TRUMP is winning Check This Out !

Which polls? I ask because there have been a few lately that weren't counting Millennials or independents. Does this take into account the third party candidates. Johnson and Stein and Even Castle are going to get some votes. I just saw that Johnson was a possibility in one poll to win at least one state.

a reply to: Gin

That's a GREAT flowchart that explains why CNN is full of chit. Win or lose, I hope Donald Trump kicks off a movement to boycott products that CNN advertises. With all their high-paid talking heads and talking asses, PEOPLE POWER can shut that network down FAST, with just a 30% cut in advertising revenue. Make CNN like Kryptonite to advertisers.

a reply to: amazing

It is looking more likely that Johnson will carry New Mexico where he was governor.

The CEO of realclearpolitics was on Megyn Kelly and they were talking about Pennsylvania.He said it was like Lucy with the football and Charlie Brown.Every time the republicans think they can win it,the state gets pulled away.I would like to see Donald win it,heck to see it even in play would be nice.But I just don't see it happening.My 2cents.

originally posted by: Kapriti
a reply to: amazing

It is looking more likely that Johnson will carry New Mexico where he was governor.

Today, Rush Limbaugh said that according to poll aggregation, Gary Johnson is carrying 10% of the national vote. It's people who feel that neither Trump or Clinton are palatable.

originally posted by: Swills
a reply to: Blue_Jay33

Right. Because the rest of us who aren't conservatives really want a man as our leader who brags about sexually assaulting women. The same man who has a suit against him for raping a 13 y/o girl. You know, I thought you conservatives were sick and tired of perverts in the Oval Office? Funny how you all think men dressed as women will grope your wives and kids in bathrooms but belittle Trumps bragging to locker room talk, because he says so and by he I mean Breitbart, Fox News, and Wall Street Billionaire Robert Mercer.

Clinton has admitted to crimes that have put others in jail. The email hacks have shown illegal collusion. If the media is any indication then Trump is our only way out. It's shameful that we are left in this position because of years of collusion. Shameful that it came to voting for Trump or a nominee who has committed treason. You can thank the gutless media for that. They turned a blind eye and pretended to be unbiased.

Now we find ourselves on the precipice of world war because the Democratic party, for some insane reason, has picked up the torch and wants to invade sovereign nations. Complete lunacy that the left is supporting 4 more years of meddling in foreign affairs.

Our only hope left is to make nice with Russia and attempt to avert nuclear holcaust. Hillary has a nice deep bunker waiting for her if it happens, do you?

a reply to: Blue_Jay33

I know its only anecdotal evidence at best and not worth much but in todays technology era ,corruption and manipulation there is not much else to go on.

The anecdotal evidence from what I have seen appears to suggest that HIllary is a manufactured candidate.

During the Obama run there were Obama stickers and signs everywhere, I have seen literally only 1 for Hillary compared to last election and this appears to be an observation by many .

The Hillary rallys where are they? and are they filled?

The DNC having to manipulate the race for her to beat Bernie.

The MSM and their bias to make her look favourable.

I don't think I can make myself go and actually vote for trump and while I'm in the never hillary camp he does appear to have a real following. Good bad or indifferent.

originally posted by: Blue_Jay33
Notice the blue shrinking as time goes on.

ELECTION MAP YEAR

ELECTION MAP 1 - 3 Months

ELECTION MAP 2 Since September

I don't think these Trump outbursts and scandals and revelations are hurting him as much as the media is saying.
Should not more of the maps be turning Clinton blue if that were true ?
Instead Trump green is growing.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

a reply to: buckwhizzle

I'm amazed by so much this election. One item is how the head of these polling companies and poll-related companies have so much faith in their products, after being royally bamboozled during the 2010 and 2012 mid-terms.

This Presidential election is even more wacky. I drive 25 to 75 miles a day around the Chicago region and see ZERO Clinton and Trump bumper stickers. You can bet that pollsters are being lied to BIG TIME. Exit polls might be more accurate, but wicked CNN and MSNBC will find a way to spin those early in the day, towards Hillary.. regardless of what the voters tell them.

originally posted by: Kapriti
a reply to: amazing

It is looking more likely that Johnson will carry New Mexico where he was governor.

Not really.

He said the magic words too many of us want to hear: "I am going to start the prosecutions."

I'm sorry. American politicians deserve some serious jail time. If Trump's gonna drop the hammer ...

... he's in my book.

Trump ... Landslide ... Expect It!!

a reply to: interupt42


I saw a brief story today that said Hillary spoke to a "record crowd" in Ohio. But it never said what the size was, LOL. Maybe it was a room full of Record producers.

a reply to: carewemust

Or more people do not want bumper stickers on their vehicles. It can hurt the resale value if they cant come off cleanly. It does not mean less people are supporting the candidates.

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: Blue_Jay33
Notice the blue shrinking as time goes on.

ELECTION MAP YEAR

ELECTION MAP 1 - 3 Months

ELECTION MAP 2 Since September

I don't think these Trump outbursts and scandals and revelations are hurting him as much as the media is saying.
Should not more of the maps be turning Clinton blue if that were true ?
Instead Trump green is growing.

There's a real problem with their sample. I've used the site several times, so that means that you can answer multiple times. The respondents are self-selecting (people with access to computers) and most who go there are sent by friends and coworkers (who often have an agenda) It's also fun to retake the test and tweak the answers and see if things change. I've done that. So have others.

You need to consider instead polls that do NOT allow someone to answer more than once.

FiveThirtyEight takes the average of three polls; RealClearPolitics also presents multiple polls.

A reality check would include asking yourself how many big names have either stepped up or backed off their support of Trump. They are the most visible face of the party - and you can assume almost no Democrat will vote for him.

Stein and Johnson have locked up 15% or so of the vote, leaving 85% to be split between Trump/Clinton.
50% of all voters are women
Minorities (Asians, Blacks, Hispanics) are voting in higher percentages than Whites (several news stories... you can google for this and confirm it.)

Very few Blacks are voting for Trump
Very few Latinos are voting for Trump
A number of Republican women have said they won't vote for him (and a few have said they will vote for Clinton.)
Heck, even Glen Beck is considering voting for Hillary (I don't think he will, but he's denounced Trump and won't vote for him)

Now, compare that with the number of Democrat Senators who say they will vote for Trump (I don't know of any)
And the number of Blacks voting for Hillary
And Latinos...
And women...


So if the groups more likely to vote are moving away from Trump... I think that the 538 polls and RealClearPolitics polls are most likely predictive and the ISideWith polls reflect people taking it multiple times and sharing with friends and family.

I agree with all of your post except the part about 538.

They are garbage too.

They we pushing the two polls post debate fro CNN and you.gov and here is my thread that shows they are garbage.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Here is an article about how 538 has been unbelievably wrong about all polls dealing with Trump.

dailycaller.com...

Not to mention them and most of the so called scientific polls have been getting increasingly less accurate.

OVER the past two years, election polling has had some spectacular disasters. Several organizations tracking the 2014 midterm elections did not catch the Republican wave that led to strong majorities in both houses; polls in Israel badly underestimated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strength, and pollsters in Britain predicted a close election only to see the Conservatives win easily. What’s going on here? How much can we trust the polls as we head toward the 2016 elections?

Election polling is in near crisis, and we pollsters know. Two trends are driving the increasing unreliability of election and other polling in the United States: the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer surveys. Coupled, they have made high-quality research much more expensive to do, so there is less of it. This has opened the door for less scientifically based, less well-tested techniques. To top it off, a perennial election polling problem, how to identify “likely voters,” has become even thornier.

www.nytimes.com...

They had Romney winning in the last election and were wrong outside the margin of error. They had the brexit vote being stay by a landslide, and they were wrong.

And this isn't even to mention intentional skewing of the demographics of the people polled, where it turns out nore often than not the sample way more democrats than republicans, (as with the two polls I showed above).

So sure, the online polls are inaccurate, but so are the so called scientific ones.

And whats worse, the main stream media uses these polls to try to influence opinion. Remember when they all used the polls to show Trump was a joke and had no chance in the primaries?

These polls can convince people that there candidate is out of it, and thereby skew opinions.

And perhaps worst of all these polls are used to determine who gets to be in the debate. If I was a third party candidate, I would be furious that such a wildly inaccurate method is used.

a reply to: carewemust

Can help you with that.



But in reality:

a reply to: Grambler

And perhaps worst of all these polls are used to determine who gets to be in the debate. If I was a third party candidate, I would be furious that such a wildly inaccurate method is used.

I agree. I feel as though this country is long overdue for the emergence of a viable third party candidate.

originally posted by: Ksihkehe

originally posted by: Swills
a reply to: Blue_Jay33

Right. Because the rest of us who aren't conservatives really want a man as our leader who brags about sexually assaulting women. The same man who has a suit against him for raping a 13 y/o girl. You know, I thought you conservatives were sick and tired of perverts in the Oval Office? Funny how you all think men dressed as women will grope your wives and kids in bathrooms but belittle Trumps bragging to locker room talk, because he says so and by he I mean Breitbart, Fox News, and Wall Street Billionaire Robert Mercer.

Clinton has admitted to crimes that have put others in jail. The email hacks have shown illegal collusion. If the media is any indication then Trump is our only way out. It's shameful that we are left in this position because of years of collusion. Shameful that it came to voting for Trump or a nominee who has committed treason. You can thank the gutless media for that. They turned a blind eye and pretended to be unbiased.

Now we find ourselves on the precipice of world war because the Democratic party, for some insane reason, has picked up the torch and wants to invade sovereign nations. Complete lunacy that the left is supporting 4 more years of meddling in foreign affairs.

Our only hope left is to make nice with Russia and attempt to avert nuclear holcaust. Hillary has a nice deep bunker waiting for her if it happens, do you?

Not to mention this thread that show Hillary knew Saudi Arabia was finacing Isis, and not only took millions of dollars from them , but sent Bill clinton to meet with them and then sent peopel on her staff to work PR for the Saudis and cover up their crimes.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Hillary is helping ISIS. This ouitweighs anything Trump has done by far.

originally posted by: buckwhizzle
The CEO of realclearpolitics was on Megyn Kelly and they were talking about Pennsylvania.He said it was like Lucy with the football and Charlie Brown.Every time the republicans think they can win it,the state gets pulled away.I would like to see Donald win it,heck to see it even in play would be nice.But I just don't see it happening.My 2cents.

Last night at Trumps rally in a town of 40k over 15k people showed up.

In PA.

Whats that tell you?

I was at work in a factory where everyone supports Trump. The entire union.

Hillary is crushing him in terms of electoral college points and overall. Trump is in a tailspin.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Furthermore gambling sites are more or less giving Hillary a 4 to 1 advantage or 80% to 20%.

Not even Trump thinks he can win anymore. Which is why he quit trying at the last debate. He catered to his base and did not even try and expand it meaning he either saws it as hopeless or just does not want to win. I suspect he will continue to do so and then blame the GOP for his loss. Then he will take his small core group of supporters and sell them stuff, books, tapes, payper view etc. With his attacks on the GOP he will even likely lose several red states. The only real question is if the GOP can keep the house.