ago when they ousted corrupt Russian's then the invasion would not have happened. But like always we hung them out to dry. Kinda reminds me of the Kurds, without whom we could not have won as easily. I am surprised anyone still partners with us lol.

There are actually a fairly large number of PMC's in Russia, so a lot of the Wagner troops could likely go to some of these, and avoid joining the Russian army and ending up back in Ukraine.

It's easy in hindsight to say that the west should've given more military aid and backing to Ukraine earlier on, but it wasn't politically feasible. As for NATO membership, there are a number of hurdles to that, including economic and political reform, but the two big ones are that all NATO countries would have to agree to it, and the country in question can't have any ongoing border disputes, the latter ruling Ukraine out. Neither the Obama or Trump administrations did much for Ukraine, nor did other NATO nations. But was there the political will to do so at the time? Doesn't seem like it was the case.

The problem goes back to how Europe relied on Russia for energy, and the UK did not make a big enough deal out of the instances when Russia used chemical weapon agents and radioisotopes to kill or attempt to kill former Russian agents who fled to the UK. Russia should've been made a pariah country at this time, and economic sanctions put into place. But who's going to do that over the lives of a handful of people? The west and Ukraine, practically speaking, need to be satisfied that the response by the US and NATO has been as strong as it has been since the large-scale invasion last year.

originally posted by: MrInquisitive
The problem goes back to how Europe relied on Russia for energy, and the UK did not make a big enough deal out of the instances when Russia used chemical weapon agents and radioisotopes to kill or attempt to kill former Russian agents who fled to the UK.

You'll find the UK made a big deal over the use of radioactive and nerve agents to assassinate people in the UK. It's why Russia hates the UK so much.

Additionally, the UK has been a constant thorn in Russia's side over Crimea, and led the retraining and rearming of Ukraine prior to the 2022 Russian invasion. Germany attempted to prevent arms to Ukraine by stopping UK planes overflying Germany, such was their fear of upsetting the gravy train. The UK got Russia all in a grumble over freedom of navigation, by sailing a warship through Ukrainian territorial waters near Crimea. No other Western navy had such balls.

The European energy problem was not all European countries, but some key players in the EU, notably Germany, compromised their willingness and ability to act through their addiction to cheap gas from Russia.

originally posted by: MrInquisitive

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: MrInquisitive
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Wonder what the Russians will be doing to replace the 86'd Wagner mercenaries in their foreign adventures in Africa and Syria? And cutting the remainder's salaries? That won't likely end well.

Well they will give them 3 options. Join the russian military,be exiled from russia, or fall from a window.

Well on that note, I was just thinking about the fact that even though the Wagner troops are supposedly being the option of going home, all Russian men of military age who have had military experience are being called up, so it must be a Catch-22 for them, i.e. your point exactly.

Dont you just love when a choice is so easy to make? lol. Its either take a pay cut,exile or death.Personally Id take my money and live elsewhere.screw the motherland.

Heard on the news that Wagner has agreed to fight for Russia.

Russia has claimed that Ukraine is now using Cold War-era S-200 long-range surface-to-air missiles — known to NATO as SA-5 Gammon — to attack land targets in its rear areas and in Russia itself. A video from one particular claimed strike appears to show a missile that looks very similar to an S-200 diving almost vertically onto a target, supposedly in Bryansk Oblast, in western Russia, a region that borders Ukraine.

Here

Cheers

a reply to: MrInquisitive

Word salad...

Since it should be obvious...

I think Europe should handle its own stuff for once as we have plenty on our plate at home, for over a hundred years we have been drawn into conflicts that have nothing to do with us caused by countries in europe.

in my lifetime we have added 32 trillion in debt, devalued the dollar, opened the borders defunded police, in short we are a train wreck, we really need to focus on us.

Add in the idiot in chief that gets on national television and says we are running out of 155 munitions while at the same time trying to act tough risking a conflict with China.

I wish ukraine the best of luck but at the end of the day they will still lose their country if not to russia then blackrock during "rebuild".

Europe put off playing soldier for decades and we ate the cost, welp credit cards are maxed out europe needs to fish or cut bait now.

10 July Update

Ukrainian officials stated on July 10 that Ukrainian forces have fire control over Bakhmut and Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) around the city. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces have taken control of unspecified heights around Bakhmut, allowing Ukrainian forces to establish fire control over Bakhmut itself. Ukrainian officials have recently signaled that Ukraine seeks to trap Russian forces within the city, and it appears that Ukrainian operations in the Bakhmut area in recent days have been intended to slowly envelop Russian troops in Bakhmut and on its flanks.

The Kremlin and Western intelligence officials reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin on June 29 (and/or July 1) following Wagner’s armed rebellion on June 24.

More at URL above.

Also: A captain of a Russian missile submarine was gunned down in Krasnodar. While under his command, the submarine had launched missile strikes against Ukraine. Appears the Ukrainians have some reach inside Russia itself.

Cheers

originally posted by: Nexttimemaybe
Heard on the news that Wagner has agreed to fight for Russia.

more like or else.

a reply to: Irishhaf

I think Europe should handle its own stuff for once as we have plenty on our plate at home,.....

Echoes of Charles Lindbergh et al....and look where that got you.

American Isolationism has never worked out well for the USA or the rest of the world.

.... for over a hundred years we have been drawn into conflicts that have nothing to do with us caused by countries in europe.

Oh come on; WWI was a complete # show for everyone concerned and even then you didn't join in until 3 years after everyone else.
WWII?
I have no intention of disrespecting the many brave American servicemen who fought in that war but please; American Isolationists - and open Nazi apologists, sympathisers and supporters - were more than happy with the US profiteering from US neutrality and arming and supplying BOTH sides. Men like Henry Ford, Prescott Bush, JP Morgan, Jack Kennedy etc made billions from it.
That was until American policies made Japan attack the US and Germany subsequently felt obligated to declare war on the USA.

Yes, once its hand was forced there can be no denying the US committed 100% and many, many US Armed Forces paid the ultimate sacrifice - for which I for one will be eternally grateful. But let's stop trying to kid everyone that the US was the Knight in Shining Armour fighting to defend Freedom and Democracy from the evil Empires.

And post-WWII the USA has gone on to spread its influence around the globe and no insult intended but I think everyone agrees has been the source and origin of more wars than any other nation.
And in those wars America has been supported - sometimes blindly - by various European nations.

It hasn't been all a one-way street - the USA hasn't benefited enormously from its relationship with Europe and its other allies.

Some times in life we all have to simply do what is right, show a pair balls and stand up against bullies.
History is strewn with examples of where Appeasement and Isolationism simply didn't work.

Sure, run home crying 'It's not our fight' but know this; if you do there is a very good chance that at some point in the future that fight will come to your door.....and who's going to be left to able to help you?

Sure, you have your domestic problems - haven't we all?
It doesn't absolve of us of our responsibility to do the right thing.

I have no intention of derailing this thread - essential daily reading for many of us - nor would I like this to be seen as some sort of anti-US post.
The world is becoming an ever-increasingly small place and hiding behind our own borders is no longer a realistic option.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Doesnt surprise me in the least. Ukraine was the backbone of soviet manufacturing. They are even currently making cruise missiles in a joint effort with Poland something Russia is incapable of doing currently due to the lack of microprocessors. Ukraine has even ramped up production of artillery shells keep in mind Russia is buying theirs from Iran because their manufacturing has been destroyed. The longer this goes on the stronger Ukraine gets And it wouldnt surprise me if they started manufacturing nukes they have the ability and the expertise needed. This is why I think Putin messed up he created a hostile country that is 450 Km from Moscow close enough that they could fly drones there. Russia cant destroy Ukraine its not going to happen and how long before you think they decide they need nukes too? Ukraine has the ability just doesnt have the reactors however a deal with Saudi Arabia and then they do. Saudi Arabia wants to start manufacturing nukes because they believe Iran is about to. The saudis are missing the technical know how but with the right deal i can see Ukraine stepping in to help.

Lets hope this doesnt happen but its not out of the realm of possibility the only thing stoping this is fear of loss of support by the west.

11 July Update

Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius and to threaten the Black Sea grain deal. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 26 of the 28 Russian Shahed 131 and 136 drones launched from the Primorsk-Akhtarsk (Krasnodar Krai) direction.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 11 and made gains in some areas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and Berdyansk directions (Zaporizhia Oblast-Donetsk Oblast border area), and Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations around Bakhmut.

A Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike reportedly killed Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov at the command post of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian sources reported Tsokov’s death on July 11, and social media users reported that Tsokov died in a strike on a local hotel according to preliminary information.

An unknown actor killed the Krasnodar City Deputy Head for Mobilization, Captain Stanislav Rzhitsky, on July 10. Russian media reported that an unknown person shot Rzhitsky several times in Krasnodar and then fled the scene.

More at URL above.

Also, NATO summit meeting in Vilnius.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Ukraine , while not a member of Nato , Zelensky is going to "crash" the meeting .....

a reply to: firerescue


He was invited to the conference

VILNIUS, Lithuania — President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine praised NATO on Wednesday for offering his nation a path to membership after the war with Russia is over, seeking to move past differences over the lack of a clear timeline as allied leaders sought to show unity at a major summit. A day after NATO’s 31 members confirmed eventual membership for Ukraine, but with no firm time frame, Mr. Zelensky was expected to meet with President Biden and join discussions with other leaders as the alliance concludes a two-day summit in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius.

www.nytimes.com...

Not a big fan of Ben Wallace and his meddling in the affairs of others yet today he sort of made sense,.................

"The UK is not an "Amazon" delivery service for weapons to Ukraine and Kyiv might be wise to let its supporters see gratitude", Britain's defence secretary has said.

In a blunt intervention, Ben Wallace said his "counsel" to the Ukrainians was to keep in mind that they need to persuade some doubting politicians in Washington and other capitals that the tens of billions of pounds they are spending on military aid to their country for its war with Russia is worthwhile."

Another Russian General is killed in the Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk...

Its being widely reported on Telegram channels and Russian TV that Lt Gen Oleg Tsoko has been killed,

Lt Gen Oleg Tsokov is said to have died in a strike on a hotel housing Russian military commanders in Berdyansk, on Ukraine's occupied southern coast.

Russia's defence ministry has not officially confirmed his death. But it was widely announced by Russian war channels on the Telegram messaging app.

TV host Olga Skabeyeva said "absolutely all media" were reporting it.

Lt Gen Tsokov was deputy commander of Russia's southern military district. Ms Skabeyeva who presents a talk show on the state-run Rossiya-1 channel said he was killed by a UK-supplied Storm Shadow missile.

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: MrInquisitive
The problem goes back to how Europe relied on Russia for energy, and the UK did not make a big enough deal out of the instances when Russia used chemical weapon agents and radioisotopes to kill or attempt to kill former Russian agents who fled to the UK.

You'll find the UK made a big deal over the use of radioactive and nerve agents to assassinate people in the UK. It's why Russia hates the UK so much.

Additionally, the UK has been a constant thorn in Russia's side over Crimea, and led the retraining and rearming of Ukraine prior to the 2022 Russian invasion. Germany attempted to prevent arms to Ukraine by stopping UK planes overflying Germany, such was their fear of upsetting the gravy train. The UK got Russia all in a grumble over freedom of navigation, by sailing a warship through Ukrainian territorial waters near Crimea. No other Western navy had such balls.

The European energy problem was not all European countries, but some key players in the EU, notably Germany, compromised their willingness and ability to act through their addiction to cheap gas from Russia.

I know the UK protested the attacks on individuals there by Russia, and that the EU sanctioned for individuals in the FSB, but that was about it. Why didn't the UK establish some economic sanctions against Russia itself? Why didn't it invoke Article 5 of NATO for the attacks? I acknowledge that there probably wasn't the support by the rest of Europe and the US, but if the UK made an even bigger deal out of it, more might have been done.

Yes, Germany was the major European power in thrall to Russian energy, but plenty of other European countries were too.

In no way am I criticizing what the UK has done since the invasion. I am quite aware of the help and aid it has been giving Ukraine. My point is if the UK had insisted upon a harder line back in 2019 or earlier when Russia was conducting assassination attempts in the UK, there might have been more political will to resist Russia and to support Ukraine before the full-on invasion in 2022.

originally posted by: Irishhaf
a reply to: MrInquisitive

Word salad...

Since it should be obvious...

I think Europe should handle its own stuff for once as we have plenty on our plate at home, for over a hundred years we have been drawn into conflicts that have nothing to do with us caused by countries in europe.

in my lifetime we have added 32 trillion in debt, devalued the dollar, opened the borders defunded police, in short we are a train wreck, we really need to focus on us.

Add in the idiot in chief that gets on national television and says we are running out of 155 munitions while at the same time trying to act tough risking a conflict with China.

I wish ukraine the best of luck but at the end of the day they will still lose their country if not to russia then blackrock during "rebuild".

Europe put off playing soldier for decades and we ate the cost, welp credit cards are maxed out europe needs to fish or cut bait now.

Your definition of word salad evidently is just not wanting to address the matters I brought up. You're really claiming that my paragraphs were "confused or unintelligible mixture of seemingly random words and phrases"? Give me even one example from my post.

For over a hundred years the US has been drawn into conflicts having nothing to do with the US and caused by Europe? Ever hear of WWII? How did the US get into it? Japan bombed Pearl Harbor and invaded the Philippines, a US protectorate, and a few days later Germany declared war on the US. Germany in both WWI and WWII was sinking US shipping before hostilities were formalized. Seems that some country militarily interfering with US foreign trade does have to do with US interests, as does the attack upon US bases and territories.

If the last 110 years has shown us anything, it is that the US has significant interest in a stable and peaceful Europe, which has always been a great trading partner with the US, and that we need foreign alliances to protect our interests. Should Europe pay a bigger share of the burden for its defense? Absolutely. It appear that it is now beginning to do so on account of Russian aggression. I would, in any case, prefer that the US remains engaged in Europe in order to prevent any destabilization that would cause the US to have to become involved in a massive conflict there. Imagine if the UK, France and the US had joined together to shut down Hitler in the mid to late 30's, rather than wait until Germany brought war to Europe. It would not have been such a catastrophic affair.


As for your claim that the dollar has been devalued in your lifetime, that is going to have something to do with outside forces, such as OPEC. But in the twelve years, the dollar has been on the rise. To wit, see the chart at this site:

U.S. Dollar Index - 43 Year Historical Chart

And provide us some evidence that the police have been defunded. That was a rallying cry by the far left, but I have seen no evidence of it occurring.

No, you're not making word salad, just BS stew.