Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Kenzo

Good job I don't work in Salisbury any more, too.

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: Oldcarpy2


They are quite creative there....i bet they will invent even more exotic ways than toad in future

Friendly advise...dont fly to Moscow lol

Sucked into jet engine,toilet alligator.

9 April Update

🟉 Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

🟉 Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in and around Bakhmut, and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. Russian forces likely made marginal gains in southern Bakhmut on April 9.

🟉 A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a reconnaissance-in-force operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Russians flatten Bakhmut...

Russians in Bakhmut adopt "Syrian" tactics of scorched earth

a reply to: Kenzo

... Russian diplomacy.

Cheers

So I was watching a few video's last night and came across this one...



And after reading the link that Carpy provided about the dude counting Wagner graves, I thought I'd explain how I come up with my estimates on losses/casualties. We had that other poster who made the ridiculous claim of it was 9 or 10 to 1, Ukrainian vs Russian losses. And never provided a source except, its on the internet bro. lol.

One of the sources I follow to keep track of losses on the Russian side is the Mediazona/BBC collab that tracks publicly available deaths attributed to the war. The dude in Carpy's BBC link was part of that.

zona-media.translate.goog...

The methodology is pretty rigorous for open source material and they only update every couple of weeks. Latest totals is 19688. I use that as the very bottom floor and the most conservative number for # of dead. I use the Ukrainian official numbers as the absolute upper ceiling, last numbers being around 180K. And remember, Mediazona/BBC don't count LPR/DPR losses as well.

So I take those two numbers and split it down the middle, leaving about 100K dead. Then taking a conservative estimate of 1:1 WIA/KIA, puts Russian casualties at around 200K. And you can see if you use the standard approximation of 3:1 WIA/KIA, you get 400K casualties.

The Ukrainian numbers are much harder estimate as they don't publicly release any numbers and according to the Russian MoD, they have killed the entire population of Ukraine, lol. There are some very conservative ways to estimate those #'s and the number I come up with is usually around 70 K KIA and about 250K WIA but tbh, I have zero confidence in those numbers.

ETA: I don't agree with Nielsens claim that Russia is running out of manpower but I do agree with they have a manpower problem. Same as when you hear people saying Russia is running out of X, whatever that is. It's BS but there is truth in it insomuch as they are having problems replacing losses of equipment. There was the story about the Russian's are going to produce 1500 T-90's this year. Again, all I can do is lol at that.

Medvedev dancing.....with just men maybe he likes men ?


Medvedev is again back on the bottle and ranting online about the need for Russia to destroy Ukraine as a nation.


Whats that music ?

a reply to: GAOTU789

Then taking a conservative estimate of 1:1 WIA/KIA, puts Russian casualties at around 200K.

Right. The difficulty is knowing how effective Russian (or Ukrainian) field medical services are.

Western armies have gotten good at preventing unnecessary deaths and being able to rapidly evacuate wounded personnel. My guess is that Russia is not up to Western par in that regard. So, where a western army might have a 3:1 WIA:KIA ratio, it may well be 1:1 for the Russians because more Russian wounded die before they can receive necessary treatment. Again, that tells us little about absolute numbers of dead and wounded.

I tend to credit the higher estimates because my read of the Russian leadership is that, when Ukraine manifested credible resistance, the Russian leadership became desperate to achieve a swift victory ... no matter the casualties. Following that orientation, the casualties have continued to be high because throwing men at the Ukrainians hasn't broken their resistance, either.

Time may tell, or it may become a dark secret held for many years.

Cheers

10 April Update

* Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

* Russian forces continued to make territorial gains in and around Bakhmut, and continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Looks like the Russian's have been correct all along that they are fighting NATO......................

"Up to 50 UK special forces present in Ukraine this year, US leak suggests

Leaked US military documents indicate that the UK has deployed as many as 50 special forces to Ukraine.

The documents suggest that more than half of the western special forces personnel present in Ukraine between February and March this year may have been British.

It is unclear what activities the special forces may have been engaged in or whether the numbers of personnel have been maintained at this level.

The UK’s elite military forces, whose activities are normally shrouded in secrecy, comprise multiple units including the Special Air Service (SAS)." www.theguardian.com...

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

To be fair, I think most people thought that some Special Forces were in Ukraine in advisory and training capacities.

I sincerely hope they aren't engaging in armed conflict with Russian forces.....but I suspect that's the way many will spin it regardless.

a reply to: Freeborn

Wouldn't surprise one bit if ours, plus the French and Yankee special forces were taking on the Russian's. I'd bet anything on it.

a reply to: Freeborn

Maybe, maybe, 50 UK Special Forces personnel might be in Ukraine, probably in training and advisory roles.

Maybe not, but it's doubtful they are actually in any combat role.

Even if they are, that hardly equates to Russia "fighting NATO" in any meaningful sense.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Bet away, but best rely on some sort of evidence. Betting on a hunch is fine, but it's just that.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Bet away, but best rely on some sort of evidence. Betting on a hunch is fine, but it's just that.

I'll stick to the bet

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

I'm a gambling man.....what odds do you want?

a reply to: Freeborn

Err.................. No idea, I don't gamble

a reply to: Freeborn

Me, too!

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

"I'd bet anything on it."

Apparently not!

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

I do....a lot.

No problem.

My point is that sending them into combat risks a hell of a lot and could in fact give Russia something of a moral victory.
I know 50 SAS/SBS could do a lot of damage but somehow I think the risk outweighs the benefits - I could easily be wrong though.

And it doesn't say how many are there at any one time.
Are they getting rotated out and that's the total amount who have been out there for training etc?