Corona Virus Updates Part 2

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: tennisdawg

originally posted by: logicsoda

originally posted by: tennisdawg

I have seen you post this numerous times, but the fact is we really only get 2 "official" updates on the reported numbers each day. How do you expect us to fill the downtime? I am grateful for all of the posts, even the ones I disagree with. This is way better than discussing Trump 24/7.

Could you at least elaborate on why everything aside from the basic illness-prevention advice I provided in an earlier post is the worst advice in the thread instead of avoiding my request?

***bangs head against wall***

I am not going to rehash dozens of my posts, and hundreds of other people's to get you up to speed. I don't even know where to start on the cliff's notes version. Read more before you post. We have covered thousands of angles and theories at this point.

Just ignore the trolls - don't reply to them.

Starve them of oxygen they'll leave and bug someone else.

Because bringing up the low mortality rate of this virus in comparison to other more common, more (statistically) deadly viruses and advising people to be mindful, but not too worried is definitely trolling. Right?

originally posted by: elitegamer23
a reply to: Power_Semi

My 63 year old dad starts a two week cruise this Sunday . For the first time I feel like this virus has a chance of touching my life . I’m sure he will be just fine and have an amazing time though.

Part of me feels like the people in this thread who downplay this virus simply feel very safe because there is no way it will reach them in their moms basement .

LoL yes I guess they are already kind of quarantined from the rest of the world.

The only time they see another human is when mommy brings their turkey dinosaurs for lunch.

I just got this news alert about the two planes flying in people from Wuhan. They were diverted due to sick passengers apparently.
www.foxnews.com...

originally posted by: Brick17
Hello everyone. I'm new on here, that is I have opened an account for the first time. I have been coming here for years and I have been following this thread since Part 1.

So why have I joined? Simple really, what is happening with the Coronavirus and in China is both extrordinary and unprecedented. I also believe that this event is not what is seems and feel I must share what I can and am able to, in order to better inform people.

About me. I have been in the UK military for a long time and am stationed on an MOD establishment in a rural area. I am not going to give my service, rank, appointment, trade, cap badge, unit, location or any other details. Neither am I privy to any important or classified information (and I certainly would not discuss such). What I am happy to discuss is how I see things from a military perspective in regards to Military Aid to the Civil Authority.

What I can tell you, which anyone who knows someone who works there would know anyway is in reference to the recent processing of UK evacuees from China who landed at RAF Brize Norton. The hanger which was used to 'meet & greet' has since been decontaminated and placed out of bounds to all personnel. The hanger was not in use prior to this. I'm happy to share this on an open forum as this information is common knowledge amongst both civil employees and service personnel, is known locally and no doubt out in the the public domain because of this.

Thanks for your post.
Your advice will prove instrumental in the coming few weeks.

Yesterday, I posted my concern with some countries not reporting any cases at all (Laos, North Korea). The link below digs into another country that had me concerned: Indonesia

Indonesia is not reporting cases, nor even testing for them

They have not even tested the 238 people that came directly from Wuhan. This article covers Cambodia and Thailand as well. I had a bad feeling about the low numbers from some of those countries, and now it is being justified.

originally posted by: tennisdawg
Yesterday, I posted my concern with some countries not reporting any cases at all (Laos, North Korea). The link below digs into another country that had me concerned: Indonesia

Indonesia is not reporting cases, nor even testing for them

They have not even tested the 238 people that came directly from Wuhan. This article covers Cambodia and Thailand as well. I had a bad feeling about the low numbers from some of those countries, and now it is being justified.

Indonesia is part of the WHO, shouldn't they be obliged to do so?

a reply to: CrazeeWorld777

This is where I started posting and where I’m staying.

Do not have time to follow umpteen threads on this.

Most of what I’ve contributed is facts or nearly confirmed facts as best I’m able. No one has raised massive objection to things I’ve posted. And I’ve healthy debated what I feel is the mounting evidence the virus is man made.

I’m not leaving and will continue to post relevant info and help others contextually by answering questions based my first hand knowledge of China.

I think those wanting a “verified news feed” should stick to MSM. This is a conspiracy forum, we do theorizing from available info real good.

originally posted by: DetectiveT
In work. Sorry haven't seen this yet after scanning some of the more recent posts. A cruise ship in Bayonne NJ docked 6 a.m. this morning and they removed passengers by ambulance to as of now an undisclosed location.

I'm in the Tri-State area fairly close to Manhattan. Close enough to see the planes hit the towers, at least one of them with my own eyes, to give you perspective. I've seen an uptick in people wearing masks on subways and buses. It's not at panic levels but a definite increase.

Businesses are starting to hurt. Talked to one guy and he was laid off and another friend of mine lost hours in a Chinese owned warehouse as their inventory comes from China and that has stopped he said. They hope it is just the New Year Celebration and things will pick up again as usual but they are beginning to suspect it wont turn around so quick.

A fear of anyone who even remotely looks Chinese is simmering. I hear the comments. Sure some are jokes and kinda funny but that's also growing to and a little dangerous if left unchecked. There was an incident involving an attack as well.

Overall everything is still running normally and people going about their day.

Thanks for posting this!

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Dolby_X
who is spreading fake news now ?
a reply to: Necrose

yes it is in lock down here official news ....

google translate:

At noon on February 7, the Guangzhou City Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention Command for New Coronavirus Infection issued the No. 3 Circular on Further Strengthening Community and Rural Epidemic Prevention and Control, which requires the concentration of culture and entertainment in the village living room. Places are always closed. All residential communities (villages) in the city are closed. Strengthen the management of people (vehicles) access, and restrict non-owners (villages) owners, residents or users and vehicles from entering the property management area. All entrances and exits shall be provided with prevention and control card points, and resident personnel shall enter and exit with their credentials and perform temperature monitoring.

m.xinhuanet.com...

That's one BS source, not even DOOMSDAY twitter accounts and news websites are reporting this, totally made up, crooked words, they were just advised not to gather outside etc to limit possible exposure, not a lockdown like in the Hubei province !!!

Ok CCP boy, calm down. Guess we’ll see won’t we. You’ve been on shift a lot today. Could you let us know the REAL figures for Wuhan and Hubei? That would be good. Stop all the hysterical speculation that I’m actually NOT seeing at all here.

originally posted by: logicsoda

originally posted by: tennisdawg

originally posted by: logicsoda
Not even 1000 deaths out of the many thousands that have contracted the virus? Based on the current statistics, it's significantly less fatal than the flu/pneumonia.

It's definitely worth it to be aware of this highly contagious virus and take preventative measures, but that's all it is--a highly contagious virus with a very low mortality rate.

The level of fear-mongering is insane. Wash your hands, use hand sanitizer, drink plenty of fluids, get enough rest, exercise, etc.
Statistically you're more likely to die from the flu than this virus.

You somehow managed to give both the best advice (bolded) and the worst advice (everything else you said) in the same post. Amazing.

Please elaborate. How is everything else I said the worst advice? It's about a 2% mortality rate. Based on numbers from 2017 - 2018, influenza/pneumonia had almost an 11% mortality rate.

It's good advice to be mindful of this virus, but also important to understand that it's not nearly as bad as the media is portraying it, especially given the statistics.

This is misleading. 11% mortality rate may be correct for cases of Pneumonia that develop from Flu (I haven't checked), but Flu does not have an 11% CFR. You were quoted a few posts earlier as saying "It's like a new, less-harmful flu virus". You compare to flu, then quote figures for Influenza Pneumonia.

To compare this sort of figure to nCoV, you would need to calculate the CFR from number of patients who developed severe Pneumonia from nCoV, and from there compare who died and who survived. This figure would be much higher than the overall CFR for nCoV.

Inside Quarantine: Ben realises his mask is upside down and news on return to teaching


On the good news front, Ben was in Wuhan and done some reporting of the local situation when the quarantine went into place. He got one of the flights out and is in day 6 of quarantine along with the other passengers of the flight. So far so good and all is well considering.

originally posted by: elitegamer23
a reply to: Power_Semi
Part of me feels like the people in this thread who downplay this virus simply feel very safe because there is no way it will reach them in their moms basement .

Personally, I haven't seen people downplay this virus. I have COPD (28% lung function) and an immunodeficiency, but I also am able to cut through the bull# and see this from a logical point of view.

What we know right now based on this thread:

1.) "On January 24 2020 there were: 869 confirmed cases worldwide, including 26 fatalities"
That is about a 3% mortality rate.

2.) "The WHO declared a global health emergency on Jan 31"
OK. As they should, considering how rapidly this virus is spreading. They want to limit the spread of the virus as much as possible so that it doesn't mutate into something much more serious, which is a huge possibility with something so contagious. Currently, though... the statistics don't lie--compared to the influenza virus/pneumonia, this virus is 7% - 8% less fatal, with influenza having a 10% - 11% mortality rate in the 2017 - 2018 influenza season.



I did a little digging, and found the following: according to the latest from aljazeera.com (not sure how credible this source is):


More than 31000 infected. 636 deaths. 636/31000 = 0.0205, so 2% have died out of 31000. Were these healthy individuals? Individuals who were immunosuppressed? Were they elderly? Not enough info, but even so... that's statistically pretty #ing insignificant. That's not to say that you should go into Wuhan and let people cough on you, nor is it to say that you shouldn't avoid people with the virus, but it's also not something that we should be worrying frantically over. You ought to be more worried about the flu than this virus based on the statistics alone. See here, from the CDC:


Check this for the full report on the 2018-2019 season... it had a 9.6% mortality rate. Thus far, we have between a 2% and 3% mortality rate for this virus.

Be mindful of this #, but don't be frantically panicking like so many other parts of the world. It's contagious and should be monitored, but statistically you should be worrying more about influenza than this #.

originally posted by: logicsoda

originally posted by: elitegamer23
a reply to: Power_Semi
Part of me feels like the people in this thread who downplay this virus simply feel very safe because there is no way it will reach them in their moms basement .

Personally, I haven't seen people downplay this virus. I have COPD (28% lung function) and an immunodeficiency, but I also am able to cut through the bull# and see this from a logical point of view.

What we know right now based on this thread:

1.) "On January 24 2020 there were: 869 confirmed cases worldwide, including 26 fatalities"
That is about a 3% mortality rate.

2.) "The WHO declared a global health emergency on Jan 31"
OK. As they should, considering how rapidly this virus is spreading. They want to limit the spread of the virus as much as possible so that it doesn't mutate into something much more serious, which is a huge possibility with something so contagious. Currently, though... the statistics don't lie--compared to the influenza virus/pneumonia, this virus is 7% - 8% less fatal, with influenza having a 10% - 11% mortality rate in the 2017 - 2018 influenza season.



I did a little digging, and found the following: according to the latest from aljazeera.com (not sure how credible this source is):


More than 31000 infected. 636 deaths. 636/31000 = 0.0205, so 2% have died out of 31000. Were these healthy individuals? Individuals who were immunosuppressed? Were they elderly? Not enough info, but even so... that's statistically pretty #ing insignificant. That's not to say that you should go into Wuhan and let people cough on you, nor is it to say that you shouldn't avoid people with the virus, but it's also not something that we should be worrying frantically over. You ought to be more worried about the flu than this virus based on the statistics alone. See here, from the CDC:


Check this for the full report on the 2018-2019 season... it had a 9.6% mortality rate. Thus far, we have between a 2% and 3% mortality rate for this virus.

Be mindful of this #, but don't be frantically panicking like so many other parts of the world. It's contagious and should be monitored, but statistically you should be worrying more about influenza than this #.

Thats not how you calculate mortality..... you compare deaths only to people who recover...

a reply to: Power_Semi

Give it a rest. My husband works with colleagues in China and has Chinese coworkers who have family back in China. You better believe this is very, very real, but at the same time his career has been working in and around disease. Knowledge has a way of blunting panic.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Advantage
"originally posted by: butcherguy
Here it is again, the NIH says that studies show that coronavirus can survive for as long as 28 days on surfaces (stainless steel was used in the study) , depending on relative humidity and temperature.
NIH"

I understand very well that this critter behaves differently ... but I just cant believe that. If that were true, Id be terrified.

Just because something can survive for as much as 28 days, doesn't mean it always, or even usually, does. That figure is determined under lab conditions.

Yes, I said 'CAN'.
The study was done to check viability in 'medical facility settings'. In other words, they were simulating hospital settings. They weren't doing the study to see how long it can survive in a lab. They wanted to see how long it can survive in a hospital that would be seeing the virus present.

Why is it that people who make a point of emphasising "logic" are often so very far from it. Comparing massively incomplete data to complete data and then acting as if empirical conclusions can be drawn is just... Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.

Compare the raw death to recovery ratio and then maybe you'll get it.

originally posted by: logicsoda
Not even 1000 deaths out of the many thousands that have contracted the virus? Based on the current statistics, it's significantly less fatal than the flu/pneumonia.

It's definitely worth it to be aware of this highly contagious virus and take preventative measures, but that's all it is--a highly contagious virus with a very low mortality rate.

The level of fear-mongering is insane. Wash your hands, use hand sanitizer, drink plenty of fluids, get enough rest, exercise, etc.

Statistically you're more likely to die from the flu than this virus.

Quick, use the CCP hotline and let them know they are wasting money and crippling their economy for no reason at all. Damn, it’s not even as bad as seasonal flu. WHAR are they thinking?

originally posted by: logicsoda

originally posted by: elitegamer23
a reply to: Power_Semi
Part of me feels like the people in this thread who downplay this virus simply feel very safe because there is no way it will reach them in their moms basement .

Personally, I haven't seen people downplay this virus. I have COPD (28% lung function) and an immunodeficiency, but I also am able to cut through the bull# and see this from a logical point of view.

What we know right now based on this thread:

1.) "On January 24 2020 there were: 869 confirmed cases worldwide, including 26 fatalities"
That is about a 3% mortality rate.

2.) "The WHO declared a global health emergency on Jan 31"
OK. As they should, considering how rapidly this virus is spreading. They want to limit the spread of the virus as much as possible so that it doesn't mutate into something much more serious, which is a huge possibility with something so contagious. Currently, though... the statistics don't lie--compared to the influenza virus/pneumonia, this virus is 7% - 8% less fatal, with influenza having a 10% - 11% mortality rate in the 2017 - 2018 influenza season.



I did a little digging, and found the following: according to the latest from aljazeera.com (not sure how credible this source is):


More than 31000 infected. 636 deaths. 636/31000 = 0.0205, so 2% have died out of 31000. Were these healthy individuals? Individuals who were immunosuppressed? Were they elderly? Not enough info, but even so... that's statistically pretty #ing insignificant. That's not to say that you should go into Wuhan and let people cough on you, nor is it to say that you shouldn't avoid people with the virus, but it's also not something that we should be worrying frantically over. You ought to be more worried about the flu than this virus based on the statistics alone. See here, from the CDC:


Check this for the full report on the 2018-2019 season... it had a 9.6% mortality rate. Thus far, we have between a 2% and 3% mortality rate for this virus.

Be mindful of this #, but don't be frantically panicking like so many other parts of the world. It's contagious and should be monitored, but statistically you should be worrying more about influenza than this #.

I'm sorry, but this is just complete nonsense. From your own source I quote:

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

That's 34200 deaths from 35.5million. That's a mortality rate of 0.1%. So from your own source and figures, nCoV is therefore 20-30 times more deadly than flu

There is no way the numbers are accurate... So stop comparing numbers.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: TrulyColorBlind

originally posted by: Necrose
Here is what’s going to happen:

Tomorrow stats for Wuhan (approx.)
New cases : 2300
Deaths 45

ATS tomorrow be like : It’s gone PARABOLIC!
😂😂

A month from now: 0 new cases
ATS be like: they ran out of testing kits, it’s actually 350,000 a day now and spreading

You might also add that this is just your opinion and has no basis in reality for the day you gave it. That way, other readers of this thread will be able to know the facts from the falacies. You're not intentionally trying to spread misinformation are you?

What are you on about? I was obviously exaggerating the reaction of ATS users in regards to the numbers of confirmed cases. If that wasn’t clear enough for you, I’m sorry.

Oh. So, what was it you were attempting to do? Add misinformation or disinformation? Because "exaggerating" the information is not productive to this thread; it's not needed or wanted.