Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

No, it is not "all about" Ukraine. Putin had much bigger game in his sights, but he lost that opportunity by badly underestimating what it would take to defeat Ukraine.

But in Putin's mind this all about Ukraine. Losing Ukraine to a western inspired 'coloured revolution' coup and regime change is the one negative in an amazing 20 year career rescuing Russia from complete deterioration and possible disintegration following the crazy 1990's. The one blunder for Putin is letting Ukraine leave Moscow's influence, what we see now is the attempt to put that right.

Finland is just a compromise in getting the result Putin wants, control over at the very least eastern Ukraine. For sure NATO is closer to St Petersburg etc, yet this makes no difference in reality. In Cold War rules a direct attack on Russia will result in the nukes starting to fly. Never going to happen, unless things spiral out of control and then we all go up in smoke

I do consider this opening up of a new front part of the Great Game for Ukraine. Israe's all imporatnt northern border has just come under sustained rocket fire probably from Lebanon. Putin through Iran and their Hezbollah proxy can turn up the heat on the ME front at will, looks like they've done just that.............................

"A broad barrage of rockets was launched from South Lebanon Thursday afternoon, April 5, almost across the full breadth of Galilee in northern Israel. Most were initially reported intercepted by Iron Dome batteries in place for the high terror alert declared for Passover. One person was slightly injured driving his car. As the rockets came in several salvoes, inhabitants of towns and villages, from Shlomi to Safed were advised to stay close to sheltered spaces until further notice and the attack is properly investigated. The beaches of Nahariya and further south, crowded with holiday trippers, were temporarily evacuated." www.debka.com...

Posted this elsewhere but really wanted to hear the thoughts here as well

Macron asks Xi to reason with Russia for Ukraine peace and The Offensive What Happens If It Fails?

In another mash-up of opinions and articles on Ukraine are we headed for negotiations or does a Ukrainian offensive potentially drain Ukraine to point of not having enough troops...and we all know what that may mean. Macron is talking with Xi is this window dressing, or is NATO really pushing for Xi to get Russia to negotiate?

So what are the chances of any of this actually getting talks going, or is it just a stalling tactic? Seeing reports of trenches all across Crimea, in other words, seems Russia is preparing to fight for this territory. All the while we have a rumored Ukrainian offensive in the works, an offensive that isn't just reliant on NATO arms and munitions, but ominously sounds as if this fails Ukraine would likely be low on experienced troops.

Is Crimea negotiable to Ukraine and Zelenskyy?

The first 2 links at the bottom show the importance of Crimea to the Russians. The last one discusses the importance of Ukraine's spring offensive, which sounds like if they do not make any headway there could be cascading problems.


www.reuters.com...

BEIJING, April 6 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron urged China's Xi Jinping on Thursday to reason with close ally Russia and help end the Ukraine war, while Xi responded by saying he hoped the two sides could hold peace negotiations as soon as possible.

In closely-watched talks in Beijing, which also involve EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, Macron said the West must engage Beijing to help end the crisis and prevent 'spiralling' tensions that could split global powers into warring blocs.

"The Russian aggression in Ukraine has dealt a blow to (international) stability," Macron told Xi, standing alongside the Chinese president outside the Great Hall of the People at the start of their meeting.


"I know I can count on you to bring back Russia to reason and everyone back to the negotiating table."

In comments after his meeting with Macron, Xi called for Ukraine and Russia to resume peace talks and find a political solution to the conflict.

France said the discussions between the leaders were "frank and constructive," while China described them as "friendly" and "in-depth".

Macron also asked Xi to press Russia to comply with international rules on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he will station tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine's neighbour Belarus, a move seen as a dangerous escalation in the bloody year-long conflict.

thehill.com...

New satellite images show Russian trenches across Crimea, indicating Moscow is prepping to defend the area ahead of an anticipated spring offensive from Ukraine, according to a new report from The Washington Post.

The images show miles of trench defenses have been built in just a few weeks, many along bodies of water.

Ukraine has vowed to retake Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, and Kyiv has said it won’t consider peace talks unless Russia leaves all occupied territory. Crimea is connected to the Ukrainian mainland by a narrow isthmus.

Israeli police raid al-Asqa mosque in Jerusalem for second time on consecutive nights
North Korea warns US, South Korea military drills escalate tension to ‘brink of a nuclear war’
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Crimea last month to mark the ninth anniversary of its annexation from Ukraine, arriving in the peninsula just a day after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest over alleged war crimes. He stressed the strategic importance of holding onto the area.

The international community broadly condemned Russia’s annexation of Crimea back in 2014, and the U.S. has long held that the peninsula is still Ukrainian territory, though the Biden administration has been ambiguous on the Crimea question in relation to eventual peace talks.

Russia’s war on Ukraine has waged on for more than a year, and Ukraine now appears to be prepping for a spring counteroffensive that could begin as soon as this month.

www.csis.org...

www.strategypage.com...

www.19fortyfive.com...

Ukraine’s Coming Offensive: What Happens If It Fails?
The viability of the Ukrainian state could well rest upon the results of this offensive. What obviously concerns Kyiv is that if the offensive fails, they could lose the war. What should worry Ukraine’s leaders the most, however, is that Ukraine could win this offensive battle, but as a result, lose the war anyway.

Ukraine is widely reported to be in the final stages of preparing for a spring offensive against Russia. Whether it ends in success or failure, this will likely mark Ukraine’s last chance to launch a large-scale offensive operation for a half year or more. This is true regardless of how many NATO weapons and ammunition are subsequently delivered.

After this operation, Ukraine will have expended the majority of its remaining Western-trained and experienced combat formations. Russia, on the other hand, still has substantial manpower resources from which to draw, as well as an industrial capacity that is producing war material now and will increase its output over time. This assessment stands in stark contrast to what many military experts have led Western publics to believe.

Western analysts overwhelmingly base their claims of Ukraine’s chances to drive back Russian forces on Kyiv’s acquisition of modern NATO equipment and an upsurge in NATO training for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is debatable how much NATO weapons and quick training can improve Ukraine’s offensive capacity, but even if the improvement is as notable as advertised, few Western analysts have addressed the most crucial question: What comes after the offensive?

a reply to: putnam6

After all the suffering, deaths, torture chambers, rapes, child kidnaps it's to me really hard to see Ukraine would let Russians have Crimea .....

Also , Chinese diplomat just give statements .....



link


novajagazeta

a reply to: putnam6

That's something I have thought about as well. I think much of that will depend on where they start any counter offensive, how long it goes, the success it does or doesn't accomplish and how many Ukrianian soldiers continue to be trained in Eurpoe and North America. I may have missed it in the links but I don't see them address that the training pipeline isn't being turned off when the Ukrainians start their next offensive. It isn't like they have all the training they are getting.

Hell, I know for a fact that their is a lot of training happening in Western and Southern Ukraine near the Polish and Romanian borders.

a reply to: GAOTU789

Since so much of the current war has mirrored the two world wars, I'll go out on a limb and predict the Russian defense may be more rugged that some assume.

Historically, the Russians have been poor when on the offense in wars started by Russia. And they have usually been stubborn when on the defense in any war. Ukraine's task will be to first unhinge their defensive lines by maneuver, and then defeat them while they don't enjoy the shelter of fortifications. Anything else runs the risk of bogging down and becoming very casualty intensive for the Ukrainians.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

100% correct cav.

If the Ukrainians keep up with the small unit maneuver warfare like they have been outside of the defense of Bakhmut, they have a chance. If they just go large scale frontal assault, well, their losses will probably mirror the Russian losses when they have tried to do the same. Like you say, the Russians have usuuallly been really good at defence but in saying that, that has been largely on their own soil. We'll see if that axiom holds for them when they are on foreign soil, regardless of the novorossiya BS from the Russian gov.

originally posted by: Kenzo
After all the suffering, deaths, torture chambers, rapes, child kidnaps it's to me really hard to see Ukraine would let Russians have Crimea .....

The Ukrainian's have said as much. But then would Russia only accept the status quo? That would represent a defeat, because all they would have to show for all the grief and mayhem would be back to the starting point.

Macron has tried and failed to be a peace-maker. In fact, he's an appeaser. France has been lukewarm about supporting Ukraine.

a reply to: paraphi

Macron/France won't be the peacemakers in this conflict. I don't believe that Putin respects Macron enough to let him have that role. He respects strength and Macron is NOT strong. Hell, like you said, they've been lukewarm on the conflict, taking the appeasement role. # appeasement, it gets you nowhere but even further piled in #.

Interesting piece here about the losses suffered by the Russian 331st Guards Parachute Regiment:

BBC News - The cost of the Ukraine war for one Russian regiment
www.bbc.co.uk...

originally posted by: GAOTU789

Hell, I know for a fact that their is a lot of training happening in Western and Southern Ukraine near the Polish and Romanian borders.

The pipeline is continuous, the flow was planned to start in May with about 60,000 highly trained and top geared troops long with all the big equipment with fully training operators. This is just the start to the flow as it will continue.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
Interesting piece here about the losses suffered by the Russian 331st Guards Parachute Regiment:

BBC News - The cost of the Ukraine war for one Russian regiment
www.bbc.co.uk...

Most of their soldiers come from outside of the big cities and so we just do not know as once you get outside of their big cities Russia gets extremely poor and 3rd world real quick. It is estimated 155k dead so far and close to 800 per day are dying, you can maybe add 5x that to the seriously wounded for life unable to fight anymore. It is estimated 20,000 and 30,000 Russian soldiers have been either killed or severely wounded in the battle for Bakhmut alone.


It is hard to deny this too.

Total Russian losses in the conflict also included 3,436 tanks, 6,723 armored fighting vehicles (AFV) and 2,464 artillery systems, the latest figures from the UAF showed.

originally posted by: GAOTU789

If the Ukrainians keep up with the small unit maneuver warfare like they have been outside of the defense of Bakhmut, they have a chance. If they just go large scale frontal assault, well, their losses will probably mirror the Russian losses when they have tried to do the same. Like you say, the Russians have usuuallly been really good at defence but in saying that, that has been largely on their own soil. We'll see if that axiom holds for them when they are on foreign soil, regardless of the novorossiya BS from the Russian gov.

The problem that Ukraine has is that Russia is perfectly fine with a 10 to 1 loss in this event. Russia has many times used the tactic to just flood the battlefield with bodies knowing in the end even if they lose millions, it's OK for them. What Ukraine has on their side is guided everything that really increases the efficiently of their equipment to the max. Russia is shooting like 20,000+ artillery per day with little care where it goes other than to report they are firing to the upper leadership, as example.

a reply to: Xtrozero

I'm sure someone will be along soon to deny it....

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Xtrozero

I'm sure someone will be along soon to deny it....

Sure they will, then Russia says "we need another 500k"...lol and T55s are normal tanks as Russia holds back to good stuff, or whatever else they want to suggest. It is really the lack of military transportation vehicle that are really hurting Russia right now.

We could be about to see things completely kick off after the rocket attacks on northern Israel this morning. Israeli cabinet investigating if Iran was behind the co-ordinated attack. My bet is Russia is behind this as well in attempt to open a diversionary war to concentrate western minds away from Ukraine.

"Israeli security cabinet convenes following Lebanon rocket barrage
Netanyahu set to convene security cabinet on Thursday evening • IDF examining potential Iranian involvement in barrage attributed to Hamas" www.jpost.com...

This might be the trigger that kicks off the Israel Iran war leading to an assault on Iranian nuke installations. Interesting times

a reply to: paraphi

France has been lukewarm about supporting Ukraine.

Not just France, Germany as well.

Above points to a very serious issue for both the EU and NATO. And that is there are large states in the EU which have a state bureaucracy still locked into 19th century notions regarding 'might makes right' and expectations of small states kowtowing to large states. All that was par for the course in the 19th century; it is completely incompatible with the ideals of a multinational partnership of many European countries. Until Europe can fully jettison those tendencies, the specter of war will remain.

Cheers

originally posted by: Xtrozero
Russia is shooting like 20,000+ artillery per day with little care where it goes other than to report they are firing to the upper leadership, as example.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Xtrozero

I'm sure someone will be along soon to deny it....

Firing 20,000+ Artillery per day? I can't deny it with certainty but it is questionable at best. They went from 60,000 a day last year to 20,000 a day early this year, to now more recent estimates I've read say down to around 5000 a day on average:

Russia Reportedly Rationing Ammunition on the Frontline Due to Shortages

It was in early January that U.S. and Ukrainian officials first commented upon noticeable reductions in Russia’s use of artillery fire, which in some places was 75% lower than in previous months. Some U.S. analysts said that the rate of Russian fire had dropped from 20,000 rounds per day to around 5,000 per day on average.

At the time there was no obvious reason for the drop and there was speculation that it was either down to a Russia reassessing its tactical use of artillery or, as other experts believed, it was simply down to them running out of useable ammunition.

The latest UK Defense Intelligence assessment seems to support the latter theory.

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
... the one negative in an amazing 20 year career rescuing Russia from complete deterioration and possible disintegration following the crazy 1990's. The one blunder for Putin is letting Ukraine leave Moscow's influence, what we see now is the attempt to put that right.

I'm intrigued in your view of this guy. The encouraging period of glasnost and perestroika (yes, I know, it was not elegantly implemented) brought the Soviet empire closer to the bosom of the major economies of the world. Putin has used these new publicly traded companies to his advantage. Not only does he wield his sword over the heads of those new CEOs, but also takes a slice of every deal. For a couple decades he has reputedly been and still is the richest man in the world, according to many sources.

I simply don't understand the average Russian. Why are they allowing their country to be raped by a tiny minority, who spunk that enormous wealth on superyachts and luxury apartments in capital cities of the West? Maybe I'm wrong. but I see the average Russian is so doped on potato vodka they simply bend over and take it. Anyone sober enough to object is imprisoned, poisoned or takes their first flying lesson from their apartment window.

6 April Update

* Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

* Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line.

* Ukrainian officials indicated that Russian forces are able to maintain a suitable rate of artillery fire in prioritized areas of the front at the expense of other sectors.

More at URL above.

Also, Putin and Lukashenko met in Moscow.

Baikonur spacedrome remains under seizure by the government of Kazhakstan. Read all about it

Cheers