Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Closing the door on Crimea just tells Putin he has a chance later on to invade the rest of Ukraine and with the knowledge the west wont assist Ukraine except for military equipment.

By letting Ukraine "sink" all we are doing in reality is watching the West sink.

Being a pacifist is not all bad. However it reminds me of the analogy where a guy is listening to the news on the radio where they are discussing the peace protest downtown (insert any city). The guy jumps in his car and heads to the protest. He listens to a speaker who is preaching peace at all costs, people need to turn the other cheek, insert other peace protests slogans here.

The guy approached the speaker and punches him in the face, sending him to the ground. When the speaker gets up he start to respond, and the guy then throws all of his slogans back in his face, turn the other cheek etc. The speaker then starts preaching to the crowd again and the guy, again pouches the speaker in the face and down he goes. The speaker gets up and again start to move towards the guy who punched him, and again the guy throws everything the guy said, turn the other cheek etc, back in his face.

Long story short this happens again with the same results. Eventually the guy preaching peace eventually has to admit that there will be certain situation where turning the other cheek will never work and that the person demanding peace must fight for that peace he wants.

In my opinion we have reached that point with Putin. Enough of turning the other cheek, allowing a face saving way out, etc. If we want a peaceful world then we will have to fight for it.

So many people mis understand the turn the other cheek phrase.
It was for NON LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS. Jesus had armed people with him when he went places from time to time to protect himself and his followers. so they prolly did not turn the other cheek when in danger of pre mature death.

originally posted by: yuppa

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Closing the door on Crimea just tells Putin he has a chance later on to invade the rest of Ukraine and with the knowledge the west wont assist Ukraine except for military equipment.

By letting Ukraine "sink" all we are doing in reality is watching the West sink.

Being a pacifist is not all bad. However it reminds me of the analogy where a guy is listening to the news on the radio where they are discussing the peace protest downtown (insert any city). The guy jumps in his car and heads to the protest. He listens to a speaker who is preaching peace at all costs, people need to turn the other cheek, insert other peace protests slogans here.

The guy approached the speaker and punches him in the face, sending him to the ground. When the speaker gets up he start to respond, and the guy then throws all of his slogans back in his face, turn the other cheek etc. The speaker then starts preaching to the crowd again and the guy, again pouches the speaker in the face and down he goes. The speaker gets up and again start to move towards the guy who punched him, and again the guy throws everything the guy said, turn the other cheek etc, back in his face.

Long story short this happens again with the same results. Eventually the guy preaching peace eventually has to admit that there will be certain situation where turning the other cheek will never work and that the person demanding peace must fight for that peace he wants.

In my opinion we have reached that point with Putin. Enough of turning the other cheek, allowing a face saving way out, etc. If we want a peaceful world then we will have to fight for it.

So many people mis understand the turn the other cheek phrase.
It was for NON LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS. Jesus had armed people with him when he went places from time to time to protect himself and his followers. so they prolly did not turn the other cheek when in danger of pre mature death.

I agree with that completely, and frequently remind folks IRL, I also like telling tax collector stories to certain overly 'pious' democrats.




I don't think it applies to this situation though, 'tricking' russia into trying to hold onto Crimea for a while would force russia even deeper into the hole they keep digging for themselves.

I do think that russia (not putin) will literally beg Ukraine to take Crimea back after trying to hold onto it for a while longer.

I don't think Ukraine could rebuild Crimea while also rebuilding the rest of Ukraine at the same time (Crimea would be 100% destroyed in the assault. 100%. Probably Kherson & Odessa too.).

I therefore don't think there is any benefit at all to killing a lot of humans and risking a nuclear exchange by trying to retake Crimea by force.



Not 'turning of cheek', just a different strategy for achieving the same goals, one that carries less global risk and hopefully less killing of humans, but takes a little more time.

The last defenders of the Azvostal plant are reported to have surrendered and been taken into Russian custody.

Seeing as Putin said this "special operation" was to "de-nazify" Ukraine and the Azov troops were all nazis and now they're all POW's, does that mean "operation success"?

Now the Russkis have "liberated" Mariupol do you think they are just going to call it a win and go home? Or are they going to carry on until they have Odessa and landlock Ukraine, cutting them off from being able to ship their grain anywhere.

World leaders are talking about a worldwide food crisis. Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe. Russia has stolen millions of tons of grain from Ukraine since this started.

Russia is trying to hold everybody to ransom with food because sanctions are hurting them.

(Sorry for my little rant. Just had a drunken conversation with a Putin fanboy. Now he's asking how we can take Putin out! All I've got to do now is persuade him that Boris Johnson is not god!)

a reply to: nolabel I definetly don’t think they are just going home now. This isn’t going to be over during this campaign season. Now that
Mariupol is cleared, it’ll free up units to be used for other operations including all the resources used at Mariupol - personnel, logistics, missiles, artillery, Air Force ops, drones, and intelligence assets

I absolutely believe they will try to secure the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Odessa.

However when I brought up the possibility of Russia making taking Odessa, a couple of more of the outspoken people in this thread seem to think that Russia has no ability to capture it (mostly citing US intelligence that they don’t have the capability).

Anyone catch this about Russian anti drone laser weapons?

Russia is employing laser weapons in its special operation in Ukraine, in particular, the Zadira laser system capable of striking targets at a range of 5 km, Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov said in a live broadcast on TV Channel One on Wednesday.
"They [laser weapon systems] have begun arriving [for the army]. The first types are already being employed [in Russia’s special military operation]," the vice premier said, adding that the system was dubbed Zadira.

The latest Zadira laser weapon is more powerful than the Peresvet system, which is capable of blinding reconnaissance satellites at a distance of 1,500 km, he elaborated.
The Zadira is focused on physically destroying an object at a distance of up to 5 km and it literally burns through a target by its thermal impact.
This system is capable of "easily shooting down various types of drones, avoiding expending costly missiles of the Pantsyr and Tor types," the vice premier explained.

tass.com...

I bet those things cost a packet as they seem to be Russias latest gen laser,but with a range of a mere 5000 metres I doubt they will be game changing.
Rain and fog probably halves the range as well..

They claim to have shot(beamed?)down a Ukrainian drone with the system,which is mounted on an armoured truck-but they also claim to have another laser system which can blind satelittes-presumably to stop intelligence gathering.
uk.news.yahoo.com...

a reply to: SgtEsquire


Citing what is obvious on the ground, not any intelligence sources.

russia was badly beaten back to the ground they now hold, and despite frantic efforts for over a month are having trouble just holding that ground.

And that was before Ukraine started receiving M777s and the means to use them properly.

While russia could still deploy more resources to Ukraine, they have nowhere near enough there to take Odessa right now (or even reach it), and unless russia drastically changes it's mobilization efforts, they never will.

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

So Putin has entered his Wunderwaffe stage.

* - Russia prepping for general mobilization.
* - Russian media now lying by saying the west is not providing aid to Ukraine.
* - Russia is saying the war in Ukraine is nothing more than a rehearsal for Russia's war with NATO countries.
* - There are 66 concentration camps inside Russia holding Ukrainians.

a reply to: Xcathdra


I highly recommend that everyone watch at least 1 minute starting at 4:30.



Russian teevee admitting 66 civilian concentration camps currently holding almost 100,000 forcibly kidnapped Ukrainian civilians from Marioupol.

Don't let anyone get away with lying about this again, russian government teevee is bragging about it and even providing camp locations.

Case closed.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

I absolutely agree with you that they won’t be able to do it unless they change their mobilization efforts. However, I think they might be forced to do just that. Or give up, or nuke the world. Don’t get me wrong, I’d be super happy if Russia fails in their objectives in the Ukraine.

The US is finally supplying Ukraine with anti-ship missiles to help break the blockade.

a reply to: SgtEsquire


Nuking the planet is a real concern with a madman making nuke threats, but I've seen no indications that russia is able to significantly improve their mobilization efforts in time to help them in Ukraine.

putin isn't likely to stop trying until forced to surrender though, so anything's possible.

He'll never surrender of course, so I'm referring to other russians doing so after removing putin.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

The latest rumors out of the Kremlin regarding the possible coup is apparently now being discussed by senior Russian intel people (FSB / GRU). One of the issues they raised was if Putin gives an order to launch / use nukes that the order would not be obeyed. The time frame given for a coup to occur is sometime in the next 3 months and that it would happen very fast.

a reply to: Xcathdra


Something to hope for I guess, but such things rarely succeed in brainwashed countries led by a madman.

I think it WILL happen in russia, but I think it will either take a series of horrendous russian losses that russian teevee can't explain away to their brainwashed masses for it to succeed, and I haven't seen anything horrendous enough to cause that yet, or bread lines, and it's still far too early for that.

I see it coming, but can't tell how far away it is, or what form it will take.

I think putin also sees it coming, and this is why the russian propaganda jumped off another ledge of the crazy cliff in the last week.

The latest stuff is beyond bizarre.

20 May update

Key Takeaways

* Russian forces may have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of Popasna in order to continue their offensive on Severodonetsk from the south.

* Russian sources may be overstating the number of Ukrainian defenders who have been evacuated from Azovstal to either maximize the number of Russian prisoners of war who may be exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers or to avoid the embarrassment of admitting they have been locked into a months-long siege against only “hundreds” of Ukrainian soldiers.

* Russian troops reportedly regained certain positions taken by the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City.

* Russian forces are likely preparing for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive and protracted conflict on the Southern Axis.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Well the estimates for Russia to secure the country is 600k troops on top of what they have their now. The only way to get that amount is through a full mobilization. Speculation is the Russian people would go bonkers over that move.

An interesting video with a lot of historical parallels.

a reply to: Xcathdra


That could certainly be a 3rd way to trigger a strong enough public backlash, it doesn't sound like many younger russians want anything to do with putin's war.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Xcathdra


That could certainly be a 3rd way to trigger a strong enough public backlash, it doesn't sound like many younger russians want anything to do with putin's war.

It goes back to the videos we watched where there was a generational gap over whats acceptable. Watching the video tells me Putin was not popular to start with and it went down hill from there. I no longer believe the popularity polls showing Putin with an 80%+ approval rating are real.

It reinforces my position that Putin is stuck in the 1980's and is attempting to drag the world back to that time period.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Seems some clocks don't want to be wound back to 1985.

☭? 🚫 🕛


Cheers

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Speaking of Russian concentration camps -





Media coverage including US sending anti ship missiles to Ukraine (the bottom right hand button takes you to youtube if anyone wants to watch.