Hurricane Irma strengthening in the Atlantic

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

I supposed to fly to the Caribbean on Tuesday so I have my eye on this one. The projections put it right in our path.

The Caribbean is looking to be a likely path. It's currently tracking west, southwest.
Best to keep an eye on it!

Would be extremely creepy if this storm hit NYC directly on September 11

originally posted by: violet
The Caribbean is looking to be a likely path. It's currently tracking west, southwest.
Best to keep an eye on it!

Yeah, and my flight is only a 1/3 full so if it even comes near I think it's cancelled.

IRMA....

the nearest I got was an IRENE... SO the new storm IRMA ain't got no fury to unleash on me

anyone else keep a tally of their list in alphabetical order ?

CNN started projecting a U.S. landfall for IRMA as soon as it became a named storm... like 3 days ago. That network loves it when Americans suffer.

a reply to: violet


I have been reading here & on Facebook today. Somewhere I saw something that said Irma could develop into a category 5. Lost the article before I could read it, but it really is too soon to say something like that.

But everybody is probably gun-shy by now, or should I say hurricane-shy! They probably don't want anyone saying they weren't given enough warning either!

Just like in places that have tornadoes & Nor'easter snow storms. If you doom warn too far ahead & nothing happens, people say, pffft they are never right & next time ignore the forecasts.

If they wait until it's definite, all the procrastinators are caught with their pants down!
Almost a lose/lose situation!

I am always amazed when they show people rushing to buy plywood when a hurricane is coming, especially in Florida! Dude, you live in Florida! Where is the plywood you bought the last time? Don't they save it? SMH!

WOQ

a reply to: St Udio

Glad I'm not living on that coast. We just get the remnants of cyclones and the usual arctic storms. Not really property damaging scenarios. I'm sure at one point my turn will come to be in a disaster.

a reply to: wasobservingquietly
Yes I've seen that mentioned a few times it will be a Cat 5!
Too early to tell. Need another week to get a better idea.

So they really don't keep plywood stocked up?

a reply to: violet


It doesn't ever look like it from what they show on the news! There are always long lines of pickup trucks at the hardware stores. They always run out of plywood!

If I lived in a hurricane prone area, I wouldn't want to chance not being able to get it when I needed it! Keep it in the garage! No garage, tie
it up in the beams of the carport! No carport, nail it up under the floor joists under the house!
Weather too damp? Paint it & seal the heck out of it! House on a concrete slab, get a shed! There's always a way!

We can get big snowstorms here & sometimes the power goes out. When we bought our house we made sure we had at least a small generator, wood burner, lanterns, sleeping bags, bottled water, canned goods, extra batteries, TP, diapers, whatever! No way I would want to say, if only we had...!

When we were just starting out & couldn't afford to get everything at once, we at least started with flashlights, extra batteries, extra blankets on sale at the end of winter, or from yard sales.
Whenever we got groceries I would pick up a couple extra cans of stuff that was on sale & put it away. It added up! It's like a kind of insurance!

If I had to live in tornado alley, I would look for a place with a storm shelter or basement. Being prepared sure reduces stress levels! Just a common sense thing. The hardest thing to do, is try to think straight during an emergency situation! You get 'panic brain'!

I think the worst disaster though, would be one where you have to evacuate! You could be the most prepared person ever, but if you have to leave quickly, you can only take so much with you! That's when it would be great to have relatives spread out all over the US! Lol!

Some people probably think it could never happen to them. But I wonder what percentage of people who have been through one disaster, neglect to prepare for the next one?! Some people will never learn though!

WOQ

a reply to: wasobservingquietly
I'd be the same having plywood if I lived there. I was like you thinking it's a storage issue, but this stuff is flat, put it under a bed.

I never get why people wait until a snow storm to buy a snow shovel! They're all sold out then. Which reminds me I must stock up on de-icer salts once they are in the stores. I have back up plan cat litter crystals though.

I have power outage Bag , batteries, old style radio, flashlights, old style landline phone you plug in. Etc, etc. I heard quite a few on the news saying they had to wade through water to use a neighbours old school phone. Well maybe newer homes don't even have the phone jacks, but it's a good idea to get one installed, get a landline phone. My regular cordless landline doesnt work in a power outage. My cell phone battery dies , but I have a back up charger for that

Failure to plan is a plan to fail.

a reply to: violet


Lol! Thanks for the chuckle! I completely forgot about the snow shovel scenario! So true!

I have back up cat litter too. And we always keep a big bag of the cheap, crunchy, dollar store kind in the car in the winter in case we get stuck somewhere or need traction on ice. It has come in handy a couple of times!

One winter it was especially icy here & the stores couldn't keep the ice melt in stock. When we ran out we used table salt, baking soda, even rubbing alcohol! One of the best tips I ever read, was if your car door lock freezes, put some hand sanitizer on the key before you insert it or squirt some directly in the lock. The alcohol in it is supposed to melt the ice. Never needed to try it & a lot of people have push button fobs now, but it's still good to know. The lock on the house door could get icy too. I always carry one of those little sample bottles of hand sanitizer in my purse, just in case!
I guess it works to hold the end of the key in the flame of a lighter until it's hot too.

I forgot about the radio. Youngest son got us one of those battery powdered, hand crank type ones, with all kinds of gizmos on it! It has an LED lantern, flashlight, red SOS light, alarm siren, USB port & cell phone charger! It should cover just about anything. Best gift ever!

Our kids kept telling us that since we both have cell phones, we should ditch our landline phone!
They didn't get it. Told them the landline phone still works when the power goes out! They said, how often do the cell phone towers go out?

Famous last words! The cell phone towers were down a few times since then! Of course daughter was very glad she was at work with a landline when it happened! But the first time it happened was late at night. TV cable went out, internet was gone, power was next, then the cell phones, & the radio station went off the air. Complete & utter isolation! We were able to call the electric company & find out what had happened & how long it would be before they expected power to be restored!

Score one for the old people! Lol!
I look at the landline as a form of insurance too. You never know when you might need to call the fire department or ambulance during a power outage!

The same thing happened when Virginia had the 5.8 earthquake that we could feel here. Oldest daughter always says that I waste my time paying attention to earthquakes that have nothing to do with us!
She must have told the people she works with about 'my earthquakes'. She works on the second floor of the hospital & as soon as their chairs started shaking, they said, quick, call your Mom!
I bet she knows what just happened! Ha, ha! Score another one for the old people!

Well, at least we are aware & as prepared as we can be. Because someday, there may be a lot of people, with a lot of questions & needing a lot of help! Hopefully we will be able to give them some answers & advice!

WOQ

a reply to: wasobservingquietly

Cell towers do go down. Happened to me one night as well. Power outage, no cable, no internet on my phone, couldn't text, make calls and you can't charge your cell phone if there's no power. My daughter makes fun of me as well. Then later she'll say ok you're right. One time right when a heatwave started I said " I'd buy the fan now if I were you, they will be sold out, this is like trying to get a snow shovel in a snowstorm" . Days later she is so hot, can't find a fan anywhere.

Last year she was going on a winter road trip where it's known to snow. I'm like " seriously you're gonna take your white car? If you go over a cliff , how can they spot you from a helicopter search when you blend in with the snow? " We had a friend who's son was missing for 8 days and they finally found his Orange car from the air because it was orange. He went over a cliff trapped in his car and miraculously survived. They made a movie about it called 8 days to love I think. Pays not to blend in with the landscape!


That radio thing you got sounds neat.

Making sure this gets seen by folks who may eventually have reason to worry. Jeff Masters' most recent blog post on Wunderground.

As I've said in another thread, even the comments are a treasure trove worth paying attention to. I parked it on these posts for years during hurricane season when one was looking iffy when we lived in FL, they're well worth the educational reading, if nothing else.

That's going to be to most recent model runs & satellite screen grabs you're going to get (in one place) without digging for them yourselves.

As for the blog post itself, take a closer look at the spaghetti runs posted. Notice how they're not liking New England much right now? Yesterday, they weren't liking the Florida region much.
It's just too early to freak out yet, this is going to keep bouncing around for a few more days before it narrows to a consistently worrisome landfall area, if it hits land at all.

A good rule of thumb I always went by was to pay attention to the Hurricane Fan Club in the comments. If they weren't getting twitchy yet, I had no reason to, either.
They're not twitchy yet, it's not time to freak out yet.

Dear ATS Readers, Writers,

S&F to you violet for this post.

Keep an eye on this folks...see where we are at a week from now.

Pravdaseeker


a reply to: violet

I only wish people would take care of their animals beforehand..
And not abandon them or forgetting them..
Getting trapped and suffocating or dying of stress..
Please send me your pets if you plan riding these storms out.. they do not understand the excitement or death wish you may feel, they only feel pure terror.. and panic because they think they must protect its owners and the same time dying of a heart attack.

originally posted by: violet

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

I supposed to fly to the Caribbean on Tuesday so I have my eye on this one. The projections put it right in our path.

The Caribbean is looking to be a likely path. It's currently tracking west, southwest.
Best to keep an eye on it!

If you're speaking of Caribbean proper, I doubt it's going that far south, it's too far north for that. Granted, anything can happen (*cough* Charley's sudden right hook *cough*) but the current atmospheric conditions keep it more northern periphery than directly through.

I've been checking the ensembles coming out this run this afternoon (final propagations should finish up here by 4pm) and they seem to have it skirting the northern Leewards/Puerto Rico (northeast Caribbean rim) Then rolling over the Bahamas, skirting the FL east coast and from there out, it's anyone's guess (landfall or out to sea)

The current model consensus seems to have New England in the crosshairs, but -- and I stress 'but' here -- anything past 5 days is a complete wild card guess. It's just a guess, and not very reliable no matter what model is used. Just because one model's ensembles say maybe doesn't mean a definite yes this far out.

Put it this way -- if we're not sure how things are going to set up for us regionally in a week+, then it's the same for Irma. My (or your) weather may be pleasant and sunny, or it may not. There's no sure bets on that yet, no one can say with absolute certainty where the high & low pressure systems are going to be or how strong, and that's also an ingredient for hurricane path predication (and a pretty important one)

We'll have a much better idea of what's going to happen with Irma around Monday. As far as I can see, the Caribbean isn't going to have Irma roll in down there. The northeast Caribbean rim might.

Latest predictive tracking models of it's possible paths:



As you can see: all over the place for now:

Source

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: butcherguy

There's only one model in all that that brings it to tidewater.
North carolina is our buffer.

You are correct.
The Outer Banks take the brunt of a lot of storms since they stick out there the way that they do.

It was a risky prediction, but I am going to stick by it. I think it turns NW on Sunday night and then hooks West next week, shortly before landfall..... just North of VA Beach.

And I didn't say it just because you live there.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

I supposed to fly to the Caribbean on Tuesday so I have my eye on this one. The projections put it right in our path.

Fun vacation! You could head for California we are only burning at the moment.

& an interesting tidbit of info...

That early August through mid-October period encompasses the heart of the hurricane season, when tropical easterly waves coming off western Africa are most vigorous, shearing winds that could rip apart a developing tropical system in the zone between Africa and the Lesser Antilles are lowest, and sea-surface temperatures are at their warmest. Thus, an "I" storm, in a typical year, has a better chance to be a long-lived, intense hurricane, with these generally favorable factors in play.

Eight Hurricanes That Start With "I" Have Been Retired Since 2001

leolady