Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: dragonridr

I wonder how certain posters might try and spin all this news?

the russian army victoriously retreated. the Ukrainian army runs after them in panic

Without trains running can an offensive be sustainable - I'm hearing rumors that immobile trains are being bombed on their tracks.

originally posted by: Phoenix
Without trains running can an offensive be sustainable - I'm hearing rumors that immobile trains are being bombed on their tracks.

Not by russian doctrine, nothing else can move the tonnage that requires.

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher

originally posted by: Phoenix
Without trains running can an offensive be sustainable - I'm hearing rumors that immobile trains are being bombed on their tracks.

Not by russian doctrine, nothing else can move the tonnage that requires.

So one could surmise that any Ukrainian offensive is dead in the water atm.

originally posted by: Phoenix

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher

originally posted by: Phoenix
Without trains running can an offensive be sustainable - I'm hearing rumors that immobile trains are being bombed on their tracks.

Not by russian doctrine, nothing else can move the tonnage that requires.

So one could surmise that any Ukrainian offensive is dead in the water atm.

Not 'dead in the water', russia still has lots of ammo forward deployed but not sustainable.



Ukraine has had to quickly learn how to fight without trains over the course of this war because russia was good at hitting them, and are closer to NATO doctrine now than russian doctrine as a result.

NATO doctrine requires far less than 1% of the tonnage for the same missions, primarily due to range and precision.

Though Ukraine is still stuck using mostly russian equipment in defensive positions, it's been almost exclusively western gear spearheading the counter offensives, but Ukraine still has very little of of this western gear.

11 September Update

Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive.

Key Takeaways

* Ukrainian forces have inflicted a major operational defeat on Russia, recapturing almost all Kharkiv Oblast in a rapid counter-offensive

* Ukrainian authorities shut down the last active reactor at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on September 11.

* The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that Russian forces are withdrawing from positions throughout all but easternmost Kharkiv Oblast.

* Russian milbloggers have defined the Oskil River that runs from Kupyansk to Izyum as the new frontline following Russian withdrawal from positions in eastern Kharkiv Oblast.

* Ukrainian forces have advanced into Vovchansk and Velykyi Burluk, just south of the international border.

* Ukrainian forces continue to fight positional battles and conduct strikes on Russian military, logistics, and transportation assets along the Southern Axis.

* Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Avdiivka and Bakhmut areas.

* Russian authorities are continuing to pull combat power from various external sources to support operations in Ukraine and are struggling to compensate volunteers.

* The success of recent Ukrainian counteroffensives likely contributed to the Russian announcement that annexation referenda will be indefinitely postponed.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

One wonders how much artillery the Russians lost when their troops routed.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

One wonders how much artillery the Russians lost when their troops routed.

Cheers

Ukrainians are still counting all the vehicles russia donated, haven't even started counting artillery yet.

Interesting bit from the website linked for the 11 September summary.

Left hand still isn't talking to the right hand. Indicative of poor dissemination of intelligence and lack of initiative by senior commanders.

Russia likely lacks sufficient reserve forces to complete the formation of a new defensive line along the Oskil River, as it is reportedly trying to do before Ukrainian forces continue their advance through that position if they so choose. Prudence would demand that Russia pull forces from other sectors of the battlespace to establish defensive lines further east than the Oskil River to ensure that it can hold the Luhansk Oblast border or a line as close to that border as possible. But Russian troops around Bakhmut and near Donetsk City continue offensive operations as if unaware of the danger to Luhansk, and Russian forces in Kherson still face attack and the threat of more attacks on that axis.

Cheers

originally posted by: Phoenix

originally posted by: MidnightWatcher

originally posted by: Phoenix
Without trains running can an offensive be sustainable - I'm hearing rumors that immobile trains are being bombed on their tracks.

Not by russian doctrine, nothing else can move the tonnage that requires.

So one could surmise that any Ukrainian offensive is dead in the water atm.

This is ISW's take:

The current counter-offensive will not end the war. The campaign in northeast Ukraine will eventually culminate, allowing the Russians to re-establish a tenable defensive line and possibly even conduct localized counterattacks. Ukraine will have to launch subsequent counter-offensive operations, likely several, to finish the liberation of Russian-occupied territory. The war remains likely to stretch into 2023.

Link

Bolding was done by me.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2



There are reports from multiple normally trusted sources that russia is rapidly pulling thousands of 120mm howitzers designed in 1943 out of storage and loading them on trains from deep inside russia.

It seems russia is nearly out of 152mm shells and spare barrels, or is expecting another conflict somewhere.

How could russia run out of 152s? That doesn't seem possible

There haven't been any legitimate reports regarding Ukrainian losses in the Kharkiv region, but if enough of the new gear and newly trained troops (Thank You UK!) survived, and russia is desperate enough to pull 120s from 1943, it might be time to throw out the rule book regarding operational pauses.

russia's behavior today seems to fit with the idea that they might actually be THAT defenseless right now.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

The lack of 152s may be a consequence of poor maintenance over the decades as well as intense usage of artillery in Ukraine. Not helped if the Russians lost a bunch of batteries in the latest fighting.

Pulling out the 122s. Those weren't bad weapons, but are outranged by modern artillery pieces.

"expecting another conflict" ... could be the paranoia of the Russian state, expecting NATO to hop on them while they're in trouble.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: MidnightWatcher

The lack of 152s may be a consequence of poor maintenance over the decades as well as intense usage of artillery in Ukraine. Not helped if the Russians lost a bunch of batteries in the latest fighting.

Pulling out the 122s. Those weren't bad weapons, but are outranged by modern artillery pieces.

"expecting another conflict" ... could be the paranoia of the Russian state, expecting NATO to hop on them while they're in trouble.

Cheers

I wasn't even aware that they existed until a couple hours ago, the best info I could find is roughly a 12 km effective range IF they and the ammo are in good condition.

That's pretty horrible even by russian standards.

a reply to: MidnightWatcher

The 1943 date apparently refers to 152mm howitzers of the Second World War.

The 122s used in the war were M1938s. Yeah, 12 kilometers is very short by today's standards. They'll be counter-battery'd in short order by guns that far outrange them.

Cheers

This sounds quite direct admission that Russian armed forces / local militia organisation is too sloppy, even if Putin would order mobilization....

Interesting admission from Russian "Vostok" battalion commander Aleksandr Khodakovsy


I am not sure, but some views say that situation in Luhansk is not good in Russian side, not enough men etc...so maybe Ukrainians will first take north Luhanks and then start coming down , thought it`s just rough estimate at this point , war is unpredictable ..

Someone made calculations, BTG logistical requirements.



v1.3? Tonnage was off on the initial slide for BTG logistical requirements. Believe its correct now.


With all the losses in kharkiv , Russian forces have even bigger logistics problem they had before this Ukrainien offensive , if they cant anymore get the logistics work, it will slow them .

a reply to: Kenzo


If you are in an engagement, it is all about energy. If the opponent has to mount the offensive it costs far more than the defending force. It is in fact pay pay pay. who is paying for this?

Russians seek ways to surrender due to counteroffensive – Operational Command South

Quote: "We continue to advance, and progress is quite convincing. This doesn’t just affect the geographical withdrawal of enemy positions: it also has a psychological effect.

Enemy units which are starting to regroup are looking for ways to reach out to our units in order to conduct so-called negotiations about the possibility of laying down their arms and transitioning to the aegis of international humanitarian law."

a reply to: Kenzo

I personally think that the counteroffensive is from Nato and will soon develop into a world war. Things are getting worse. How long does anyone think that all these long-range weapons most likely armed and targeted by NATO will before an equal and opposite force is exerted? www.bitchute.com...

a reply to: anonentity

NATO troops not there , taking part of the battles....if it would be ,Russians would be out from Ukraine allready .