TRUMP is winning Check This Out !

a reply to: Blue_Jay33

I'm looking forward to freakouts regardless of who wins, just with one i'll be watching from a crudely-constructed "fallout shelter" and the other from the comfort of my own home.

a reply to: Blue_Jay33

I think people may be surprised in November.

Look who is telling us how terrible Trump is: msm and establishment politicians. People are wise to these brainwashing tactics.

In public, sure a lot of folks will feign disgust for Trump, but in the privacy of a voting booth, theyll vote their hearts.

originally posted by: interupt42
a reply to: Blue_Jay33
During the Obama run there were Obama stickers and signs everywhere, I have seen literally only 1 for Hillary compared to last election and this appears to be an observation by many .

I don't put up my sticker or lawn sign in my neighborhood because I don't want my car keyed and I don't want my lawn trashed. Same reason I didn't display any Obama-positive material during the last campaign. I live just down the street from a fairly ill-tempered Republican office holder.

The Trump signs in the neighborhood and the Republican signs in my solidly Republican neighborhood have gone undamaged.

originally posted by: Urantia1111
a reply to: Blue_Jay33

I think people may be surprised in November.

Look who is telling us how terrible Trump is: msm and establishment politicians.

And women (including Republican women)
And Latinos
And Asians
And Blacks
And a lot of White men who aren't politicians.

a reply to: Byrd

I don't put up my sticker or lawn sign in my neighborhood because I don't want my car keyed and I don't want my lawn trashed. Same reason I didn't display any Obama-positive material during the last campaign. I live just down the street from a fairly ill-tempered Republican office holder.

Understandable that some feel like that and not a surprise.

However, like I stated in the last election I saw plenty of Obama stickers and only 1 sticker for Hillary. I know its an anecdotal observation at best, but I find it interesting and kind of ties into the manufactured hillary popularity.

BTW from the news I have seen it has been the trump signs that have been taken down and pissed on .

originally posted by: cassp83
I think it's pretty obvious that the people who support Trump (for the most part) don't want to be outspoken about it. Because there is so much controversy surrounding him, the supporters support silently. I have a feeling that we are all going to be shocked when he wins by a landslide.

This is what I'm hearing within my personal political circles too. I mean, A LOT and I do mean, A LOT! of people who support Trump will NEVER EVER admit that they openly support him. Its taboo. This even goes on in families. This is also the so called "Trump Phenomena" that was discussed during the GOP debates. The silent majority so to speak. Lets face it, Trump rally's are filling entire Football stadiums with standing room only crowds and then thousands more outside not being able to get in.

.....people keep forgetting about this "Silent Majority". Its kind of like "Yeah, I see all of you Trump supporters who openly support him. But where are the Trump supporters that we DON'T see or hear about?" Well, those people will come out when its time to actually vote, because they support Trump silently out of fear of ridicule.

The privacy of being able to cast your vote in private helps with this even further. During a time in which both Candidates have lots of Pros and Cons, but more Cons then Pros, a lot of soul searching will be done the day these folks cast their vote. So in the end, it might not be as clear as we think it is right now, NO MATTER what the polls say in current time.

I think its POSSIBLE that America MIGHT be in for a massive shock (So will Trump, but he wont act like it) come November 8th. Will it actually happen? That is another story. So we'll see.

originally posted by: amicktd

originally posted by: RomeByFire

originally posted by: UKTruth
I think Trump is the last real hope to reverse the authoritarian and war mongering US. However, one has to be realistic in terms of the result. The sources in the OP are not accurate. The same source was way off in the GOP primaries. I remember they had Wisconsin going to Trump by something like 20 points! Does anyone REALLY believe a liberal city like NY is going to go to Trump as the OP's source says? No way.
This election is done, I'm afraid. What remains is a fight over the next 4 years to keep the movement alive, because Hillary's administration is going to go after any dissent. I'd be surprised to see sites even like ATS unaffected. Expect censorship, expect right wing news to vanish. Expect the IRS to ramp attacks on anyone who speaks out. Expect worse if censorship doesn't work.

Are you joking?

How is a man that "loves war," who is "great at war," who "has more military experience than everybody in the room... combined," who has supported the invasion/occupation of Iraq as well as Libya going to reverse war-mongering?

This clown is a draft dodger anyway. You people are delusional.

Well that's your belief with no facts to stand behind it. On the other hand you have Hillary who already supports what we're doing in the ME. Now she is railing against Russia over hacks she can't prove like we need to go to war with a superpower. At least Trump isn't using terrorist organizations to do his dirty work to make his special interests a boat load of money just for a large campaign/foundation contribution.

That's my opinion? Again - delusional. You clearly know little about Donald considering the whole "I love war," speech comes right out of his mouth and not a "MSM sound bite," or "my opinion."

Donald Trump's word not mine. He loves war. I do not. He loves war so much he's a draft dodger (lol).

As for your Hillary deflection not sure what you're getting at I can't stand the woman.

Trump loves war

Donald Trump flip-flops on issues such as Libya like other "career politicians"

How anyone could believe something that's entirely untrue such as Donald being "anti-war," I really do not understand.

]a reply to: DJW001

They are.
Link - 538 election prediction model

All versions of the model proceed through four major steps:
Step 1: Collect, weight and average polls.
Step 2: Adjust polls.
Step 3: Combine polls with demographic and (in the case of polls-plus) economic data.
Step 4: Account for uncertainty and simulate the election thousands of times.

They get into details too, for the most part.

I can't tell if you want him to succeed and amend the Constitution or if you are being sarcastic?? Sorry. Sleep deprivation.

originally posted by: defiythelie

originally posted by: Blue_Jay33
Notice the blue shrinking as time goes on.

ELECTION MAP YEAR

ELECTION MAP 1 - 3 Months

ELECTION MAP 2 Since September

I don't think these Trump outbursts and scandals and revelations are hurting him as much as the media is saying.
Should not more of the maps be turning Clinton blue if that were true ?
Instead Trump green is growing.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

FiveThirtyEight is by the same Bozo who gave Trump a 20% chance of winning the primary. Here are 7 times this idiot got things completely wrong about Trump.
dailycaller.com...

originally posted by: RomeByFire

originally posted by: amicktd

originally posted by: RomeByFire

originally posted by: UKTruth
I think Trump is the last real hope to reverse the authoritarian and war mongering US. However, one has to be realistic in terms of the result. The sources in the OP are not accurate. The same source was way off in the GOP primaries. I remember they had Wisconsin going to Trump by something like 20 points! Does anyone REALLY believe a liberal city like NY is going to go to Trump as the OP's source says? No way.
This election is done, I'm afraid. What remains is a fight over the next 4 years to keep the movement alive, because Hillary's administration is going to go after any dissent. I'd be surprised to see sites even like ATS unaffected. Expect censorship, expect right wing news to vanish. Expect the IRS to ramp attacks on anyone who speaks out. Expect worse if censorship doesn't work.

Are you joking?

How is a man that "loves war," who is "great at war," who "has more military experience than everybody in the room... combined," who has supported the invasion/occupation of Iraq as well as Libya going to reverse war-mongering?

This clown is a draft dodger anyway. You people are delusional.

Well that's your belief with no facts to stand behind it. On the other hand you have Hillary who already supports what we're doing in the ME. Now she is railing against Russia over hacks she can't prove like we need to go to war with a superpower. At least Trump isn't using terrorist organizations to do his dirty work to make his special interests a boat load of money just for a large campaign/foundation contribution.

That's my opinion? Again - delusional. You clearly know little about Donald considering the whole "I love war," speech comes right out of his mouth and not a "MSM sound bite," or "my opinion."

Donald Trump's word not mine. He loves war. I do not. He loves war so much he's a draft dodger (lol).

As for your Hillary deflection not sure what you're getting at I can't stand the woman.

Trump loves war

Donald Trump flip-flops on issues such as Libya like other "career politicians"

How anyone could believe something that's entirely untrue such as Donald being "anti-war," I really do not understand.

When did I say he is anti-war? I stated that the other choice already has a record to look at. You call it deflection, but that doesn't take away the truth behind what I stated. As far as I'm concerned, Trump isn't a war hawk until directly involved in one. How many terrorists has Donald armed? How many countries has Trump ripped apart with his foreign policy? I'll tell you....0!

originally posted by: FauxMulder

FiveThirtyEight is by the same Bozo who gave Trump a 20% chance of winning the primary. Here are 7 times this idiot got things completely wrong about Trump.
dailycaller.com...

Yep I posted that earlier in this thread along with proof that the two post debate polls that 538 used were horribly misleading, and I posted sources that showed how inaccurate scientific polls are.

But nobdoy seemed to want to comment on them.

a reply to: Byrd

As you have mentioned before, the Quinnipiac Poll is the gold standard.

Quinnipiac Polls - Oct 7th and 11th

a reply to: FauxMulder

And what were the other candidates chance of winning at that time? With approx 10 candidates, 20% is not a bad figure.

Trump supporters are in denial of how bad Trump is losing right now. My guess is they'll cry fraud after he gets spanked in the general election.

a reply to: BeefNoMeat

Quinnipiac has an over 4% Republican House Bias.

It ain't gold standard. No individual poll is 'Gold Standard'. Combined poll averages like Five Three Eight aren't 'Gold Standard' either. Internet polls where you can vote more than once aren't even a 'poll'. It has been demonstrated that something like 80% of the internet poll votes after the first debate came out of Russian 'votebots'.

Real 'scientific' polls are just guides to what the electorate trends are. And those trends as registered by all 'real' polls, are favoring Clinton by increasingly large margins. Trump is challenging Dukakis' performance, but it will be tough for him to match McGovern, though it seems he is trying to give it a good shake.

In truth there is only 'Gold Standard' poll - and that will happen in November.

a reply to: Grambler

RealClearPolitics.com show Clinton pulling away.....are you going to dismiss that as biased too?

Well no matter who is "winning" im pretty sure in the end we all lose.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: amazing

Johnson is not winning in any state.

No.

That's why I think these polls are skewed. None of them show Jill Stein, Castle or Johnson. They are taking a lot of votes. Also Johnson was Governor of New Mexico...he probably has some strong support there. Enough to at least give Clinton that state by taking all Trumps Conservative Support.

a reply to: rnaa

Applications for party ballots.

a reply to: interupt42
That's because Hillary represents the silent majority. She's the sensible candidate and the vast majority of voters detect it. The reason you hear from the Trump supporters so much is they have to scream louder to get attention, otherwise they're dwarfed by sheer numbers.

Mark my words, unless a major legal suit is made against her, large numbers of people are going to vote for her just to make sure Trump doesn't win. If you think all of the dirt dug up on Trump isn't hurting his campaign then you're living in a hole. His campaign isn't hurt, it's destroyed and he knows it--which is why he fired his manager just recently. The GOP is bailing because they know their candidate is a failure. If the rape lawsuit against Trump gets the spotlight and new evidence comes up, not only are his political ambitions out of reach but his career could be over and he might spend the rest of his life in jail.

EDIT: And you know he might go to jail for other reasons, like tax evasion or some other hamfisted crookery he used to play pretend billionaire.

My post might sound biased in favor of Hillary, but you have to understand I've dug up dirt on her too. From the email trouble, benghazi mishandling, frequent half-truths to support her narrative, questionable activities of the Clinton Foundation (including the fact only 15% goes to charity), her cheating husband who's history is well known and possibly darker than ever imagined, and her cold demeanor which doesn't win votes on its own.

Many of us had no desire to vote for Trump when he was in the primaries, but we gave him a chance. I was in this crowd. I liked Bush and Cruz and Rand Paul, but they didn't win. Trump took his victory and nomination and trashed it. He's anti-presidential and I'm ashamed he's going to be on the ballet regardless what happens now. It's too late to remove his name.

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: Grambler

RealClearPolitics.com show Clinton pulling away.....are you going to dismiss that as biased too?

Real clear politics takes a combo of polls. I would love to go through them all for you, but I am a little busy tonight. I would however ebncourage you to ask some questions when you read these polls.

Who were the people polled, and how do they historically vote.

Is the poll weighted, and if so what is the methodology for that weighting.

I checked one poll from today that real clear politics is using.

It claims Hillary is up by 7 points. Sound pretty damning, right.

Put look at who they polled.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Page 14 shows the political identity of those polled.

Democrats- 47% Republican- 31%

Thats right, a 16% difference in favor of HIllary. So they polled 16% more democrats than Republicans, and Hillary only won by 7%.

In other words, had the poll had an even amount of republican and democrats, Trump would be up by 9 points.

That is how misleading these polls are.