Corona Virus Updates Part 2

a reply to: logicsoda

I’m just curious why you believe the Chinese and the world are reacting differently to this virus ?

Why aren’t cities quarantined because of influenza , and why are travel bans not put into place ?

The Chinese economy is essentially shut down right now . They never do this for the more deadly flu bug .

Maybe you could tell them not to worry if you’re trying to wake people up.

Does anyone know if the citizens quarantined at different locations around the U.S. have access to the internet? It would be great to hear from them directly about what they are experiencing in quarantine, what the plane ride over was like, what testing they've been through. It doesn't seem like they do because I would think those posts would be all over ATS and Twitter with updates.

Also, I was a little bleary-eyed at 5 a.m. trying to catch up on all of the pages I missed overnight, but did I read that someone said there is a rumor about 51 cases in the U.S. that aren't being disclosed? Without any verification, it's just that...rumor, but we have all seen the random post..."I have a friend at a hospital who says they have a case there unreported"...so it does make you wonder.

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: logicsoda

originally posted by: elitegamer23
a reply to: Power_Semi
Part of me feels like the people in this thread who downplay this virus simply feel very safe because there is no way it will reach them in their moms basement .

Personally, I haven't seen people downplay this virus. I have COPD (28% lung function) and an immunodeficiency, but I also am able to cut through the bull# and see this from a logical point of view.

What we know right now based on this thread:

1.) "On January 24 2020 there were: 869 confirmed cases worldwide, including 26 fatalities"
That is about a 3% mortality rate.

2.) "The WHO declared a global health emergency on Jan 31"
OK. As they should, considering how rapidly this virus is spreading. They want to limit the spread of the virus as much as possible so that it doesn't mutate into something much more serious, which is a huge possibility with something so contagious. Currently, though... the statistics don't lie--compared to the influenza virus/pneumonia, this virus is 7% - 8% less fatal, with influenza having a 10% - 11% mortality rate in the 2017 - 2018 influenza season.



I did a little digging, and found the following: according to the latest from aljazeera.com (not sure how credible this source is):


More than 31000 infected. 636 deaths. 636/31000 = 0.0205, so 2% have died out of 31000. Were these healthy individuals? Individuals who were immunosuppressed? Were they elderly? Not enough info, but even so... that's statistically pretty #ing insignificant. That's not to say that you should go into Wuhan and let people cough on you, nor is it to say that you shouldn't avoid people with the virus, but it's also not something that we should be worrying frantically over. You ought to be more worried about the flu than this virus based on the statistics alone. See here, from the CDC:


Check this for the full report on the 2018-2019 season... it had a 9.6% mortality rate. Thus far, we have between a 2% and 3% mortality rate for this virus.

Be mindful of this #, but don't be frantically panicking like so many other parts of the world. It's contagious and should be monitored, but statistically you should be worrying more about influenza than this #.

I'm sorry, but this is just complete nonsense. From your own source I quote:

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

That's 34200 deaths from 35.5million. That's a mortality rate of 0.1%. So from your own source and figures, nCoV is therefore 20-30 times more deadly than flu

You're correct. I did the calculation again and it seems that I missed the e-4 in the calculator. I was wrong. All of what I wrote was essentially incorrect. Foot in mouth.

Thanks for pointing that out. This is just a lesson for me to be more mindful and less impulsive in the future.

a reply to: RubyRogue

This is a very valid point, but the numbers are still useful. While we cannot know the true CFR for nCoV, we can at least determine that 2% is the very minimum CFR (overall). How big is it? Who knows, but the minimum is useful.

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
I'm still seeing a lot of posts on this thread which aren't updating facts or what we see as facts. As i said before its very time consuming going through all the posts and seeing a fw people havin a long discussion about 'non-factual stuff and where they are going on holiday, should they go and other stuff non-related to 'virus updates'.

Please can you message eachother in private and continue your discussions and leave the thread for 'virus updates'

THANKYOU.

I am not taking a side here.
I do suggest that if you think there is a problem with a particular post, click on the 'ALERT' button and get a moderator involved. Then you won't have to clog the thread with multiple complaints.

a reply to: logicsoda

No problem. No need to be embarrassed. If you look at my post, you will see I edited it to correct my sums, we all do it!

Just to add, very big of you to admit your mistake. Much respect.

a reply to: Pommer89

Okay. Let me clarify for you.

You mentioned the white guy on the cruise.

I said:

"Well, if that's true then they are going to habe to be a lot careful with screening people on cruise ships.

That's kind of the point I was making about the cruise ship deal. In a closed environment like that the virus will have to find a new way to spread, and if this thing truly was just infecting Asians, and it ran out of Asians to infect on a cruise ship it would have to mutate.

And I'm sure that this virus has been coming into contact with non-Asian people amd mutating until it finds a way to successful take hold of their system all around the world. It probably won't be much longer until we start seeing people of all ethnicities becoming infected.

So, it will ultimately come down to who is resistant/immune or survives in whatever way.

Worst case scenario is that I heard earlier in this thread that a suitable cure isn't expected until about a year out from now. By that time we could all be infected and struggling.

Guess only time will tell."

Then checkmeout replied to me:

"I might be wrong but the virus doesn't have to mutate to affect non Asians. A virus really isn't discriminatory by race.
There were already non Asian cases too, the German ones I think?
More interesting is that he has no symptoms. His wife is negative atm, I suspect that will change."

To which I responded:

"I wasn't aware of any non-Asian infections. From what I knew even the cases in other countries were Asians who had traveled to or from China, or stayed with those who had."


Which means up until the report of the white guy on the cruise ship I wasn't aware of a non-Asian being infected.

So, I'm quite aware you had already posted a link. I read it. I responded to it.

originally posted by: elitegamer23
a reply to: logicsoda

I’m just curious why you believe the Chinese and the world are reacting differently to this virus ?

Why aren’t cities quarantined because of influenza , and why are travel bans not put into place ?

The Chinese economy is essentially shut down right now . They never do this for the more deadly flu bug .

Maybe you could tell them not to worry if you’re trying to wake people up.

That was my mistake, my friend. I was operating on incomplete data, and calculations that were incorrect.

Essentially all of what I wrote was incorrect. I was wrong, and I'm sorry. There is no point in holding on to ego and trying to argue away me being wrong in a debate because that just stunts learning, and growth.

This is more serious than I previously emphasized. Disregard my previous posts.

a reply to: Optimal

Considering this will kill you if you're going to die from it faster than you recover if you're going to live if you have a serious case, you can't really do that, either.

You either get a mild case and don't go to the hospital meaning you likely never get tested/counted, go to the hospital and die quickly, or you go into a lengthy recovery.

a reply to: Tukota


They have everything they need as far as I understand. There is some guy on Twitter and I imagine many more if you dig around. He said everybody fine so far no close contact but they are not locked down. In an airbase motel if I recall doing as well as can be expected

You know just because you disagree with somebody you don't need to constantly post that opinion.
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Now for some panic mongering

IF China is indeed pumping money into its markets to keep them from crashing then where does all the money come from?

link

It seems as if every American politician and talking head is expressing concern about the huge amount of debt that the U.S. government owes Chinese lenders. The Chinese do own a lot of U.S. debt -- about $1.1 trillion as of late 2019.

20th Jan this year.

Sooo what happens to the US economy IF china demands payment and then quickly everywhere else .....

To tie in a few other of the CT's ccp financially ruined and needs to control population, silence dissidents, Uighurs etc

Releases Bio weapon to mainly cull own population and disappear everybody they want rid of knowing it will cause a worldwide recession as they call in debts to deal with 'virus'

I don't believe the above but at the same time I'm sad to say it wouldn't actually surprise me (what a world we live in)


as it's the weekend

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
a reply to: logicsoda

No problem. No need to be embarrassed. If you look at my post, you will see I edited it to correct my sums, we all do it!

Just to add, very big of you to admit your mistake. Much respect.

I mean there's no point in trying to argue when what I said is evidently wrong. People can even read my stuff, see how I made the errors, and apply what they've learned to avoid similar logical errors in the future. I used to be pretty egotistical but time and experience has shown me that there is little to be gained and much to be lost from having a big ego.

a reply to: Tukota

The problem is that this is cold and flu season and pneumonia both bacterial and viral will be common and contagious. Hospitals will take precautions with patients for all kinds of reasons to protect patients, to protect staff, etc., and now throw this reason in there and rumors are bound to start.

Right now I would still say more are bound to just rumors than true.

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: SpartanStoic

Disagree, not with what the ccp did ( they did do that), but you can’t judge a race of people based on the actions of some in the past, by that logic all Germans are .....

But the Germans were the Nazis, and that regime ended.

In China it's the same regime now that it was back then.

I don't want to go off topic but did you really just say that? Did you just imply that all Germans were Nazis?

That really strange. My grandpa left Germany to join the US Navy and fight against the Nazis. I guess he was actually a Nazi too huh?

I guess all the Germans assisting Jewish people hide and escape were Nazis huh?

Way to be ignorant.

JFC

a reply to: Tukota

Lack of info from any of the quarantined around the world would kinda point to a lack of communication outbound, (aside from the U.K. guy when he first went in (looks staged tbh!)) other than that seems to be silence

a reply to: johnb

Sooo what happens to the US economy IF china demands payment and then quickly everywhere else .....

I don't think you are understanding how most of that "debt" works. It is mostly tied up in US treasury bills (a lot of them being 10- or 30-year T-bills). So they cannot just demand they be paid back until the T-bill maturity dates

a reply to: ketsuko

That's why I said in my post I expect the recovery ratio to fluctuate wildly in comparison, which it has. Point is, every one of the 30 000 infected cases MUST either die or recover. Obviously we are talking reported, official numbers here, so those unaccounted don't factor into the equation anyway. Not that I trust CCP numbers. All I'm saying is to extrapolate two weeks or more into the future based on incomplete data is far more absurd than taking concrete data and working off that. We cannot assume that when the other 30 000 infected cross the death/recovery data point they will fall neatly into a 3% ratio. That has not even remotely been observed. We look at the ones who HAVE crossed that data point.

Supposedly it took the Chinese whistleblower more or less 22 days to die.

a reply to: Adphil28

They released the Washington state case to home quarantine. We are told the other cases here are stable.

a reply to: ketsuko

I thought two people in San Fran area were stable then had to be rushed to the hospital. Last I heard they were in icu.
I’m probably wrong , just pulling that from my bad memory .

Edited to add, they are just in isolation, not the icu.

This video on Twitter shows the 4 passengers in NJ being off-loaded from the cruise ship docked there. They are suspected of having the Coronavirus but, if you look closely, the medical personnel taking them to the ambulance are not wearing any gloves or masks. You would think more precautions would be taken.

twitter.com...