Hurricane Irma strengthening in the Atlantic

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: violet


Thanks for the cone map, Violet. Based on that projection, what are the odds that the U.S. will receive an Irma landfall?

Things can still change once it passes over land , but my best guess is it should affect Florida. I'm not sure yet if it will enter the gulf

There's more info in the advisories I provided.

I didn't give it a good read yet. Just got online.

It will also depend on how wide this thing is, for the full windfield.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: violet


Thanks for the cone map, Violet. Based on that projection, what are the odds that the U.S. will receive an Irma landfall?

Here's the best answer from the info above. They still don't know ....


It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have
on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

a reply to: violet


Thank-you again. Hopefully, whoever doesn't have flood insurance, will buy some ASAP. I was amazed by how many people in S.E. Texas didn't have flood insurance.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: violet


Thank-you again. Hopefully, whoever doesn't have flood insurance, will buy some ASAP. I was amazed by how many people in S.E. Texas didn't have flood insurance.

I don't know why they didn't, it must be expensive due to the likelihood.

originally posted by: violet

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: violet


Thank-you again. Hopefully, whoever doesn't have flood insurance, will buy some ASAP. I was amazed by how many people in S.E. Texas didn't have flood insurance.

I don't know why they didn't, it must be expensive due to the likelihood.

Maybe when the government sends Billions of Dollars to disaster zones, people get a new, or rebuilt home courtesy of taxpayers. Flood Insurance wasn't needed. $$$$ saved.

originally posted by: carewemust

originally posted by: violet

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: violet


Thank-you again. Hopefully, whoever doesn't have flood insurance, will buy some ASAP. I was amazed by how many people in S.E. Texas didn't have flood insurance.

I don't know why they didn't, it must be expensive due to the likelihood.

Maybe when the government sends Billions of Dollars to disaster zones, people get a new, or rebuilt home courtesy of taxpayers. Flood Insurance wasn't needed. $$$$ saved.

Possibly. Not sure how that all works out, I think their property must be in a declared disaster zone though.

Do they really get their homes rebuilt for free? I thought they just got food and shelter

I feel safe in the confidence that MacDill air force base has some kind of weather manipulation technology that prevents severe storms from directly hitting Tampa Bay region. We have done quite well in the last decade as cat 1's and 2's splashed directly North, South, and East of us. If the hurricane hits from the East florida, even at a 5 it will lose much power by the time its hits my area. My concern is if it loops around the tip of Florida and the rides the west coast going North. George did that in 2004 and things got messy for the Naples and Ft. Myers/Cape coral area. Not to mention there were giant oaks down all over the city in Tampa. I saw a few of them on houses and vehicles.

But as I said, I am confident in the belief MacDill has something to do with us staying safe in Tampa, even though we are technically one of the most vulnerable urban centers in all of the US from a direct hit.

Will be a cat 4 within 2 days

a reply to: violet

Im betting on Cat 5 by Friday myself. This time, I will be documenting anything I can.

a reply to: worldstarcountry
I think it might get to cat 5 as well
Stay safe!

a reply to: worldstarcountry

Pretty big, fat bogus claim, since the record of "deflection" stretches well into years prior to any such tech ever existing. Historical records have a way of showing it's always managed to dodge most hurricane bullets. Tampa Bay is just in a good spot for pressure systems & fronts dipping down from the north to act as a natural shield. MacDill has diddly s# to do with that.

The computer models have shifted left(further southand west), this puts Cuba and South Florida in the crosshairs.

Now tge storm is threat, NOAA is doing a lot more atmosphere sampling, this gives the computer models much more information and better outputs. Many spots across the US are launching 4 weather baloons a day now.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0324Z MON SEP 04 2017

The 00Z GFS is running on time. In addition to the normal
complement of 00Z raobs...10 dropsonde observations were
available courtesy of NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the
vicinity of Irma.

Special 6-hourly soundings are requested from the following sites
starting at 18Z Monday: BIS, UNR, LBF, DDC, AMA, ABR, OAX, TOP,
OUN, INL, MPX, SGF, LZK, DVN, ILX, GRB, APX, DTX, ILN, OHX, and
SJU.

Handel/SDM/NCO/NCEP

originally posted by: carewemust

originally posted by: violet

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: violet


Thank-you again. Hopefully, whoever doesn't have flood insurance, will buy some ASAP. I was amazed by how many people in S.E. Texas didn't have flood insurance.

I don't know why they didn't, it must be expensive due to the likelihood.

Maybe when the government sends Billions of Dollars to disaster zones, people get a new, or rebuilt home courtesy of taxpayers. Flood Insurance wasn't needed. $$$$ saved.

The only thing the people get is a low interest loan. They don't get new homes for free. They still have to repay for those homes and often at fives what they originally paid for it, and for another 15 to 30 years.

I don't think it is unreasonable that they get a lower interest rate on their loans since banks will gouge them when they can least afford it.

this was rather an interesting breakdown of the hurricane, and where it might go, all the time saying that things could change...
without the hype...

originally posted by: dawnstar
this was rather an interesting breakdown of the hurricane, and where it might go, all the time saying that things could change...
without the hype...

Thanks for this.

Anything past 5 days for a prediction is garbage but ventusky.com shows this turning from cuba up into florida on the east side. This is 7 days out so take it with a grain of salt.




But for 5 days out it is showing it curving into Cuba and going right up to almost Havana before going north.

I would upload that picture too but anything I upload disappears... Tried to upload a bunch of pics and only this one made it into my library... What gives?

Edit: After all that it uploaded the wrong picture! Oh well I'll leave it in. This was taken on August 30th for a prediction for September 8th.

a reply to: violet

if it doesn't fizzle out methinks it may make landfall between Cape Canaveral and Charlotte, if I had real time water temperature and barometric pressure readings I could be more precise.

I told some members long before Harvey hit to prepare because it would start to party, and it did. If the currents are warm and the pressure is low then be on alert, and if the storm slows as it hits the gulf stream, It might get nasty. II'd pay close attention on the eye-the smaller the eye the stronger the storm.

It's far too early to call but if you see the eye shrink in the weather reports, it's about to boogy, either way those holidaying in the Caribbean might want to return home as the weather will turn south.

a reply to: Nyiah
Perhaps. I caught a lovely sunset at Honeymoon Island the other day, it sure was serene. You should move back South again, you know you miss this region!

Interestingly enough, Honeymoon Island and Caladesi Island use to be one island. It was cut in half by a Hurricane in 1921. and then Ironically, Caladesi became attached to clear water beach in 1985 by, you guessed it, another Hurricane! I take the ferry to Caladesi every couple of months. It is an amazing visit. I sure hope you hopped the islands along the coast in the time you were here. I do it all the time with the kiddos, we love paradise.
a reply to: LOLZebra
Your images have to be less than 2mb in file size, or the server will not accept their upload.

originally posted by: NightSkyeB4Dawn

originally posted by: carewemust

originally posted by: violet

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: violet


Thank-you again. Hopefully, whoever doesn't have flood insurance, will buy some ASAP. I was amazed by how many people in S.E. Texas didn't have flood insurance.

I don't know why they didn't, it must be expensive due to the likelihood.

Maybe when the government sends Billions of Dollars to disaster zones, people get a new, or rebuilt home courtesy of taxpayers. Flood Insurance wasn't needed. $$$$ saved.

The only thing the people get is a low interest loan. They don't get new homes for free. They still have to repay for those homes and often at fives what they originally paid for it, and for another 15 to 30 years.

I don't think it is unreasonable that they get a lower interest rate on their loans since banks will gouge them when they can least afford it.

Well, at least they won't be making two mortgage payments. But nevertheless, having flood insurance is the smart way to go, as long as the company doesn't try to weasel out, due to "act of God".