Catastrophic rainfall predicted for TX, LA, gulf coast region.

a reply to: ketsuko

The rain threat is a no brainer.

Bastardi gets mixed reviews in the meteorology world. I used to watch his tropical weather discussion, before accuweather started charging. I have found NOAA and Wunderground give me the best forecasts with Accuweather way behind.

Bastardi is right, the rain will be the biggest threat. The major winds will be mostly a coastal event with the strongest winds affecting a relatively small area, especially compared the rain.

Isolated small (ef0, ef1)tornadoes are possible also.

Not much change on the new advisory(4pm cdt), pressure is a little lower, 976mb, winds are still 85mph.

Hopefully the rapid intensification is coming to an end.

a reply to: jrod

Even the model runs are showing the storm being stuck on the coast. There is one model that shows it being kicked up across the state toward Kansas/Missouri border. The rest have it hobbled.

Dear ATS Readers, Writers,

I originally said don't be surprised to see it develop into a Cat 3 storm.

It was the extreme rain I was concerned about as well. I got an email from my friend in the Houston area, and he said they were getting heaps of rain at the time he sent me his email.

I don't know if storms in the USA can wind up quickly as they can in Australia, my guess is if the conditions are right, they can. Over very warm water... check... moving slowly, I think it is still slowly moving... check...

A person I knew at the time lived north of New Orleans when the big flood and hurricane hit there. He was an offshore oil rig worker. A big rough, tough type of bloke. He told me he was under his house, crying, and hugging the foundation wall during that storm. He had 2 big pine trees come down next to his house, Only one took out the corner of the roof.

It was by sheer luck the trees did not fall where he was hiding underneath. He told me he would never again try to be the tough guy and ride out the storm at home; he would leave before the storm got there from now on.

He thought he would go mad before the winds would die down...

The original post, was not intended to be doom porn..ha; just a heads up for a bucket load of rain...and possible hurricane happening.

It is true that a lot of the weather stations follow in the footsteps of the news that they follow in telecasts.. some do whip up the doom factor on weather. It plays into the meme they are trying to brainwash everyone with, weather worse, (not really), and it caused by man, (not really again, try the sun and other natural mechanisms).

If cranks up to a Cat 4 as some predict, and with a bucket load of rain, might some escape routes be flooded too much for travel? And some people get caught up in the mess?

This is why I say just leave whilst you can, get a hotel for 3 days...come back to nothing happened to your house, OR..... to pick up the pieces. Better safe than sorry.

Pravdaseeker



a reply to: pravdaseeker

a reply to: pravdaseeker

We did just have some of the outer bands move through the area.

This is the time of year when thunderstorms can pop up and drop nearly a foot of rain on you with no notice.

Tropical systems increase that due to the motions of the system and can dump lots of rain in a small area in a short period of time in an effect called "training."

Definitely want to be prepared.

As I've mentioned before, tropical storms Allison and Francis flooded parts of Houston in the past and something similar is certainly likely with Harvey.

Portions of the Texas Gulf Coast have been called to a mandatory evacuation now:

MANDATORY EVACUATION:
Aransas Pass - Mandatory evacuation order issued
Brazoria County - Mandatory evacuation order issued for coastal communities along the Gulf side of the Intracoastal Waterway
Calhoun County - Mandatory evacuation order issued
Matagorda County - Everyone south of FM521 is included in the mandatory evacuation order, including the communities of Palacios, Collegeport, Matagorda, Sargent and Wadsworth.

VOLUNTARY EVACUATION:
Bolivar Peninsula - Galveston County Judge Mark Henry has issued a voluntary evacuation for residents on Bolivar Peninsula effective Friday, Aug. 25 at 8 a.m. This order includes the unincorporated areas of Port Bolivar, Crystal Beach, High Island and Gilchrist. Residents who rely on medical assistance or those who cannot go without power for an extended period of time are encouraged to leave.
Brazoria County - Voluntary evacuation order issued for low-lying coastal areas inland of Intracoastal Waterway.
Calhoun County - A voluntary evacuation order has been issued for Smith Point, Cedar Point, all RV parks, those living in unanchored mobile homes and other low-lying areas known to flood.
Galveston's West End - Voluntary Evacuation called for those with medical or access and functional needs on the West End of Galveston.

ABC13

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

I don't know, but as wet as it has been up in our neck of the woods, if it's been at all like that down where this is ... I'd be adding storm surge to rainfall and thinking time to go.

a reply to: ketsuko

Fortunately, the ground isn't saturated around my part of town.

We've had about the normal amount of rain for this time of year, but this will certainly up the average.

A star for you netwarrior, good point you made, and quite possible too.

When we have those Biblical floods here in Australia, I forgot about the bloody snakes and ants...

People in the Cape York had snakes in their homes, and one came home to find a good sized saltwater croc swimming in their living room! So yeah, listen up folks.. netwarrior is right.

I drive through these towns on occasion here in Australia that were flooded badly.. if it were not for the pictures and video's you would never think it could happen in some of these places.

It was a terrible disaster for a lot of towns, the insurance companies had massive payouts; but hardly anybody was lost, as in killed. When a cyclone is headed your way in Australia, only a fool hangs around to ride one out if they are looking down the barrel of a decent sized cyclone.

It is better to err on the side of caution than to grieve the injury or loss of a loved one.

Pravdaseeker






a reply to: netwarrior

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Allison was no joke. It inundated downtown Houston and destroyed thousands of homes and businesses. I remember reading how people in houses, cars and elevators were trapped and killed. It was the only tropical storm that had its name retired without ever becoming a hurricane.

I just fear we are going to witness the same thing with Harvey.

a reply to: texasgirl

Yep, I think Allison is the one the flooded all the underground in downtown Houston.

Hopefully people in low lying areas remember that and plan accordingly.

This new report includes images from past storms. Going to get rough.



Military jets moved to Ft. Worth



Footage from the International Space Station today of Hurricane Harvey.



A hurricane hunter plane is flying now, according to Weather Underground.

Oil refineries in the hurricane impact area

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: ketsuko

The rain threat is a no brainer.

Bastardi gets mixed reviews in the meteorology world. I used to watch his tropical weather discussion, before accuweather started charging. I have found NOAA and Wunderground give me the best forecasts with Accuweather way behind.

Bastardi is right, the rain will be the biggest threat. The major winds will be mostly a coastal event with the strongest winds affecting a relatively small area, especially compared the rain.

Isolated small (ef0, ef1)tornadoes are possible also.

Not much change on the new advisory(4pm cdt), pressure is a little lower, 976mb, winds are still 85mph.

Hopefully the rapid intensification is coming to an end.

Does anyone have a problem with weather networks charging for life and death detail information of storm tracks? I think it is despicable and should be a standard app and only activates when such conditions are in your area based on your gps. They must be able to do that? Be safe ats in line of fire

Just got another automated call from the Texas City office of Emergency Management. It reiterated the previous message that our area would be experiencing tropical storm force winds even though the storm was expected to make landfall as a hurricane.

The school district will be closed as will the Texas City Dike beginning at 9 a.m. Street flooding is expected due to the high rainfall

I have battened the hatches.
It's going to be a party.

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical
Quick update:

My boss just came in and told me that the weather channel was indicating *massive* flooding all over the Texas Gulf Coast and everything from San Antonio south was going to be under feet of water.

Right before he came downstairs to tell me that, this happened:

I got an automated call from the Texas City Office of Emergency Management indicating that TC is under a Tropical Storm advisory, not a hurricane watch or warning. High amounts of rainfall are expected, but there is no danger of storm surge at this time. Evacuations are also not indicated at this time, however emergency plans should be reviewed.

For anyone who wants to sign up for the service, it can be done at the following page.

Texas City is on Galveston Bay and is home to a large number of chemical processing and petroleum refineries. If they are not worried, I am not worried.

Don't fall for the fear porn, but do use common sense!

One of my clients is a large petrochem company. They are on crisis alert just not advertising it. They are worried.

a reply to: ketsuko

Glad you mentioned storm surge and rainfall. So with rain fall and storm surge does that together increase the amount of water in the lower area's? Or does the surge retrieve quickly?

a reply to: liveandlearn

Considering that at least one storm track doesn't show the center of the storm moving very far from tomorrow to Tuesday and staying pretty much coastal so it will be able to keep drawing on the Gulf, I'd say you'd have to worry about both problems because the storm doesn't look like it's going anywhere for a few days unlike storms usually do. So you might be dealing with storm surge for days and then dealing with flooding on top of it.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Notice where they project it to be on 1pm Tuesday.

a reply to: ketsuko

Thanks. I am in DFW area so no worries here. Just didn't understand why the relationship of storm surge (which may last several days w/ high tide) was left out of the equation of rainfall related to potential flooding.

a reply to: liveandlearn

Storm surge is primarily wind driven. So surge will continue as long as strong winds continue driving it. Extra large hurricanes with extremely low low pressure centers can form a dome of water due to the pressure differential between atmospheric pressure in the eye and outside the center of circulation.

The 12 to 3 o'clock portions of the storm are called the 'dirty side' because of the direction of wind flow around the cyclonic center. It picks up all kinds of debris in it's path and pushes a lot of water. That is where the surge will be the greatest.

My lawn needs the rain.

And Saturday is the Mayweather/McGregor fight - coincidence?? I think not.

Hopefully the pond behind our house fills up a bit here in the ATX.

a reply to: texasgirl

Been a busy day. Once the talk of cat 3 started we got ready to evac. Left Rockport around 5 pm headed north.

I'll have to renig on my offer of frontline observations. Went through Wilma in 05 don't want a repeat of that.