Impending Invasion of Ukraine from Belarus Will Likely Force NATO to Act

a reply to: M5xaz

"Look up the end of the Korean war.
A mere cease fire, no peace treaty, no reparations paid by the North, as they should have."


A cease fire was possible in Korea because both sides had been pushed back to where they were before the war anyway.


Has russia removed it's invasion forces from Ukraine yet?

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: M5xaz

"Look up the end of the Korean war.
A mere cease fire, no peace treaty, no reparations paid by the North, as they should have."


A cease fire was possible in Korea because both sides had been pushed back to where they were before the war anyway.


Has russia removed it's invasion forces from Ukraine yet?

The Korean cease -fire deal had nothing to do with military positions at the end of the war.

Neither was the case in the Golan heights with Syria and Israel. Israel did not give back their positions

Or in Cyprus with the Greeks and Turks. Turkey still occupies Cyprus to this day


Again, you have no knowledge of history
Just a fool wanting to march into nuclear fire

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: M5xaz


"I'm not pushing war"


Glad to hear that you are now advocating for russia to immediately remove it's invasion forces from Ukraine.

Leave to fight your war in Ukraine

Stat !

originally posted by: M5xaz

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: M5xaz


"I'm not pushing war"


Glad to hear that you are now advocating for russia to immediately remove it's invasion forces from Ukraine.

Leave to fight your war in Ukraine

Stat !

I'm old & weak, so I do what I can from here.

a reply to: M5xaz


Only russia is threatening 'nuclear fire', and is doing so to frighten folks into forcing Ukraine to surrender to russia's absurd demands for Ukrainian territory.

Germany tried the same thing when wanting to start a world war, chamberlain fell for it, so we got ww2.



Israel should, and probably will, give golan back when someone stops threatening to invade through golan again, just like they did with Sinai.

I never understood the cypress situation, and won't pretend to now.

The korea cease fire happened when the front was moved back to the prewar borders, neither side was interested before that, and rightfully so, the north had no business in the south, and we had no business going much north of that original border (and paid a heavy price for doing so).

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: Quintilian


"Do you mean you think NATO will officially move troops into Ukraine, or declare war? "


No.

NATO isn't either threatening or preparing for that, and it won't be necessary since russia isn't capable of winning the war it started anyway.

Fair enough if that's your opinion. Though you did ask.

We know the US meddled in the maidan coup and there is the tape of Nuland re the resulting puppet regime (the famous "f#@k the EU" one). The US has been backing/funding Ukranians since despite shelling of the separatist regions for years (that have now been annexed). Not to mention the false enticements to join NATO. The idea that the Russians just decided to invade because "Russia bad" has to pretend this historical background doesn't exist.

I think that only one country ever had any possibility of winning this conflict. The eventual peace agreement will be on the US and Russia's terms (with Ukraine irrelevant). I can't imagine what any possible victory for Ukraine would look like, unless you call the Russians and NATO leaving behind a a pile of rubble, a victory? (where they make a desert, they call it peace).

Seriously, what do you envision as a Ukraine victory, what do you think it would look like?

None of this had to happen of course. The Russians have been trying for a diplomatic settlement for a very long time to no avail even after the Minsk agreement was simply ignored.

Imagine the Russians had meddled in Mexican politics, installing a puppet regime, with enticements to join its military alliance solely dedicated to the downfall of the US, then began arming and funding it, with people being shelled near the US border? That's the analogy.

It would be great if the hostilities stopped, the Russians left, the extremists in Ukraine were dealt with, the UN controlled a vote in the separatist regions and the pipelines were repaired so that Europeans weren't facing de-industrialisation and immiseration, and then the price of energy could drop to somewhere near what it was for everyone else.

There seems to be a big US sized fly in that ointment though. There will be winners and losers, but neither you nor I will know who. For ordinary people, there is only misery in wars. The menticide required to make people believe otherwise is really quite artful.

a reply to: Quintilian


"Seriously, what do you envision as a Ukraine victory, what do you think it would look like?"


I think russian Patriots will deal with putin.

As harsh and unlikely as that sounds, Ukraine is never gonna surrender to russian demands that Ukraine cease to exist, and putin isn't gonna stop trying until someone stops him.

Since nobody else has any interest in getting involved in russia's war, that only leaves russian Patriots.

I said exactly that on Feb 24, and nothing has changed since then.




Ukraine 'wins' by surviving and maintaining control of it's territory, nothing else is even on the table.

(Though the russian reparations will certainly help)

For ordinary people, there is only misery in wars. The menticide required to make people believe otherwise is really quite artful.

Agreed 100%.

So much that I'll even let all the russian propaganda untruths in your post slide. This time.

a reply to: Quintilian

the famous "f#@k the EU" one

Have you ever wondered what that was about? What that was really about?

Hint: take note of which European political leader took umbrage over that remark. Curiously enough, that politician was NOT an EU official.

Hint 2: some actions look better when the actors wrap themselves in pretty new flags that don't carry historical baggage.

Cheers

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: Quintilian


"Seriously, what do you envision as a Ukraine victory, what do you think it would look like?"


I think russian Patriots will deal with putin.

As harsh and unlikely as that sounds, Ukraine is never gonna surrender to russian demands that Ukraine cease to exist, and putin isn't gonna stop trying until someone stops him.

Since nobody else has any interest in getting involved in russia's war, that only leaves russian Patriots.

I said exactly that on Feb 24, and nothing has changed since then.




Ukraine 'wins' by surviving and maintaining control of it's territory, nothing else is even on the table.

(Though the russian reparations will certainly help)

For ordinary people, there is only misery in wars. The menticide required to make people believe otherwise is really quite artful.

Agreed 100%.

So much that I'll even let all the russian propaganda untruths in your post slide. This time.

With respect, my opinion could be as wrong as anyone else's, but calling it Russian propaganda seems lazy. It's basically the same (or very close) to the opinion of some very good academics on the subject (most notably Mearsheimer but there are others).

At any rate my main points on which this opinion is based are a matter of public record. US meddling
in Ukraine politics goes back quite a way. The US policy to stop Russian gas being exported to Europe is also well known. There are vids around the place of people like Rice, Trump and Brandon explaining it. Trump called it a "tragedy", though directed most of his belligerence towards Germany.

There was US officials in Ukraine supporting the maidan unrest (will leave out three letter agency involvement, this time lol), this is well known. Imagine if high ranking Russian politicians visited the US on Jan.6 to encourage and show support? Apart from the obvious "F@#k the EU" discussion of who they were going to nominate as leader.

The corrupt Ukraine govt and funding by the US since is also well known, as are its Nazi contingent that have too much sway for their size. The mainstream media even used to raise questions about it once (until recently, when it became verboten). Gaurdian. Reuters.

The Minsk agreements are fact. Although the removal of Ukrainian weapons from the front and ceasing of Ukrainian operations in the separatist regions never happened (they continued to be shelled), according to independant journalists who have been thier for this entire period. Nor were the constitutional reforms taken seriously. The use of fake "NATO membership" offers to Ukraine to provoke Russia is also well known.

To say that the Russians entered Ukraine "unprovoked" is nonsense. The US did everything it could to provoke the situation.

Ukraine has already lost the Crimea and the south eastern portion. They aren't coming back. Continuing hostilities will potentially lose more and leave the rest of the country in ruins. Though it might be already past the point of negotiations.

The idea that the US cares about any of this (apart from what it can get out of it) or has Ukrainian sovereignty uppermost in mind doesn't have much going for it. Not to mention they have a rap sheet of starting proxy wars, civil wars, backing coups and installing corrupt puppet govts longer than both of your arms. They also have quite a recent history of invasions, with a penchant for doing this to countries who can't really mount a defence lol.

The US is playing a very reckless game this time. No Russian leader would ever let this region become a full on vassal state any more than the US would allow Mexico to become a vassal state of Russia, a fact the US/Nato know full well and are using to their advantage.

While it's extremely unlikely that Russia will feel their regime's existence s threatened, if that does happen (war is unpredictable after all) there is another country (with the world's largest economy in real terms) that can't afford to let that happen, knowing they would be next.

A larger conflict also gives a real possibility of a desperate regime launching nukes, which certainly won't be heading to the Ukraine. I'm not necessarily talking about Russia here either (there is only one country who has vaporised innocent civilians with them after all).

We need a better ruling class (none at all might be better).

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Quintilian

the famous "f#@k the EU" one

Have you ever wondered what that was about? What that was really about?

Hint: take note of which European political leader took umbrage over that remark. Curiously enough, that politician was NOT an EU official.

Hint 2: some actions look better when the actors wrap themselves in pretty new flags that don't carry historical baggage.

Cheers

I doubt it needed interpreting, but in context it seems to allude to Nuland's "appreciation" for a lack of active support from the EU.

What do you think it meant.

If Lukashenko was foolish enough to get Belarus involved, then I think the following becomes possible.

1. Lukashenko and his dictatorship's days will be numbered. A concerted effort to topple his government will start. The political opposition in Belarus will find they have a voice and support from the West. Lukashenko needs his troops at home to guard against a popular uprising.
2. Belorussian troops will refuse to fight, or at least be unhappy in so doing. They are combat virgins. They will have seen the destruction of the Russian offensive in the Spring. Smelt the smoke and watched the bodies passing through back home to Russia.
3. Poland may intervene. Note, this is a unilateral action by Poland and not NATO. The Polish army and air force would make short work of anything Belarus has to offer up, based on quality alone.
4. NATO could impose a "no fly / no move" zone. One day would be all it would take to remove an invasion threat. This may be risky, but only if Russia are foolish enough to get in the way.

Long and the short of it is that Lukashenko must realise that Putin is a dead duck. He either dies with Putin, or lives in the luxury he has come to expect.

Belarus will keep out of Ukraine. Bearing in mind, NATO (or specifically the US and the UK) will likely have prewarning of any invasion, as they did when Russia made its move.

I wonder if Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, is aware of the corresponding fates of Franco and Mussolini. Mussolini aligned Italy with Hitler's Germany and the Axis. So Mussolini sealed his fate by following Germany to defeat in WW2. However, Franco kept Spain out of the war, so his regime lasted until he died in 1975. So if Lukashenko commits troops to Russia's war in Ukraine, he will seal his fate.

Also, Russian institutional corruption and lousy logistics would doom Belarusian troops in Ukraine.

Belarus army would likely have little impact in Ukraine war
link

TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — Statements made this week by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko have reignited fears that his army could join Russian forces in Moscow's war against Ukraine, but the authoritarian leader appears reluctant to lend his troops to the effort, despite perceived pressure from Moscow.


Russia has already used Belarus, its longtime and dependent ally, as a staging ground to send troops and missiles into Ukraine. Analysts say if Belarus' small and inexperienced military gets involved, the additional troops could help Moscow cut off some key transportation corridors, but likely wouldn't significantly boost Russian President Vladimir Putin's capabilities on the battlefield.

According to this, Belarus entering the war will have no impact. Belarus won't want to destabilize itself on Putin's blunder.

“The Belarusian army is weak and demotivated, and it is not willing to fight with Ukraine, which means that Lukashenko will try to give Putin anything but Belarusian soldiers,” Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov told The Associated Press on Tuesday. “Lukashenko is letting Putin know: ‘I will help, but I won’t fight.'"

“Lukashenko is letting Putin know: ‘I will help, but I won’t fight.'"

But wait. That is "interference." See how this works, Putin?

Besides, the whole point of this is the thousands of Russians that are descending like flies on the Belarus/Ukranian border, to open up a new northern front. It really has little to do with the Belarus army- but it will spell political suicide for old Luke.

a reply to: Quintilian

It means,

... she who was caught with hand in the cookie jar was the one who squawked.

-Not- any official of the EU. Which is what one would have expected, given the quote.

No, it was the German chancellor who emotionally reacted.

Writ briefly, the Germans had their own games going on in Ukraine and Nuland had no use for that.

The German elites are the ones driving the EU (about 75% or so, the rest being French and some others). Wealthy Germans see HUGE opportunity for economic colonization of former Soviet republics. It is Drang nach Osten, version 21st century.

One has to wryly smile when people, especially Europeans, consistently point the finger at the USA as if it is the sole national actor doing anything on the international scene. People need to look past the fairy tales told by European media and take a much harder look at who is pulling the levers in the EU, and why.

Not that I think Merkel was any kind of genius. She was a puppet following a trajectory charted for her by the super-wealthy in Germany.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Great post.

Wealthy elites, regardless of nationality, will always seek to manipulate and exploit events, situations and people to further their own vested interests and assorted agendas.

And they just keep on rolling in.

twitter.com...

Nope. Nothing to see here.

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher
a reply to: M5xaz


Only russia is threatening 'nuclear fire', and is doing so to frighten folks into forcing Ukraine to surrender to russia's absurd demands for Ukrainian territory.

Germany tried the same thing when wanting to start a world war, chamberlain fell for it, so we got ww2.



Israel should, and probably will, give golan back when someone stops threatening to invade through golan again, just like they did with Sinai.

I never understood the cypress situation, and won't pretend to now.

The korea cease fire happened when the front was moved back to the prewar borders, neither side was interested before that, and rightfully so, the north had no business in the south, and we had no business going much north of that original border (and paid a heavy price for doing so).

So Israel can keep occupied theatre with a cease fire ? And displace the locals
But no one else can

Again, your understanding of cease fires is nonexistent.

I could have also cited Northern Ireland.

But you want war.
YOU go ahead and get yourself killed in Ukraine.
We don't have to agree with your madness

And with respect to Nukes, you are wrong , again.
You are ignorant of current affairs and history

Zelensky is not only caalling for Nukes but first strike nukes.
www.news.com.au... e96950d744

That and the Nazi imagery of the Azov battalion, that is what you support.

and how do you know its thats simple. You have demonstrated you can only see one side of the narrative. Meaning you are in know position to define the situation. Its not the situation being simple here.

#Belarus has officially declared a counter-terrorist operation at their border region with #Ukraine, partial mobilization in the country to follow soon.

twitter.com...

If true, would that not imply that they intend to go into Ukraine? Ukraine is not attacking them on their soil? Mobilization? Wait, why is there a partial mobilization, when he's got thousands of Russians pouring into the country headed to the border?

These partial mobilizations are all the rage these days.

Ha, what a fool. His opposition is going to have a field day with this. As expected, northern front to the war about to open up?

:smdh: